Monday 9th July - Discussion thread

deswalker

Another Windsor Monday night and the first horse that catches my eye is Star Rover in the 20:10.

The horse hasn't finished in the places since October last year but is ridiculously well handicapped if capable of rediscovering form, and handles any ground (handy on the uncertain going). He has never won over 6f and drops back to 5f here, admittedly he did appear over 5f at Chester in May and was disappointing but that was a very hot race and he found support in the market beforehand.

I'm intrigued by the booking of Nathan Sweeney tonight for 2 Evan's horses, this one and Style and Panache earlier on. He is a useful jump jockey reverting to flat (1 winner from 1 runner so far) and gets to claim 5 on the flat.

The most interesting thing is that the last time this horse won was in a small field handicap at Ffos Las last August in a race where 3 of the 6 strong field were saddled by David Evans... as they do tonight...

Its probable total coincidence but it does make me think...

Confused

Paddy's have gone from 12's to 8's early... although exchanges not really up and running on it yet of course...
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Marshy · Group 2 Class Joined: 07 Jul 2012 Posts: 215

Hi. Followed this site for a good six month
Now. Had some winners and so thought I would
Try and give a bit back.
I really fancy the chances of AL MUHEER. Ruth Carr
Is in great form. The horse in question ran a blinder Saturday.
Very unlucky not to get up on the line. 3/1 at the time of writing
Is a great price.
My second is hazelrigg. The horse is consistent but the trainer
Is on fire. I had both of his winners at aye today.
Saturday in the first couple of races Tim easterby had a 28/1 2nd (
In a photo) a 18/1 and 16/1 2nd and 3rd in same race and a 7/2 winner. All in the space of 40 minutes. Today at ayr a 5/2 and a 13/2 winner,
Can't argue against the figures.
Good luck all ..

blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

Some cracking named horses in that Windsor 6.40,
Xerxes my fav but, Dance With Dragons, Dutch Masterpiece, Art Of Racing
Dominate all good names Derwent sounds classy too.

Marshy · Group 2 Class Joined: 07 Jul 2012 Posts: 215

Sorry folks new to the game forgot to put the times for the horses :p
Al muheer is in the 7.50 ripon
Hazelrigg is in the 2.30 ayr

budgegraham · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Jan 2012 Posts: 447

Blueboy...what a race loads of quality..very hard to choose..I like them all but in order to find a winner only one can be selected..your choice is good but I would worry about the paper work on her and the ground..the one with the best credentials has to be Derwent..pity the stabe jock dosent ride mm the big danger has to be the R Hughes horse, decent money paid by shrewd connections after a 4 furlong jog...

GL all

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20200

Good luck everyone today - especially Marshy with new contribution.... I noticed R.Carr was in good form when looking at some stats yesterday. There are a few hitting winners in this ground - especially those ladies, with Carr, Duffield and Burke all liking it! From the big trainers who have sent out lots of runners, in July, Fahey and Balding are finding winners, while Hannon and Johnston are (currently) cold.

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5598

If anyone is interested then Takeitfromalady will shift from SkyBet's current quote of 4/1 - Windsor 7.10

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5598

4.30 Ayr Dynamic Drive has looked regressive in the last 18 months or so and his h'cap rating has plummeted to one of 51 ; needs to show quite a bit more to get involved but I wouldn't feel comfortable in offering the 28/1 that's available at Stan James.

cappaburgio · Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:30 am Post subject:

I hate Ayr races so am on these at Chantilly. Lumiere Rose, Lewamy and Scouting ( first 3 races ). Expect big runs from all 3. To add to the discussion side of things, tonight at Windsor Ryan Moore partners Red Lover in the last. Anyone else think that this horse could be better than it has shown so far? Top weight tonight but could still go well at an Each Way kinda price.

deswalker · Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:50 am Post subject:

@cappaburgio

I do have a slight question mark over whether Red Lover will stay given previous performances and, despite the first 4 being well clear of the rest when he was 3rd at Leicester, the form has yet to really stand up very well.

Overall, I am against that one. I backed Larkrise Star lto and was dismayed that Hugh Taylor has taken it upon himself to point out how tenderly she was ridden after meeting trouble on that occasion. That one should run well, but also Graylyn Valentino has a very interesting profile for an EW option. Not guaranteed to stay on pedigree but his last few races have worked out very well and he has a recorded reason for his performance lto to boot (hung right throughout).

A better jockey is booked today (apologies to Brett Doyle, but I have a thing for Bentley) and I also always take a second look at 3yo's off the back of a reasonable mid-season break.

Win

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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cappaburgio · Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:09 pm Post subject:

I will certainly check them both out deswalker. I still get the feeling that Moore wouldn't be wasting his time on the top weight if someone didn't think it was capable of at least placing. We shall see I suppose. Got a tip off a pal of mine for Knocker Knowles at Windsor so will see how that bet goes and also how the market evolves in the last before deciding what to do. All the best.

joebid · Listed Class Joined: 21 Oct 2010 Posts: 41

Nice start with Lumiere Rose Cappaburgio!!!