Crazy Weather and Crazy Prices

jasonz · Last edited by jasonz on Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:00 pm; edited 2 times in total

This has to be the worst summer I can remember (so far) in living memory on these islands. June was a wash out , every day it rained and now July is continuing the trend. This of course is not good news for us punters, none of the form is stacking up because of the heavy conditions. Usually you would have a handle on it by now but not this year.

Look at todays results for instance, we see Nadema Rose 4/11f nowhere in a race won by a 100/1 outsider,similarly Aidan O'Briens Parliment Square also nowhere gets turned over at odds of 1/4f by a 12/1 shot. This is now a very regular occurrence and bookies must be rubbing their hands with all this heavy ground about.

Should trainers like O'Brien be running these horse if they can't handle the conditions like Parliment Square? I have decided to not back any horses until the weather improves and the ground dries out. I know that is hard to do folks esp if you love a flutter but take my advice and don't throw your money away with the way the weather is.

What do you guys think, am I being a bit over dramatic?

Micko70 · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:24 pm Post subject:

Yes, the results have been strange but if punters are more than happy to flutter on racing no matter what then that is their fault.

I posted on facebook a few weeks ago about the weather and problems with the ground and mentioned that if people needed to gamble every day then they have a gambling problem, some people agreed with it and others slagged me off.

No doubt the daily punters slagged me off, i have a few punts on here with my virtual money, often daily but i don't bet daily in the real world as i know that you simply cannot back winner after winner, even more so when inclement weather is also against you.

The fields are bad enough with several poor horses without having to add in unforseen ground changes due to bad weather.

jasonz · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:52 pm Post subject:

Spot on Micko..its madness not only is there a dearth of quality like you say but even if there is quality like the O'Brien horse - it gets turned over! I know that was a short price but you would be surprised how many people would have had that as their banker in multiple bets.

Anyone backing the turf in this weather has a problem, you are gifting your money to the bookies.

deswalker · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:11 pm Post subject:

Don't think its a problem really for punting, you just need to be sure that the nag will handle what is thrown at it.

It has no doubt been a problem for trainers with wonderfully bred, skipping action good movers who are making the choice between taking on the mudlarks on their terms... or wait for the weather to change and take on every other decent horse in the world!

You will get big price winners from time to time no matter what the weather. Win

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merlin · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:18 pm Post subject:

The results are no 'crazier' than normal. If you look at the stats in July they will support this. In fact - in England, backing all favourties evens or better so far in July = a decent Positive LSP, so in some ways that's the 'crazy' thing Yes

The going does not (in the long run) really change statistics - just as many favs tend to win whether it's good or heavy.

jasonz · Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:32 pm Post subject:

I know what you guys are saying but how many of those stats relate to the all weather and polytrack?

merlin · Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 12:19 pm Post subject:

budgie27 · Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:16 pm Post subject:

Well that's a pretty good stat Merlin as I would think backing favs blind would nearly always have you at a loss. In some ways this weather should be a bonus for serious backers as if you ensure you back horses based on their for on the soft ground and others are based on their good or better ground form then you should find value bets. There are one or two at Newmarket in the coming two days for me.

merlin · Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:22 pm Post subject:

My guess is by the end of July, it will all be 'pretty average'..... it always ends up average ('in the end') Laughing