Horse Racing > Saturday 22nd Discussion

LIAMBO · Group 3 Class Joined: 14 Aug 2011 Posts: 74

going to ayr on saturday would welcome any thoughts on the gold cup....

Micko70 · Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:59 pm Post subject:

Liambo

The Bronze, Silver & Gold Cups are all taking place on Saturday.

The best of British finding the winners of all 3 races, if i have time later in the week i might do the 10 year trends for all 3 races
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LIAMBO · Group 3 Class Joined: 14 Aug 2011 Posts: 74

cheers micko....

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

I've backed Our Jonathan at 16-1 - looks to have a reasonable chance and downed the win part of my EW bets on Eton Rifles in last years renewal - if he can run to that form again from just a one pound higher mark then he would have every chance. Looks to be getting shorter all the time already in to 12-1 and can see him going off fav with Dr Koukash giving it a good word the other day.

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

Just noticed that Ayr is off today and inspection for 6.30 on Friday with the course waterlogged so you might want to take your wellies! Might be heavy ground so those horses capable of running on that will be the order of the day but check needed on the day of racing as to actual going.

deswalker · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:26 am Post subject:

Once these final decs are confirmed I am going to start getting a feel for all 3 races. Hopefully today is just a precaution to ensure that the ground holds up for the main events.

Fingers Crossed

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budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

OJ coming out of stall 12 just like last year.

From BHA site

AYR - Flat (Updated:20/09/2012 at 11:16:06)
Going
Heavy Standing Water
(GoingStick: 8.2 on Thursday at 06:30)

Stalls
5f & 6f Stands Side

Rails
Track at full width - distances as advertised.

Weather
Past 24hrs 9 mm rain. Steady Rain am
Thurs - Rain all day <8mm Clearing this evening 10c
Fri - Dry with Sunny intervals 13c
Sat - Sunny and Cold 12c

sellers01 · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 10 Oct 2007 Posts: 1021

have a few quid on wahylah and double with afkar saturday Wink

deswalker · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:52 pm Post subject:

First thought on Ayr Gold Cup is that Colonel Mak could be feasibly well treated back on easier ground.

Dandy Nicholls' runners are both very odd choices, both being surely better suited to further. He has had success in the race with horses that get further, but both seem to be mile specialists and I do wonder if something more subtle is afoot...

Confused

He lost Regal Parade from the barn earlier in the year, but I do notice that the ownership didn't change.
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budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

If the ground is soft which seems likely on Saturday then Effisio's, Pivotal's, Invincible Spirits and Choisirs the way to go in the sprints - there are a few of those about and some at tasty prices too.

sellers01 · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 10 Oct 2007 Posts: 1021

be interested on ppls view on CHEVETON in the bronze cup. to me looks nailed on for a huge run...loves ayr and will relish soft ground. his marks been fallin for two seasons now and good enough to win it. good bet for me

aidanldrebin · Legend Joined: 24 Sep 2007 Posts: 10830 Location: Surrey

Some interesting maidens tomorrow, not least the two divisions of the 7f maiden at Newbury.

Market Town will be popular in the 1.30 after his unlucky in running fourth behind Wentworth in the Convivial at York last month, but the Richard Hannon-trained Pivotal Movement is a newcomer of considerable interest in that race. He is a Pivotal first foal of a smart miler for the stable, selling for 280,000gns at auction; been given all the time he needs, and could well prove up to the task at the first time of asking. I will also be keeping an eye on Code Of Honour and Rockpool in that, albeit for nursery/handicapping purposes, with the latter qualifying after tomorrow's run.

The second division at 4.20 centres around Bright Strike, a John Gosden-trained colt who finished a place ahead of Market Town at York. However, Henry Candy runs a highly regarded son of New Approach by the name of Dalgig, and it's worth remembering that the stable sprang a surprise with Beauchamp Yorker on debut a couple of years back; could go well. Roger Charlton's duo of Liberty Jack and Patternoster are both gelded but boast likeable pedigrees, while Soul Intent is a John Hills-trained full brother to course and distance debut winner Jungle Beat; however, I'd be surprised if he was sharp enough to win on debut, and I imagine this will be the first of three fairly quick runs to get him handicapped for next year. Tom Dascombe's Noble Bacchus is a son of an Irish Oaks winner who needs one more run for a mark, and he could be interesting in nurseries once qualified.

There is also an interesting newcomer in the extended 1m maiden at Wolverhampton at 8.20 by the name of Interior Minister, a Mikael Magnusson-trained son of Nayef who is a half brother to useful 7-9f AW (including on debut at two)/Lingfield Oaks Trial fourth Apothecary out of a dual 10f winner from a good family. This colt held a couple of other entries in the week, including the Haynes, Hanson and Clark Conditions Race at Newbury, so he obviously shows something at home (handler very shrewd and wouldn't waste entries). He looks to have been found a winnable enough in which to debut and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see him go well on debut, for all he is the yard's first 2yo runner of the season and there is nothing to compare him with.

One other newcomer that deserves a mention away from maiden company is the George Margarson-trained Jammy Guest in the Tattersalls Millions Auction race at 2.45 at Newmarket. He is a son of Duke Of Marmalade and is apparently rated by his trainer as one of the most exciting prospects that has passed through his hands; obviously that wouldn't be saying much given what's gone before, but Rebellious Guest received similar quotes prior to making a winning debut last season and interesting to see how this colt fares against more experienced rivals; chance he will find 6f sharp enough on debut, though.
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