Today's first selection goes in the 1m1f (class 5) handicap for 3yo's. The Mark Johnston trained bay colt, Captivity is a previous course and distance winner here in February this year. His 3 runs so far at Wolverhampton are 2,2,1 all over 1m1f with one of the 2nd's being in a class 5. Lto he was pushed back down to 1m at Beverly 8 days ago, resulting in a stong 2nd, pressing on very well just to lose out by a neck. Mark Johnston's horses run well here with a win rate of 28.7% and a place rate of 53.6%. The main threat comes from Tis Rock n Roll, who won well on a handicap debut lto over 1m2f, but is penalised with a 9lb rise. His only run over 1m1f was at Wolverhampton finishing 11th. Captivity should have enough to win this as he's back on his favoured surface, over his favoured trip and at a course he has run well at.
The Paul Green 7yo bay gelding, Legal Eagle is my other selection. He runs in the 6f (class 5) handicap for 4yo's plus. A twice course and distance winner and a 4 times winner over 6f with his best runnings to date on good/firm ground. He is starting to come good this season after a few bad runs on the polytrack, to a well fought 4th lto over 6f at Chester 12 days ago on good/firm ground. The key to this selection is that Joe Fanning takes the reins for the first time. He is the top jockey here at Hamilton with a 23.5% win rate and a place rate of 44.4% (+£16.48 to £1LS). A small drift could tempt an E/W banker, but as it stands i rate this horse for the win.
Value E/W bets:
3.50 Lingfield MYBOYALFIE 12/1, A winner on the turf in Feburary on soft ground and a twice winner over 7f. 3rd lto in a class 4 1m race losing by only 3 lengths. His best runs have been on softer ground and Freddie Tylicki took the reins at his last win.
4.10 Wolverhampton OAKBROOK 22/1, Ran 3rd lto over at Catterick against higher rated horses, finishing well. Jockey and Trainer have a decent strike rate here, yet to be tested on the polytrack and should be open to progress.
The race is quite competitive I think. The favourite Tis Rock 'n' Roll won with a bit in hand last time.
Captivity has awsome record at the track and distance and showed he is in perfect form last time when somewhat unlucky second.
Night Flash is bred to excell on polytrack surface and can improve again with the drop in trip he didn't stay last time.
Holly Martins will also appreciate the step back in trip and should run well but apparently he is not wearing the hood he wore last six times.
Zain Princess is back to the track she loves where her record reads 1-2-3-1 but she's not well handicapped.
And not to forget Supreme Luxury, who ran very well to finish 6th last time after a big break on the same track and distance.
It's very difficult to separate that bunch and probably there are others I missed as usual but what drew me to Sheila's Buddy is the form of his polytrack races. His win at Lingfield was very eyecatching running like a train and winning going away. He actually clocked faster times that day than the favourite Tis Rock 'n' Roll last time(about 4s difference). His second at Wolverhampton earlier in his career clocked fast times too and he could have won that race if he were more experienced. He's had 14 career starts and has been in the money for half of them so the horse is consistent enough, runs of about the same mark as when he has been competitive before and a small saver on him could be worth it depending how the race develops. _________________ The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits
There are three horses I actually like in this race. Distant Sun, Amno Dancer and Mark Anthony. The three of them have some awful long record of losing runs but I think they are just about to grab a win at a biggish price. The problem is which one. Amno Dancer has never won a race in his career, but ran a fine race last time and the two that finished infront have both gone on to win again. After watching the race when 5th behind Sandwith I can honestly say this horse was very unlucky, absolutely nowhere to go but was pulling like a train, so back to 5f may not be such a bad idea. The form with Sandwith and Here Now and Why should be reversed this time based on that run. Distant Sun ran in exactly the same race and he also had absolutely nowhere to go, with the last gap closing when actually Amno Dancer pushed through. Distant Sun has been beat by a few in this race but is now very well at the weights and with a 5lbs claimer on board he is even better to go well. He tried a class 4 race last time but is now back to donkey level and should be competitive.
And the last donkey, Mark Antony has finally been dropped to 5f. He loves to lead and this trip will suit him perfectly. He hasn't won in the least 2 years but with the drop in trip and weight now he may suprise soon. So take your pick and put the rest on your alerts
Most of the other runners are not ideally handicapped, inclusive of Ingenti and Caymon Fox, and of course Sandwith and Here Now and Why so I am hopeful of a suprise in this race.
Selection: Distant Sun 20/1
Danger: Amno Dancer 9/1
Alternative: Mark Antony 14/1 _________________ The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits
Last edited by ExoticDancer on Thu Jun 07, 2012 12:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
On the face of things this is a competitive little race but I do fancy Salient to run well here with the race possibly run to suit him. He caught my eye when softly handled in the closing stages at Lingfield back in March. That time he came very close to making all but was just collared. Since then he ran well at Leicester (form is working out well and he only weakened when spreading a plate late on), ran into the progressive, soft ground dependant Prince of Sorrento at Brighton and missed the break from a wide draw and never had a chance subsequently lto at Lingfield.
Sandown is a course which suits a prominent runner and he has done well here before, his form figures reading 1946653 with that last 3rd coming off a mark 6lbs higher, on ground possibly faster than ideal (he has won on all ground conditions but his best form is with cut). Although his draw isn't the best for one who would like to be prominent, on rain affected ground they sometimes do better on the stands side, which could give him a hand from his wider draw.
Critically, there are no other fellow frontrunners in this field. There are a few who have made all to win off lower marks in weaker fields but are generally held up or tracking leaders. Given a soft lead, on soft ground, at a course that suits and on a mark from which he seems to be competitive he looks to have a lot in his favour today. Respect is paid to Jawhar, who still could be anything really, and Peponi who could also run well at a price but there is only one I want to be with here.
Good luck all. _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
2.00 Pistoral Prey, ran really well last time I thought when
finished second considering was green and stayed on same ace behind a horse that looks pretty decent and the extra furlong should suit today and should know it's job better today and expect it too go very well. 6/1
2.30 Falasteen, I cant look beyond this horse, it is down in class and and if runs near his actual form will be very hrd too beat I took 2/1 wich is good price I think will end up even money.
3.00 Amno Dancer, the selection ran really well last time staying on from the back and expect it too better that today and hopefully and obviously likes the quick ground and has that again today. 6/1
3.30, Hikma, can not be as bad as it showed last time and to be fair the yards horses were not at best last time it run and I will forget about the run completely as prior to that stayed on strongly on the all weather over 1mile and I think will be tough too beat today and the chief danger could be a big price one Barbarella Blue, who finished behind Hikma, that day but was staying on well but has it's work cut out too beat my NAP Hikma I took 7/1 nice price will only shorten.
4.00 Hopes And Dreams, is consistant but did not help itself last time when going left at the start and slowly intoo stride but still finished 3rd and that was not a bad race and the selection carries quite abit of weight and has less on it's back today and will be very tough too beat looks a good thing. 11/4
4.30 Pokfulham, can win this race again, I think will get a easy lead again and bowl along infront and get it's own way and be hard too peg back. 15/8
5.00 Bapak Pinta, got a terrible ride from Jamie Spencer, 2 days ago he managed to get it intoo trouble 3 times before giving up and I think with a better ride today under decent claimer will go very close.
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