This looks a very good renewal of the Lowther Stakes which brings together a fascinating mix of proven performers and maiden winners with a good deal of potential now making the step up, with the leading juvenile filly of 2012 reappearing after her romp at Royal Ascot - previous winners of this race in recent times include Queen's Logic, Russian Rhythm, Carry On Katie, Nahoodh, Lady Of The Desert and Hooray.
The selection is a daughter of Acclamation who is a full sister to Group 3-placed 6f 2yo winner Full Mandate and a half sister to Group 3-placed 6f 2yo winner Danidh Dubai, useful dual 6f 2yo winner Invincible Ridge and quite useful UK/Qatari 5-6f winner Ridge Wood Dani, out of a useful triple 6f winner who was a half sister to smart 7f-1m winner (including at Group 3 level) Blomberg. This nicely bred filly is trained by James Fanshawe and made her debut outing in a well-contested 6f fillies' maiden at Doncaster towards the end of June, going off a not unsupported 8/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field under a patient ride, making smooth progress on the far side from over two furlongs out to move into contention, leading on the bit approaching the final furlong and staying on well for hands and heels throughout the final furlong to fend off the challenge of Diaminda to score by half a length. It was a visually impressive debut display from this filly, not least because she hails from a yard whose youngsters invariably improve plenty for their initial outing, and the form has received several significant boosts since via wins for the runner-up, third and fourth. The time was also the fastest clocked of the four races over that particular distance on the day (including a pair of sprint handicaps for older horses), and the manner in which this daughter of Invincible Spirit travelled into the lead was extremely impressive (ridden hands and heels all the way to the line, even when strongly pressed inside the final furlong); takes a steep rise in class against more experienced/proven rivals here, but possesses any amount of potential on the evidence of that debut win and absolutely no surprise to see her bridge the gap at the first time of asking; stable won this back in 2004 with Soar.
The John Gosden-trained Newfangled is a daughter of New Approach who served notice of her abilities right away when making a winning debut in a good 6f fillies' maiden at Newmarket (July) back in June, travelling strongly throughout close to the action and forging clear inside the final furlong once asked for her effort to come readily clear, scoring by an emphatic 4½ length margin over well-fancied favourite and next time out winner Fleeting Smile. She marked herself down as a top notch prospect when landing the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot a fortnight later, going off the 7/4 favourite beforehand; found herself at the head of affairs through keenness but was still able to make all and last out, drawing clear inside the two furlong marker and staying on well to see off Agent Allison by 2½ lengths. It was a hugely impressive display from this daughter of New Approach, keen and finding herself making all as a result, and that she was able to last out against some useful rivals in rain-softened ground was very much to her credit. She has been kept back purposely for this race since and remains one of the top juveniles in the land, for all she has yet to prove herself on ground this lively; form of her Albany win solid enough (one or two in behind have disappointed since), and it would be something of a surprise if this filly couldn't go close as she seeks to land a hat trick en route to the Cheveley Park Stakes next month.
The Mark Johnston-trained Baileys Jubilee is a daughter of Bahamian Bounty who was forward enough to win a couple of 5f events at Kempton and Newmarket in April, doing so impressively on both occasions, but she disappointed badly when upped in grade for a 5f Listed contest at the Dante meeting next time when only sixth behind subsequent Queen Mary winner Ceiling Kitty (2/5 market leader). She was one of a few who went off far too fast when fading into seventh behind Sir Pracelot in the National Stakes at Sandown next time and could only manage 13th place in the Queen Mary behind old rival Ceiling Kitty after that, appearing as though she had already peaked. However, she dispelled that theory with a good effort when third behind City Image in a 6f Listed contest at Newmarket (July) next time, and returned to winning ways when landing a 5f Listed Race over in France next time at the chief expense of Faithfilly (herself a Listed winner since). Her latest effort saw her finish second behind the smart Mazameer in the 6f Group 3 Prix de Cabourg at Deauville, challenging from over a furlong out and sticking to her task well throughout the final furlong without being able to match the winner, coming home a head adrift at the line. It appears as though a step up to this distance has brought about some improvement, that after it appeared she had reached the limit of her ability of the minimum distance after a midfield finish in the Queen Mary; more exposed than some and could well be vulnerable to an up-and-comer, but sure to give her running and ought not to be too far away.
The William Haggas-trained Rosdhu Queen is a daughter of Invincible Spirit who made a winning start to her career when landing a 5f maiden at Ripon in July, going off a well-fancied 7/2 chance and duly living up to market expectations, leading the group down the near side and leading overall, going easily and coming clear from over a furlong out, staying on well to score by 2¼ lengths from Bachotheque. She followed up in good style when contesting the 5f Listed St Hugh's Stakes at Newbury last week, going off the 11/10 market leader; raced prominently from the outset and travelling strongly once again, ridden over a furlong out and showing a good attitude throughout the final furlong to fend off Sound Of Guns to score by ¾ length at the line. The manner in which she has travelled throughout both of her races to date has impressed, finding plenty for pressure last time when landing a Listed contest at Newbury, also shaping on that occasion as though she would find this additional furlong within her reach. The obvious concern would be the fact that she only raced six days ago and had a hard enough race, so it remains to be seen whether that has left its mark or not; however, she is 2-2 and clearly rates as a smart prospect and entitled to be in the shake up if over last Friday's exertions.
The David Brown-trained Pearl Sea is a daughter of Elusive City who shaped with a good deal of promise in the same 6f fillies' maiden at Doncaster in June contested by the re-opposing Badr Al Badoor, sent off a well-fancied 4/1 chance and making good progress on the far side from the two furlong marker from a fair way back, staying on throughout the final furlong under mainly hands and heels to take third behind the aforementioned Badr Al Badoor (beaten 2¼ lengths). Her next outing saw her contest a traditionally strong 6f fillies' maiden at the Newmarket July meeting a couple of weeks later, going off a 5/1 chance; led two other rivals over on the far side early before taking a prominent position once the group merged with the main one down the centre, ridden to lead approaching the final furlong but proving absolutely no match for subsequent Group 3 winner Certify, going down by 3 lengths at the line. She made it third time lucky last time when landing a 6f fillies' maiden at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago, going off a very well backed 11/8 favourite; raced over on the far side of the field in a prominent position, taking over going well passing the two furlong marker, shaken up approaching the final furlong and staying on strongly to see off Malilla by 3 lengths. It was an impressive performance and well deserved victory for this daughter of Elusive City, unlucky to bump into subsequent Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes winner Certify at Newmarket the time before but making no mistake last time at Goodwood, travelling strongly once again and getting the job done nicely. The runner-up gave the form a timely boost by winning a decent contest at Newbury last weekend, but it must be remembered that this filly was a couple of lengths behind Badr Al Badoor when the pair met on debut; done plenty since to think that she can be a major player in this, but needed three bites of the cherry to get off the mark and no real reason why she should reverse debut placings with the selection now despite subsequent achievements.
The Ralph Beckett-trained City Girl is an Elusive City daughter of Lochridge who shaped with a good deal of promise on her debut outing in a 5f fillies' maiden at Salisbury in late June, sent off a well-fancied 13/8 market leader and racing prominently throughout, drawing clear with the eventual winner from over a furlong out and losing out by a neck to Jollification at the line. She was turned over at odds of 1/3 in terrible conditions at Ffos Las next time in a 5f median auction maiden, attempting to make all but headed approaching the final furlong and eventually ending up coming home 2¼ lengths adrift of Blackdown Spirit at the line. However, she was able to get off the mark at the third time of asking when landing a 6f fillies' maiden at Lingfield at the end of last month, for which she was sent off the 8/11 favourite; tracked the leading pair until moving closer down the back straight, ridden approaching the final furlong and leading at the furlong pole, shifting right for pressure but keeping on well to score by 1½ lengths from Spicy. She is a well-bred filly who put behind her an odds-on defeat in very testing ground to land an all-weather maiden in workmanlike fashion last time; interesting connections are willing to fast-track into this sort of company already, but not achieved the level of form even by her fellow maiden winners, let alone those successful at a higher level, and surprising if she were to prove good enough here despite looking the part on pedigree. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Posts: 2905
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:08 am Post subject:
3:40pm York - SHIROCCO STAR
Improved a great deal this year, and she's pretty much ran true and given a good run in all 4 starts this year unlike her rivals who have been up and down.
She was just beaten by Was in the Oaks with The Fugue who had a troubled passage just behind her and Coquet further back. She then kept up that form by just finishing behind The Fugue in the Ribblesdale Stakes with the winner Princess Highway going clear. Her last race she reversed the form with her conqueror's from her previous two races with a good 2nd to Great Havens with Princess Highway and Was behind in third and fourth.
Should be a true run race with a small field and easy track, so no horse should have any excuses. She's a game horse and has solid Group 1 form closely matched to The Fugue and Was who are both well shorter in the market. Shareta represents a big danger, but I think she's vunerable to one of the 3yo's as an improver. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
HOTOTO 2 00 watched this lto at goodwood it said good grd but they did kick a bit up ,is a lot better on a fast surface and breeding says will inprove for the step up to 6f stable won this last year and as big chance any veiws on the draw
3 00 ANDERIEGO NAP[u] this is the best bet of the day for me if you watch this horses last 2 runs here you see why loves it here likes the grd carried 9.4 to win in this class in good times fallon on e w to nowt imo 7/1 from 10s
4 50 WHIMSICAL i dont know what hughse thought he was doing lto traveled well when had to come round the field and he thought he would win easy and they drew clear and still didnt go for it amadaouse wolf tone is no slouch i expect a more posative ride today grd perfect and will need to make amends another ew
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Posts: 2905
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:39 am Post subject:
2:00pm York
There have been 10 Class 2 mixed juvenile races at the Ebor festival since 2005 with 156 runners involved.
7 of the 10 winners were priced 9/1 or lower from just 36 out of the 156 runners. So 70% of winners have come from a price range that accounted for just 23% of the field.
6 of the 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out from just 55 of the 156 runners. So 60% of winners have come from a 35% of the field.
Whilst Colts have provided 6 of the 10 winners, they have done so from 119 of the runners. Compare this to Fillies with 2 wins from 20 runners and Geldings with 2 wins from 17 runners, and it may be wise to overlook the colts in favour of these.
In the sprints at York, the draw bias would suggest you prefer your horse to be drawn low who have 8.5% strike rate rather than middle at 7.7% or high's 6.9%. Although it must be said despite the weaker strike rate the high draw returns profit better than middle meaning bookies are lenient on the odds for those drawn high, so you shouldn't overlook them by any means.
(York 5-6f Races: 77 with an average field of 13 runners and average winner drawn 6.7)
Taking these into account I fancy the chances of BODY AND SOUL
the shortest price filly in the race at around 8/1. Last time out she got the better of Satsuma who finished decently in the Queen May before that and similarly Momalorka who has since ran well in a Group 3 despite perhaps not being suited by the step up in trip either.
In her penultimate race she beat a few decent horses with 2nd place Forray fairing ok in a couple of Class 3 handicaps, whilst 3rd placed Lady Ibrox won a Class 2 before finding Group 3 class just out of her reach. 4th and 5th have also won next time out in Class 3 Nurseries, now rated 82 and 81 respectively. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
2.00 Woodlands Mill E/W, my selection beat Ceiling Kitty, in March and that horse went on too win top class class 1 races at Ascot and York so the form is good form if forgive Woodlands Mills, efforts since then and todays fast surface should suit as my selections win and a second were at Kempton wich favours horses that tend too prefer faster ground and also P Hanagan teams up with his old trainer and we all know how good that combination is and the yard are also in good form and this horse is a nice big price and is overpriced if you ask me and has everything in it's favour today ground jockey stable form and is well worth a e/w punt and might even win.
2.30 City Girl E/W, another horse wich look's overpriced and I think is a good e/w bet is this Ralph Beckett horse it has not had a bad run so far and coud be open too further improvement now on the quicker surface as its sire Elusive City liked the ground fast so today's conditions could be ideal I expect a big run for my money.
3.05 Crown Counsel NAP and Kahruman,
Crown Counsel, I backed this horse last time and was gutted it finished second and got beat by a horse who had shown nothing in the past so was very annoying but crown counsel was comfortably clear of the rest of the field and has dropped in the weights today and look's well treated I think and it has a good draw today and it has it's fast ground and a top jockey Luke Morris on board and I think this is one of the best bets of the day and is my NAP, but if anything does go wrong I have chucked in a good alternative who should not be far away Kahruman, is improving all the time and look's a nice type it, the soft ground will have been against it last time and would forget about that race back on a sound surface should go very close today.
3.40 Was and Coquet
Both nice prices and both very nice horses Coquet was very unlucky in running in the Oaks everything went wrong it was badly hampered and smashed out too the back as a result of that and then still managed too rally and get back intoo sixth an and if the trouble had not have happened it would have finished alot closer and it likes quick ground and is not out of this race has every chance and Was, should also not have a problem with the ground and was hampered when Shirocco Star, finished ahead of it in Ireland and might have finished ahead if had not met trouble and I think has every chance some of the others like The Fague, the ground is a big worry.
4.15 Dane Street and Bite The Cherry
Michael Bells horse won this race last year and he has Bite The Cherry this year who I think has a very strong chance, it will stay all day and loves the ground won on fast last time and comes here in good heart and my second selection still look's unexposed plus Buick is a very interesting jockey booking for Dane Street and anything that lad rides has too be taken seriously, this horse could be anything and could go well at a rewarding price.
4.50 Bunraken, for the Charlie Hills yard interests me a lot its only raced on soft and I dont have a clue if this one will like the fast ground or not but I am going too take a chance it has been running and even won on ground it doesent like and will improve a lot on this fast ground I am hoping the horses is still unexposed and the trainer doesent have a bad record here and I think it's the trainers only runner here today unless I have missed one and at 20/1 is a good E/W bet at small stakes.
My NAP bet today is going to be in the final race at Ffos Las, the Jonjo O'Neill trained Rollinrollinrollin. Who is the only horse in this field to have won a race in 2012.
Now there are a few question marks over her head, best run came on soft ground. Today the ground is good and she was also pulled up last time out, which was strange.
I have no doubt though she is by far the most talented horse in the race and as this is still only early in her career, I'll stand by her for a few starts. Back down to 16 furlongs today, where her first win came at this trip.
If nothing is amiss today and she goes ok on the ground then this could be a demolition job! McCoy in the saddle again, should finish the day in style _________________ Love Outsiders...Hate Favourites
Undoubtedly this isn't much of a race and the one horse that stands out with a bit of scope is Lacarmic.
A winner and placed last season in Irish point to points, his new trainer tried him in a 2m 6f beginners chase at this track and he performed ok in finishing second to a 120 rated horse.
Lacarmic looks sure to be better suited by the extra mile on offer today and most of his opponents seem to find plenty of reasons to get beat. Top Irish Amateur Derek O'Connor comes over for the ride and he is in great form at the moment, winning three out of his last six rides.
Kilvergan Boy does try hard but is very, very slow. He can usually be relied upon to make the frame and has won three of his 25 starts over fences. However, he is usually overtaken by anything with a shade of pace and hopefully that will be Lacarmic today."
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