This is an extraordinarily competitive renewal of a maiden that sometimes lacks strength in depth, several of those with experience showing a decent level of ability at the very least so far - one or two shaping as though potentially above average, and there are also some interesting newcomers from leading stables in a race won in recent times by the likes of Goggles, Foss Way, Prince Of Light, Lowdown and Pabusar.
The selection is a son of Elusive Quality who is a half brother to 7f 3yo AW debut winner Burghley out of a smart 6-7f winner (including at Listed level)/Cheveley Park third who was a half sister to the very useful 6-7f winner Cala, 7f-1m winners Balfour and Rafferty, useful 1m 3yo winner Badagara, dual 1m 1f 3yo AW winner Bakongo, dual 7f 2yo winner Ballantrae, useful 1m 2yo winner Badalona and 7f 2yo winner Fox out of a useful 8-9f winner. This smartly bred colt is trained by Michael Bell and made his debut outing in a 7f maiden at Yarmouth a fortnight ago, sent off the well-supported 5/2 joint-favourite; raced towards the rear and proved keen under restraint early, but he travelled smoothly throughout and made progress easily into contention over two furlongs out, joining issue on the bit approaching the final furlong and shaken up to lead entering the final furlong, looking to have the race sewn up until collared in the dying strides by Makafeh, going down by half a length at the line (eased once held). He looked for all the world as though he was going to make a winning start to his career and confirm the positive impression he has been creating at home with winners, but his earlier keenness and lack of a previous run appeared to be his downfall in the end against an experienced rival. The step back to six furlongs here appears to be the correct move for the time being, his dam a high-class performer over it in her racing days (placed in the Lowther and Cheveley Park); entries in the Richmond Stakes on Friday and the Champagne Stakes in September are indicators of the level this colt is expected to compete at in the not too distance future, and it would be a bit disappointing if he couldn't go very close to going one better here for it all it looks a good race for the grade.
The Richard Fahey-trained Garswood is a son of Dutch Art who is the first foal of a close relation to 7f 2yo debut/Nell Gwyn winner/1000 Guineas fourth Infallible, useful dual 7f winner Thrill and 7f 2yo fibresand winner New Decade and a half sister to fairly useful 7f-1m winner Chilled out of a high-class 5-6f winner (including at Listed level). He made his debut outing in a 6f median auction maiden at York a couple of weeks ago, sent off a well-fancied 2/1 market leader; raced prominently from the outset and travelled nicely for the most part, shaken up over a furlong out and trying to challenge the eventual winner entering the final furlong, unable to quicken and keeping on at the one pace as he came home in third behind Blaine (beaten 2 lengths). This colt has been very well talked up prior to his debut run, and he actually shaped with a significant amount of promise behind a winner that clearly knew his job to make all, coming 5 lengths clear of an 81-rated rival back in fourth. It is interesting that his top northern handler brings him down south for a maiden of this calibre, for all it must be remembered the much-vaunted Warcrown was a disappointment for them in this 12 months ago; however, unlike that colt, this son of Dutch Art has the benefit of experience to call on and, if improving as expected for that debut outing, it isn't hard to see him in the shake up come the business end of matters.
Richard Hannon is responsible for almost a third of the field and his first string appears to be the Richard Hughes-ridden Millers Wharf, a well-related son of Acclamation who made his debut outing in a course and distance maiden last month won by classy stablemate Olympic Glory, slowly away and towards the rear but making good headway to challenge on the outer well over a furlong out, unable to sustain his challenge inside the final 100 yards as he came home in fourth. His next outing saw him contest a four-runner 7f novices' contest at Ascot 11 days ago, for which he was sent off an 11/2 chance; raced keenly in behind the leader, ridden well over a furlong out and holding position without quickening until eventually weakening inside the final furlong to come home last of the four runners (beaten 3½ lengths). However, it was a very respectable effort from this colt against a trio of previous winners (runner-up has since landed a Listed Race in France), and this colt more than held his own for a long way until fading inside the final furlong to finish last behind a highly-rated stablemate. The step back in grade/distance will be very much in his favour here, and the fact that Richard Hughes opts to ride him over four others from the yard is perhaps telling; form of his maiden run here is also looking very good (winner successful at Group 2 level since and runner-up in the Coventry; third a dual winner since), and not too hard to see this colt playing a significant role at the sharp end of matters here.
The George Baker-trained Nenge Mboko is a son of Compton Place who made his debut outing in a 6f maiden at Salisbury towards the end of last month, sent off a wholly unconsidered 50/1 chance but actually shaping better than those odds implied he would, prominent on the outer and still holding some sort of chance approaching the final furlong, fading entering the final furlong to eventually come home in fifth behind Ask Dad (beaten 5¼ lengths). He duly built on that debut promise when contesting a soft-ground 6f auction maiden at Epsom a couple of weeks later, sent off a 17/2 chance; disputed the running with two others for much of the way, the trio breaking clear from the two furlong marker until this colt and eventual winner went on approaching the final furlong, staying on well for pressure but headed in the final 75 yards and coming home a neck down on Hipster at the post. It was a very respectable effort in defeat from this son of Compton Place, showing good speed throughout and only just giving second best close home, fully confirming his debut promise; questionable whether he has an awful lot more to come given he has looked very professional on both outings to date, and this does look the best race he has contested to date, but still respected on what he has managed to achieve to date and Frankie Dettori booked (5-18 for this yard in recent times; 2-6 on 2yos); stable's juveniles 0-13 this month.
The Marcus Tregoning-trained Saint Jermone is a son of Jeremy who is the second foal of a modest dual 10f winner who was a half sister to smart Italian 7f-1m 2yo winner (including at Listed level) Lucky Chappy (later placed at Grade 2/3 level in the US), Listed-placed triple 1m 3yo winner Granted and modest 12f-2m AW winner Ganymede out of a Rockfel Stakes winner who was a half sister to high-class German middle distance performer Fabriano. This colt made his debut outing in a 6f newcomers' maiden at Ascot on King George weekend nine days ago, sent off a 22/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders until ridden and outpaced well over a furlong from home, keeping on again close home to eventually finish in sixth behind Moohaajim (beaten 2¾ lengths). He hinted at ability on that occasion whilst also shaping as though another furlong would be needed before too long, tapped-for-toe once the pace lifted over a furlong from home but coming back at them near the finish to end up less than three lengths off the eventual winner. He could hardly have been found a tougher race in which to confirm the promise of that debut run, and this easier six furlongs is hardly likely to play to his strengths on the evidence of his debut run; stable won this in 2003 and improvement from their representative almost certain, but remains to be seen whether he can prove fully effective at this trip.
The John Gosden-trained Blessington is a son of Kheleyf who is a half brother to smart triple 5f winner (including at Listed level) Excelette and 9-12f winner Waahej, out of an unraced half sister to very smart multiple 5f winner (including the King's Stand and Temple Stakes) Bolshoi and to the dam of smart 7f performer Mine. This colt made his debut outing in a 6f maiden at Windsor a month ago, for which he was sent off a 6/1 chance; completely missed the break but had recovered to race in touch a couple of furlongs in, looking to make further progress up the rail over two furlongs out when badly hampered, switched left and keeping on for hands and heels throughout the final furlong to come home in sixth behind I'm Back (beaten 7¼ lengths). He can obviously be rated a fair bit better than the bare result, missing the break badly and then squeezed out when looking to make progress on the stands' side rail over two furlongs from home, far from knocked about thereafter but keeping on steadily throughout the final furlong. This looks a hot race in which to confirm the promise of that debut run, but represents top connections and boasts a smart sprinting pedigree; ought to improve significantly on what he was able to show first time up, and his yard won this in 2002 with subsequent Solario Stakes victor Foss Way.
There are some interesting newcomers in the field, the first of them being the Andrew Balding-trained Daylight, a son of Firebreak who is a half brother to Listed-placed 5-6f winner Day By Day, 10-12f 3yo winner My Daisychain, 5f 3yo winner Alexander Ballet and 1m 2yo AW winner Musical Day, out of a fairly useful triple 6f winner who was a half sister to US 10f Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon Stakes winner Spanish Fern and to the dam of Prix Jean Prat winner/St James's Palace third Lord Shanakill, family of Haafhd, Aviate etc. This colt sold for 70,000gns as a yearling and makes a fair amount of appeal on pedigree, the most notable of his winning siblings being the Listed-placed sprinter Day By Day, whilst his dam was a three-time winner at this distance and a half sister to a Grade 1 winner in the States who was herself the daughter of a half sister to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Al Bahathri (later dam of 2000 Guineas/Champion Stakes winner Haafhd). He is certainly bred to make his mark over sprint distances at two and is reportedly held in some regard by his handler, albeit he doesn't hold any Group-race entries this summer/autumn; stable's 2yos not quite made the impact that had been expected earlier in the year (though a couple have won on debut), and this looks a warm race in which to debut; interesting to see whether or not there is any significant market confidence behind him beforehand.
The Charlie Hills-trained African Oil is a son of Royal Applause who is a half brother to prolific 5-6f winner Athwaab and 7f-1m winner Muhandis, out of a 7f 3yo winner who was a half sister to 7-12f winner Hezaam and fair 7-10f winner El Dececy out of a useful 6-7f winner who was a full sister to top-class sprinter Elnadim and a half sister to the high-class Mehthaaf, later dam of the useful Tanaghum (herself dam of the smart middle distance stayer Tactic). This colt sold for €80,000 as a yearling (had gone for €65,000 as a foal) and makes some appeal on pedigree as a half brother a couple of fairly useful winners and out of a winning daughter of a sister to July Cup winner Elnadim. He comes from a stable that has sent out a handful of winning newcomers this term, including a couple of last week (majority of their successful debutantes have been very well found in the market beforehand); holds a Champagne Stakes entry himself and the yard saddled the runner-up in this race 12 months ago (newcomer), so interesting to see what the market has to say about this son of Royal Applause beforehand in light of the yard's recent achievements with well-supported newcomers.
The Clive Cox-trained Addictive Nature is a son of Acclamation who is a half brother to 1m 1f 3yo AW winner Arte Del Calcio out of a n unraced close relation to 6f 2yo Listed debut winner Desert Ease and a half sister to high-class multiple 7f-1m winner (including three times at Group 3 level) Two Twenty Two, fair Irish 7f-1m winner Easy Definition, 1m 3yo winner Clear Procedure, 14f 3yo winner Lord Dundee and to the dam of very smart US sprinter Dixieland Gold. This colt's sales price fluctuated on his three visits to the ring, bought back for £70,000 in early April but going for just £42,000 a few weeks later (withdrawn from a sale in May), but he certainly has the pedigree to make up into a two-year-old at around this distance, his dam a close relation of a smart sprinting juvenile and also the smart 7f-1m winner Two Twenty Two, family of a high-class US sprinter. He comes from a stable that seems to be back in form after a quiet period, and they currently house leading two-year-old Reckless Ambition; obviously got a good guide at home and so market support for this son of Acclamation would look very interesting, for all he will certainly need to be above average to topple a few of these with previous experience. _________________ Horses To Follow 2013 - Flat
9 go to post for this Orion Group Handicap Chase Class 3 race.And SOTOVIK from the A C Whillans stable is no world beater,at 11 years old still a good age for NH and should get competitive here.Its career form is 75PU13PUPU712PU4PU84PU1135(11)27PUF2PUU91532543511.A bit patchy but capable on its day of winning.
Its form however at PERTH is 5PU11213 which shows me it likes this course.Its form at PERTH Class 3 or below is PU1213 which is a big improvement.Its form at PERTH over 21f Class 3 is 11213,that is a 100 per cent place record,50 per cent win record at class 3 level over 21f at the course and that makes it a bet imo.
Its form over 24f Class 3 is 12.Its form racing after a 10-19 day break is 1121143.All these add up imo to a big positive for this runner.It is almost certain to stay the 3miles under these conditions,through a form line through Solway Bay has a chance against the short favourite,the claimer takes off 3 handy pounds and always rides this one,all in all should go close imo. _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**
A very good looking competitive handicap and many will go onto pattern company I think one horse here is well over priced and looks value for a place and gets the going and receives lots of weight off others which is crucial but lots in favour Likes soft and heavy going and with the mornings downpour it can only help Silken Thoughts won on ground like this last run of last season and on seasonal opener hacked up on this ground Comes well of the pace and will be finishing better then others so hopefully a fast pace will be set Cathy Gannon has a good record on this horse and won twice in three starts on the horse and second in the other"
I like look of lower weighted horses in the 2.00 at Goodwood and was searching for a big price to place in this race.
Las Verglas Star is possibly thrown in at 8 stone 3 and may well win but the price to me is not attractive enough. This typically looks like a Richard Fahey plan.
With the ground expected to ride slightly slower this may dull the finishing kick of the speed merchants and towards the bottom of the weights is Right Step at a huge price.
The run i like of this 5 year old is the 6th at Ascot in the Duke Of Edingburgh Handicap. Sandwiched between very poor runs at York which is the reason why we are getting such a big price.
Previous to this Right Step won on heavy at Epsom, so any more rain will be a bonus. Right Step has won over a variety of distances and has a decent top speed figure but ultimately it is the price of around 33/1 that first attracted me. i will be backing it Each Way.
Goodwood 2.00: Right Step@ 33/1 Each Way. _________________ OLBG Community Manager.
Cai Shen I have down as the most likely winner of this but with a couple of well weighted dangers in Oceanway and Kings Gambit, both at 20/1 and more I would be crazy not to cover them as well.
Hughes takes the ride on Cai Shen over King Torus, which is understandable after the latter's poor shows so far this year and questionable stamina. He has been performing at a higher level than this race over a mile so far this year but has proven that 10f is well within his capabilities. His 6th in the Royal Hunt Cup is close on the best handicap form in this race as well.
Oceanway has been raced over too far and/or on unsuitably soft going all season and as a result is 5lbs below his last winning mark (October last year). He has some fair course form when 4th last September to Circumvent (6lbs higher). He gets his conditions today and could be ready to put his previous runs behind him.
Kings Gambit is lightly raced for an 8yo, but has proven form at a good level (he only won a Group 3 last April) and as a result of a couple of poorer performances has been dropped quite a long way in the handicap. This is a career low mark and something tells me that today is the day he could bounce back to form.
Jacob Cats is the extremely hard to get away from here, after winning with authority lto and appearing to be ridden to just do enough. I have to put him in despite the price with two who are slightly less obvious perhaps but have claims.
Colour Guard is coming in for some support this morning and has been in my notebook for quite some time. He ran his best race for ages lto only 3 days ago, but Johnston horses are always tough as old boots and there is no doubt in my mind that this one will be ready to put in a display again today. It is worth mentioning that this one missed out on running in the Royal Hunt Cup by just 1 place and has been running consistently off marks in the 90's this season.
Right at the bottom of the weights Uppercut interests me as I see him as a horse which has improved from its first to its second run this year and could be spot on now. His 4th lto was in a hot Salisbury handicap, won by Trade Commissioner and whilst that form puts him right in this (in front of Norse Blues that day) I think there's a chance he could be better again.
17:25 - ALBANY ROSE @ 12/1, LONG AWAITED @ 20/1, ARCTIC FEELING @ 20/1
Three against the field here is lead by Albany Rose who, by my reckoning is the only one of these who could really go on to prove to be better than this level of race. Two of her previous 3 races have been in listed events and the other was in a better handicap than this where she performed with real credit on reappearance. She loves 5f and if she can improve on that run she could be very difficult to catch.
Long Awaited and Arctic Feeling both come with issues. Long Awaited looked like he was going places earlier in the year but, after meeting trouble in running in the Epsom Dash, threw in a couple of bad efforts at York and Newmarket. I'm sure he is overpriced here though with the first time blinkers on, given the fact that he really didn't get up the dip at HQ lto and was just challenging at the time. This is about the same kind of level.
Arctic Feeling has been a notebook horse for as long as I remember and has won me a couple of quid along the way as well as throwing in some shockers. His key problem is the fact that he has an awful habit of fluffing the start and getting outpaced early (he did this in the Dash actually coincidentally) but I have to take a saver because if he breaks on terms he is now 20lbs lower than his career high mark, as well as 2lbs lower than his highest winning mark this year (admittedly in a much easier race). With a bit of money around I am taking the last 20's.
Good luck all _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
Hopefully today is the day that Cai Shen gets his head in front having run many eye catching races over the last 12 months or so. Cai Shen has only ever contested one 10f handicap in his career and that was a messy race and easily forgiven, it's his runs in mile handicaps which suggest a mark of 105 isn't beyond him. He came second in last year's Britannia Handicap off 101, running on very strongly suggesting a step up in trip would suit. His run off 105 in the Golden Mile again suggested this mark wasn't beyond him, especially with a step up in trip likely to suit and he again created the same impression in the Royal Hunt Cup when a running on 6th, disadvantaged by the draw on that occasion. The 3rd, 4th and 8th have all come out and won and at the very least I expect Cai Shen to go very close here.
5.25 Goodwood Hamoody
Hamoody looked as though he was being laid out for this race last year until appearing to have a set back (wasn't seen from 30th June 2011 until the start of this season) and he ran several eye catching races in defeat off a mark of 85, 3lbs higher than when winning this race two years ago. He has had a similar campaign this season, on his only start on good to firm ground he finished 3rd off 85 and he runs today off 77, 5lbs lower than when winning this race two years ago. He has unsuitably soft ground to thank for that dropping mark and on a decent surface he looks very well handicapped today, especially when his Goodwood record reads a Group 2 victory as a 2yo, a 2nd off 88 in a class 3 handicap, a win off 82 in this race 2 years ago and then a midfield effort in the Stewards Cup just a day later off 85. If I had to pick a negative it would be that Hamoody is probably better over 6f than 5f but the fact that he has won this race before off a higher mark suggests that isn't too much of a worry. Hopefully he wins this and makes it into the Stewards consolation race on Saturday.
Sire Antonius Pius has only had 1 winner here from 19 runs, that one being 25/1 so an unexpected winner at that.
Trainer Rae Guest has a poor record with favourites in selling stakes with only 1 win from 5 runs.
Selection has only really raced on softer ground so (125/1 on only raced on good ground), so has plenty of prove in handling this faster surface.
Plenty against her today for me, and she should be a nice Lay. Has been nicked in from 2/1 to 6/4 so far, and I think she will come in a bit further before the off so I'm inclined to take the SP on her.
The Tiger comes here on the back of a very striking performance at Ripon at the beginning of the month. His first race since last April he was slowly away in the rear and got squeezed up a little when challenging before the furlong pole before running on strongly. Coming clear with the runner up, who has since ran well again in a handicap off 79. There were signs of greenness on what was only his second start and he should improve today from that and from the step up in trip which should be well within his scope.
Trainer Ed Dunlop has a good record at this track with 8 winners from 35 runners (22.90% @ +12.21). That record is in line with the fact he rarely sends runners up to Scotland without a chance, and his record at Scottish tracks is 19 wins from 76 runs (25.00% SR). A booster stat for this selection is that 20 of his runners sent to Scotland who have gone off favourite have produced 12 wins (60.00% SR). Sire Tiger Hill also has a 25% strike rate with his progeny here after 3 wins from 12 runs producing a great +41.00LSP.
Euston Square's staying on neck second at Haydock on his penultimate start from just 1lb lower gives me the most concern as you can ignore his last run on heavy
Didn't have the speed to cope with the drop down to 5 furlongs a couple of weeks ago. Has won 3 times this season from 4 attempts over 6 furlongs staying on strongly each time (only loss after coming away from the stalls slowly) and breeding would suggest he should just about get this 7 furlong trip as him Dam was a Group class sprinter who also placed in a Listed 8 furlong race at 3, whilst he's also half-brother to 3 black types over 6 to 10 furlongs. However, he doesn't have the stamina influence from his sire Acclamation (progeny best at 5f-6f), so 7 furlongs would look to be he maximum distance, but I think he'll get it the way he stays 6f. The ground will be no issue have won on both soft and good this year.
Trainer Ed Dunlop has a good record at this track with 8 winners from 35 runners (22.90% @ +12.21). That record is in line with the fact he rarely sends runners up to Scotland without a chance, and his record at Scottish tracks is 19 wins from 76 runs (25.00% SR).
Sun Tzu's record on ground softer than good is 2-3-17.
Compared to when on good ground of 5-2-14.
Which is a good ground strike rate of 35.71% against 11.76% on softer, and a 50.00% place rate against 29.41%.
Moreso, he has only increased his rating once on softer ground compared to 5 times on good.
I think this horse is a far better prospect on better ground, and whilst the going should remain on the soft side I think there are a couple of strong contenders with soft ground form who can at the least make a race of it.
An easy winner last time out, and 6/4 so far this morning. I think he'll take some money this afternoon, and will take the SP. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
This is a good trial for the St Leger and many of these look very good and can see a cracking race on show today I am taking on the three market fancies with a horse who needs to step up on what it has shown but lots of improvement to come and well thought off Only had three starts but is getting better and despite only winning a handicap last time it won easy in the end and with lots up its sleeve Was supplemented for the Group One Racing Trophy but was lame but connections must have fancied it and rate it to pay out 20,000 pound Zarooni has a 31% strike rate with three year olds at this track so does not send them for nothing
Alot of good vibes was said about this horse before its injury and kept in training so lets see what the horse can really do
Going to have a little bet on the GOLDIE runner here.Any way may not be the forelorn hope th ebetting suggest.Was well supported last time out but did not appear to enjoy it and finished 7 lengths behind UNCLE BRIT at Ayr on the 23rd July.But the support suggests to me it does have a win it here especially as UNCLE BRIT has went on to win again.
The Favourite here is ODYSEY at 2-1 but earlier this month LETS FACE FACTS finished just half a length behind that runner at this track over 7f on good ground,and is now in receipt of 6 more pounds surely enough pull to get it on terms or beat it over the extra furlong.Also finished behind EMERALDS SPIRIT another of the favourites at AYR over 7f earlier in JULY,but was just a neck in it and gets a little weight pull here,worth small bet imo. _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**
Have been keeping an eye on this horse since the beginning of last season when he ran 2 very good races in the Thirsk Hunt Cup when 3rd to Justonefortheroad btn just 2 lengths from a mark off 92, and subsequently when a decent 5th to Smarty Socks btn 2 lengths over 7fs at Doncaster off 91. Largely campaigned over further afterwards 10fs but still managed some decent performances notably when btn a hd by Dhualar Dar at Doncaster on his last appearance from 84.
His best form has been shown on a Good-GF surface and has had to race on a soft going surface on his last 3 runs resulting in a drop in the ratings to todays 75, a stone less than he had in his best runs last year. Mick Easterby is nobodys fool and horse is dropped back to its winning distance today. Although this race looks competative its a positive that this horse has been backed in this am, a return to form looks likely.
7:00 Perth - Sean Airgead @ 9/2 (5pt Win NAP)
"Gordon Elliott brings Lord Redsgirth here and it is always dangerous opposing this yard at this track and this runners last three runs here at Perth produce form of 122 but I am not sure the minimum trip suits him and the yard are not in the greatest of form so I am going with recent Uttoxeter winner Sean Airgead in this one. This runner was unlucky not to win on his chasing debut at Hexham when beaten by Flinty Bay right on the line but he went to Uttoxeter next time out to make his handicap debut over fences and this produced a win so from two starts over fences he has put in two good performances and I believe he can continue that today. He is stepping down in trip today but already a winner over this trip over hurdles and a previous winner here at Perth over hurdles too, ground will not be a problem and no seven pound rise in the handicaps today because he is back out of handicap company to run in this race. It does look a tricky little race but for me Sean Airgead can follow up on his Uttoxeter success and keep his chasing record going well with another win here today."
Morawij is all the rage but Dylanbaru will finally bad a big race and make up for some unlucky runs but is so consistent and always runs well Dylanbaru ran in a hot maiden on debut when fourth but Dawn Approach has franked the form and still unbeaten and Canary Row who was second looks very good and only just beat by Dawn Approach Dylanbaru hacked up on second start but flopped on third start behind Canary Row but hated heavy ground so ignore the run Fourth start second to good Cay Verde and last start ran a cracker and showed how good the horse is when third at Ascot in the Windsor Castle behind Hototo who won it but my selection was given too much to do Dylanbaru will need luck in running but if gaps appear then will be finishing fast and could take some stopping "
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