"As ever a competitive race and a tricky one to solve but been waiting for this horse to run and should be spot on for this Lightning Cloud is still lightly raced but made rapid improvement last year and won five times from eight races As proven Ascot form and in three runs here as a win a second and a fifth but the fifth was a seasonal opener and needed the run Been rested for this race in mind and ran a cracker last time on seasonal opener when fifth to Global Village who i had that day but Lightning Cloud had a poor draw and won its side and was not beaten far but such a promising race after 8 months off Runs off the same mark has last time and looks nicely treated Needs a fast pace and should get it and has a good turn of foot and will fly home late and stay on well "
This looks a wide open renewal of this race in which almost all those lining up have the potential to do significantly better than they have shown so far, with a few of these really impressing on debut. Few have been more impressive first time out this season than the John Gosden-trained Newfangled was in a 6f fillies' maiden at Newmarket (July) a fortnight ago, the daughter of New Approach travelling strongly throughout close to the action and forging clear inside the final furlong once asked for her effort to come readily clear, scoring by an emphatic 4½ length margin over well-fancied favourite Fleeting Smile. The ground on that occasion is probably going to be fairly similar to the rain-softened conditions she will encounter here, and she couldn't have created a better impression on that occasion; likely to be short enough given that visually impressive nature of that win and her connections in what looks an open contest, but well worth her place in the field and not too hard to see her involved when it matters here. The Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained Agent Allison was just as visually impressive as Newfangled in making a winning start to her career in a 6f auction fillies' maiden at Pontefract 11 days ago; tracked the leaders until making good headway on the outer from a little over two furlongs out to challenge, quickening smartly to lead at the furlong marker and going clear in the final 100 yards to see off Throwing Roses by a resounding 7 lengths. She fully justified the pre-race market confidence behind her, extending right away throughout the final furlong to win impressively; fair to say it was just an average sort of race, but she did it in the style of a potentially smart filly and deserves a try at this sort of level. Jeremy Noseda has won this twice since its inception in 2002, and he could make it three with the once-raced maiden THE GOLD CHEONGSAM, a daughter of Red Clubs who, though unable to win on her debut outing in a 6f maiden at Goodwood last month showed any amount of promise in finishing third behind a subsequent Listed runner-up (behind Tuesday's Coventry winner) and a next time out scorer. She was the only filly in the field on debut, but that didn't stop her going off a very well fancied 2/1 favourite; broke slowly but recovered to race in touch on the rails, though this led to her finding her path blocked when looking for an out to challenge over two furlongs out, eventually getting through but then finding her momentum slightly checked by a weakening rival approaching the final furlong, remaining challenging until her effort flattened out close to the finish, beaten just over a length in third in the end. It was a very creditable effort from this daughter of Red Clubs considering events conspired against her, slowly away and then denied a clear run when she wanted it, things developed ahead of her slightly and even when out in the open finding her challenged slightly checked by a wayward rival; both of the yard's previous winners in this came into the race having made the frame in a maiden on their sole outing, and last year's winner came into this with only a third place to her name; showed enough on debut against the boys to suggest she could be well above average, and the weight of money behind her that day indicates she is thought plenty of by connections, so no surprise to see her get off the mark in the style here. The Ed Dunlop-trained Amazonas is the first foal of 6f 2yo winner/Queen Mary fourth Francesca D'Gorgio, and showed she had inherited plenty of her dam's ability when making a winning debut at the expense of colts in a 6f novices' contest at Yarmouth last month, travelling nicely in behind the pace until shaken up to challenge approaching the final furlong, staying on well for hand riding to lead inside the final 100 yards and see off the staying on Living Desert by ¾ length. It was a very pleasing debut performance from this daughter of Cape Cross, particularly as she comes from a stable whose youngsters invariably improve for a run; form at present doesn't look anything special (runner-up finished down the field in the Coventry here on Tuesday; third soundly held in similar company since, with the fifth failing to improve next time in a maiden), but clearly has a fair amount of potential and further progress more than likely; rain-softened ground the concern for her here. The Richard Hannon-trained Tassel is bred to be sharp and duly made a winning start to her career in a 5f maiden at Newmarket's Craven meeting in April, ridden to challenge over a furlong out and, despite some signs of greenness initially, staying on well to lead inside the final furlong and score by 1¼ lengths from useful duo All Fur Coat and Graphic Guest. She was found to lame after being pulled up in a 5f conditions event at Salisbury next time, slowly away and soon labouring; interesting that Richard Hughes has kept faith with her, and she represents the same connections that took this a couple of years back with the smart Memory. Mick Channon won this 12 months ago with subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Samitar and relies this year on Sandreamer, a daughter of Oasis Dream who made a winning debut in a 6f fillies' maiden at Newmarket last month, slowly into stride but steadily making up the ground on the outer and travelling well throughout, leading well over a furlong out and staying on strongly to see off Sharaarah by a length. The runner-up and fourth were winners next time out, and this filly was able to go two better than Samitar prior to that one coming here and landing this contest; will encounter slower ground on this occasion and her pedigree isn't that of a filly who will relish such conditions, but did it well on debut from subsequent winners and comes from a yard with an excellent record in this race. The Andrew Oliver-trained Sendmylovetorose is a daughter of Bahamian Bounty who made a winning start to her career in a 6f fillies' maiden at Navan a couple of weeks ago; came off the bridle sooner than most and took plenty of stoking up, but she grew stronger as the race wore on and responded well for pressure to lead entering the final furlong, forging clear to score by 5½ lengths from Strapless. She at least showed on that occasion that she can handle rain-softened conditions, but had a hard enough race in the circumstances and beat a blinkered fellow debutant who has since been beaten again (finished behind another from this stable); still impressed with the way she strode clear once getting the hang of things, and her yard sent over Connie Mac to finish third in the 2008 Queen Mary.
Selection: The Gold Cheongsam
Alternative: Newfangled
3.05 KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (GROUP 2) (3YO COLTS & GELDINGS) - 1m 4f
Typically fascinating renewal which brings together those that have been competing at this sort of level already against those to have shown more than enough in lesser company to suggest they would be up to competing in this grade. Aidan O'Brien's Astrology is the clear form pick on his Derby third behind stablemate Camelot at Epsom three weeks ago, attempting to make all and setting a decent pace, having absolutely no answer once the winner went by, weakening close home and losing third on the line to Main Sequence. He had won the Dee Stakes at Chester by a wide margin prior to that and is clearly a much improved colt for middle distances this term, but the obvious concern here is whether or not 20 days is a long enough period of time for this colt to have recovered fully from what was a very hard race at Epsom; obvious claims if able to reproduce his best. In the event that he cannot - and it is quite likely given several from the Derby have failed to give their true running here - it could be worth chancing the exciting THOMAS CHIPPENDALE now upped in grade having quickly progressed through the handicap ranks. He is a very well bred colt who won his maiden very easily at two, but needed the run on his return when fifth behind Expense Claim in a traditionally strong 10f handicap at Newbury last month (travelled well for a long way); made no mistake last time when winning a 10f handicap at Newmarket (July) a fortnight ago, travelling strongly off the pace until making smooth progress into contention from over two furlongs out, shaken up entering the final furlong and quickening clear to score by 3½ lengths from Valley Of Dreams. It was only a 0-95 handicap which he was perhaps entitled win from a mark of 86, but he is clearly much better than just a mere handicapper and showed that with the ease of his victory last time out (fifth has won twice since, including in yesterday's King George V Handicap); has proven himself under rain-softened conditions and also promises to relish the extra two furlongs on offer here, and it wouldn't at all surprise to see this well-related colt maintain his progression and cause a minor upset here. Stablemate Noble Mission is a full brother to the brilliant Frankel and has predictably been burdened with expectation since day one, shaping with a good deal of promise when second on his sole start at two and making a winning reappearance over 1m at Newbury back in April, sporting a now-familiar hood and winning nicely. He followed up in a 10f Listed contest at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day the following month, tending race keenly in a held up fourth and then managing to find trouble in running in a five-runner race, coming with a sustained challenge throughout the final furlong once out in the open to overhaul Mariner's Cross close home and score by a head. He went close to making it a hat trick of victories and successfully carrying a penalty when a close second in a similar contest over the same course and distance a fortnight later; raced in behind the leading duo, coming under pressure past the three furlong marker and not picking up immediately, switched right and staying on steadily for pressure inside the final furlong to get to within a neck of Thought Worthy. It was a respectable effort in defeat in the end, unable to travel into things as well as he had done on his previous two outings this term, under pressure some way out but responding well and losing out to a smart rival who was in receipt of 5lbs from this colt and who went on to finish fourth in the Derby; not entirely straightforward by any means, but the choice of Tom Queally and entitled to turn the tables with Thought Worthy now racing off level terms with that one; proven under soft conditions. The aforementioned Thought Worthy is one of two runners for John Gosden, and this colt almost made a winning return to action at Sandown in April on atrocious ground, only to be collared in the final strides by the enterprisingly ridden Imperial Monarch. He went one better when landing the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket next time at the expense of Noble Mission, admittedly getting 5lbs from that rival by way of his Listed success; attempted to make all and was in the process of doing so when failing to handle the Dip at all, headed and dropping back to fourth before rallying bravely to regain the lead inside the final furlong and hold on to score by a head. He was then fast-tracked to the top level when contesting the Derby at Epsom just a fortnight later, tracking Astrology for the most part and ridden to dispute briefly on the approach to the straight; however, that is as good as it got for him, one paced thereafter albeit managed to hold his position well enough to emulate brother Lucarno and finish fourth. He has quickly made up into a smart performer this term, but the worry here is whether a third run in almost a month will take its toll particularly having contested a race such as the Derby; by no means certain to confirm the placings with Noble Mission now racing off level terms with that one, and his stablemate holds him on a strict line through Main Sequence. Shantaram is the other Gosden representative and presumably the choice of William Buick, and this colt went very close to going one better than on debut when just losing out to Model Pupil in a 10f maiden at Newmarket's Craven meeting back in April, travelling well and getting to the front in good style but unable to see things out. He ran a creditable race in defeat behind subsequent Derby runner-up Main Sequence in the Lingfield Derby Trial next time, drawing clear with that rival from over a furlong out and kept going all the way to the line, though may have been a shade flattered to get to within ¾ length at the line. He made very heavy weather of landing odds of 1/8 in a 12f maiden at Newmarket (July) a couple of weeks ago, taking what seemed an eternity to hit top gear but eventually doing so inside the final furlong to see off stablemate Mashaari by ¾ length at the line. The reason put forward for his laboured effort that was the rain-softened ground, so the recent rainfall and forecast further rain would obviously have to be of major concern for this colt; otherwise, he has enough decent form in the book to suggest that he should be involved in some capacity if resuming his progress after working harder than expected back down in maiden company last time.
Selection: Thomas Chippendale
This looks one of the lesser renewals of the Coronation Stakes in recent times Homecoming Queen was almost certainly flattered by her 9 length win the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last May, finishing only fourth in the Irish version next time; ease in the ground here would aid her cause, though. Samitar comfortably had her measure that day, in the process bouncing back from a couple of disappointing efforts in lesser company following a fruitful juvenile campaign which included victory on this card 12 months ago in the Albany Stakes; would want the rain to stay away as much as possible, however. Stablemate Laugh Out Loud has gone from strength to strength since her 10 length maiden win on the all-weather at Kempton earlier this year, managing only eighth in the 1000 Guineas but since bouncing back in style with victroy over German 1000 Guineas winner Electrelane in a Listed contest at York. She confirmed herself a very smart performer when landing the Group 2 Prix De Sandringham at Chantilly earlier this month, making all and travelling well out in the lead, ridden well over a furlong from home and staying on well to keep Mashoora at arm's length as she ran out a 2 length winner. She has come a long way in a short space of time since her debut defeat at Wolverhampton earlier this year, bouncing back in style from her eighth place finish in the 1000 Guineas behind Homecoming Queen; concerning that her no-show on that occasion coincided with the worst ground she has tackle so far in her brief career. It could just be worth chancing CARDIGAN at likely decent odds, the daughter of Barathea coming here off the back of a debut win in a 6f fillies' maiden at Haydock last backend on rain-softened ground, showing a smart turn of foot to lead approaching the final furlong before forging clear of solid yardstick Riot Of Colour to score by 2¼ lengths (pair well clear). She hasn't been seen again since and obviously makes her return action at an extremely high level, but trainer William Haggas wouldn't ask such a question of her unless certain of a bold showing, and the rain-softened ground here shouldn't be a problem for a daughter of Barathea who handled ease in the ground with aplomb on debut. Starscope finished second behind Homecoming Queen in the 1000 Guineas last month, but has since finished a soundly held third behind Momentary in an Oaks trial at Newbury and looking increasingly like temperament is taking a hold, troublesome at the stalls and less than convincing under pressure. John Gosden also runs a couple of others here, the first of them being Prix Marcel Boussac winner Elusive Kate who makes a belated seasonal debut having not been seen since finishing eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf when sent off favourite (had excuses); arguable as to just how much improvement there is to come from her this season, but returns in what looks a winnable renewal of this race and certainly not to be underestimated if running up to her very best. The third of the Gosden trio is Fallen For You, a daughter of Dansili who has never gone on from the promise of her impressive debut win last summer, finishing second behind Lyric Of Light in the May Hill before disappointing when sixth in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. She made a winning reappearance in a minor contest at Kempton in April, but could manage only sixth behind Chachamaidee when sent off the 9/4 joint-favourite with that mare for the 7f Listed Chartwell Stakes at Lingfield last time, shaping as though a return to this trip would suit.
This looks an excellent renewal of a race that provides up and comers with the stepping stone towards pattern class company, and this year's renewal features at least a handful of fast-improving sorts capable of progressing further still. Mijhaar has long been held in high regard by connections, but he hasn't really delivered what has been expected of him so far, for all his fourth in the King Edward 12 months ago behind Nathaniel was a creditable effort given he didn't appear to get home (only one to get near the winner). He then found only Fulgur too good in a valuable handicap at the July meeting on his only other subsequent outing, and returned to action last month in a valuable 1m handicap at York with a third place finish behind Fury and Royal Hunt Cup winner Prince Of Johanne, making a promising forward move into contention but unable to sustain it. He is entitled to prove all the better for that reappearance run over an inadequate trip, making some progress to threaten briefly until a combination a lack of fitness and also speed counted against him; still likely that he is on a winnable mark, but he wouldn't want any further easing of the ground in all likelihood. Anyway, there is an even better handicapped horse in the field in the shape of GATEWOOD (NAP), a smartly bred colt who won his maiden at Salisbury last summer before disappointing slightly on his handicap debut here next time. However, he has returned as a four-year-old in tremendous style, scooping a valuable extended 10f handicap at York's Dante meeting, travelling strongly throughout and making smooth progress into a challenging position, finding plenty when asked inside the final furlong to see off Romeo Montague. He then followed up in a similar contest at Epsom at the beginning of the month off a 5lbs higher mark; raced near enough in last place for much of the way, still having plenty to do at the top of the straight, but he was switched out and made stealthy progress down the outer from over two furlongs out to finish off very strongly throughout the final furlong, getting up to score by a neck from Ottoman Empire. That he was able to win at all is to this colt's immense credit and a testament to his ability, last for much of the way and still a long way off the pace once the race began to take shape, finishing off powerfully throughout the final furlong to get up close home and actually win with a bit in hand. He has been raised 7lbs for that win to a mark of 98, but even that seems fair given his progressive nature and the fact he more than matches strides with connections' hugely progressive middle distance performer Aiken at home; no surprise to see him chalk up a hat trick of victories here en route to pattern company. Another colt with similar aspirations is the Luca Cumani-trained Danadana, improving with each run in a truncated three-year-old campaign last term which saw him win a maiden and sign off with a creditable fifth place finish behind Brown Panther in the King George V Handicap at this meeting a year ago. He has returned looking better than ever this season, making a winning reappearance at the expense of the hugely progressive Qaraaba in a 10f handicap at Newmarket before landing the valuable Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar from the useful Mid Mon Lady, travelling well in mid-division and making good progress two furlongs out to challenge for the lead, taking over approaching the final furlong and keeping on well to hold off the late thrust from the runner-up. He has been raised a stone in total for his two victories to date and will need to improve again in a better race, but this son of Dubawi looks an archetypal Cumani-trained improver who could progress to a higher level sooner rather than later; another not really proven on ground with cut in it, but very much a colt on the up and another who is likely to go well as he bids for a hat trick of victories. Stablemate Kirthill was another to progress nicely in handicaps last term, hanging his chances away when looking set for victory on his handicap debut and following that with three fairly promising efforts, and it all came good on his final start of 2011 when securing a valuable 10f handicap at Newbury at the expense of Pivotman. He kicked off his four-year-old campaign in the same 10f handicap at York won by Gatewood, making good headway from the rear three furlongs out and attempting to challenge in behind the leaders approaching the final furlong, but he was unable to sustain his effort and was very much looked after once held. It was a nice re-introduction and he should strip a lot fitter for that outing, shaping a bit better than his eventual finishing position suggests last time; been passed over by Kieren Fallon in favour of Danadana, by Ryan Moore no bad substitute and no surprise to see this colt well here at likely decent odds. The Seamus Durack-trained mare Qaraaba continues to make rapid progress through the handicap ranks, landing just the one raced last term but coming good in a big way so far this year, making a winning reappearance in a 1m handicap at Kempton in March and following up ten days later from in a 10f handicap at Doncaster from a 5lbs higher mark, doing so in smooth fashion and in the style of one destined to rise through the handicap ranks. She was denied her hat trick by Danadana in a 10f handicap at Newmarket time (now 3lbs better off with that rival), but returned to winning ways last time when comfortably landing a 10f fillies' handicap back at Doncaster, making progress to challenge going very easily two furlongs from home and taking over still on the bridle passing the furlong marker, coming clear in effortless fashion to score by 3 lengths from Dragonera. She has been raised to a mark of 101 as a result of her three victories so far this year, but she has given the distinct impression in 2012 that she is a mare capable of competing as this level without too many problems and defied a career high mark last time with ease; proved herself capable of handling rain-softened conditions last time, and simply cannot be ruled out here given her current rich vein of form.
Selection: Gatewood
Alternative: Qaraaba
5.00 QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (GROUP 3) (3YO) - 2m
This provides a real test of stamina for three-year-olds and is often a decent contest, though this year's renewal does seem to be lacking a bit in terms of quality overall albeit there are one or two with the potential for above average improvement as this sort of distance. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Athens is likely to lead the market more for his handler's recent record in this race more than anything, and though it is interesting that he is the chosen one to represent them this year, he has come up short on all four forays into this sort of company and isn't sure to stay this far pedigree. The complete opposite applies to Minimise Risk, the Andrew Balding-trained son of Galileo a half brother to several useful middle distance/staying types including Goodwood Cup winner Darasim, and he got off the mark at the second time of asking in an 11f maiden at Newbury in April when fending off Uriah Heep to score by a head. He came up short of the required standard when last of five in the Chester Vase next time, though that was on very bad ground and around a unique track; fared as well as could have been expected last time in the Derby last time, towards the rear throughout and plugging on at the one pace down the straight to beat a couple home behind Camelot (beaten 14 lengths). This extra distance likely to see him in a better light, and this is obviously a lot easier than the task he faces three weeks ago; still has to prove himself at this sort of level given he cut no ice in the Chester Vase, but, as explained, that came on bad ground around a sharp track, and worth a chance to see what he can do at this distance. However, it could be worth giving the beautifully-bred and wholly unexposed ESTIMATE (NB) a chance to supply the Queen with a winner in Diamond Jubilee year, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained daughter of Monsun a half sister to a stack of winners including 1999 Gold Cup hero Enzeli and Irish Oaks/Prix Royal Oak winner Ebadiyla. She shaped with some encouragement when seventh on her sole outing at two last September, and showed the benefit of a winter break and the extra distance when landing a 12f maiden at Salisbury on her return to action in May; raced in midfield for much of the way, making headway from over three furlongs out and coming with a sustained challenge down the centre of the track to lead at the furlong marker, staying on strongly inside the final furlong to see off Mysterious Man by 2¾ lengths. The race has produced winners since, and this well-related sort clearly relished the extra half mile in distance and showed the benefit for her run last backend; seems as though she has been held back in order for this race, and it ought to suit her very well given the way she got stronger as the race wore on last time and the fact she is from a stout family, with half brother Enzeli winning the Gold Cup here in 1999. The Brian Meehan-trained Yazdi is a son of Pivotal who boasts a similar sort of profile, shaping nicely on debut in a 10f maiden at Newmarket's Craven meeting that has worked out nicely, keeping on into third behind smart duo Model Pupil and Shantaram. He duly built on that when slamming the opposition to land a 12f maiden at Thirsk towards the beginning of May, fully justifying odds of 2/5 favouritism; raced in behind the pacesetters until shaken up to challenge three furlongs out, leading passing the two furlong marker and drawing clear approaching the final furlong to rout the opposition, scoring by 7 lengths from Regal Swain. He shaped on that occasion as though this sort of step up in distance would be within his stamina range, and he broke his duck in impressive fashion having gone with a good deal of promise on debut; open to significant improvement after just two career starts and of obvious interest. The Charlie-Hills trained Perennial looked a colt of Derby potential following a debut win and second in a Group 2 on his two outings as a juvenile, but he posted a lacklustre effort on his reappearance in the 1m 1f Listed Fielden Stakes at Newmarket back in April, faring only slightly better in an 11f Listed contest at Goodwood last month when third of four behind Michelangelo. He shaped on that occasion as though he could be worth a go over a marathon trip, caught out once the pace lifted but sticking on at the one pace throughout the final furlong; not obviously progressive and the extra half mile he faces here will need to bring about a fair amount of improvement, but not entirely impossible that it will on just his fifth career start.
An extremely tough handicap to close out day four. Global Village has been in excellent form so far this year, landing a couple of 7f handicaps under similar conditions at Leicester and over this course and distance last time, leading inside the final furlong and staying on well to see off Bonnie Brae by three quarters of a length; ran a solid race in defeat in between those victories when third behind Captain Bertie in the Spring Cup, and not hard to see this gelding going well here in his current form and under ideal conditions. The James Fanshawe-trained Primaeval is perhaps better known for his exploits on the all-weather, but he made the frame in a pair of 7f/1m handicaps here last autumn and won last time at Goodwood over 7f when readily accounting for Noble Citizen to score by 2 lengths; questionable whether he will be suited by the rain-softened ground on the evidence seen so far of him. Eton Forever didn't quite live up to his comeback win in the Spring Mile last March, coming up short at Listed level in the main, but he returned with a respectable fifth place finish in the Lincoln before enduring a nightmare passage at Chester last time, twice running into difficulties when looking to mount a challenge and having to settle for eighth behind Imperial Djay (eased once held); can still be competitive off this mark of 103 on that evidence. However, it could be worth giving the Amy Weaver-trained TARIQ TOOanother chance to shine after he disappointed over this course and distance in the Victoria Cup last month (led over a furlong out but faded to finish ninth, 8/1 favourite), having made a winning start for new connections in a 7f handicap at Thirsk on soft ground to make it back to back victories after winning on his final start of last season over the same distance at Goodwood on soft ground. However, he bounced back from his disappointment here to land a 7f handicap at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, travelling nicely in behind the pace in midfield, making good progress over a furlong out and leading inside the final 75 yards, holding off the useful Scarf to score by a head. He seems to relish soft conditions, and it is more than likely he will get them here given the forecast; worth another chance to show his true worth after proving a bit disappointing here last time in the Victoria Cup, with the capable Harry Bentley taking 3lbs off. Emilo Largo is unexposed and has the potential to do better (proven under these conditions), Decent Fella goes particularly well fresh, Lightning Cloud acts on most ground and ran a nice race here when fifth in the Victoria Cup last time and Directorship comes here in good form after just failing last time over 1m at Sandown.
Seriously in racing there is no such thing as a cert........but what is for sure Aiden certnly posts a great write up.. and the usually come close.. keep up the good work Aiden and all.....
Now for my measly write up!
425 Asc French Navy.
This is because I am in the french navy ...only joking..The horse runs well fresh..the horse is dropping in class..Barsalona is in the saddle..the stable is hitting top form....the odds are at a good level..the horse loves this distance...and seriously what else is in the race GL ..apart fromm greatwood.
2.30 SANDREAMER 16/1, A filly by Oasis Dream, won on debut at Newmarket 35 days ago over 6f in an impressive staying performance beating the likes of Sharaarah and Tipping Over who have both gone on to win on reappearance. Stable in fine form along with a decent record in the Albany Stakes, should go close here.
3.05 NOBLE MISSION 9/2, NAP Full brother to Frankel, form is 2,1,1,2. Was unlucky in his previous 2 outings with being boxed in and finding it a struggle to get clear air. Has proven experience over soft ground with 2 wins and a 2nd with the latest win over 1m2f at Newmarket in the Newmarket Stakes in early May. Has a tendency to race keenly, but has improved race on race and Queally back on board should help to settle the ship.
3.45 HOMECOMING QUEEN 7/2, Won convincingly in the 1000 Guineas by 9 lengths in may over good/soft ground. Has further success in the past over cut in the ground with a win at Curragh last October over 1m along with a win and a 2nd last September over 7f. With her last outing a less than succesful 4th at Curragh over firm ground, emphasises her need for softer ground.
4.25 DANADANA 8/1, Has superb form over this distance with 1,2,1,1. He has improved with each race, finishing lto with a win in the Zetland Gold Cup. His 2 latest were in May and June of this year, fairly comfortable wins at Newmarket and Redcar, the prior he beat Qaraaba. Some doubt maybe over the ground, but should improve to be there or there abouts.
5.00 ESTIMATE 5/1, NB She flew home lto to win in a 1m4f Sailsbury maiden by 3 lengths ahead of the short priced Mysterious Man over good/soft ground. A half sister to an Irish Oaks, St Leger and Gold Cup winner, so the step up in trip shouldn't be a question. A hot pick to bring Royal success in the Queen's Vase today.
5.35 TARIQ TOO 16/1, A field of 30 with plenty of the short priced horses being drawn on the unfavourable high side. I'm plumping for the 5 times winner over 7f, the latest 3 have come over soft ground. His only appearence at Ascot was in May of this year where he produced a weakened 9th with Eddie Ahern on board. Since then his only run was a win at Doncaster in class 2 over soft ground finishing well with a strong turn of foot. Harry Bentley returns to push for the double over ground he will enjoy.
Well beat fav last time out but did win time be for. Runs better on good ground which it is today as last time out when beat was on soft but won on Good, Good to Firm in places and is good ground today. Good 2nd 3 runs ago on good to firm but again 4 runs back came only 4th of 9th on softer ground again. So back to 8 furlong and on ground he likes good EW. _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
Last edited by nelix847 on Fri Jun 22, 2012 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:02 am Post subject:
4:00 Redcar - Rio Grande (2pt Win NAP)
"Rio Grande (2pt Win) - You could put up a case for all of these seven runners here today but I am going to go with the in-form Rio Grande. Ann Duffield's three year old runner has finished in the first two in all of his last four starts and can continue in good form today, two of his first three starts were not great and although six of fourteen at Newmarket on his second start he was within a length and a quarter of the winner so not bad, those three starts all came on the turf but he was switched to the all-weather and that is where his form has picked up. First runner up at Wolverhampton over 6f, then a winner again at Wolverhampton over 7f, he then made his handicap debut off 77 when runner up at Southwell over 7f but followed that up with a win off 77 at Kempton over a mile when a very comfortable six length winner. He returns to the turf here today and off a mark of 85 but if he can transfer his all-weather form over to the turf then he will have a good chance of winning this today, all his previous starts on the turf came over shorter trips whereas today's mile will suit him more and although up against older opponents here today that does mean that he gets a 3yo allowance along with Springheel Jake who is the only 3yo in the race. As already said on their day any of these could land this race but I am siding with 3yo Rio Grande to transfer his all-weather form to the turf."
Does anyone know a website that I can get a live online commentary. I used to use Sporting Life for a fence by fence commentary, but I can't seem to find it!
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