This looks a good renewal of the Vintage Stakes which this year sees a nice mix of proven performers, such as the Chesham Stakes and Superlative Stakes winners, and impressive maiden winners with the scope for above average improvement now trying a higher level - notable past winners of this race in recent times include No Excuse Needed, Lucky Story, Shamardal, Sir Percy, Strategic Prince and Rio De La Plata.
The selection is a son of Elusive Quality who is the second foal of an unraced half sister to smart 8-10f winner (including at Listed level) Alvarita, Group 2-placed 10f 3yo winner Albion and 1m 1f 3yo AW winner Albaraka out of dual Champion Stakes heroine Alborada who was herself a half sister to top-class 7-12f winner (including three times at Group 1 level in Germany) Albanova, useful dual 12f 3yo winner Alakananda (later dam of Derby runner up Dragon Dancer and very useful middle distance/staying performer Ajaan), useful 1m-2m winner Alanbrooke, dual 12f 3yo winner Alba Stella and useful dual purpose performer Albinus, family of Yesterday, Aussie Rules, Allegretto etc. This well-bred colt is trained by John Gosden and made his debut outing in a traditionally strong 7f maiden at Newmarket (July) last month, going off the 3/1 market leader; recovered from a slow start to race in midfield for the most part, making progress on the stands' side rail from over two furlongs out and arrived on the scene going exceptionally well, ridden to lead approaching the final furlong and staying on well despite clear signs of inexperience to score by 1½ length from Improvisation. It was a very smart performance on debut from this well-related son of Elusive Quality, fully justifying the pre-race market confidence with a decisive debut success despite missing the break and running green once hitting the front inside the final furlong, whilst the rain-softened ground wouldn't have been absolutely ideal. The fourth and seventh have already come out and won since to give the form some ballast (race he won on debut has produced next time out Group winners Elusive Pimpernel and Native Khan in recent seasons), and this colt looked every inch a pattern-class performer in the making that day; sounder surface could well bring about yet further improvement, and he is certain to have improved a fair chunk for the initial experience (green in all aspects) so for all he takes on more proven rivals here, no surprise to see this excellent prospect prove up to the task on his first foray into Group company.
The Richard Hannon-trained Olympic Glory is a son of Choisir who created a very favourable impression when justifying odds of 6/4 favouritism to land a 6f maiden here in June, slowly away but travelled powerfully under a waiting ride on the stands' side, coasting into contention approaching the final furlong and soon going clear once shaken up to see off Dark Emerald by 3¼ lengths. He was one of the lesser-fancied runners from his stable when contesting the Coventry Stakes 11 days later, this reflected in his price as he was sent off a 20/1 chance; however, he emerged the best of his yard's runners, towards the rear until making headway from over a furlong out, staying on well for pressure throughout the final furlong to eventually finish second behind Dawn Approach, going down by ¾ length. He returned to winning ways when contesting the 7f Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting last month, going off the 6/4 market leader; raced in touch behind the leaders until shaken up to move closer passing the two furlong marker, leading at the furlong marker and appearing well on top of matters until the closing stages when faced to pull out all the stops to hold off the fast-finishing Birdman, scoring by a head. He didn't fully convince as though seven furlongs would be his preferred distance in future, but then it must be remembered that he was racing under very testing conditions and was holding on from a rival that was proven on such ground and also a winner at that distance. The sounder surface around a sharper track should ensure he sees out the seventh furlong to better effect on this occasion, and he follows the same path into this race as taken by the past two winners of this race (for this stable); does have to concede 3lbs now and interesting to see whether he can uphold the Superlative form with one or two of those in behind on better ground.
The Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained Maxentius is a son of Holy Roman Emperor who made a winning start to his career when landing a six-runner 6f median auction maiden at Folkestone in May, for which he was sent off the 10/11 market leader; tracked the leader and travelled supremely well throughout, taking over approaching the final furlong and shaken up to go clear and run out an impressive 4 length winner from Alexandrakollontai. He followed up when upped in trip/grade for a 7f novices' contest at Doncaster last month, for which he was sent off a well-supported 7/4 market leader; raced in last but well in touch, again travelled supremely well throughout, full of running but forced to wait for a gap to appear as the race began to unfold, switched to the inner and quickening on the bridle to lead inside the final 100 yards, running out an extremely easy 2½ length winner over Silver Ridge. He lost his unbeaten record when contesting the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket (July) a couple of weeks later, for which he was sent off a 3/1 chance; missed the break and raced towards the rear of the field early, but he made headway passing halfway and travelled supremely well into the lead with around two furlongs left to run, held together for as long as possible but proving unable to sustain his effort approaching the final furlong, outpaced initially before staying on again to nick third close home behind Olympic Glory (beaten 2 lengths). This colt did himself no favours by getting himself worked up prior to his third last time out, and the mid-race move he made perhaps came too soon and left him short when it came to the business end of matters, but the manner in which he had travelled into the lead marked this colt down as an exciting prospect. He encounters better ground now and enjoys a 3lbs pull with his conqueror on that occasion, and it wouldn't be the greatest surprise to see him get a lot closer at the very least; had a hard race on heavy ground that day and only had 18 days to recover, but otherwise this son of Holy Roman Emperor has to be considered a major player now back under more favourable conditions.
The David Simcock-trained Birdman is a son of Danehill Dancer who shaped nicely in a 6f novice contest on the Rowley Mile track on debut, finishing a staying on third behind Heavy Metal, and followed that with a smooth victory in a 6f maiden at Brighton at the beginning of June when landing odds of 4/9. He followed up in a 6f novices' contest at Chepstow on heavy ground a fortnight later, for which he was sent off the 11/8 market leader; raced at the rear of the five-strong field, shaken up and making progress over two furlongs out, leading approaching the final furlong and staying on well to see off Fortinbrass by 3¼ length. He split the aforementioned duo of Olympic Glory and Maxentius when contesting the Superlative Stakes last month, going off a 7/1 chance; broke slowly and raced towards the rear as a result, ridden over two furlongs out and taking a while to hit top stride, but he finished off to great effect inside the final furlong and got to within a head of eventual winner Olympic Glory at the line. It was a hugely respectable effort considering where he had to come from to mount his challenge, almost nabbing the favourite after coming with a sustained run throughout the final furlong, but the main concern is whether or not he can run to that sort of level again on a sounder surface, his two career-best efforts to date coming on very testing ground; no sure thing to confirm the Superlative form now back on quicker ground, for all he really caught the eye with his finishing effort last time, appealing as something of an unlucky loser.
The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained Artigiano is a US-bred son of Distorted Humor who shaped with a good deal of promise on his debut outing in a 6f maiden at York's Dante meeting in May, sent off a not unfancied 8/1 chance and eventually finishing third behind Funk Soul Brother, catching the eye with his finishing effort from over a furlong out on the outer which saw him get to within a length of the winner at the line. He carried over that promise to land a 6f maiden at Leicester next time, fully justifying odds of 11/10 favouritism; raced in behind the leaders from the outset, shaken up to lead passing the two furlong marker and extending clear approaching the final furlong to run out a very impressive 6 length winner from Pearl Noir. He ran a creditable race in defeat when contesting the Coventry Stakes next time out, for which he went off a 12/1 chance; raced in touch, ridden over two furlongs out and making headway to challenge approaching the final furlong, keeping on but not as well as one or two others as he came home in fifth behind Dawn Approach (beaten 4¼ lengths). His latest outing came in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket (July) last time, for which he was sent off a well-supported 4/1 chance; raced in behind the pacesetters until ridden to challenge over a furlong from home, holding every chance approaching the final furlong but proving unable to quicken inside the final 100 yards, fading to finish fourth behind Olympic Glory (beaten 2 lengths). He doesn't have an awful lot to find with the front three on that evidence, but he was best placed of those to fill the first four spots and showed his hand to an extent; interesting that Frankie Dettori rides him rather than Tha'Ir, presuming he had the choice, and this colt will at least be well suited by the return to a sounder surface here.
The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Tha'Ir is a son of New Approach who shaped with only a modicum of promise on his debut outing in a 6f maiden at Ripon in May, but returned 17 days later to land a course and distance contest in good style, putting his previous experience to good use and make all to see off next time out winner Bircham by 4½ lengths. He stepped up on significantly on his debut form to land the Listed Chesham Stakes over a furlong further at Royal Ascot last month, going off a well-supported 9/2 chance beforehand; raced towards the rear of the field until ridden and making good progress from over two furlongs out, short of room and switched right before coming with a sustained challenge to lead entering the final furlong, staying on strongly to see off Cruck Realta by 2¼ lengths. It was a visually impressive performance from this well-bred colt, set plenty to do and also having to overcome slight problems in running to score, picking up well inside the final furlong to win going away in the end to leave the bare form of his maiden win behind and confirm himself a useful prospect. However, as with most renewals, the Chesham Stakes is a difficult race to get a handle on form-wise, and although the fifth was a Group 3 winner next time out (albeit only in Italy), several in behind were maidens who have since met with defeat at that level; interesting that Frankie Dettori, who usually rides for this stable over that of Mahmood Al Zarooni, has chosen to ride Artigiano, for all Silverstre De Sousa is hardly a bad replacement.
The Brian Meehan-trained Whipper's Boy is a gelded son of Whipper who was sent off an unconsidered 25/1 chance ahead of his debut outing in a 6f maiden at Newmarket (July) towards the end of June, breaking slowly and racing well adrift of the main group throughout as a result, eventually trailing home last of 11 behind Boomshackerlacker (beaten 13 lengths). However, he proved a totally different proposition when contesting a 7f maiden at Epsom a couple of weeks ago, sent off a well-fancied 9/2 chance; raced towards the rear of the field once again and had to be niggled early on, making good progress on the outer from over two furlongs out to eventually lead approaching the final furlong, coming clear in good style throughout the final furlong to see off Chesham also-ran Zanetto by 3½ lengths. It was a visually impressive display from this gelding, making sustained progress from the rear of the field over two furlongs out to lead approaching the final furlong, soon clear and winning with a fair amount in hand at the line from a twice-raced rival considered good enough to contest the Chesham last time out. This will obviously demand a whole lot more from this son of Whipper just a couple of weeks on from that victory, though his entries in the Champagne Stakes and Royal Lodge indicate connections expect plenty from him this term; improvement still needed, however.
This three-year-old middle distance handicap is often a competitive contest in which several improvers cross swords, some of whom are en route towards competing at a higher level, and this year's renewal features several in-form types still open to further improvement - notable previous winners include Dawn Invasion, No Refuge, Foxhaven, Regal Flush and Verdant.
The selection is an Ed Walker-trained son of Theatrical who built on a promising debut fifth at Kempton to land a 1m median auction maiden at Redcar the following month, for which he was sent off a well-supported 3/1 chance; travelled strongly towards the rear of the field until making headway over two furlongs out, staying on well for pressure to lead entering the final furlong and was soon clear, asserting readily to see off Final Delivery by a resounding 3¼ length margin. He made his reappearance outing in a 10f handicap at Sandown towards the end of May from an opening mark of 79, going off a 10/1 chance; missed the break badly and raced towards the rear of the field as a result, ridden over two furlongs from home and making headway into contention with over a furlong left to run, holding every chance entering the final furlong and keeping on well but forced to take second behind Freddy Q, going down by ¾ length at the line. He showed the benefit for that comeback run when contesting a 12f handicap at Kempton off a 3lbs higher mark the following month, sent off the 9/2 favourite; raced in mid-division under a patient ride, travelling strongly throughout and making smooth progress on the inner to lead passing the two furlong marker, challenged immediately and taking a while to hit top stride before clearing away close to the finish to see off Al Saham by 2 lengths. He is a colt of enormous potential based on the evidence of his four runs to date, improving with each outing and impressing with the manner in which he travelled last time out in a good handicap, showing signs of inexperience once hitting the front but well on top at the line. The handicapper has put him up 6lbs for that success, but this son of Theatrical looks to have a whole lot more left to come yet, particularly over this trip; very much on the up and comes into this with an ideal profile, and absolutely no surprise to see him follow up here and provide his hugely promising rookie handler with a notable success.
The Richard Hannon-trained Rule Book is a son of Aussie Rules who shaped with some promise when finishing fifth behind Minimise Risk in an 11f maiden at Newbury's Greenham meeting in April, slowly away but soon recovering to race up with the action, ridden well over two furlongs out and unable to make any real impression from over a furlong from home, holding his position and nothing more. He built on that debut run when contesting a 12f maiden at Folkestone a month later, for which she was sent off a 4/1 chance; proved keen under restraint and was dropped back to race in the last trio until switched and ridden to take close order well over half a mile from home, one paced over two furlongs out but staying on again inside the final furlong to take second close home behind Glittering Gold. He went one better next time when landing a 10f maiden at Sandown in June, for which he went off a 9/2 chance; led narrowly at just a steady tempo for much of the way, ridden two furlongs out and headed entering the final furlong, battling back bravely to regain the lead inside the final furlong to see off Sir Quintin by a neck. He followed up on his handicap debut when landing the 12f Bibury Cup at Salisbury, for which he was sent off a 13/2 chance; tracked the leading pair of the most part, ridden over three furlongs out and slowly but surely finding top stride, keeping on well for pressure throughout the final furlong to ware down Rye House in the closing stages to score by a head. It was a hard fought win for this improving son of Aussie Rules, but it must be said that he was helped by the eventual runner-up kicking for home a fair way out, leaving him vulnerable in the closing stages; however, this colt is certainly going the right away and has displayed a very good attitude so far, and a 7lbs rise in the weights ought not to prevent him from going well here on his hat trick bid.
The Mark Johnston-trained Scatter Dice is a daughter of Manduro who has proven a most consistent individual since making her debut earlier this year, improving markedly for a step up in distance and switch to this sphere having shown just fair form in maidens, landing a 10f handicap at Redcar by an impressive 7 lengths back in April. She followed that with another all-the-way success under a 6lbs penalty in an 11f handicap at Yarmouth seven days later, seeing off Chankillo by 3 lengths, and found only the progressive Ruacana too good for her next time in a 12f handicap at Chepstow when just foiled on her hat trick attempt, collared in the dying strides and going down by a neck. However, she returned to winning ways in style when bagging the valuable 12f Edinburgh Cup at Musselburgh at the beginning of June, grinding out a neck victory over Clayton, and it was much the same this weekend just gone when winning a 2m handicap at Ascot at the expense of Address Unknown, strongly challenged throughout the final furlong but finding plenty to score by a neck. She comes here very much at the top of her game, and the return to a mile and a half shouldn't prove too problematic, but this looks the hottest race this daughter of Manduro has contested so far and it comes just days after a gruelling race; cannot be totally dismissed given her current form and yard's record at this meeting, but further improvement needed to make it a hat trick of wins here.
Andrew Balding sent out Whiplash Willie to land this prize 12 months ago and relies this year on the hat trick seeking Stature, a son of Montjeu who has gradually been getting his act together this term, losing out narrowly to the useful Valiant in a 10f maiden at Newbury on his return before finishing fourth behind Scatter Dice on his handicap debut at Musselburgh next time. He wore a hood on that occasion, and it appeared to do the trick next time when proving too good for the useful Beaufort Twelve in a 10f handicap at Windsor a month ago, making all and finding plenty once challenged to fend off the runner-up's advances to score by a neck. He took his form to even greater heights next time to land a 10f handicap at Newmarket's July meeting just 11 days later off a 6lbs penalty, going off a 12/1 chance beforehand; raced prominently from the outset until taking up the running well over a furlong out, staying on well for pressure throughout the final furlong to win going away in the end by 1¾ lengths from Silver Blaze. It appears that the fitting of a hood has transferred this colt, proving extremely progressive in this sphere and landing what is traditionally a good handicap last time in good style, strong at the finish and shaping as though ready for a try at this distance. However, he is now 12lbs higher than when securing the first of his two wins in this sphere, forced to give weight all round now; extra two furlongs ought to suit on the evidence of his latest win and could well elicit yet further improvement, but takes on some equally progressive rivals here and could just prove vulnerable off top weight.
The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Handsome Man is a nicely bred son of Nayef who looked a promising sort when landing a 1m maiden at Yarmouth on his second outing last autumn, but he proved disappointing on his comeback run in valuable sales race before managing only fourth in a 10f handicap at Salisbury the following month. However, he has improved significantly since upped to this distance, landing a well-contested 12f handicap at Newmarket in smooth fashion two weeks on from his Salisbury fourth, travelling nicely throughout and staying on well throughout the final furlong to see Maastricht to score by a neck. He showed that to be no fluke when posting an excellent performance in defeat when contesting the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot the following month; raced close to the action from the outset, ridden passing the two furlong marker and led narrowly on the approach to the final furlong, still leading until headed in the closing stages by Fennell Bay to go down by a neck at the line. It was an excellent effort in defeat from this colt, prominent throughout and leading from over a furlong out right up until the dying strides when collared by the eventual winner; has been pushed up a further 4lbs by the handicapper which makes life that bit tougher once again, but this strong-travelling son of Nayef is on an upward curve and ought to make a bold bid defy his latest rise in the weights.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Mawaqeet is a son of Dynaformer who showed steady progression in a trio of maidens at two, signing off with a creditable third-place finish behind Better Announce in a 7f maiden at Newmarket, and he had the misfortune of bumping into the very useful Trade Commissioner on his reappearance in a 10f maiden at Sandown in May. However, he proved to be disappointing next time when only third behind Mysterious Man in a 12f maiden at Bath, taking a while to get going before staying on well inside the final furlong; came good at the sixth time of asking last time when landing an 11f maiden at Hamilton 13 days ago in a first-time visor, making headway from the rear of the field over two furlongs out and drawing clear in good style inside the final furlong to comfortably see off Roc De Prince by 3 lengths. It was an overdue success for this son of Dynaformer, benefiting from the fitting of headgear and getting the job done well; clearly not the most straightforward of individuals, and he asked to make his debut in this sphere from a mark of 87 in what is an above average race, but his stable has won this twice in recent times with a pair of subsequent high-class performers and respected for that fact alone, for all this gelding hardly comes into this boasting their kind of profiles.
The David Simcock-trained Cardinal Walter is a son of Cape Cross whose sole juvenile outing yielded a fourth-place finish behind the smart Starboard in a 7f maiden at Redcar, and he shaped with obvious promise on his return to the fray this spring when a staying on third in a 10f maiden at Newmarket behind Anomaly, never at any stage close to the action but doing well to make the frame from such a long way back (beaten 11½ lengths). He came good at the third time of asking when landing a 12f maiden at Haydock a month later, for which he was sent off the strongly-fancied 6/4 market leader; raced a little worse than midfield under a waiting ride, pushed along and making headway from the three furlong marker, looking to deliver a challenge when hanging in behind the eventual runner-up entering the final furlong, switched around him and staying on well for pressure to get up and score by a head from Swynmor. However, he proved something of a disappointment on his debut in this sphere last month when contesting a 12f handicap at York, going off a 4/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field once again, ridden and making some progress from over three furlongs out, but he was soon unable to sustain his effort and plugged on at the one pace from well over a furlong out to come home a soundly held ninth behind Bollin Greta (beaten 14 lengths). It was a disappointing effort from this son of Cape Cross, never really threatening to land a serious blow, his response off the bridle somewhat muted; dropped 1lb since then and too soon to write off after four career outings, but this looks a very tough race in which to bounce back in and others appeal overall.
The Roger Charlton-trained Trader Jack created a very good impression in a brief juvenile campaign last backend, fully confirming the promise shown on debut by landing a median auction maiden at Ffos Las on bad ground virtually on the bridle. However, the son of Trade Fair has yet to really go on in his second season, excused on account of the terrible ground on his return in the Esher Cup at Sandown in April, running an extremely good race in defeat behind Grandeur over 10f here next time when travelling strongly for a long way. He was well fancied for the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot next time but failed to make any sort of impact in that, and his most recent outing saw him finish fifth behind the re-opposing Stature in a 10f handicap at Newmarket (July), failing to settle fully once again. He clearly has ability but for whatever reason hasn't shown the true extent of it, with the ground perhaps to blame as well as his failure to settle on occasions, but it is interesting to note that his best effort of the season came here on ground similar to what he will face on this occasion; not one to write off just yet and could be interesting if back to something near his best, but the obvious major concern here is whether or not he will stay a mile and a half, particularly if failing to settle fully once again. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
You can never be sure in a race like this and I respect many of the last time out winners near the head of the betting but they might not have as much in hand as the aptly named Goodwood Atlantis. He made an eyecatching start to the season finishing 3rd in a course handicap over 9f. The winner of that race, Beaufort Twelve, has since finished 2nd to Stature who went on to win again (and runs here off a much higher mark). The 2nd, Silver Lime hasn’t been since but runs on Thursday (as does Beaufort Twelve) and both horses are of interest in their respective races on Thursday.
Other horses that have shown that race to be decent have been Eurystheus and Hidden Justice who have since finished second in handicaps after finishing behind GA. Goodwood Atlantis ran an even more eye catching race at Sandown next time out, it wasn’t a great race but the ground was probably softer than ideal and Ted Durcan found all sorts of trouble that day, the sort of trouble that suggests that next time would be the time to be on. He’s up in trip here at a course he handles and after just four starts no horse is less exposed in this race.
My selection is the 9th foal of Ffestiniog and the previous 8 have all won and they include a few very useful horses and despite the fact that so far on the racecourse he has so far been by far the worst foal of Ffestinog we have seen I don’t think we have seen the real horse yet. I believe that the 1st 2 runs were poor due to how unruly the horse was whereas last time Makin settled him better, but allowed him to run keenly and weaken so they could get a good handicap mark. He gets an extra 7lb off for being 3 and running against older horses and if Ryan was worried that he wouldn’t settle again I would have thought he would run him against other 3 year olds rather than take on the more experienced horses, but then again experienced can also mean exposed and my selection is easily the most unexposed horse in the race. Today he has his handicap debut of a lowly mark of 60 and I think we’ll see Makin settle the horse much better. He is trained by K Ryan who did have a poor July, but yesterday he had a winner, 4 2nds and a 3rd from 8 runners which suggests an upturn in form is on its way.
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:46 am Post subject:
10 Year Trends (172 runners)
6 winners have gone off as 1st or 2nd favourite.
Only 43 runners (25.00% of total) have carried 9-4 or more but accounted for 5 of the winners.
Only 18 runners (10.46% of total) had a previous course win but account for 3 of the winners.
9 of the winners had previous raced between 15 and 56 days ago (4/36 between 29 and 56)
7 of the winners 61 runners had not placed in their last race.
9 Year Trends (since Group 2)(77 Runners)
6 of the 9 winners have been favourites.
The three others were 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites.
3 winners have had a previous course win from only 5 runners.
5 winners from 21 runners has already competed at this class.
6 winners from 29 runners were stepping up in distance.
8 winners placed last time out.
Muharrib is short but is because of the yard its with and have a good record but for me may need the run and looks nothing special on paper Izzy Boy never impressed at all on debut but more was expected and yard in better form now I like Lucy Minaj alot and so does trainer Bryan Smart and he knows what it takes to win with two year olds in maidens Second on debut and just got beat but they was well clear of the rest but showed so much speed and Smart said after this horse will win next time out Been off the track for a few months but will have grown and got stronger and will learned lots since and the one to beat for me "
Broctune Papa Gio looks a good thing to me and won this race last year but is much higher in the weights but running consistently and finally gets the ground it wants Been running well this season and placed all three starts and been well backed in them and been unlucky in a couple Great record here and won three times in its last six starts here and also has a second and a third so no doubt will be there at the finish Jockey Declan Cannon gets on well with the horse and been aboard it every time the horse has won so hopefully add another together "
SEASIDE SIZZLER only found Hollins 3/4 length to good last year and could be ready to make amends this term with a strong staying performance.
Seaside Sizzler has had two outings this term over 22 furlongs and 12 furlongs withot success. His last run which was at Royal Ascot over 22 furlongs he finished in sixth place of eighteen runners, beaten 16 lengths, eight lengths a head of him was ROMEO MONTAGUE and there is nothing differant in the weights to suggest a turn around in form, they were both out matched by strong staying Simenon who could be action later on in the week here.
With Ralph Beckett having the services of in form Jim Crowley, a big run could be on the cards, as Jim could of been riding for Mrs Amanda Perrett, who has two entries here.
Ground and distance suits and with three wins to his name, two from the all weather and the grass win at Warwick. he will be hoping to add another good result to his cv.
Had a laugh to myself as I decided to post my selection in the Redcar 5.05 only to find that 2 others have been chosen on this thread already! (Broctune Papa Gio & Dafydd)
The horse I personally fancied was El Dececy. A 12 time winner this horse has just transferred to the John Butler stable and has a hood applied for the first time which seems to eeek out some improvement on the odd occasion i.e.) Sri Putra at the weekend etc.
This horse has picked up races consistently off marks in 70's and 80's in the past (including CD) and whilst perhaps on the downgrade, showed glimpses of old ability remains intact when neck runner up on all weather a few starts back and not least when winning by 2 and a half lengths from Bateleur in 17 runner Bath handicap, making all. Relying on it being a "going day" but I have a memory of Butler doing well with newcomers (Douze Points etc) but can't justify it with the stats? I'll take my chances at 10/1 and hopefully this one can go one better than Dean Iarracht yesterday! Good luck all (might put all 3 OLBG selections in a combination exacta too!)
The Egan, Johnston combo pair up again in this race, Both parties are in excellent form, and had a nice winner in the opener at 12/1 at goodwood yesterday afternoon.
Had the pleasure of watching scatter dice last saturday at Ascot, and the horse has alot of fight in a sprint, It really got the race by the scruff of the neck, made its move and ended up battling with adress unknown and stubbornly not giving up and ended up winning the race in a good sprint finish.
Today scatter dice races again, my only concern is it would have had only 3 days rest. That being said this horse has had two wins in eight days in April before. So therefore i remain confident in Scatter dice. Scatter dice form is excellent 211211, races today on good ground, its last run out on good ground it ended up coming second. Can Egan get Scatter dice past the post first, twice in 4 days?? Price reflects the horses ability. Currently at 15/2
I have took more than one horse in some of the big fields today and have tried to stick mainly too the horses with low draws in the sprints here are my WEDNESDAY GOODWOOD SELECTIONS
2.00 Mica Mika E/W, Hanagan, rode the winner in this race last year and
maybe he can do it again this year, but this time he rides for his old boss
Fahey, on Mica Mika who steps up in trip again wich some people think might stretch it's stamina but you could say that about half the field and Richard Fahey, is a very good trainer and he must be pretty sure it has a good chance over the trip and it kept on same pace last time at Ascot,, over 2mile wich was maybe a prep race for this and I am going to take a chance with this horse e/w at nice odds.
2.35 Whippers Boy e/w and Birdman
Whipper, won in a very good time last time and I think has a serious chance of winning today with Fallon, on board and at 22/1 worth going E/W with it I dont think the horse will be out of the places and really think can win and my second selection Birdman, I backed last time at Ascot when should have won if had got a clear run sooner and on that form has to have a chance today.
3.45 Mawaqeet and Trend Is My Friend and Goodwood Atlantis
Mawaqeet, can be a tricky ride but look's like has bags of stamina and and 1 mile 4 should be ideal here and has to go close.
Trend Is My Friend, won really well last time over 1 mile 2 staying on well shaping as if the extra distance today will suit and Goodwood Atlantis was not far behind staying on well and these 2 horses have good chances here today.
4.20 Bint Youmzain
I think Bint Youmzain who has a good draw has to hold a good chance today it was slow away last time and I think will improve alot today and Mick Channon, had a winner and another finish second here yesterday and his horses are going well.
4.55 Savanna Days e/w
Another Mick Channon, horse wich I think has a good chance today, the trainers horses just seem to improve when the big day comes and I get the feeling this might be another it has stall 2 wich is a big help and at beginning of career the horse won over 1mile twice so 1mile1 should be about rite now and I think will go very close.
5.30 North Star Boy and Red Seventy and Common Touch
Each of these horses look like they have a ok draw and the 2 hannon horses showed good form last year but hardleys nothing this year but would be no surprise if either pop up on the big day at Goodwood and Common Touch the Richard Fahey, runner look's like been laid out for this and the yard are in great form and from stall 5 should make a bold bid.
Away from Goodwood I have backed 2 horses 4.35 Chatterati has been running well and now the Johnston, yard are going better the the horse should make a bold bid today and on the 5.05 Border Abbey, look's about ready to pop up after showing nothing for a while Richards Guests, horses often show nothing then pop up and the yard going ok they had a winner whoth Barnet Fare and Border Abbey can be another and the horse is by Selkirk and might do well today on the fast ground
Izzy Boy should go well here but my vote is for LUCY MINAJ.
Izzy Boy didnt run badly on debut despite result, 6 legnths behind the winner. Should come on for that and in this lesser company will be placed at least. Has been backed into favourite so i will leave this one alone.
LUCY MINAJ was a very promising 2nd on debut here at redcar, 3 1/4 lengths behind Hidden Coin. Trained by Bryan Smart and ridden again by Tom Eaves.
This looks a tough race to decipher as cases can be made for a lot of these runners but one horse that does catch my eye here and who I believe will run a big race is the Paul Nolan trained King Vuvuzela.
Nolan has a very good recent record in this race as he saddled Ardalan to win here in 2007 and Gala Dancer prevailed last year and what is even more interesting is that Nolan's only other previous runners in this race were Adastra Lad who was beaten just a short-head into 2nd place in 2006 & Matt Wood who also finished in 2nd place in 2005 so from 4 previous runners in this race, Nolan has saddled 2 winners & 2 seconds and in my opinion, that stat alone warrants King Vuvuzela's close consideration in todays race.
A winner of a Punchestown bumper on his racecourse debut, King Vuvuzela returned to that track three starts later to land a maiden hurdle when dead-heating with the Willie Mullins trained 1/5 fav Allure Of Illusion and that horse has since proved to be a decent yardstick.
Last time out King Vuvuzela ran a decent race over a 2m 4f trip at Bellewstown when finishing a staying on 3rd of 5 runners, beaten just 3 3/4L behind Discoteca who was winning his 4th race on the trot.
I think King Vuvuzela would have needed that run as it was his first run in 91 days and I also think that Nolan would have ran the gelding with this race in mind.
Considering Nolan's impressive record in this race, I think King Vuvuzela is well worth some interest in todays race.
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