Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:18 pm Post subject: HORSE RACING THURSDAY - DISCUSSION
The way the Yorkshire Oaks has been priced tomorrow looks very interesting. The Fugue deserves to be favourite after her win in the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but was she really that superior to Coquet in the Epsom Oaks back in June when the Hughie Morrison-trained filly endured a nightmare passage? Ditto Was, who hasn't really stamped herself as the leading three-year-old middle distance filly following her win at Epsom, the form soundly reversed by The Fugue last time at Goodwood. I fully understand the the ground/trip are legitimate excuses for her failure to fire the last twice, but she did have a charmed run in the Oaks compared to some and may just have been flattered on the day.
In fact, it does appear that the three-year-old fillies this year are much of a muchness. Just look at Great Heavens, who was a maiden at the beginning of the year and is now all of a sudden one of the top performers in her division. It begs the question: why is Coquet such a big price in relation to Was, Shirocco Star and The Fugue? She was desperately unlucky not to finish a whole lot closer to all three at Epsom, and unless she has had an interrupted preparation heading into this (cannot imagine they would be running her if she had), I can see no reason why she won't run a big race tomorrow, particularly as both Shirocco Star and Was were well-placed on that occasion whereas as this suffered a wretched passage, neither nailed on to confirm the placings.
Shareta could be the bigger problem, and last year's Arc runner-up appears to be gradually working her way back into form this term; looks an obvious threat to one and all now facing her own sex. The ground has surely gone against Wild Coco, who also has the 'bounce' factor to deal with after a quick reappearance following on from her comeback win at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago.
Interested to hear what others think about this/the race in general? _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
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Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:14 pm Post subject:
I would warn against complacency when writing off Was, given the fact that Dancing Rain was labelled similarly after making all in The Oaks last year, and since proved herself to be genuine Group 1 class. She probably wanted further than she got in the Nassau, and might have had the ground against her at The Curragh... maybe...
However, I don't think that last year's Oaks was quite as messy as this year's (with the possible exception of Blue Bunting and Dettori's "misjudgement"), so it seems reasonable to oppose her in this type of company.
I am pretty sure that The Fugue is no kind of price here at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her drift between now and the race, given how well she picked up over the shorter trip lto. I would also agree that it does seem strange to see both of the Hughie Morrison horses quite so large in the market, given how well matched they are with the others from the Classic generation.
However, I think that Wild Coco is looking like the one for me at the moment at the prices. It wasn't the strongest race she won lto but the style of the victory was impressive, and given that she didn't have anything like the hardest of races in doing that I am happy to forget the possible bounce. 15/2 seems reasonable.
_________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
I'd been keen on Was as definite Each Way value on these figures, and punters hopefully won't be put off by the fact that Heffernan rides only because Joseph O'Brien can't make the weight.
I think I'll be siding with Shirocco Star though who's put in the third and fourth best figures and at 10's is superb value for a quality horse who battles well. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
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Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:45 am Post subject:
Down to 3 for the mile handicap at York today (15:05);
I fancy that Indian Jack still has more improvement in him for Luca Cumani, he was given far too much to do over 10f lto and previous form on Good ground suggests a horse with more to give. 14/1 around.
Invisible Man is a regular in this type of race and hardly ever seems to put in a bad performance. I'm certainly not saying that he's stunningly well handicapped but we know that he loves the conditions that he gets in big fields and placed in the Royal Hunt Cup for the last 2 years off higher marks, which is a lot of positives for a horse who is 14/1.
Lastly, a bit of a monkey who is the apple of his trainers eye in Vainglory. Again, I'm not expecting him to have untapped potential nowadays but he does seem to be thriving of late (2nd to Trade Commisioner at Sandown high class form). The way the race panned out at Goodwood wouldn't have suited but this should be better for him and he gets on well the course and distance. He may have only been 6th in this last year but he was given a bit too much to do, and possibly should have been closer. 25/1 is readily available.
The three can be backed for a 9/2 dutch and that looks a fair bet to me.
_________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
2.00 York the favourite has been taken out and having trended the race using various filters, I am left with three horses. All three have solid claims on subjective form analysis and general profiles, so I will be hoping the day gets off to a good start with a split bet on:
An alert horse of mine, Shahdaroba,runs in the big sprint race on the first race of the card at York. There is obviously a few more classier types than him in the race with probably better chances but at 50/1 i can't resist not having a little wager. He does have some positives for sure. He receives an 11lb swing in the weights with fav Rocky Ground for less than a 4 length defeat in the Weatherby's Super Sprint. Has good form when only beaten by a couple of lengths by Sir Prancealot and Ask Dad on first two efforts. Ground will be in his favour today i should think also.
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Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:42 am Post subject:
Just a boost to Aidan's selection really, but James Fanshawe has only ever sent 20 juvenile runners into Class 1 company and returned with 5 winners including 2 from 2 at this course, which have both been at the festival.
He hasn't sent any since 2007 though, but I'm inclined to think that's because he didn't think any were good enough.
Only 7 of his 20 juveniles in this class finished more than 5 lengths behind the winner so I think he places them in this class pretty well. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
Im with Abhaath in that race Merlin with Darren Egan on board, decent young jockey IMO - promising debut for this yard after switch from Ed Dunlop when 20-1 fourth at Kempton (7f) and built on that when scoring over same trip at Wolverhampton on Monday (well backed); (Well backed again today) 6lb penalty to contend with but placed off higher marks for old yard and could go close if seeing out stiff 1m. I think this could be going off more around 3.75 mark come quarter to 2
Thanks Ian. The two catching my eye are at bigger odds - ESSEL and CHARITABLE ACT. Essel has run well here on a couple of occasions off higher marks and it should not be far away today (recent run questionable in terms of the ground and distance so I can forgive) and drops down to 57. Then Charitable Act is really starting to look on an interesting mark (70), having twice demonstrated that it can go within 5-7l off a mark of 79 and it's been campaigned in classier races than this one.
Good luck with yours, I'll have split on these two in some capacity I think
The weaver shark on ATR likes Charitable Act so
Last edited by merlin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Just put my Selections up on the selections thread for anyone who would like a look and going too take dog for quick walk before awesome days racing I love York, hope I can get a winner today
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