European Tour - Open de Andalucia - 15th-18th March 2012

[jimmywomble]

Hi all

The European Tour heads to Europe for the first time this year and the Open de Andalucia, hosted by Big Mig, Miguel Angel Jimenez. Defending champ is Paul Lawrie, but for the last 2 years it has been at the Parador de Malaga. This year it is back at the Aloha GC which hosted the first 2 versions of this and was won by Levet in 08 & Westwood in 07.

With the course not hosting since 2008 there it may not be completely relevant as plenty at the top of the betting were probably still amateurs when it last hosted, and fave Manassero was still at school. Only 2 players have top 10s in both years Michael Jonzon & David Lynn, with 15 from 16 rounds under par here. Jonzon was 4th in 07 & 6th in 08, but current form is poor with just 1 made cut in 3 this year a 73rd in Qatar. Whilst Lynn was 9th in 07, and a final round 74 in 08 stopped him finishing higher than 8th. Ok form with 17th, 47th & 57th in the desert swing, his 3 starts this year.

Runner up behind Levet in 2008 was a very young Oliver Fisher, that followed a 24th in 07. As a nobbly old 21 year old veteran he won his first event last year on tour and this year will want to move on from that. 12th is his best result so far back in January in South Africa, but has missed his last 2 cuts in Dubai and at the Avantha. Along with Jonzon the only player to have 8 rounds under par here.

However I think my pick will be Stephen Gallacher. He was 32nd in his only visit here in 08, where 2 rounds of 74 stopped him finishing higher. Played the 3 desert swing events where he finished up with a 2nd in Dubai, after a missed cut in Qatar & 35th in Abu Dhabi. 50-1 seems generous for someone with a good finish last time out.

Have heard on Sky Sports News that Paul Lawrie has withdrawn, he was one of the faves, as has Jose Maria Olazabal.

Cheers

Jimmy
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[gecko6]

pretty ropey field this week unfortunately... the euro website tries to big it up by claiming 3 major winners are in the field, namely weir, beem and campbell! hmmm

anyway, jimmy has mentioned lynn and jonzon who did well here both previous times but no reason to look at them really this week...

could be anyone's this event so will look for some decent value and keep stakes small probably - it's so open that the fav is about 20/1 and there are loads in the 40-100 range

tree lined course but apparently the rough isn't too severe at all so should be fairly easy to play; short at under 6,900 yards and the sort of course that will probably reward those accurate off the tee and who can find the right part of these slopey greens - thus the neater players should prosper although the longer hitters may find some really shot approaches on the par 4s especially as a lot of them are short indeed

rock bello and kruger are all in winning form so need considering, manassero is a huge talent of course and there are a few with the ability although perhaps not the mental stregth

the more I look at this the less I want to be involved lol...

GOYA > feeling bet really but showed well recently and improving nicely - won in 09 on tour in portugal so hopefully due a good week, 80 on Betfair

WATTEL> looks to have the ability and can putt - waiting for him to step on up a level and really compete and expect a possile debut win this yr on tour.. played well couple of times in spain last yr so hoping for a repeat effort and maybe an improvement - becoming v consistent without quite challenging, 60 is attractive

MANASSERO > opted for the young star instead of dubuisson who is a bit too wayward off the tee, MM should have the ideal game here and has the winning touch, win bet 25 Betfair

WOOD > improved a bit recently with 20th places twice, needs to drop a few putts as off the boil although GIR is decent, 60 Betfair

OLESEN > may be bit too wayward but is sinking putts.. good consistent form and really looks to be apotentially very good player... if he can keep it in play and not get too penalised then has good chance at nice 40 Betfair

expect rock, siem and other obvious ones to contend but this is really a pinsticker event

[carterbet]

4 for me

Joost Luiten - class act in my opinion and confidence will be higher after finally securing his first win at the end of last year. Has been off for a few weeks and working on his short game according to his tweets. Clearly likes Spain and leads the 'LOWEST 12 AVERAGE POSITIONS on MAINLAND SPAIN over the last 4 years' with an average of 23 according to the SkySports stat pack. Had 7 top 10s last year and has started 2012 in decent form with 4 cuts from 4 and finishing 17th on his last outing. 33/1

A Canizares - has been over to play in the Mayakoba since the European Tour took a sabbatical and finished T5. Likes playing 'at home' and has 9 top 25 finished in mainland Spain over the last 5 years. A real talent at this level in my eyes and a good ew bet at 50/1.

J Campillo - following Ben Coley on this one. Suffice to say he had a great amateur record in the US on the College circuit and finished 2nd in the Avantha on his last start. 80/1

David Lynn - was 8th and 9th here in the 2 years that this course was used so obviously fits his eye. Good recent form with 17th in Abu Dhabi and at the end of last season 17th in Dubai World Champs, 28th in Andalucia Masters and 3rd in Portugal Masters as well as 5 other top 10s. Has had 8 top 25s in mainland Spain over last 5 years and 50/1 looks reasonable.

Good luck all

[stamina]

As Already been mentioned by Jimmy Gecko and Carterbet. Jonzon and Lynn are the stand outs for me this week Both of them like this track when last use in 2008. 6th and 8th finishing position, 13th and 11th Putts per green ranking. Expected odds to be shorter
My other pick is Danny willet. back in 08 he was T19th but this could of been so much better as he was T2nd after round one only for a 75 in round two to drop him down the leaderboard. comes here this year with a top ten finish already when in contention at the Africa open. 33rd Last time out at the Dubai Desert Classic behind winner Cabrera Bello so is playing well. I am pleasantly surprise at his odds.

Jonzon Lynn Willet

Goodluck Guys

[Spicy1979]

Morning Sorry for delay.

Im on Gonnet as he played well a few weeks ago and think he could score well in not a great field.
Also like Levet as he is due a good tournament and good go well at a decent price.

[carterbet]

A nice place return with Lynn at 50s and well done stamina who was on too. Also well done Gecko for his Manassero pick.

I think that we can be forgiven for not finding the winner!

[robert611]

Well done to all who managed a return in a difficult betting heat