HORSE RACING DISCUSSION- SUNDAY 12TH AUGUST

miniman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 03 Nov 2008 Posts: 1102

Several interesting races today over in France and in Ireland. Starting with the Jaques le Marois with Excelebration taking on the likes of moonlight cloud, Cityscape, Fallen for You and Elusive Kate. Interestingly, William Buick chooses not to ride the lightly raced Prix Rothschild winner Elusive Kate in favour of Coronation stakes winner Fallen for You. I still think Excelebration is most definitely the one to beat and that 5/2 is actually a decent price even in this company. Moonlight cloud steps up in trip after romping home in the Prix Maurice de gheest over 6.5 f but I\m not convinced that she stays the full mile.

In the Royal Whip stakes, Famous name is a very solid Group 2 horse but gives weight to the youngsters here. Born to Sea has improved with each run this year and seems to be settling much better. He may be odds on but he'll be very tough to beat if continuing to progress.

The Phoenix Sprint stakes also sees the return to track of Starspangledbanner, who has had a troubled stud career and if fit, should win well.

Alexman · Group 2 Class Joined: 09 Oct 2008 Posts: 109

I'm looking to take Excelebration on, think his heart may have been broken one too many times by Frankel

Despise orchid · 2yo Joined: 16 Apr 2012 Posts: 3

Alexman.....I think a wise man would not back against the only horse to concurrently come second to the great one. I think that the 9/4 currently on offer is a steal and suggest you snap it up while it lasts. Anyone backing anything else in the race would blindly be looking for value ...not the fact that that the O'Brien runner is a shoe in based upon its recent runs. If you are to have a bet in the race i suggest you get the price on Excelebration while it's still available.

tinman72 · Classic Winner Joined: 08 Apr 2010 Posts: 611

Excelebration 9/4 with SkyBet must say i agree with despise orchid dont usally bet the night before a ace but whant that price and glad i got it. Win

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budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

If Moonlight Cloud wasn't in the race and Excel ran to his best (easy to argue probably his worst race and an OR of about 113 last time) then 9/4 would look a strong price for a horse who would probably have been champion miler in any other era. He may win but it's not nailed on especially as it might be a typical slow run French race and with two Gosden improvers in it - for me a sure none bet though I might change my mind if somewhere I can get MC at 4-1 or EK at 10-1 or if the rain comes Immortal Verse at 16-1. Might be an over exaggeration that Excel had his heart broken last time but he has a hard job giving weight away - you should be cautious lumping on in my opinion as I think 9-4 offers no value (should be 3-1, 7-2 now). Invincible Spirit gets mile winners and Spectrum on the grand dam sire side would make you think that she can get a mile. Add in Most Improved and Tin Horse personally looks a 4-1 field to me so no value. Gun to head but not a tip I would trust MC to see out the distance and be hard to beat with Excel not far off and depending on the ground one of the UK runners in the mix also.

Not saying Excel won't win just 9/4 looks a price I can bypass.

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

An interesting race in Ireland where the Cov form is put up anyway not abet again but probably possibly represents ,aybe value at 3-1 against a 5-4 fav Prob beat CC 2ls so weird price diff

beepee1984 · At Stud Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 2641

The 2.40 in Deauville is definitely the best race tomorrow.

Excelebration with 2 2nd behind Frankel and I can see why he is Fav, but I would advise against lumping on because I am more concerned on what he has beat this year because the races behind Frankel are about Group 3 level as Frankel scares away his rivals, The lockinge was basically a no race with it being 16/1 bar the top 2 and in the Queen Anne he only just held on to beat Side Glance who best win was at Group 3 class and less than 1.5 lengths down was Indomito who tomorrow reopposes 9/4 against 50/1 for just 1.5 lengths doesn't equate good value to me.

Moonlight Cloud is bred to leave me with no doubt that she will see out the distance comfortably and that is before I take in to account that she is always staying on and pulling clear in her recent 7 furlong victories. Since changing jockeys she has only been beat when racing at 6 furlongs and I believe the step up in trip will make her harder to beat than she already is.

Out of Gosdens 2 I think Buick has got it right, taking the form line through Irish History in their group race then it suggests Fallen For You has a length on Elusive Kate, both won Group 1s LTO easily Elusive Kate only had to beat 4 rivals icluding Golden Lilac who hasn't looked at her best this season and IMO needs further. Fallen for You is nicely bred who has done nothing wrong, only beat this season in a race where she hit the rail and had no room.

We also have Most Improved who I am undecided on, but Meehan talked highly about this horse and was backed for the guineas. His defeat this season was caused by running over the wrong distance shortly after injury had ruled him out of the guineas.

And the 4 I haven't mentioned have 13 group race wins between them including last years winner Immortal Verse.

In Summary I think that Moonlight Cloud is the one to beat and not Excelebration who I consider to be poor value, with Fallen For You a real danger, but in a race so full of quality I would think carefully about risking large stakes.

ben2k8 · Group 2 Class Joined: 02 Jul 2009 Posts: 134

Anyone else think Starspangled banner is far to short? hasnt run for about 2 years and I cant imagine this is his main target at all. I reckon he is a superb laying opportunity.

ryan110588 · Group 2 Class Joined: 05 Jun 2011 Posts: 143

aidanldrebin you got any selections today? Very Happy

DaveTehTipst0r · Posted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:33 am Post subject:

I think excelebration is huge.. 3.8 Betfair..second only to frankel on many occasions..no frankels here today

Also like ihtifal - sbs has great record at leicster

Finally lookin forward to seeing starspangledbanner back on racecourse.. If hes fit he wins but no bet

clubberlang12 · Posted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:15 am Post subject:

meoldmate · Posted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:35 am Post subject:

Excelebration 5/2 with Bet365 this present time.

Thanks for pointing this runner out, would of not looked at racing in Deauville.

Some good points put over about this runner today, about lumping on.
He did get within two lengths of Frankel at Ascot over eight furlongs and Ryan Moore riding for O'Brien, he would not send a horse over to France just for a run, as he showed his well being, taking a Group 3 with ease.
He holds several here and O'Brien looks to be within a chance of collecting from a big run from his four year old.
Iwill have to go to the bookies to watch this race, as the viewing on line can be a stop start picture.