Horse Racing Friday 15/2 Chat Thread

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20175

HENRY THE AVIATOR around 2.88 on the exchanges tonight but seems to have been some support for it already into this price. Having swerved most of his runners recently, I quite fancy this one to win. Won't put in on selection thread at this price though Smile

Price has only come into 2.7 this morning so see how it goes. I backed it at 2.88+... so I hope it does at least remain below this.

Good luck today Win

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The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5593

6.00 Wolver' can pass a message on from the offices for Gabriels Hope the 8/1 at Bet 365 looks sure to go very quickly ! Fingers Crossed

liteonit · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 05 Nov 2009 Posts: 1108

With you on that one merlin. Was impressed with its debut and looked like a typical johnston horse, improve with extra dist. Also he has started many a good horse on the aw on its way to group company. 6/4 looks lovely.

Also noticed the Mccain yard coming back to form. They dont have a great strikerate at sandown with a 6% strike rate with hurdlers. However a 30% strike rate with its chaser reads well and therefore railway dillon in the amateur race stands out. Not a type of race to lump on but definately see this one right there at the finish, ny thoughts?[/b]

yeah baby · Group 2 Class Joined: 23 Nov 2007 Posts: 209

Hi all, looking for some info regarding a large sum of money being put on a horse today . Wolves 7.30 Grilletto. Just looking to see what peoples opinions are on it and if you know something I don't, any info appreciated thanks Shocked

deswalker · Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:07 am Post subject:

Very interesting looking Novice hurdle at 15:20 at Fakenham. Some useful looking prospects on display.

Viva Steve possibly ran into one lto and was himself 18 lengths ahead of teh 3rd placed horse. However, the strength of that race appeared questionable at the time and there has been no evidence to suggest otherwise since. Fatser ground shouldn't be a problem but on balance I'm against at the price.

Edmund Kean made a promising hurdles debut lto and has every right to improve for the extra distance. He will need to though and Unique de Cotte did nothing to advertise the strength of his hurdles debut form yesterday when unplaced.

Malapie won on hurdles debut lto and shouldn't be underestimated, but the form of that race looks iffy (I rate this one at about 113) and the ground conditions are a lot faster today.

Barney Cool split highly rated horses on hurdles debut back in November on the flat, right handed Kempton on Good to Soft ground (run rates about 126). He seemed not to enjoy the Softer going lto and if this run is excused (still decent form but not quite as good) he looks very much short list material.

Seedsman was as game as you like in defeat to the gambled on Bucking The Trend lto. He seems a solid stayer and looked to be better for softer ground. If he can recreate that form on this track on this ground (where speed will be more important) he could be in the mix, but I think that is a big if and I'll avoid... knowing that he is a possible danger.

Sound Investment lost out to Puffin Billy on debut over timber but the form behind is nothing to write home about. However, he confirmed any good impression by romping home lto in a fair maiden hurdle by 12 lengths (first time tongue tie). Its hard to know what to make of that race. Taking a literal line of form through Best Boy Barney's narrow defeat by My Tent Or Yours, this horse is the best Novice of the year! But that seems an exaggeration to say the least. I'd rather rate this around Lydtep Point and Hell's Spirit which pop up in the form a bit and I have as 108 and 100 respectively. That puts his last run at 125ish on soft, and a vast improvement on his first run.

So on balance I have this between Nicholls' Sound Investment and Barney Cool, and with conditions perfect for Pipe's runner I'll take it EW...

Good looking race though, very interesting.

Win

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liteonit · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 05 Nov 2009 Posts: 1108

looked through the race deswalker and looks a decent race. i was with seedsman, its form looks solid, along with the stable going well also. the trainer doesnt send many here, but the ones he does send run well with 60% strike rate in the last 5 seasons. Confused

deswalker · Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:15 am Post subject:

I was as well to be honest liteonit when I first looked at the standard of his form in comparison with the front 2 in the market! But Seedsman really looked an all out stayer lto, and I think there is more of an emphasis on speed here which favours Barney Cool.

His hurdles debut run shouldn't be underestimated and he could have been held back for better ground.

Win

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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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liteonit · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 05 Nov 2009 Posts: 1108

yes i can see where your coming from, will go for both, barney col for win and a placer of seedsman Smile

. the favourite is too short imo, maybe a short price due to stable.

the executioner was right about gabrials hope, took some money very quickly. maybe reacting to spencer flying from dubai yesterday. Can maybe read into it too much. cud be her for tomorrow, just getting a bit of practice ha :p

TheBooyRooney · Stallion Joined: 05 Apr 2010 Posts: 7353

in the 6.00 wolves race EX mentions,i like EL BRAVO.Heavily punted last time out ran ok but ran out of room on the run in.Connections have let it drift to 11-1 and it remains to be seen whether it will be off but will be watching the market with interest.
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Afcj89 · Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:43 am Post subject:

Although the price has drifted a fair bit, in the 15.20 I quite like the chances of Edmund Kean, won a point to point race last year over 3 miles and in his race LTO he was held up for most of the race. When the horse finally made his move it was too late to challenge the leaders and I read that he actually ran from the 2nd last to the finish, quicker than the eventual winner. That race was over 2 miles in Heavy conditions so should suit the 2m 4f trip today.

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20175

Henry is drifting.... think it will win though Laughing

I have Napped MOUNTAINOUS today in the 1.50. I think this has a great chance and I think the bookies' Bismark is Relax.
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TheBooyRooney · Stallion Joined: 05 Apr 2010 Posts: 7353

6.50 DUNDALK MISSILE COMMAND

Interesting money for this one.20-1 interesting as this is a reserve.well weighted.lets see if it gets in
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*SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG*
SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**