David Barron's stable runner Amitola got good record on both Turf and AW. She is 2-14 on Turf and 2-6 on AW. This will be her first start at Doncaster. Also her first start at 1m on Turf. She is 1-2 at this distance on AW. She ran decently at this mark of 91 in her last two starts. Hope she'll be able to improve further. Barron's stable is in great form with 16% SR (5-31) on AW. Last season he got 11% SR (35-317) on Turf. Lee Newman will be in the saddle. He got 1 third from 3 starts with her. Last season he had 11% SR (32-282) on Turf. Both Barron and Newman got decent record at this course. In last 5 seasons, Barron-Newman combo shows 16% SR (24-151) on Flat. Amitola, only a 5yo weighs 8-11 and will start from stall 3.
Amitola (Good) + Trainer (Excellent) + Jockey (Good) + Owner (Excellent) + Runners in this Race (Good) Current Form = Win :x
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
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Location: BURTONWOOD
Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 1:36 pm Post subject:
15:15 DONCASTER
The draw will play a decisive part in deciding this years Lincolnshire winner, though at this moment in time, there’s no indication of which side will be favoured. Penitent was winner of the 2010 renewal and the draw clearly suited those drawn low as the entire field tact over to the far side rail. Last years race favoured those stands side, both Sweet Lightning and Brae Hill coming home clear of the field, both were drawn high. Pre to choosing the selection until at least the first race as run, im going to use a list of other statistics to break down the field pre race.
A statistic that as to be taken very seriously is the age of the horse. Since 1988, there’s been only one horse to win the race aged seven or older. The horse in question is Hunters Of Brora, winning the 1998 renewal aged eight, ridden by Jason Weaver. The statistics I have that stretch back as far as 1980 have just two winners aged seven or older, that works out at 6.4% strike rate for horses to win the race in that age bracket.
The list of horses to be dismissed using this statistic are:
Smarty Socks
Mia’s Boy
Lowther
Light From Mars
Stevie Thunder
Shavansky
Dubai Dynamo
With the dismissal of seven runners, that now leaves fifteen to filter through. Favourites have had a bigger barring on the race in recent years, especially the runnings of 2009 and 2010 for which Expresso Star and Penitent were big anti-post movers, though previous runnings of the race have not favoured those at the head of affairs. Including joint favourites, there’s been just six winning favourites in the last thirty one runnings of the race.
This years renewal throws up two very interesting runners, not sure at this moment in time though whether there a positive or a negative. There the Godolphin stable mates, Man Of Action and Start Right. The reason there interesting; as far as I can go back and search through the form (1988), Godolphin have yet to saddle a single runner in the Lincolnshire handicap. Now for a team as powerful as them through the late 1980’s and 1990’s, this comes across a bit of a surprise. The negative part for me, is whether there horses are ready at this early stage of the season? Both have creditable turf form, a 50% strike rate for 1,2,3 places and interestingly they both arrive here in first time head gear. Depending on the outcome of the opening race to where the draw advantage lies, they will both be added to the short-list.
Having split the number of runners directly down the middle, it’s interesting that the only two I have short-listed from those draw low are Eaton Forever and Field Of Dream. Of the two, I would probably just side with Field Of Dream. Since opening his account on debut as a four year old when winning the Spring Mile, Eaton Forever as failed to stand up to the mark in three runs since, disappointing at Ascot on his very next run. That was followed by a creditable effort in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing fifth of twenty two in his group before finishing one paced over a mile here last time behind Man Of Action. Field Of Dream as yet to win beyond seven furlongs though comes to the fore with creditable efforts on ground described as good. He as since had a fitness run at Meydan back in January, finishing sixth of fifteen behind Blue Panis, a race that as a decent look about it and his continuing tumbling mark warrants plenty of respect.
From those drawn high, apart from the two Godolphin runners already mentioned, I thought Don’t Call Me could run a decent race. Though possibly looking a little high in the weights; when wearing the tongue tie, his record reads four from seven. Brae Hill finished second in this race last year, though from the Marwan Koukash trio here today I would just prefer Pintura in the guidance of Jimmy Fortune. His record over a mile is very consistent, especially when ridding on ground described as good. In recent years, Jimmy Fortune as been the man to side with in this race. Having won the race in consecutive years aboard the Paul Cole trained John Ferneley (2000) and Nimello (2001), he also proved victorious in 2009 aboard Expresso Star for John Gosden. Mull Of Killough is also an interesting runner for the Jane Chapple-Hyam stable.
Given the results of the opening race, the draw looks to be favouring those drawn on the far side. From the seven I currently have short-listed, the effect of the draw suggest I should be against Man Of Action, Start Right, Mull Of Killough and Don’t Call Me. This now just leaves Eaton Forever, Field Of Dream and Pintura. The final selection is going to be the David Simcock trained Pintura. Beaten behind Eaton Forever in last years Spring Mile, finishing ten lengths fifth, his effort on that occasion was pretty pleasing, finishing third of twelve in his group whilst ridden by five pound claimer Laura Pike. That effort was over course and distance on exactly the ground conditions as today’s, so with a stronger pilot in the saddle without any disrespect to Laura Pike; I feel Pintura as what it takes to win this.
I have been through this card and got it down to a possible four, which includes the two Godolphin MAN OF ACTION and START RIGHT, the other two are my selection and LIGHT FROM MARS who looks well weighted to play a hand here.
Decided to stay with the top weight who won a listed race 129 days ago at Kempton and this was a prep race for a shot at this top handicap as trainer Paul D'Arcy pointed out in the Racing Post today, he has lined this one up for a good chance of tunning a big race here this afternoon.
Has a low draw but could make a progressive move from here and with top Irish jockey Pat Smullen who has only two mounts here this afternoon, the other ride is for Ray Beckett in the race before the Lincoln.
Fast ground , will suit and could be capable of carrying this weight on this surface.
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