HORSE RACING THURSDAY - DISCUSSION

[aidanldrebin]

Interesting to see that Ellaal returns to action in the 1m handicap at Haydock at 3.10 tomorrow. He is a colt who looked full of potential when landing his maiden at two, following on from a promising debut second behind Spiritual Star - both outings coming at Newmarket. However, for whatever reason, he was upped 3f in trip to 1m 2f for a valuable sales race at the Craven meeting this April and unsurprisingly shaped as a massive non-stayer. He has clearly has his problems since that run to not have been seen since then, but a mark of 85 could still prove potentially lenient if bouncing back from that muted comeback run; after all, he has run just three times so far. Touch Gold is going to prove tough to beat on current form, but I do feel there is still real potential to be unlocked from within when it comes to Ellaal.

Similarly, in the 7.15 at Sandown, Roger Varian's Mazeydd makes his return to the fold after an even longer absence. He is a half brother to Mijhaar and Yaddree who put behind him a slightly disappointing debut effort to beat a field littered with subsequent winners at Haydock, clearly showing the benefit for that debut outing. Obviously he won't be arriving there tomorrow at absolute peak fitness, but a mark of 82 doesn't look overbearing, considering the form of his maiden win and a pedigree that suggests even better to come at three over 10-12f. Interesting to see what he can do first time back from a near 11-month absence.
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[myagi007]

Aiden I read your dark horse blog this evening and have to say I completely bow down to your knowledge, amazing write up. Thanks for the great pointers.

[budgie27]

Aidan GL with Ellaal if you are betting looks a very tough race and the only race I looked at given fav is very short - any horse ridden by Tadhg O'Shea wouldn't carry my money though maybe I just back him on the wrong horses but tactically he is one of the poorest imo in fact one of the few jockeys I have a total disregard for!

[Despise orchid]

From selections thread.




Posted: 08 Aug 2012 22:59     Post subject: Cochabamba
Scaifey....it's uncanny that you put this selection up as the discussion at mine tonight has been of the filly Cochabamba.
Firstly let me introduce myself. I registered a while ago as Dessiesorchid but unfortunately the predictive text on the iPad registered me as a despise orchid and after a request denial for a change of username I have been reluctant to post in case of reprisal. Saw your post tonight and thought to hell with it and hopefully after tonight I can be referred to as dessie now I've put my case forward. Right ......back to my post.

My boy works for a local Epsom stable as a work rider and has offered up some sound betting selections over the last 6 months that have been fairly fruitful. He is visiting tonight with a few friends..one of which rides out your selection Scaifey. Talking tonight she says that she can be a handful on the gallops but is as honest as the day is long and will gallop all day long. Her problem since her early successes is that the owners saw the potential and she has been hammered in training and though is an out and outright stayer she now has no turn of foot so looks to need further than she is being raced at nowadays. Been told that an e/w bet is as safe as houses but cannot see her getting her head in front unless the other runners stay on at the one pace to a finish tomorrow and in that case she will have every chance of finishing with her head in front which doesn't look too likely but good luck with your selection but I'm just relaying what I've been told.
What was talked about that pricked my ears was that the trainer runs Jack Of Diamonds at Lingfield at the weekend and the word on the gallops today was that it was going like a train and apparently raised some eyebrows.
Just passing on words from those at the business end of our game and hope the fruit tree keeps bearing fruit.

Oh and just a quick high to all on this excellent forum and thanks for all your input since I registered.

Martin



Sorry but I think this should be in the discussion thread. If it should could admin move as I don't know how
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[lookingglass91]

Welcome to the forum buddy...some nice information there, hope ya stick around

As for tomorrow, if you can forgive his latest run, Treasure Beach looks to have a very good chance in the 7:30 Leopardstown. Should be a class above these horses. Hoping the ground is firmer than lto (even though he's won on good)

[m0000ny]

Going to Brighton again today for day 2 of the festival, clear skies down here and the ground is currently good, but it will be drying up quickly so expect it to firm up in time for the opener. The class 4 challenge cup handicap is the feature and has some interesting contenders; Varnish will be back on firmer ground for the first time since getting beaten by Shirocco Star by 1/2 a length last year. She has been running well since but has struggled to get her head in front on the last 2 occasions, currently 3/1 and should still have more improvement to come, I expect her to be backed today and remain favourite. Steely is certainly worth a mention here aswell, he had a fairly dissapointing year with Jim Best but has turned that around now with Gary Moore. He won over course and distance with ease back in june albeit a class 6 handicap and although he hasnt won since he has been running well in better races despite creeping up the weights. Coming back to Brighton could be just whats needed to get back to winning ways, he does take another step up in grade but is certainly backable EW at 14/1. Of the others Superduplex makes some appeal on this good ground and some decent efforts at Epsom could translate well at this similar course.

1st Varnish
2nd Steeley
3rd Superduplex

Good luck today

[andyinfo]

Hi everyone hope your all well looks like were in for another sunny warm day am off to my locall track today haydock hopeing to back a few winners!Would be very greatfull of any usefull tips!Thanks and have a great day

[bigspender]

Lets make it 7from 7

Keyaadi in the 7.25

with 3 runs under his belt this is the time to get on. This look a realy poor race on paper and wont take much winning, if Keyaadi runs to his previous form he should win with someting in hand.

10point win.

GL

[DaveTehTipst0r]

Aiden - thoughts on Lightning Launch and Disclaimer in first at Haydock please fella

you posted both of these up on debut if i remember correctly?

ta

[aidanldrebin]

I did indeed, Dave (both lost, surprisingly!).

Disclaimer doesn't look the horse connections believe him to be on the evidence of his two runs to date, though the fact he finished off well having refused to settle last time is to his credit (form looking a bit suspect). The step up to 1m is obviously going to suit, but Cecil doesn't usually take his better 2yos to Haydock and he looks short enough, IMO anyway.

Lightning Launch was last off the bridle when fourth at Sandown behind Kerbaaj, simply lacking the front three's acceleration inside the final furlong; step up in trip will suit and should be sharper now, but the yard's 2yos have gone a bit quiet of late.

If Mickael Barzalona had gone up for the ride, I'd have been extremely keen on Mahmood Al Zarooni's newcomer Authorship, a half brother to connections' useful 8-10f 2yo winner Mojave and the smart Dubai Prince (debut winner at two); however, he goes to Yarmouth and Silvestre De Sousa (1-12 on the yard's 2yos) takes the ride instead.

I'd just favour Lightning Launch, stable's 2yo form aside, as he is entered in everything this autumn and shaped with the most promise of those to have run. Rhombus from the William Haggas yard may just be a longer term project, but I liked the way he finished off his race on debut in a race the yard won the year before with Entifaadha, and even he could improve for the extra furlong and get involved. Tricky little race.
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[DaveTehTipst0r]

i tend to agree with lightning launch as he seemed to travel very well and if nothign else seemed to stay (albeit not at the pace of first 3 like you said)

step up to a mile and nearly double the price of fav i might have a couple of quid on that one

[meoldmate]

Despise orchid Welcome to the OLBG, like the name and reasoning.
Look forward to your point and views on racing.