HORSE RACING MONDAY - SELECTIONS

monkeytennis · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:28 am Post subject: HORSE RACING MONDAY - SELECTIONS

3 50 WOLVES QUICK BITE

It wouldn’t surprised me if Quick Bite popped up at a nice price today (11/1 at the time of writing but being backed). She’s had a short break after some lacklustre efforts but those efforts came in very strong races so are better than they look and she’s also been dropping in the handicap because of those runs. What is significant today is the drop back to 7f as her worst efforts came stepped up in trip beyond a mile so this might just be the key.

The feeling that she is well handicapped comes from running in three decent handicaps (two of which worked out very well) this season. Her run in a mile handicap at Donny was her best run this season when finishing 6th off a mark of 80 behind a couple of subsequent winners, since then she came 6th again over 10f, just fading in the last couple of furlongs and her latest start at 9f saw her finish last but still in touch, beaten just over 6 lengths. Five of the six horses to finish ahead of her that day have either won or finished second in a handicap since so that was clearly a better effort than it seems.

Now rated 75, 5lbs lower than the start of the season, and dropped in grade after a break, she could easily go very close on the all weather having finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd in all weather maidens at the start of her career.

beepee1984 · At Stud Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 2641

4.30 Thirsk – Evanescent

I’m surprised to see this horse in double figures as he is the most unexposed horse in the race and despite having top weight has been given a rating of 74 to start with. He is half-brother to Duchess of Foxland who was a listed winner that won on her handicap debut off a rating of 80 on soft ground before going on to win in Listed company and being placed in group company. My selection is the only CD winner in the field and being the most unexposed is the most likely to still be improving. The jockey selection of Shane Kelly (despite a bit of bad press on this forum) has also been a factor in my selection as he has only ridden once a Thirsk previously. He is a jockey based down south and could have picked up rides at Kempton, Wolves or Windsor. He has a decent strike rate at Carlisle, Catterick, Hamilton, Newcastle, Pontefract and Ripon all northern tracks, only let down by Beverly and Redcar. I’ve discounted Doncaster and York due to the amount of big meeting at the courses which would be reason enough to make the journey. He has 3 rides today, 1 for D Barron who he has only ridden 10 times in the last 5 years and 2 for McCabe. Out of the 2 for McCabe horses this one is owned by C Wentworth the owner of McCabes Stable star Casper Netscher who has only been ridden this season by Shane Kelly hence my thinking that he has made the journey to ride his horse. They have made Fayr Fall Fav at a short price for a handicap who has still yet to win from 13 runs on turf and has been harshly risen 5lbs in the weights despite failing to win LTO. 2nd Fav Fine Altomis has won twice both times with Eaves on board who picks the other Dods horse today.
Being the horse most open to improvement and being the only horse to win over CD as well as making Kelly traipse up north makes me think that Evanescent is a very good price at 12/1 and with his lowly

nelix847 · At Stud Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Posts: 3738

Gizzit Stratford 15:10

WIN NAP Backed at 9/2 Win.

Ran here for last twice but beat fav last time out but ran well and even had every chance of winning but still came a good 4th. Came a good 2nd though 2 runs back here at odds of 17/2 out of 15 runners running well all the but fav won that day easy and was Gizzit was 3 and 3 quater lengths away but inturn was 7 lengths clear of 3rd horse. Same weight as last 2 times out but is lesser distance today then last 2 of 19 furlong. Today is 2m 110y which is just abit less and ground back to good when the 2nd 2 runs back as when 4th was good firm. Mcoy ran on this horse last time out and runs again today and 1st time toungtie today could place or even win today.

Did not realize it was the fav today as was 6/1 when i looked at it earlier.
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The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5595

6.10 Roscommon.

With trip and ground conditions to suit I'm plumping for a spot of EW value hopefully with Gra Geal Mo Chroi @20/1 with SkyBet. The mare will need to show a bit more than in recent outings but is capable on her day when the mud is flying. A six times winner in her career with another five placings from 41 starts may not be the most consistant but her chance should not be underestimated ...... her trainer is 1 from 4 at the track.

Selection : Gra Geal Mo Chroi ........ Each Way @20/1 ( SkyBet )

Fingers Crossed

Good Luck If You Play Fingers Crossed

TeddyT · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:58 am Post subject:

PREMIER DANE 3.40 STRATFORD @ 9/4

I like the look of Premier Dane today in the 3.40 at Stratford. Successful on his first run for David Pipe on the back of just under a 27 month absence, the former Nicky Richards trained gelding took a C2 Handicap Hurdle that day but is back over fences this afternoon.
Despite being ten-years-old he is relatively inexperienced over fences and starts off an eight pound lower mark than over hurdles. The last time he contested races over fences they were at Class 2 level and he certainly wasn’t disgraced. The swap to Pond House looks to have freshened this horse and he appears to have a major chance here today.
The main concerns over backing Premier Dane are the bounce factor and the fact the David Pipe is yet to score this month but given, in my opinion, the relative weakness of the opposition and the fact that the horse looks well treated he must be worth a bet.
The main opposition comes from Eastlake whose novice chase wins have not worked out at all and was well beaten off a similar mark last time out, Moulin De La Croix whose last winning mark over fences was eleven pounds lower than today’s rating and who was well beat last time out at Cartmel and Gentleman Anshan who ran a decent race over course and distance last time but looks held off his current handicap mark.

Premier Dane was on the drift earlier this morning but seems to be heading the right way now on the exchanges and looks a good bet.

tonylfc · Listed Class Joined: 02 Jun 2008 Posts: 37

9:20 Kempton DIAMOND BELLE 7/2

won well last time out and clocked a decent time, improving!

@tonylfc05

manafana · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject:

2:40 Stratford Alfraamsey 2.88 Paddy Power

"A beginners chase here and the selection to go and beat the favourite hes our lad for me is alfaamsey at 15/8 with Paddy Power currently. with 13lbs less on his back he has that big advantage to begin with, was decent hurdler, seemed to have the look of a good chaser with his jumping of the smaller stuff. Comes of a nice flat win which improves his creditanals of now translating that winning form to the fences now. Decent 3lb claimer takes the ride hard oppose with weight in hand."

RomanyKing · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:40 pm Post subject:

2:10 Stratford - Patsy Cline NAP

In my ATR tracker I wrote for this 'next time at a trip further than 2m4 on good ground with Flint on board GET ON!' and that is what we have got today. Ran on really eye catchingly last time out at this very course, the trip was just too short though. Stratford for me is a good course for course form. Steps up to 2m6 today which should be perfect. Looks to be only a couple of possible challengers in this race, with a fair few rags who won't figure.
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cappaburgio · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:40 pm Post subject:

6.30 Winds [[[ Urban Space ]]]
C and D specialist. Looks to have a big chance tonight at the weights.

7.10 Rosco [[[ Tarla ]]]
Long absence didn't seem to matter when winning last time out albeit in an average race. Back over the jumps here and will hopefully begin to fulfil some of the promise shown. Trained by the maestro Willie Mullins and looks to have a big chance.

7.20 Kemp [[[ Sky Khan ]]]
Beaten by a decent enough Gosden horse last time at Kempton but did plug on well for 2nd. May find things easier tonight and has the aid of some headgear. Brilliant jockey takes the ride.

Prices not great tonight but the treble is around the 12/1 mark and it may well come off.

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