Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:06 pm Post subject: One a day comp for September
The following competition is simple. There will be one race picked at random each day and you have to try find the winner. Although with this comp rather than just typing the name of the horse you think will win you have to write up why you think they will win aswell.
Anyone who doesn't put in the effort and writes something like "I fancy X to win because he is white and they are faster", "I like his name", "my friend told me so" etc. etc. won't be considered nor will any copy + pasting from other sites.
YOU MUST INCLUDE AT LEAST 4 SEPERATE POINTS ON WHY YOU FANCY THE HORSE.
So what we're looking for here is for you to look at the race and come up with a selection. Then post the name of the horse and write a few lines which must consist of more than 30 words with at least 4 seperate points on why you fancy it and that's it.
* If you want you can enter a second selection (must have write-up also) just in case your first choice turns out to be a non-runner and you don't have time to post again.
* If a race hasn't been posted after the selected race, please feel free to do so. The race for that day must be completed.There is no time schedule
* You may not edit your post at any time. If your selection is a non-runner then just make a new post in the thread with your new pick.
* In the case of a selected race not going ahead due to a meeting being abandoned / unforeseeable circumstances then there will be two races selected for the following day instead.
* When selecting races, please refrain from MAIDENS/NOVICE events including BEGINNER CHASES as these can be difficult in placing a reasoning to.
* HANDICAPS and HIGHER CLASS races are the ones preferred.
To encourage people to look away from favourites aswell there will be bonus points for the price of the horse as shown above. This means that if someone picks a 2/1 horse that wins they will get 40pts (30 for winning and then 5 times 2/1 is 10 -> 30+10=40) while if someone picks a 10/1 shot that comes second they will get 50pts (20+30=50).
Joined: 03 Feb 2010
Location: Place by the sea..
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:50 pm Post subject:
A new month and new beggining..
Licence To Till
Gets distance, been placed 3 times in his last 6 starts.
Coming into form: Been placed in his last 2 starts,come 2nd last
time out,carrying bit too much weight that day, did well get placed.
Ground: Acts on any, has won on soft, has won once on good going.
and twice on gd to fm.
Jockey seems to have new jockey on board..
Distance: Loves this trip won six times.
Class: Has won two class 2 races, so loves this compan y.
Sure to ran well again, has a nice draw, and weight, and sneak into
the places with a nice sp..
Think I'll stick with one I backed last time, Cumani has his team in much better
form of late and this one has been running well from around this mark,
Was given a bit to do when last tried over this trip and was dropped to a mile
last time but was staying on again as if step was needed, Fallon takes over from
Hayley now and chooses this of the Cumani runners,Has gone well on both fast
and soft ground so no worries there, he also does very well with 4yr+ here so
hopefully runs well,
Out 8 times with a win 1st time out Exacatly 1year and a day ago to day to get distance win. Has ran 2 good class 2 races last 2 times out improving more last time out then 2 runs ago. Came 8th of 19th in further distance then today at odds of 40/1 so ran better then odds showed. Only 8 lengths away from 1st where he came 29 lengths away from 1st 2 euns back in a 14 horse race and coming 9th but was even further distance when 9th at 14 furlong instead of 12 furlong last time out. Blinksers for 1st time and Luke morris rides for 1st time and is lower weight he has been for all 8 runs of 8-3. Luke Morris needs to improve of late but when wants to he can ride them as only had 3 wins out of 29 in last 7 days but last win was on 31st of the 8th on solar view where he ran well and won easy. He had 3 runs yesterday and 2 bad runs out of the 3 but was on outsiders for the other 2. With the horse running well and 1st time blinkers and can do distance and lower weight then last time out and coming a good 8th in a large field, Luke morris might be able to make him wim.
GL ALL _________________ I stake low on bets.(Real Life)
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
Running off his lowest weight on Turf to date having shown not the best form on Turf, but I remember his making his turf debut earlier this season at York when he was never seemingly put in the race and then his recent run at Ascot when he finished 3rd shows a hint of ability. Tomorrow will only be his 3rd run at 10 furlongs and he has already twice finished placed over the distance, both times when running off a higher rating. He is trained by M Johnston who has hit good form through August which is the 1st time since he has hit good form since Colour Guard was last seen winning, which makes my think that while the yard has been in average form Colour Guard has been running to get his handicap mark down for a better race and he now sneaks into a race which will be his biggest prize he has raced for off bottom weight. As always it is hard to judge the jockey bookings with Johnston horses, but out of the 3 jockeys riding for him in this race, Hitchcott is the only one to have ridden more than 1 winner for him. I know that we’re not meant to use other ratings as a basis for our selection, but I’ll use it as addition information that Colour Guard is 2nd only to the Top-Weight on Top speed ratings for this race which adds to my belief that we haven’t seen the best of this horse
Top quality handicap to try and find a selection that will give you a winning result. A race that has intrigued me throughout the season is a race from Newbury which was won by Captain Bertie over eight furlongs and on soft ground. The reason for me liking this race from, near on the beginning of the flat season, in April, is the form has been working out, with some impressive results. This leads me to a horse that ran in this race and finished down the field in 12th place of the 22 runners that took part LABARINTO, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden today by George Baker. LABARINTO has only raced twice this season and his last race at York behind Gatewood and beaten over 44 lengths, reason for a mammoth defeat, he lost his position and Ryan Moore eased up to a near on walk, possibly, thinking something wrong with the horse, as he has had a long break since then. Strangest thing about the Newbury race, with form franking the race, winners are appearing from this race once again, we had The Tichborne a 33/1 runner and a position of 19th from that race came out yesterday and won. Maverik who finished in eighth place and was a few lengths in front of my selection won at Epsom, four days ago. Karaka Jack only raced today at Thirsk and was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths and a nose into third place and giving weight away. LABARINTO has still to get passed Fulgur who beat him as a three year old at Newmarket and there was three pounds the difference, like it is today. With Fallon riding the other Cumani horse, this could indicate that Luca has the beating of Sir Michael’s horse with Indian Jack. With Indian Jack being a strong factor, we can look at his form with the Newbury race in view with the shape of Cruiser who beat him at Kempton, as Cruiser was well behind LABARINTO in 17th place. With Ryan Moore on the injury list, Sir Michael Stoute has required George Baker to ride this four year old, who runs in the all conquering owner. As LABARINTO has not run for over 108 days, he could be fresher than most and could have a willing attitude for his connections on his visit to a racecourse for some time. George Baker will have to get the holdup tactics right and this being a big field of seventeen runners and drawn in stall fourteen he will have to bury his mount at the back of the field and hopefully find the necessary gaps to make a move to get into contention for a good run. 14/1 is on offer at present and could be a good price to play at, conditions of the race looks suitable, he has only raced the ten times so far and has two wins to his name and one of them was over this distance
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Location: VAS LEGAS
Cash Winnings: 1615
Free Bets Won: 150
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:27 pm Post subject:
I'll go with Nelix's WIM
Main reason for selecting this one is he fits the bill for following 1st time blinkered runners, in that he is a 4yo running over 10f or longer.
Showed plenty of promise last year, making a winning debut, despite still looking green in the process.
Followed that up with a couple of runs in conditions races, not totally disgraced against some highly rated runners, especially given his lack of racecourse experience.
Started out this year with a handicap rating of 95, now down to 83.
All his runs since his debut win over 10f, have been over longer trips, now dropping back to 10f, which along with the blinkers, could make all the difference.
USUALLY RUNS UP TO FORM AND GENERALLY IS THERE AT THE FINISH,STAYING ON WELL OVER 8F LTO STEP UP TO 10F SHOULD SUIT,DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN HIS FAVOUR,KIERON FALLON IS IN GOOD FORM 23% IN THE LAST 14 DAYS STABLES HORSES ARE RUNNING WELL 32% SAME PERIOD,BOTH TRAINER AND JOCKEY HAVE GOOD RCORDS AT SANDOWN.
Although a young horse and reletively more inexpierienced than most of these i do think Valliant races like a horse that knows the job in hand mind you forgetting about his last run which i think was over an inadequate trip. Now in a handicap with a very lenient mark could well be good enough, has had a nice break and Haggas rarely puts a horse in unless he thinks it can win. This is his distance and if Buick can get him in a good position im sure he will have the speed at the finish to be challenging albeit a bigger field than used too but sometimes that helps with these younger horses. So mark, distance ,jockey and ground i think will suit all looking in his favour. NB Start Right
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