Horse racing discussion - Saturday 14th July

[budgie27]

I had an ante post bet on Soul in the July Cup and the fact he runs at Newbury now should be a pointer to his chances, seems strange that he dodges a race that his owner sponsors where I gave him a chance following his pretty good run in the Golden Jubilee where he put the pace up to Black Caviar and only folded in the last 150 yards. He'd have to have a chance in his race. It was interesting to read that Sepoy might be taken out of the July Cup if the going was very soft and he is to be retired after the race to stand at stud in Australia at a jaw breaking $66K. I guess the July Cup will need a horse to break an OR around 118 to win and the way I see it the three horses most likely to achieve that figure would be Strong Suit, Society Rock and Sepoy. I'm going to discount Bated Breath as he may not run or if he does and the ground is soft I actually see him running closer to 110 than 120. Strong Suit would seem to have strong credentials to hit a mark around 118 on his Newmarket form over the course in October and at Chantilly in July last year. Sepoy would make the mark easily on his G1 winning form in Australia but you have to wonder if different time zones will bother him and a cursory look over his form in oz does make you wonder as to some connections thoughts that he is the best since Choisir. If he is on song he could be in the mix up (and the fact they rely on him when Soul seemed to have reasonable credentials probably means he has worked well can he transfer that to the course?) . Society Rock is a solid yardstick but 5-1 seems plenty skinny to me. I can see some of the less fancied (and lower rated runners) getting into the mix if we get genuinely soft ground and you can make a case for The Cheka (33-1), Sirius Prospect (14-1), Fire Lily (16-1) and Mayson (25-1) in something like that order in the value stakes. I worry about Strong Suits American breeding on the likely ground but he looks the better value of those at the top of the market and I couldn't help having a sneaky EW on The Cheka (despite rumours in the yard not all well) in the hope it turns up Heavy on the day at 33-1. Olympic Glory was a horse I was looking forward to coming out but he is currently 4/7 on BF so of course wouldn't be a bet, the Hannons having a winner on Thursday was a good sign and if he is a proper price (Evens?) on the day looks a class above this lot in the Superlative stakes.

Just adding in Ortensia they were worried about the ground at Ascot well this surely will be against her albeit she raced right away from the pace in Kings Stand and can be rated better than that effort. Dandy Boy a fine effort in the Wokingham but a shock result can he reproduce on softer ground and will that be good enough anyway on softer ground? Libranno might be interesting but his form on soft ground (if that is what it is come Saturday not more than 50% at this stage) would inspire little confidence. Surely a substandard renewal no matter what wins unless Society Rock or Bated Breath or Sepoy or Strong Suit win convincingly.

Strong Suit and Bated Breath possibly doubtful runners according to trainers.

[budgie27]

Olympic Glory closer to 2-1 now which is tempting, Maxentius looked a horse of lots of potential on his last run would he be able to reproduce that run on soft ground and will OG, Artigiano is next in ratings (form) but a USA breeding might mean he'll be all at sea on this ground. Birdman won on heavy last time despite not having an action that might suit it (close coupled and goodish action). Might be a race to avoid?

[budgie27]

PP are going 9/4 on Soul for the Hackwood at Newbury and despite the fact is bigger than I would have expected looks a reasonable bet given as I said above I thought he would run well in the July Cup, has some decent opposition but if handling conditions (breeding suggests more likely to than not) this could be a penalty kick despite the three behind him in the betting have to be given respect. I make him an under 2/1 shot so 9/4 is a bit of value. Races are clearly not won on ratings but he is 4lbs clear on OR, the same on RPR and five clear on TF ratings and hits (for me a good guide) the TFW average of 132 (Firebeam would be 1lb lower than any winner in the past five years). Hopefully SDS will hold to him a little bit to conserve him (Frankie blasted off a bit at Ascot and I felt he could have been close up to Black Caviar there if not used up a little too much early) that form surely the mark to aim at in this race? Maarek the biggest danger followed by Firebeam.

[budgie27]

In a match bet between Olympic Glory and Maxentius I have to say that I would be in favour of OG the main reason being that Max looks to have a fast ground action whereas OG looks to have an action that will (maybe) adapt better to the likely softer conditions - I see Aidan has napped Max (and he does look a class act) so it's each to their own but with little form to go on you have to make a decision and I just believe that OG could be less inconvenienced by the ground ??? Both horses look likely to improve for the step up to 7f (more so Max given his breeding) but perhaps OG will prove pacier on the day given he is more sprint accented in his breeding? On good ground I think there would be little in it - if Coventry runners do have a poor record then again it's a limited bet. Aidan what are the stats for Coventry runners up running in this race? Timeform have it as below with an average of 118 and best winner of five years 122 (I don't think that I would much trust in their ratings now as you might have done in the past given that they have analysts that are not as strong as they used to be):

OG 127
Art 116p
Max 114p
LoB 110p
Bird 107p

I doubt OG has an 11 point differential but interesting that he would beat the last five winners on his rating by 5 or more points.

TRW 116 116 118 117 122 (Av 118)

[budgie27]

From the RP:

Charlton has issued concerns about soft ground for his King's Stand Stakes second and said Abdullah will decide if the general 4-1 favourite will take his place in the field for the Group 1 sprint on Saturday.
Bated Breath, who might otherwise have to wait for the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes, is due to face 14 rivals on Saturday and Charlton said: "He is favourite for a Group 1 and my inclination is to let him take his chance because York could be as bad but we will have to wait until tomorrow.

"Like most horses he would prefer faster ground. He has run on soft ground before and won well. It's just not to his advantage.


Roger Charlton: will let owner Khalid Abdullah make the decision


PICTURE: Mark Cranham

"The horse is not going to come to any harm running on the ground - that's not the issue - it's just he may not produce his best and I guess when a horse is about to be a stallion, you wonder whether that's sensible or not."

Strong Suit, who was supplemented by connections at the start of the week, may also miss the £400,000 contest because of the ground, which is likely to remain soft despite a threat of overnight rain.

Clerk of the course Michael Prosser said: "The track has taken all the rain that we had well and we have been very lucky that it has been dry today.

"I am loathe to change the ground until the morning as there is a threat of showers overnight. Saturday's forecast is for a warmer day with sunny breaks and showers."

The horse is about to be a stallion quote is an interesting one - my advice is if you can still get on without R4 then do it, though it's probably to late already. BTW I have revised my thinking and I wouldn't be surprised if a horse wins this closer to 115 as a mark and I think BB can run to 117 perhaps so if he runs isn't a complete forlorn hope as I made him out to be. He is 9/2 with PP now 1/4 odds 3 places and perhaps that can be a reasonable price as he has some chance of winning - I do wonder though if he does not win will he place (money back now if he does not run). 3-1 was a bit silly but 9-2 tempting? Anyway not for me 33-1 EW and lots of rain will make me happy!

[aidanldrebin]

Budgie, since Surbiton won in 2001, the record of Coventry runners in the Superlative is 0-6. Chesham Stakes representatives also have a modest record in the past decade (King Torus in 2010 the exception), as do winners of the 7f maiden at Sandown won by Operation Chariot last month.
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[budgie27]

Aidan - thanks an interesting race where there could be a surprise - I still wonder what those Coventry runners had achieved prior to coming here. I thought that the Coventry was a strong race this year (definitely compared to last years but still to be proven as C Colombo was beaten lto). The form from last years Cov was poor - I was just taken by OGs run in the Coventry and I decided to back him in his next race - this is it and it remains to be seen whether he is up to winning this given he was 20-1 last time and seemingly a second string for the yard. OC looked an interesting runner - what are your thoughts as to Max running on the ground I thought he looked like he might struggle due to his action but perhaps he will have the class to overcome what I perceive to put him at a disadvantage. I did put up King Torus on that day but I have no inside info on the Hannon stable. No it was in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood where I said he could not be beaten at 11/4 and sluiced up by 6 lengths - a rare example of me getting it right as he was a max on the day!!

[budgie27]

This came from a time when I was far more bolshy - amazing what a baby will do for your perspective - I was right though re CP and KT's chances in the race lol oops anyway

http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=31793&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

Proves nothing other than we all have differing opinions and I like it a bit more when I was more of a newby - I feel a little more responsibility on mu first time posts on a Saturday = last week a 7/2 and an 8/1 winner with no money on - stronger bets this week (ie money on) most likely without a show.

I love the fact no one said oh well done budgie but I could not give a f%%% - I think there are a few people that have a listen and I have to say I only really use these posts to bounce off and have a think about what I bet. Do you know why I think that is - most people prefer to be steered than think. I would have put Siyoumi (I made mention) at 33-1 EW giving you a nice profit but I didnt bother because some would probably expect it to win...Anyway don't worry I am going to keep bothering you

[smeemartin]

In the C 3-25 Brian Meehan runs Mortitia who is a stone cold rag in this race, its his only runner today and missed a fairly easy handicap at yarmouth to take part in this, it makes absolutely no logic at all and it has the worst of the draw, but I just feel that he is not sending it here for a day out and also it runs in a 1st time tongue tie, just on the face of it , it needs to improve at least a stone to take this (even from a decent draw), if it was out just to get a rating drop would they bother with the tt ?.
its always been campaigned at a high level although not won since its maiden win 2 yrs ago.
this is not a tip, just an observation, have to keep an eye on this for the future.

[budgegraham]

brilliant conversation...but the clues are as follows...........Dandy Boy sold for an insamountable amount of cash to the Darley stud...running in the Darley July cup..come on you would have to be blind to not spot this plot...

[itsfreeusee]

Sepoy, will win the big race lads nearly all its form in Australia was on gd sft and soft ground and was talked about being one of the best over there and Frankie seemd very hush hush about it on the morning line.
Also Frankie, has never won that trophy and I am sure he would love too before he retires and money is flying in for the horse I am going too grab the price before shortens up anymore it wins

[trebormint]

smeemartin

this is what meehan says about mortitia on his website

MORTITIA (Chester 3.25 p.m.) Talented filly missed her intended Yarmouth handicap assignment in favour of this Listed race. Seven furlongs seems to suit her, but whether her wide draw will prove an insurmountable disadvantage has to be seen.