York Ebor meeting

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

I'm going to focus on the first day and first up Frankel. I've got a feeling he will win so he's my banker for the meeting Laughing

. Seriously we could see something spectacular here and I've had a small bet on him winning by 9+ lengths at 15/8. This has been his race for a long time and with his next target likely to be on 20th October and with his owner sponsoring the race we might see something scintillating - no reason to hold him back in this race. Sri Putra might be a play at 5-1 (50-1 as I write) for the EW part of a bet right now given he is 5-1 for 3 places and the possibility he might be better suited to the likely fast ground than Planteur and Farrh. His beating of Asfare now reads ok and he is a sporting bet in the race given ground conditions and trip are in his favour compared to others and an AP bet now guarantees 3 places.

I had a smallish bet on Thomas Chippendale at 37 on Betfair for the St Leger and hope for a good run for him to contract his price further for a free bet. Ryan Moore up and I expect him to beat Noble Mission, Encke and Thought Worthy but whether he can beat Main Sequence giving 3lbs I don't know. I'll be having a good look at them in the pre parade ring as the AoB horse last year was a definite Lay on looks last year (Seville). I only see TC moving in a few points if he comes 1st or 2nd but that 37 looks ok at the moment with a view to laying off.

In the Acomb I quite like Ebn Arab but I was hoping that Dundonnel didn't run as I had it between the two.

Tax Free runs in the first race - good run at Ripon - can he follow up 4 days later at 5fs??

UnderdogsLover · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:29 am Post subject:

Frankel will have a tough match, defending his
unbeaten record.
Well done owners for stepping up extra 2f, so Frankel
can have a tough match.
Twice over for me Each Way. Is a c/d winner, won it last year.
Could go close again.

My favourite day, is the Tote Ebor Smile

, used to like it running
on Wednesdays, now its Saturday, so waiting till bout friday
be for have small flutter on that, an te post bit too risky Cool

Anyway have couple id like in the race, but wait nearer the race. Yes

opie75 · Group 2 Class Joined: 12 Mar 2012 Posts: 185

Frankel will win, but the winning distance is the market im more than likely to get involved in. Cant see him winning quite as easily over this longer distance against St Nick. Im of the opinion St Nick is a much better animal going left handed and altho im sure he is better over slightly further it would take something spectacular from Frankel to win by over 6 lengths in this field.
Im surprised the Acomb and Voltigeurs fields are so small but still not easy to pick the winner in either race but in the Acomb the one ill be siding with will be Dundonnel. Ran a race full of promise first time out behind impressive winner that day and had one of todays rivals a couple of lengths behind (alfonso desousa). Next time out Dundonnel hacked up by wide margin at Lingfield smashing their long time held course record.
The Voltigeur looks tough to call with reasons to back most of the field, the one that will be getting my attention tho is Main Sequence. Looked very unlucky last time out in a group 1 over in France behind Imperial Monarch. With small field here there shouldnt be any hard luck story's and with a trouble free run think he should be too good for this talented bunch.

deswalker · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:45 am Post subject:

In my opinion Tax Free is effectively a winner without a penalty in that sprint handicap budge, as Pepper Lane just was not for catching that day. I wouldn't back him lto because I think he is better at 5f (even at 10yo), so everything could be bang on.

I haven't had a close look yet but I think he's likely to be in my selections for the race.

Win

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drogerson · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:45 am Post subject:

I'm actually thinking Frankel will improve over this further distance.

His full-brother Noble Mission has jumped from Listed class to Group class from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs.
Bullet Train, his three-part brother, put his best performance in over 11 and 12 furlongs (Won Group 3 Derby Trial).
His sire Galileo won both derbies and the King George VI and just got headed out in the Irish Champion stakes.
His Dam's a half-sister to a Great Voltiguer (12f 3yo Group 2) and triple Group 1 winner over 10f Powercourt. Also half-sister to a Prix De Paris close runner up this year, Last Train. (12f 3yo Group 1)

Not much from his breeding suggests that we won't handle 10 furlongs anything other than very well.
Take into account the fact that Tom Queally looks like a cartoon character hanging on trying to pull him up after the mile and I can't see anything other than another fantastic win for him.

Connections have mentioned the Arc but Cecil has been keen to quash it early on. However if he storms it tomorrow over 10f, they might have to take it into serious consideration.
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deswalker · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 8:52 am Post subject:

With 2 pacemakers in there for Coolmore and 1 for Juddmonte, it looks bound to be a decent pace in the feature. I wonder if O'Briens will try and stretch it as much as possible to make it like a 1m 4f race where Frankel could have a possible weakness?

Confused

On breeding he looks more than capable of staying drog, but a glance at the horse confirms that he looks more like a sprinter than a middle distance horse. On his performances this year I am convinced that 1m 2f is well within his scope but further could be an issue.

Win

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opie75 · Group 2 Class Joined: 12 Mar 2012 Posts: 185

Thats what im thinking team coolmore will do too deswalker. They know Frankel wont be beaten in this race if its a slow run affair, they have to test his stamina.
Id love nothing more than to see Frankel powering through that last furlong with an ever expanding yawning gap to the second placed horse but i just cant see him winning quite as destructively as he does over a mile if he does then surely he will go down as the greatest?

drogerson · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:27 am Post subject:

The pace will be there, we can be assured of that. I think the O'Brien pacemakers could work in pairs, with one going of faster than Bullet Train and then when tiring the other one kicking on to make the pace as frenetic as possible.
They'll want it so to aid St Nic who doesn't have the turn of pace to match Frankel so must out stay him.

Also, without being funny, it wouldn't surprise me to see Twice Over ridden to instruction to provide cover in the field.

Should be fascinating but I can't see past Frankel.

Des, further is likely to be an issue I agree, but if he were to hack up, given the formlines of St Nic leading into the Arc contenders, connections would/should be asking if he's a chance.

It would be a huge risk, but the reward's could stratospheric if he landed it.
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deswalker · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:54 am Post subject:

Well, there could be another tactic for them. Frankel still runs with a huge amount of enthusiasm so possibly if they were to get to the front and set up a CRAWL, hemming in Bullet Train with St Nic tracking the two in front on the outside, they could try to get him pulling for his life, thus cutting his own throat over the 10f.

In that situation if Queally decides to just let him run his own race and go to the front, we could really see what he is made of.

Win

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drogerson · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:59 am Post subject:

Should be good, he has learned to settle a lot better now though which I think may have been the reason they stuck with him at a mile more than stamina issues.
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itsfreeusee · At Stud Joined: 16 Dec 2011 Posts: 2616

My main bet at York, I already have sorted as long as the ground stays on the quick side, I will be having a good bet on Galician, on Thursday it should have won at Ascot two weeks ago when given a very poor ride and then raced on Saturday and was never put in the race and then has been entered too run at York this week wich I think has been the target for this Mark Johnston trained horse all along and I think has a very solid chance of winning this week. Win

drogerson · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:49 am Post subject:

YORK (Ebor Meeting) SIGNFICANT TRENDS
(10 Years)

Odds
The Ebor meeting has seen 15 odds-on favourites come to post and 9 return as winners. Despite the 60% strike rate for them they have made a slightly negative LSP, and they should be treated with caution.

Handicaps

If you had backed every horse over 20/1 in Ebor handicaps you would have broken even, so despite their lengthy odds it may be that trainers are holding back their horses to aim them at the big prizes on offer.

Ditto for horses off the track for over 57 days. From 126 runs they have provided 7 winners but at a profit of +4.00LSP so shrewd trainers who know their horses has a lenient mark obviously don't want to ruin it for a smaller prize.

Horses under penalty's have 5 wins from 34 runs at a +24.00LSP. Clearly trainer's wouldn't waste a horse in under a penalty for such a big prize if it weren't capable of defying it.

Trainer's who have 20%+ strike rates at the track have been profitable with 7 wins from 63 runs at +20.50LSP. Clearly trainers who target this track for big wins target it well.

Highlights
- Bigger priced runners (not shown their best just yet perhaps?)
- Off the track for 57 days (may have been kept on a mark)
- Carrying a penalty (Trainer's must be sure of a good run if allowing them to carry more weight)
- Trainer 20%+ strike rate (know how to produce on for this course)

2 Year Olds

In the nurseries, 7 winners from 58 runners have produced a +45.00LSP when returning to the track within 14 days of their last run.

Also for nurseries good jockeys are invaluable to juveniles as they require a steady hand and track experience to produce them right. No surprise that a jockey who has a 15%+ strike rate at this track has provided 4 winners from 9 runners.

In the mixed juvenile races Fillies have bagged 4 wins from 49 runners which is pretty much in keeping with the statistical strike rate for those races, however have generated a +31.50LSP and as such must be undervalued in the market.

Highlights
- Returning less than 14 days after a run in Nurseries.
- Jockey with 15% course SR in Nurseries.
- Fillies in mixed juvenile races.

(Ebor Meeting Stats Only)
Trainers

W Haggas has had 4 wins from 9 runs in 2yo Stakes Races (44.44% @ +14.00LSP)

J Fanshawe has had 2 wins from 2 runs in 2yo Group Stakes Races (100.00%)

D Nicholls has had 3 wins from 5 runs in 3yo Only Handicap Races (60.00% @ +27.00LSP) (All at Sprint Distances!)

Jockeys

J Spencer has 6 wins from 23 runs in long distance (1m4f+) handicaps (26.00% @ +56.00LSP).

J Fortune has 3 wins (3 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd) from 14 runs in Long Distance Class 1 Stakes (21.00% @ +26.00LSP)

K Fallon has 5 wins (3 x 2nd, 3 x 3rd) from 21 runs in Long Distance Class 1 Stakes (24.00% @ +17.00LSP)
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