HORSE RACING TUESDAY - SELECTIONS

horsetaylor · Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:06 pm Post subject:

2.00 GOODWOOD - RETRIEVE
This is probably the most competitive handicap i have seen all season and to me it is a very difficult one to get a handle on. I was looking first for the well handicapped on old form angle, and then the horse most likely to progress angle. But i dont think this handicap has too much to offer. Kings Gambit is probably one of the best handicapped on old form. However, looking at his run against Retrieve a few starts back, Retrieve looked a different animal, and for me i cannot see the form being reversed despite the seven pound pull that Kings Gambit receives today. So that is the angle i am going in. Despite having top weight, Retrieve deserves it running some excellent races this season behind the likes of Jet Away when running too keen to do himself any justice. Jet Away is a listed class horse and better than handicap quality however i also think that of Retrieve and i do expect a bold showing today from this horse. The horse wasn't far behind Gatewood in what was a very big competitive handicap at Ascot off a mark of 108 on ground that didn't suit and dropped a 1lb could suit him here, especially with not as classy horses in opposition. Despite top weight i can see the horse making his presence felt.

2.35 GOODWOOD - FARHAAN (NAP)
The Gordon Stakes is a decent contest and generally throws up a leger contender at times and it is interesting that Minimise Risk has been entered and he would be the one i would be keeping an eye on for the leger in this contest. However, the one for me that looks a standout is Farhaan. The horse has to reverse form with Noble Mission on its last run however, Farhaan didn't get the run of the race and came through looking as if the horse was going to win the race at the two pole but lack of a recent run told and the horse went a drift and faded. I do think Goodwood will suit this horse and i do think it has been a clever play by connections to wait for this contest considering that Camelot has been dominating the 3yo middle distance division and this looks a weaker affair. However, Farhaan showed exceedingly good class as a juvenile and in my opinion lacked nothing of that quality to be involved in such a competitive affair on seasonal debut when all of his rivals had a run under their belt if not two and yet still got them under pressure at the two pole. I do think this is his optimum distance and in my opinion i think he has a solid chance.
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drogerson · Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:06 pm Post subject:

2:00pm Goodwood

10 year Trends (157 runners)

0 winners went off as favourite.
4 winners price single figure odds.
5 winners priced between 10/1 and 18/1.
4 winners carried top weight.
4 winners had previous course win from 30 runners.
7 winners did not place in their previous race.
3 winners dropped down in class to this race from 25 runners.
3 winners have been ridden by claimer jockeys from only 11 runs.
4 winners have been colts from 31 runners.
3 winners have been horses from 12 runners.

(5) RETRIEVE (2.50pts E/W)
(4) KING TORUS (1.50pts E/W)
(3) LANDAMAN (1.00pts E/W)

5:25pm Goodwood

Last 7 year trends (Since upgraded in 2005 to Class 3. 133 runners)

Mares have the best strike rate in this race with 1 win from 8 runners (backed up by females having the best place rate too)
5 of the last 7 winners from 48 runners finished 7th or worse last time out.
4 of the last 7 winners from 28 runners dropped down in distance
4 of the last 7 winners had not won in over 57 days.
2 of the last 7 winners from 17 runners were ridden by claimer jockeys.

INTERAKT (2pt E/W)
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cappaburgio · Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 2:02 pm Post subject:

4.05 Beverley {{{ Just For Mary }}}.

Ran a great race last September over in Ireland when narrowly beaten by the handy Blue Dahlia. Not been anywhere near that form since then and often misses the break quite badly. Bottom weight today tho and a good claiming jockey booked taking off more weight. Neither trainer nor jockey have a good record at the track but according to one website the jock has ridden for the trainer 8 times, winning once and placing on 3 occasions. All in all it's a risky looking bet but at 25/1 it might be a worthy addition to any small stakes Each Way Lucky 15's or something along those lines. Raise Eyebrows

Out to 33/1 now. Confused

TERRIBLE!!!! Crying or Very sad

thesystem · Group 2 Class Joined: 25 Jul 2012 Posts: 125

TRAIL BLAZE 10/3 looks primed to regain winning ways today. Weighted to win I cannot see this horse being beaten today.

thesystem · Group 2 Class Joined: 25 Jul 2012 Posts: 125

Three horses of interest here, ODDYSEY, DARLING LEXI and EMERALD SPIRIT. The one of most interest is EMERALD SPIRIT 9/2 who ran a good 3rd here yesterday and could well go 2 places better today.

thesystem · Group 2 Class Joined: 25 Jul 2012 Posts: 125

KATHLATINO 8/1 looks set for a decent run today back on faster ground and has very solid win claims. A horse at a price with E/W claims is DEEP APPLAUSE 16/1 who is capable of running well in a 1st time hood. Of the more fancied runners GOLD RULES 9/2 is of most interest.