Caught the eye on debut finishing in a decent sixth close up despite running green and weakening late on. The form of that race has worked out well with the winner finishing runner up in a Listed then Group race whilst the other 5 in front of her and 7th place have also made decent impact in maidens and good races. Second start was also a good one and despite the easy 4.5 length winner who went on to win a Group 3 well next time out the selections proximity to 2nd and 3rd who have made decent showings in good maidens is a boost and every horse that has raced since from that maiden has at least placed with the exception of the selection. Breeding would suggest she wouldn't have liked the softer ground that day and could have fared better with firmer ground. Dropped to 5 furlongs last time out at Warwick again on soft ground and she didn't seem to pick up on the ground at all. It was still a slightly disappointing showing, but her demeanour throughout the race didn't look particularly settled from being slightly carried right at the start.
I'm prepared to forgive the last showing now on better ground which she should suit on breeding (Sire has a decent 14% strike rate on AW surfaces). Trainer Ed Dunlop also has a good strike rate here including a 25.00% strike rate when switching his juveniles from turf to this track. Joe Fanning is booked who has ridden this track unbelievably this year with a 25% strike rate generating a massive +58.47 LSP.
Looks set to be suited by the switch to AW and into Nurseries, whilst both jockey and trainer have great strike rates here. Big chance.
7:05pm Ripon - SCARLET WHISPERS
A surprise 50/1 winner two starts ago when stepped up to make all over 12 furlongs. Although I say surprise winner, her Grand Dam was Listed placed over 12 furlongs further our of 1,000 Guineas and Champion Stakes winner whilst her Derby winning Sire's progeny have taken their first steps up to middle distances (first 3yo's this year) fairly well. So the improvement for the step up shouldn't have been such a surprise and she duly confirmed that last time out when winning over this trip again just holding on when encountering soft ground. Up 4lbs for that win, but should be better on this ground (Sire's progeny has postive skew towards better ground).
Trainer Pam Sly has had 4 winners from the 11 runner's she has sent here whilst jockey Micky Fenton has a good 16% strike rate here. They've combined 10 times here and produced 3 wins.
With no issues over ground or trip, and with the horse clearly in good form I think she can run another good race here and pick up a 3-timer. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:29 am Post subject:
7:05 Ripon - Scarlet Whispers @ 5/1 (2pt Win NAP)
"Scarlet Whispers has been successful in her last two starts and for me can make it three on the bounce here today. She showed very little in her first three starts which were all in maidens but did show signs of improvement at Pontefract on her handicaps off a mark of 72 when runner up to Royal Majestic and only beaten by a short head but she did not follow that run up, the handicapper put her up 3lbs and her next two runs came off 75 & 74 but she failed to get anywhere near the winners. All of her first six starts had come over trips between 7f and 10s and then two starts ago she was upped to 12f for the first time and running off a handicap mark of 72 she produced a shock victory when landing a race at Windsor at 50/1. She then came here to Ripon again over 12f and then time off 76 and she battled on bravely close home to make it two on the bounce. She returns here today with the handicapper having put her up 4lbs and she now runs off 80 but for me she has finally got the hang of things and I believe that she will make it three on the bounce today." _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
Looking abit empty so i will put my one a day selection in here as i do think it will do quite well for an EW at 14/1 and also i have backed it.
Haajes 7:35 Ripon
Very good 2nd 2 runs back to say was behind but ran on to come 2nd in same class and distance as today and only got beat by a head. Was 8-12 weight when 2nd and came a good 4th last time out at 9-9 in a class 4 race. Been running well for last 5 runs coming in the top 6. Been running in lower fields though lately but 6 runs ago did come a good 6th of 17 at York in same class and distance as today and was only 6 lengths of 1st at 18/1 odds. Not won since last year and has ran 9 times so far this year but with 3 places and a few close 4th for 3rd and is there or there abouts .Jockey M fenton rides this often and rides again here tonight. _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
2.20 Excellent Mariner, the Mark Johnston horses are absolutely flying at the moment and this race look's a 2 horse race out of my selection and Prescott's Medicoe but after reading Drogersons, interesting write up on the selections thread on why too Lay Medicoe, it made my mind up and I am going for Johnston's runner for the inform yard and the horse has no problems with the conditions and finished a fine 2nd o gdfm last time out and should improve from that run and hopefully go 1 better today and win.
2.50 Redclue and Commander Veejay, in a tricky little race like this I am going to take a chance that a outsider might win and have went for the 2 horses nobody wants but Redclue steps rite up in trip today wich could possibly suit and never know stranger things have happened it could be a shock win and Commander Veejay, is back on gdfm ground for a change wich I am very pleased about it ran ok in a class 5 at Beverley on it in the past and that was over 1mile4 and was staying on well at the end so the step uptoo 1mile7 on this ground should bring the horse right intoo the mix today and I think has a cracking chance at a good price I really do everything look's in the horses favour today and fancy it quite strongly.
3.20 North Central, likes it around Catterick and although the yard have been out of form lately they did have the big winner on Saturday, so that's a good sign and maybe this can be another nice winner for them and the ground should not be a problem and I expect a big run back at the track it loves and 8/1 is a nice price
3.50 Bute Hall, another Johnston, runner that I fancy quite a bit, it loves fast ground it won easy on it at Newcastle and back on this ground for yard flying I think has a cracking chance to win
4.50 Croftamie, this Johnston, runner should be tough to beat today on this fast surface, the horse is bred to be better than this class and by Selkirk will love the fast ground and I would forget about it's runs on ground too soft and I full expect too show it's true form today and I think it will win this race quite comfy and 7/4 is a cracking price for this horse and this has to be my NAP.
With many non runners at Bath today, due to the rain soften ground, this race over five furlongs has cut up to eight runners after 14 been declared to run this morning. This has given a chance to SPIC ´N SPAN to shine from a good draw in stall two. Stall one is housed by JAWIM who is an hold up horse. the running rail will come to SPIC ´N SPAN use and can lead the field from then on. When last here four days ago, he trailed in eighth place, beaten 13 lengths behind Crimson Queen. Trade Centre was in front of him also, the down part for SPIC ´N SPAN was drawn wide and not able to dictate the pace he would like to have shown. The ground is softer today and he can act on this, when winning at Chepstow, the ground was soft. James Doyle can get his mount to the front, get the section times right and he will be hard to peg back, come finishing line.
Gloucester to Ripon for Milton Bradley is a rare foray to the Yorkshire course (1/5 20%) and his horse Solemn is no back number and will surely out run his 25/1 price in the 7.35.
Ran twice at Newmarket in its last 4 starts, once at Salisbury and once at Sandown with the win at Sandown being especially meritorious from a poor draw.
Any rain may help although it dosent seem to matter too much. Last time out at Newmarket was ridden by Ryan Moore so Milton Bradley must have felt the horse was in good form, but the weight burden was too much when 4 lengths behind Jedward." Again the horse may have too much weight but at 25/1 its worth a place bet.
This race is incredibly competative but i think Solemn could squeak a place at a huge price for such a talented and fast (good topspeed figure) horse.
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