Saturday 30th Discussion

Micko70 · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:11 pm Post subject: Saturday 30th Discussion

20 Year Trends for the Northumberland Plate

This is my first trend for my new blog (www button), i will happily put the trends on here for this race, not sure if i will put future races up though, see how this one goes -

AGE - All of the last 20 runnings have been by horses aged between 3 and 8, 3yo have won 2, 4yo have won 8
5yo have won 1, 6yo have won 5, 7yo have won 2 and 8yo have also won 2
Points - 4yo = 4 points, 6yo = 2 points, any other age = 1 point, any horse older than 8 = 0 points

WEIGHT - Horses carrying 9.00 or more have won 4 of the last 20 races, Horses carrying between 8.02 & 8.11
have won 14 of those 20 races and horses carrying 8.01 or less have won 2 of the last 20 races
Points - (8.07, 8.08, 8.10, 8.11) = 4 points, (8.02 - 8.05) = 3 points, 9.00+ = 2 points, 8.00 or under = 1 point
& 8.01, 8.06, 8.09, 8.12, 8.13 (0 winners) = 0 points

OFFICIAL RATING - 4 winners were rated 97 or more, 10 winners were rated between 90 & 96 & 6 less than 90
Points - 90 - 96 = 3 points, less than 90 = 2 points, 97 or more = 1 point

LAST RUN - 8 winners ran in the last 14 days, 5 winners ran between 15 & 21 days ago, 6 more than 21 days ago
Points - Last 14 days = 3 points, more than 3 weeks ago = 2 points, 15 - 21 days ago = 1 point

ROYAL ASCOT - 13 of the last 20 winners didn't run at Royal Ascot = 1 point

DISTANCE - 12 of the last 20 winners had already won over at least 2 miles = 2 points
7 of the other 8 had run over 2m+ without winning = 1 point, only 1 winner had never run over 2 miles = 0 points

GOING - Any horse to have won on Heavy = 2 points, placed on Heavy/Won on Soft = 1 point, unplaced on Heavy = 0 points

HORSE-AGE-WEIGHT-RATING-LTO-R.ASCOT-DISTANCE-GOING-TOTAL
Montaff - 2 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 16
Lexington Bay - 4 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 14
Gulf Of Naples - 4 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 0 - 2 - 1 - 13
Kiama Bay - 2 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 13
Palazzo Bianco - 4 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 13
Crackentorp - 1 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 11
Il De Re - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 11
Figaro - 4 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 10
Halla San - 0 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 10
Icon Dream - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 10
Lyric Street - 4 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 10
Motivado - 4 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 10
Blue Bajan - 0 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 9
French Hollow - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 0 - 9
High Office - 2 - 0 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 9
Trovare - 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 0 - 9
Kazbow - 2 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 8
Merchant Of Dubai - 1 - 0 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 8
Petara Bay - 1 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 8
The Betchworth Kid - 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1- 2 - 2 - 8

Montaff is the clear choice on trends, with Lexington Bay in 2nd place

Advised Bets -
2pt EW - Montaff @ 12/1
1pt EW - Lexington Bay @ 12/1

deswalker · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:40 pm Post subject:

Thanks for this micko, I hadn't thought about this race yet but I backed Montaff earlier in the season and I think he is looking very dangerously handicapped now, since he was beaten into 2nd in this last year off 11lbs higher... v interesting...

Have you thought about field size as a trend to examine? Confused

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Micko70 · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:52 pm Post subject:

No mate

This is my first proper trend using 20 year trends and it takes quite a while.

Next weekend i am looking at the Coral Eclipse but the week after it's the John Smith's Cup (Formerly the Magnet Cup) @ York and i will use big fields for that if the previous winners meet it

Cheers for that

bully1981 · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:35 pm Post subject:

Good luck with the blog Micko Win

_________________
Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!

budgie27 · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 7:41 pm Post subject:

Aidan you are way ahead on two year olds - what do you think of Baileys Jubilee in the 2:30 - ahead on RPR, OR (albeit some of the main contenders do not qualify for OR) and TS but available at 12-1 with Fallon up. Highly tried lto - Bahamian Bounty so some cut might suit - what are your thoughts on the price/race? Blocked off in the Queen Mary and not favoured by the draw anyway and also staying on nicely when finally produced - looks a player at the price? She looked pretty special in her first two races but maybe she was race fit but did beat a dual winner over 5f at NM and maybe she can eek out a little improvement now over 6f. Tipping Over won well lto and at 5-1 looks a player also Confused

merlin · Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:35 pm Post subject:

Nice analysis for the plate Smile

I like Montaff from your analysis but I can't help but fancy Halla San at 50-1 plus.

3.20 NEWCASTLE NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE
HALLA SAN @50-1+

There are sure to be a number of hourses who have been campaigned for this prestigous race, but I feel that Halla San is the one who could offer really good value. This (once smart) old timer hasn't won a (flat) race since way back in 2007, but it was consistently punished by the handicapper for progressing without notching-up wins (for example, going close off marks over 90 and then having the run off marks in excess of 100). It was still running off marks in the mid 90's last summer at the age of 9, and was still being given no real slack by the handicapper. I think Richard Fahey has finally lost patience and run it to get its handicap mark down; in 2012 it has caught the eye staying on late, or been made too much use of on other occasions when quite well fancied. It's also been run over a mix of distances, when at the age of 10 it looks to need a nice stamina test (it gets one tomorrow). He ran it in a claimer last time out which makes me smile, when beaten at 6/4 - this looked a primer for this race. In 2012 it has gone for pots of 12k on a couple of occasions, in addition to 'peanut races' - tomorrow's 86k would be a nicer reward. This horse deserves to win a big flat race and at age 10, with a handicap mark of 82, I think it has a chance. In April 2011 it went close enough off a mark 98 over 2 miles and in May it went close off a mark of 95 over shorter; if it runs like that it would probably have a cracking chance. Since I feel it's been campaigned for a good mark, I do like this today; if it had won any of the races in 2012 it would have been punished - and for this race you want a really good, rather than 'fair enough' mark.

Willbooo · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 2:04 am Post subject:

Fantastic work Micko, hope it goes ahead after all that work! Fingers Crossed

itsfreeusee · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:19 am Post subject:

Merlin, you have hit the nail on the head with the Northumberland Plate, I reakon Halla San probleys look's the best E/W bet of the day at 33/1
it got beat at Ripon, by Gulf Of Naples, but Halla San is way better treated today I cant see it being out the frame and I suppose the same could be said about Montaff, who was 3rd in that race and looks well treated aswell today,
I might have too have E/W bet on both

Azezal · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:29 am Post subject: 16:05 Newmarket

16:05 Newmarket
Some of the big guns out with their probable better 2yo's in their yards.
I cant help but keep getting drawn to Inaad and just keep wondering whether my mind cant help being drawn into the performances of both Newfangled and Dawn Approach (all sired by fantastic debut sire, New Approach).
It is folly to just go on the fact that its bred nicely on first lineage. However, there is a bit of a problem in the second line of lineage, i.e. Singspiel has hardly produced anything noteworthy.
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 24% strike rate FTO with his 2yo since 2009 and has some of the best rated FTO 2yo's on amateur rating sites, i.e. BY2or.co.uk, etc.
Saaed Bin Suroor has won 5 of his last 19 races so he is in good form.
At time of writing this Inaad is 7.8 on the exchanges and I think thats far too big a price to get away from.

mazzer1 · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:32 am Post subject:

morning all well yesterday was a disarrrrrrrrrster darling so going to have to change my stratagy not that i had one in the first place so i think the place for winners today is newcastle wipe out half the field to start so lets get looking, coffee, paper, laptop and action Wink

pritesh159 · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:44 am Post subject:

I can report very strong confidence for Rayvin Black in the 2:40 at Chester, its a potential group horse and very highly regarded should take all the beating. Fingers Crossed

The Executioner · Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:46 am Post subject:

For anyone interested I've had a positive message from the trade for the debutant Inaad in the 4.05 Newmarket - Stan James are currently top @7/1 ; a price which may well shorten.......... Aidan if you are about have you heard anything regarding his home form ??? Confused