This is often a decent race that produces a useful sort - previous winners including Khor Dubai, Showcasing, The Paddyman and Saigon - and although those with previous experience have achieved little between them, there are some very interesting newcomers from powerful stables to suggest this could be a fairly decent renewal in its own right.
The selection is a son of Accalamation who is the first foal of a once-raced maiden half sister to the useful Irish 10-12f winner/very smart Australian stayer Kerdem and 11-12f winner Keraloun out of a smart 7f-1m winner (including at Listed level) who was the daughter of a high-class 5-6f 2yo winner (including at Group 3 level). This colt is trained by Roger Varian and makes a fair amount of appeal on pedigree, being the first foal of a maiden half sister to a smart stayer in Australia and a daughter of a 1m Listed winner who was herself out of a Group 3 winner over this distance as a juvenile. His sales price increased from €46,000 as a foal to £105,000 as a yearling, and he comes from a stable that has already sent out a trio of winning newcomers from this age whilst the others that didn't get off the mark at the first time of asking at least made the frame. He has been found a winnable enough race in which to debut, and there is more than enough in his pedigree to suggest he will prove capable of making an immediate impact at this trip; no surprise to see this son of Acclamation make a winning start to his career here and further enhance his stable's record with juveniles.
The only runner in the field with previous experience that amounts to anything is the Michael Bell-trained Santo Prince, a son of Henrythenavigator who debuted in a 6f maiden at Leicester towards the beginning of this month, going off a 14/1 chance and looking as though the experience would do him good, towards the rear and pushed along over two furlongs out, making some modest late progress to eventually finish seventh behind Jalaa (beaten 7 lengths). He didn't quite improve on that as expected when contesting a 6½f maiden at Newbury nine days later, for which he was sent off a 10/1 chance; raced towards the rear once again and was never seriously involved at any stage, pushed along passed halfway and staying on nicely inside the final furlong to come home in fifth behind Toronado (beaten 10 lengths). He hasn't shown enough in either outing so far to suggest that he is a winner waiting to happen at this level, more than likely being brought along with nurseries in mind at a later date; tackles better ground here and has hinted at ability in both outings, but the way in which he finished off his race last time over slightly further didn't suggest that a return to six furlongs would be the way forward.
There are other interesting newcomers in the field aside from the selection, the first of them being the Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained A Certain Romance, a son of Invincible Spirit who is the third foal of an unraced half sister to top-class German 7-14f winner/smart sire Tiger Hill and a handful of other winners, most notably smart middle distance performer Toyah and Listed-placed multiple scorer Tiger Roi. This colt's sales price actually dipped when last visiting the ring, selling for 40,000gns as a yearling having gone for 58,000gns the year before, but he makes a reasonable amount of appeal on breeding as the third foal of a half sister to top-class German middle distance performer Tiger Hill and several other winners in Germany. He comes from a stable that has already saddled a pair of winning 2yo newcomers this term, both looking well above average and both very well supported in the market, and it is perhaps notable that they were also ridden by William Buick, who takes the mount aboard this colt here. His stable also introduced a nice sort here last term in the shape of Samminder, and can be relied upon in general to have their youngsters fit enough to do themselves justice on debut; starts out at a realistic enough level, and pre-race market support would only further enhance his already appealing paper credentials.
The Marco Botti-trained Echo Of Silence is a son of Sandwaki who is the first foal of a French 10f 3yo winner who was a half sister to the very smart 10-12f winner (including twice at Group 2 level) Silver Pond and smart 9-11f winner (including at Listed level) Silver Point out of a daughter of a half sister to very smart 8-10f winner (including at Group 1 level) Sillery. This colt's sales price jumped from €50,000 as a foal to €120,000 as a yearling, and he is another that catches the eye on pedigree, being the first foal of a winning half sister to a pair of smart performers in France and from the family as Prix Jean Prat winner Sillery. His is a pedigree that suggests he will stay a bit further in due course, but has clearly shown speed at home to debut this early on over six furlongs; very much respected on paper, but he comes from a stable that has endured a disappointing start with its 2yos so far this term, several failing just short of expectations; could be best watched with that in mind, though the market beforehand is sure to still make for interesting reading.
The Luca Cumani-trained Bartack is a son of Acclamation who is a half brother to Italian 1m 1f 2yo winner Vankook out of a useful 6f 2yo winner (Listed placed) who was a half sister to French 6f-1m winner Desert Threat and dual 7f AW winner Soviet Threat out of a 9-10f winner who was from the family of King George/Irish Champion Stakes winner Pentire. This colt went for 78,000gns as a yearling at auction and is another to make plenty of appeal on pedigree, his dam a useful sprinter for Richard Hannon who was a half sister to a pair of winners and out of a winning granddaughter of the dam of Pentire and also smart middle distance stayer Spring (later dam of the smart Inglenook) Listed-placed 10f 3yo winner Panna. His pedigree is more about speed than one or two of these, but he hails from a stable hardly renowned for its success with winning newcomers in this age division, and those that do oblige from this yard at the first time of asking are usually well above average (Fantasia, Seta etc.); market sure to guide the way beforehand as to whether this colt is in that league.
The other newcomer of serious interest is the Stuart Williams-trained The Obvious Choice, a son of Royal Applause who is a half brother to very smart UK/US 7-9f winner (including at Grade 3 level) Pickle, very useful 7-10f winner Auld Burns (placed at Group 3 level) and 6-7f winner Pivock out of a 6-10f winner from the family of Fillies' Mile third Hotelgenie Dot Com (later dam of Falmouth Stakes winner Simply Perfect). This colt sold for £65,000 at the Craven Breeze Ups a couple of months ago, having sold for 28,000gns as a yearling, and he appeals as the type to make an impact over this sort of distance this year, being a half brother to a pair of at least useful performers. However, he does come from a stable that tends to take the patient approach with its youngsters, often bringing them along gradually with nurseries in mind at a later date; almost certainly best watched for now unless the market strongly suggests this colt is expected to show something right away. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
4.40 Warwick Join Up 4/1, An 8 times winner from 1m to 1m1f with the majority on good/soft ground when on the turf. Ran a cracker lto to win over course and distance 7 days ago, pushing on strongly at the 2f mark to lead by 1f to win easily by 3 lengths over soft ground beating today's main threat Know No Fear. He has lacked the consistency on the polytrack where most of his runs have come this year, but has converted well on the turf with 3 wins from 4 runs in 2012, producing good staying performances at Nottingham and Bath, both in May. Racheal Kneller is present again on board today looking for the hattrick of wins on the bounce and her amateur status should help to soften the penalty rise for his success lto. Rachael also comes into this race in great form too, with a 34.7% win and 67.2% place rate over the last 14 days along with a 25.4% win and 53.2% place rate at Warwick.
6.50 Hamilton Stags Leap 4/1, NAP Won impressively over the hurdles last month at Kelso and came close on the flat lto over at Musselburgh 13 days ago to finish 1/2 a length behind in 3rd. He settled well to lead over 2f out and held on well to just miss out on the line. Drops 2 classes today and runs off a similar mark in conditions that should suit. He has run once before at Hamilton placing 2nd in a tougher race and off a higher mark last August. Jockey and trainer have a decent strike rate between the pair with a 32.4% win and place rate and jockey Emma Sayer is having a cracking season to boot with a 26.9% win and 42.3% place rate from 52 rides. Asterales holds favouritsm at the moment, but she's carrying a 6lb penalty for a short head win lto and has patchy form in the class at best.
3.50 Multi Bene, Went a close 2nd lto and looks to be open to improvement with being least exposed and Fallon on board, Dascombe yard in form to boot.
4.50 Strawberrymystique, Won well lto on the poly over at Wolverhampton by 3 lenghts to show for consistent improvement at the early part of this year. The booking of Jamie Spencer should help steer a double for this filly.
7.10 Yourartisonfire, Colt by Dutch Art, wasn't disgraced with a 4th lto at Nottingham in a better field after missing the start and should improve for this run.
8.40 Aegean Destiny, Runs of 2lb's less than her staying 2nd at Ripon on soft ground 7 days ago. Has a win and a few 2nd's at the track and ground should suit.
Last edited by jrt6644 on Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
It looks too have a good chance today was well beaten by Betty Brook, last time but I am hoping the softer ground might be in Ghazeers, favour today
and hopefully can reverse the form.
3.10 Ghost Wing E/W
It has too pop up sometime and hopefully can be today, it looks well treated and I hope it races prominent today and not out the back and has every chance of hitting the places or winning if shows it's best.
3.40 Poisson D'Or
This horse looks very good I like it alot, it won last tme on gdsft in fast time and should progress again today and looks a very nice bet on ground it obviously likes NAP
4.10 Dangerous To Know E/W
Should improve tday now up in trip and handicapping and hopefully will grab a place or better.
4.40 Big Bay
looks too well treated too ignore and has every chance today.
Got it between the two ying for favouritism here with Dutch Rose who is looking for his 4th win in 5 starts this year and runner up on last two starts Regal Acclaim. They met two outings ago over 6 furlongs at Redcar on good-to-firm ground. Neither managed to win, but they occupied 2nd and 3rd places with Regal Acclaim coming out on top by just over 2 lengths. To the point, Regal Acclaim was in receipt of 11lbs that day, but now due to Dutch Rose win last time out reopposes a further 10lbs better off in receipt of 21lbs. The step up in trip from that race should suit both with Dutch Rose winning lto over this 7 furlongs trip and Regal Acclaim winning over it on seasonal reappearance before acquitting himself well over a mile. I'm preferring Regal Acclaim on this Heavy ground due to his win at Catterick over this trip coming on soft ground as opposed to Dutch Rose's last time out win only coming on Good-to-Soft ground with his other races all on good or better.
5:50pm Yarmouth - COTTON GRASS
A runner up over course and distance two starts ago on seasonal reapperance unlucky to run into a well treated sort in Bilidn who since winning that off a mark of 56 has won his next three races his last won off a mark of 78, so he was very unlucky to meet him. He was then tried over 16 furlongs at this track last time out but didn't last the trip and 1st and 2nd have both won their next start from that race. He hasn't lasted any 16 furlong or further trip except from a 16 furlong handicap on Lingfield's All Weather surface which was run very slowly so doesn't count compared to the other 4 attempts where he has been at least 10 lengths down in each. Won over 11 furlongs, and was a close up 3rd over 12f and 13f in the races after that so he has the speed, and will be able to stay this trip. Very well treated on his proximity to Bilidn now back over a more effective trip. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
5.00 Newcastle Dora's sister @ 9/2 looks fair enough odds. Testing conditions and our best run to date comes on testing ground in a 0-75 hcp at Pontefract over 6f 3 runs back when returning to the track after a Lay off. We have had 2 runs since and should be fitter to do ourselves justice here today. Stable are going well and have a decent strike rate here 15%. Also the jockey does well for the stable. Pity only 2 places but as we should handle conditions better than most im on. 0.5pt win 1 pt place _________________ Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!
7.20 Red Joker ran well last time and it goes on the ground unlike alot of them and it is open too alot of improvement on only it's second run and gets my vote.
8.20 Shes A Character, looks 1 of the best bets of the night it won on soft ground at Doncaster and obviously likes it nice and soft and George Chaloner, takes some weight off what helps and although the Yard have not been firing lately they fired 2 winners at Newcastle earlier today and could be asign there coming back too form and Shes A character, looks overprices I snapped up the 14/1 at Corals 5pt win
8.50 Angelo Poliziano, can reverse the form with Fol Hollow, tonight I think on better terms and the 6/1 I took look's a fair price for horse who goes very well on soft ground.
9.20 Jeannie Galloway, won a class 3 on the soft ground 6f and looks too have a good chance tonight back at 6f on ground it loves.
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