Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:16 pm Post subject: Selections for FRIDAY 13th
If you throw enough darts you will eventually hit the bull and this is the case with M Johnson. He is woefully out of form but it must surely only a matter of time before one goes in and what a stage for this to happen. The horse in question is Van Ellis the horse travelled like as dream before pulling clear by 2l what he beat was a well regaurded sort from C Hills team, but the other horse he beat was a nice sort from the Willy Haggas yard Well Painted whom himself has been contesting some good races. I think the form is quite strong and the fact this horse scored easily 13 days ago surley there has not been enough time inbeetween races to go out of form. Also that race was over 7 furlongs and the drop in trip on softer ground is definately in his favour. He will be travelling and finishing when all around are struggling. This represents a value bet with alot in our favour. the dangers come from sholan who also likes it soft but I think he has peaked were our selection is definatly getting better. Mince ran a stinker last time when fancied and there was no apparent excuses. I am confident on a scale from 1 -10 and it is a 9.
I was very tempted by van Ellis myself. But if sholaan is the danger then glen moss cannot be overlooked. He now has a 12lbs pull on sholaan for a defeat that wasn't 12lbs impressive. I've got glrn moss at a great 11-1 !!
Joined: 08 Oct 2009
Location: Asking Big Bucks to finish Grand Crus
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:42 pm Post subject:
1.20 NEWMARKET - FREE VERSE An interesting handicap to begin preceedings at the flat headquarters but one where i cannot see an obviously well handicapped horse. The rain has obviously left soft ground and that is unlikely to change overnight. The selection is the Richard Hannon trained Free Verse. This horse has two wins to its name, and was a well regarded juvenile at one point being pitched in at listed level. Things haven't gone to plan however and this is the team's chance to get things back on track. The horse's best form is on rain softened ground and considering the horse has won over seven furlongs, this looks the optimum distance despite running well over further and shorter. The horse ran well in a class two event first time out this season off a mark of 85 and that suggested the mark was a winning one but in two efforts since the horse has not been disgraced as it has been bumping into multiple winners that are proving progressive types. So it is definitely interesting that the handicapper hasn't raised the horse in the weights. I find it a very clever move that they reach for a 5lb claimer, considering the horse has form closely tied with Salford Art who is now off 107, making Free Verse well handicapped. Considering that form and the fact a claimer takes 5lbs off and the fact that we know the horse has won off a mark of 83 and taking into account the 5lb drop is running of 80. Makes the horse 3lbs well handicapped at least. From a powerful yard, should be able to make a mark here, and in my opinion may be underestimated in the betting.
1.50 NEWMARKET - REBELLIOUS GUEST An intriguing sprint handicap indeed for the track this afternoon again on soft conditions, and there are many well known sprint handicappers in opposition. If Richard Fahey has found the key for Gatepost then that horse would pick them up and carry them on old form however the one that intrigued me the most was the horse Rebellious Guest. An interesting contender from a small yard ridden by Tom Queally. This horse has been pitched at seriously high levels in the past however if we take out the group runs then we have an improving unbeaten contender entering a handicap and if that was the case, this horse would be favourite. It is clear the yard think a little bit of the horse and the fact that the horse has won a maiden and a decent class three event suggests that a class two event would not be out of range however group competition might be. Both starts this season the horse has ran so keen over seven furlongs that it would be boldly obvious that he would not make it home, so the drop back to six furlongs definitely suits, and considering the horse has won twice over the trip, it is the main thing to do. The horse wasn't beaten far at Ascot over the seven furlongs by Ishvana so that was still a decent effort. However, i do think the horse would find a handicap more suitable and based on the non group company efforts, the horse clearly is progressing and has a decent chance and is value at the prices. _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
The race formerly known as the Strutt & Parker Maiden Stakes has produced the likes of Alhaarth, who beat fellow top-class performer Mark Of Esteem in this in 1995, Bahhare, Haami, Nimello, Dubai Destination, Belenus, Rio De La Plata, Elusive Pimpernel and Native Khan, and this year's renewal looks to be well up to standard with a clutch of well-bred newcomers representing powerful stables and one or two showing promise already.
The selection is a son of Elusive Quality who is the second foal of an unraced half sister to smart 8-10f winner Alvarita, Group 2-placed 10f 3yo winner Albion and 1m 1f 3yo AW winner Albaraka out of dual Champion Stakes heroine Alborada who was herself a half sister to top-class 7-12f winner (including three times at Group 1 level in Germany) Albanova, useful dual 12f 3yo winner Alakananda (later dam of Derby runner up Dragon Dancer and very useful middle distance/staying performer Ajaan), useful 1m-2m winner Alanbrooke, dual 12f 3yo winner Alba Stella and useful dual purpose performer Albinus, family of Yesterday, Aussie Rules, Allegretto etc. This well-bred colt sold for 180,000gns at auction and is trained by John Gosden, clearly making a significant amount of appeal on pedigree as the second foal of a daughter of dual Champion Stakes winner Alborada, herself a very well related sort who has produced a trio of winners (two smart). He ought to prove capable of making an impact at two at around this distance, and the standard of his work at home in recent weeks has reportedly been well above average, hence his debut outing coming in a traditionally strong race. His stable could hardly be in better form of late, and this is around the time of the season when they start unleashing their better class of youngster and start hitting the target on a regular basis, particularly with their newcomers; no surprise to see this well-connected colt make a winning start to his career here.
The Aidan O'Brien-trained Afonso De Sousa is a son of Henrythenavigator who is a half brother to Kentucky Derby/Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown, 12f 3yo winner My Chestnut Girl, multiple US 8-9f winner Snake River Canyon and US 1m 3yo winner Gilded Profile, out of a US 1m winner who was out of a useful UK/US 6f-1m winner. This $300,000 purchase made his debut outing in a 6f maiden at the Curragh last month, for which he was sent off a 10/1 chance (stable second string); tracked the leaders throughout the early stages but raced in mid-division by halfway, ridden three furlongs out and unable to quicken initially, but he gradually got the hang of things and kept on nicely inside the final furlong to take third behind Rawaaq (beaten 7 lengths). He shaped as though the experience would do him the power of good, prominent early but losing his good early position and looking held in midfield around two furlongs out, but he gradually warmed to the task and kept on well for vigorous hand riding to make the frame. He was beaten a fair way in the end, but the fifth won next time out and his pedigree points to significant improvement, particularly now upped in distance to seven furlongs; has the benefit of experience over most of these, and normal improvement on his debut effort ought to see him on the premises.
The Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained Requested is a son of Dubawi who is a half brother to 12-13f AW winner Nando's Dream, 14f 3yo winner Dream Spinner, bumper winner Seraglio and 2m 1f hurdle winner Dream Along, out of a 10f 3yo debut winner who later placed at Listed level over 10/12f and who was a half sister to smart sprinting duo Struggler and Vision Of Night and high-class German middle distance performer Baroon. This colt made his debut outing in a 6f maiden at Haydock at the beginning of June, for which he was sent off a 9/1 chance; raced keenly in touch in midfield, travelling strongly until the two furlong marker but unable to quicken once asked initially, staying on well throughout the final furlong to eventually take third behind Master Of War (beaten 3¼ lengths). This colt is bred to excel over a lot further than the six furlong distance he debuted over, and the manner in which he travelled for two-thirds of the race offered plenty of encouragement for the future, unable to quicken initially before keeping on nicely inside the final furlong to take third. He is entitled to improve for the experience, and his pedigree is a strong indicator of the extra furlong in distance here suiting well; stable in good form at present and not hard to see their representative going well.
There are several interesting newcomers in the field other than the selection, the first of them being the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Evangelist, a son of Oasis Dream who is the foal of a high-class 7-14f winner (including at Group 2/3 level) who was a half sister to the very useful dual 12f winner Warringah (Listed placed), quite useful 8-12f winner Jedi and 12f 3yo winners Cops And Robbers, Rye House and Ship's Biscuit out of a very useful 1m 3yo debut winner who was from the family of Generous, Imagine, Triptych etc. This colt makes obvious appeal on pedigree, being the first foal of connections' Park Hill winner Hi Calypso, herself a half sister to a handful of winners for them including the useful pair Jedi and Warringah, and the extended family includes very smart performers such as Derby/King George hero Generous and Oaks winner Imagine. It is obviously encouraging that he debuts in a race of this nature so early, given that his pedigree strongly suggests he will prove better over middle distances further down the line, for all his sire is a speed influence. However, his powerful stable hasn't got anywhere near hitting full stride with its youngsters so far in 2012 (0-8), one or two falling below market expectations; interesting if he were to come in for significant pre-race market support, but otherwise probably best watched with an eye to the future, though it is worth noting that his dam was a winner under soft conditions over this distance at two (second time out).
The Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained Improvisation is a son of Teofilo who is a half brother to the smart 8-10f winner (including at Group 3 level) Puncher Clynch out of a maiden half sister to smart 11-14f Flat (including at Listed level)/smart 2m hurdler Self Defense, 2m 3f hurdle/2m 4f-3m chase winner Sarando and the dam of Leger runner-up The Last Drop out of a half sister to Irish Oaks winner Princess Pati and high-class middle distance performer Seymour Hicks. This colt sold for 200,000gns as a yearling and makes plenty of appeal on pedigree, being a half brother to Ballysax Stakes winner Puncher Clynch and out of a maiden half sister to smart middle distance Listed Flat winner/smart 2m hurdler Self Defense, from a very smart middle distance family including an Irish Oaks winner. He comes from a stable that dominated two-year-old maidens here last summer, sending out several newcomers to make winning debuts, and it seems as though they have picked up where they left off, landing the fillies' maiden here on Thursday and also a similar contest a couple of weeks ago; ought to prove capable of making an impact at two, and it is interesting that he is ridden by Mickael Barzalona.
The Luca Cumani-trained Elhaame is a son of Acclamation who is the second foal of a fairly useful 8-10f winner who was a half sister to Group 3/Listed-placed 1m 2yo winner Menokee, 7f 3yo winner Give Him Credit and 7f 2yo AW winner Magic Doll out of a full sister to smart 8-10f winner (including twice at Listed level) Kammtarra and a half sister to top-class middle distance performer Lammtarra, smart 7f-1m winner (including at Group 3 level) Saytarra and Listed-placed 8-10f winner Abhisheka. This colt fetched 160,000gns as a yearling at auction and hails from an excellent family, his dam a useful performer at up to 10f who was a half sister to a handful of winners and out of a half sister to Derby/King George/Arc hero Lammtarra and several other at least useful performers. His sire injects some much needed speed/precocity into the mix, and the mere fact that his handler sees fit to bring him here to make his debut suggest he has done everything right at home so far; however, the yard's newcomers tend to improve significantly for the experience these days (0-6 with 2yos so far this term) and more than likely this colt will improve greatly for the overall experience, so another that is best watched unless meeting with significant and sustained support beforehand.
The Charlie Hills-trained Country Western is a son of Oasis Dream who is a half brother to 5f 2yo winner Musical Valley out of a maiden sister to Champagne/Dewhurst winner Distant Music and 10f 3yo winner Fragrant View and a half sister to 10f 3yo winner/Lancashire Oaks third New Orchid (later dam of top-class sprinter African Rose and high-class 6f-1m 2yo winner (including at Group 3/Listed level)/Prix Marcel Boussac runner-up Helleborine) and dual 12f 3yo winner Mirthful out of a half sister to top-class US middle distance performer Vanlandigham. This colt is another to catch the eye on breeding, his dam not really producing of note as of yet but herself a very well related sort, being a full brother to connections' top-class juvenile Distant Music and a half sister to their useful New Orchid, later dam of Sprint Cup winner African Rose. His pedigree is geared towards him proving fully effective as a two-year-old, perhaps even over a furlong shorter than the seven furlongs he tackles here, and his entry in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes next month indicates he has shown plenty at home. His stable has introduced a handful of winning newcomers already this term so ought to know where they stand with this son of Oasis Dream; market support for this well-connected colt would look significant given he hails from a stable that houses one or two nice juveniles.
The Roger Charlton-trained Dundonnell is a US-bred son of First Defence who is the seventh foal of an unraced sister to top-class sprinter/2000 Guineas third Danehill, very smart US miler Eagle Eyed, very smart multiple 7f winner (including at Group 3/Listed level) Shibboleth and smart 5-7f US winner Harpia (Grade 2 placed). This colt makes some appeal on pedigree, his dam a full sister to a handful of at least high-class performers, most notably the excellent sprinter Danehill and also very smart US miler Eagle Eyed, but she has proved something of a failure as a broodmare to date, with those of her offspring that have made it to the track achieving very little. However, this colt debuts in a race that his astute handler won in 2004, also sending out the runner-up in 2007 with the useful Fifteen Love for this owner; reportedly well regarded, and although the yard only had its first juvenile runner at the beginning of this week, his handler has shown he can get them ready to strike at the first time of asking; interesting to see how he goes in the market beforehand.
The James Tate-trained Mirsaale is a son of Sir Percy who is a half brother to high-class 12-14f winner (including at Group 2/3 level)/disqualified Oaks runner-up Meeznah and quite useful 10-14f winner Lady Rosamunde, quirky but middle distance/staying performer Shahin (1m 2yo winner on second start) and 7f 3yo winner Lyric Art, out of a very useful middle distance performer who was the daughter of a high-class middle distance performer who placed in the Irish Oaks. This colt sold for just 50,000gns as a yearling but makes his fair share of appeal on pedigree, the most notable of his four winning siblings being Park Hill victor/disqualified Oaks second Meeznah, whilst another of his relations was 1m 2yo winner Shahin (later smart over middle/staying distances). His pedigree suggests further will be required before too long, and his handler has already shown in the short time he has held a permit that he doesn't tend to have his newcomers fully wound up for action; best watched unless the market strongly suggests otherwise. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Just to ad my veiws as budgegraham already put this up but i picked out be for i saw this page.
Newmarket 13:50 Van Elliis
Think this will become one to watch out for and is begining to be one of my favs with only 7 runs so far. Backed last time out when 1st at chester once clear and had room went well and won by 2 lengths in the end. Same class and weight as today but ground might be abit soft as last time out was on good ground but has come a good 6th of 13th om soft ground 3 runs back at this distance and class with same jockey J Fanning who also won last time out. _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
5 30 Y DUTCH ROSE if you think this is between dutch rose and trail blaze form through annie walker is interesting dutch rose beat annie walker by 8 3/4 L on g/s giving it a lb trail blaze beat it by 4 1/2 L giving it 10lb today with the lads claim he carries 13lb less than trail blaze imo she should win
An excellent write up as usual by Aidan for this contest and I suppose there is little for me to add to his summary - however one that catches my attentiion both on pedigree and for the future when stepped up in trip is the Ed Dunlop trained Contributer. A nicely bred son of High Chaparral out of a mare that won 3 from 4 over ten furlongs for Pascal Bary - including a Listed & Group 3 contest. It comes as no surprise to me that his trainer chooses to start the colt off over seven furlongs as given his bloodlines it would be unlikely that he posesses the pace to win over shorter trips. The race is full off uncertainties given the minimum amount of form to go by - with only four of the field having already seen a racecourse but it is a race to watch many times over with the coming months in mind ; I'd be surpised if we don't see plenty of future winners on show here today. As I've already stated my choice in this - Contibuter - should prove better over further in time ; that is not to say that he won't be able to perform with credit on his debut over this trip and although I'm often unwilling to bet on debutants the top quote of 40/1 with Boylesports will hopefully make the risk worth taking. A place would be nice and a win today would be a huge bonus.
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 10:51 am Post subject:
7:05 Chester - Jwala (2pt Win NAP @ 9/4)
"(Jwala 2pt Win) Jwala was struggling to win a race and although she went close a couple of time over 6f the step down to 5f two starts ago have worked great and it can continue here today. She went close a couple of time on the all-weather over 6f but her two starts on the turf over that trip were both disappointing, she was then at the back end of last year switched down to 5f to run at Wolverhampton on the all-weather and things clicked into place when she ended up a comfortable winner that day. She was then off the track for six months before making her three year old debut at Bath last month, she remained over 5f and this time she opened her turf account on good to soft ground. This is a runner who has featured in a listed race in the past so must be fairly well thought of and she is up in class here today to run in a class three races, the handicapper has put her up 6lbs for her win last month but for me neither of those are not going to be enough to halt her progress here today with the ground and trip to suit I believe that she will be capable of landing at hat-trick with Sonko coming home second best." _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
1 20nm RIOT OF COLOUR 5/1 hard to see this being out of the frame after watching its last run here 1/2 L behind perfect step fav here now nr then clear of the rest stormed up the hill won lto with bunkaru 3rd 5Lwinner since step up in class but could be up to it very game
3 10Y BLUE LOTUS 4/1 impressed me lto with gutsy win from boom and bloom and mandys lexi only a nk beind hototo r ascot winner since dont like how forray carried head lto near line
3 45Y BRIDLE BELLE 11/2 came through to win the race at this distance and drew clear with qahriman only to run out of steam last f good draw
5 20NM JACKS REVENGE 7/1 if ever a horse was made for the r moore hold up drive this is it fallon nearly did it but went to soon, hughes did it perfect lto ,needs to be covered up so hold your breath
hughes gos to newbury for me as to be the bet of the day
3 25 RHAMNUS just watch this lto awesome
1.20 Free Verse, deserves another chance It's win at Catterick, on soft ground was a very fast time and carries alot less weight today with the claimer on board this tells me they are there for the money and giving them selves a extra chance with a good claimer, I think Freeverse, can win and Tartiflette, is the main danger.
1.50 Diamondhead E/W 33/1 is a awesome price for this lightly raced sort who I think will be fine on ground with plenty cut in it as it's by Kyllachy and has a decent 3rd aswell on it's debut on soft then won well the next time on it's last run in better company it flopped but that was gdfm wich I dont think will have suited and has had a nice break since and will be fresh and ready for this race and look's a brilliant E/W bet.
2.25 SendMyLoveToRose, I backed this at Ascot, but it got distressed in stalls and was lucky to escape without injury I fancied it strong that day then it went and won easy in good race in Ireland and because of that is such a short price today but I think is a worthy favourite and will be very hard to beat.
3.00 Giofra, has some brilliant French form and I am not going to Take Golden Lilac, at it's short price that's pointless so I will give Giofra, a chance to beat it and I think has every chance it has only been beat by the top class Cirrus Des Aigles and that is nothing too be ashamed about and Giofra, has had a 75 day break since and is fresh for this and I think will have improved since then and if has will be a serious horse and has every chance of winning this for the class C Soumillon.
2.35 Contributer E/W, for the dunlop yard interests me alot and look's to have a cracking E/W chance today on breeding looks like will be suited by todays ground and the Dunlop horses are starting to come rite he had a nice winner called The Tiger, earlier in the week and I get the feeling his horses could be about to come rite and I like the jockey booking William Buick,I think has a nice chance at a nice price.
4.10 Moshaagib E/W, has a E/W chance I think on it's earlier form it's second behind Handsome Man, at Yarmouth, was a good a good run then for whatever reason went of the boil in it's next 2 runs but the Gosdon, horses are flying and P Hanagan, is riding a few winners lately and maybe this horse has been kept for this race and things might click today I think I will get a big run for my money E/W
Chester 7.05 - Vocational won a race on the corresponding card at Chester last year and for all form figures don't inspire has been tackling class 1 and 2 races recently, gaining a mark as high as 104 at one point. Off 94 tonight (in a class 3) and a winner at Chester with soft in the going it should have a squeak. Especially as Mark Johnston normally does well there, Joe Fanning has a 20% strike rate. Ignore LTO form as the horse was heavily eased once chance had gone behind Rex Imperator. Hoping the yard are edging into form in time for Goodwood with Fulbright popping up today.
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