Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 6:05 pm Post subject: Horse Racing Sunday - Selections Thread
4.00 Musselburgh - INGLEBY SPIRIT 7/1 NAP
Palawi did well to win last time especially as his jumping wasn't that great, he gave the last hurdle a right old battering. Today he will have to try to confirm the form with Nine Stories, Alsahil and Rumble Of Thunder as they all finished behind him last time and I think the one must likely to give him the most to do is Alsahil who finished in 3rd last time, this one is an unexposed sort and he is a lot better off at the weights today if you include the switch of claimers too (Joe Colliver 7lbs replaces Brian Toomey's 5 lbs claim), he is currently a 12/1 chance at Bet365 which looks a fair price considering Palawi is as short as 8/1. However it is tight between those four at the weights and I just can't find an edge that would persuade me to pick one of them, I think they are all locked together closely and Micky Hammond's 1-28 record in Hurdles at this track does put me off Alsahil here.
Nicky Henderson has a record here of 3 - 7 43% +2.98 in hurdles but those 3 winners have been short prices. His sole runner here is Dubai Crest who has a fair level of form but I'm not sure his form is good enough to take a class 2 event of this status as his only good form came in a 6 runner class 3 handicap at Doncaster when he pretty much scraped home from a Lavelle horse, to be honest I don't think the form of that race is up to much as both the second and third have been beaten since. I think Dubai Crest will have to settle for a place at best here and I can't see him winning personally
My selection is the current 7/1 fav, Ingleby Spirit from the Richard Fahey stable, a trainer who does well at the track in hurdle races of this type (7 - 35 20% -12.70) and that's a fair SR considering most of those winners would have had an average SP of 5/1-6/1 (I wish I still had Raceform as I could have posted the exact SPs of the 7 winners however I don't think Raceform is worthy of the £700 yearly subscription fee) but anyway those stats are healthy enough for me and I'm not worried about the £12.70 lsp loss.
This horse was a decent flat performer rated in the mid 90's at one stage, his highest winning mark was off 86 in a class 2 handicap at Pontefract on the flat (April last year!) and he won by 3 and a half lengths from Changing The Guard. After that win the handicapper put him up a further 7 lbs to a mark of 93 and that was when he started to struggle but he still ran to a fair level of form off those sort of marks for a further 5 starts after his win off 86 and then the stable decided to send him over hurdles where he finished 4th in a Novice race at Carlisle and he did need the experience there. On his next start he was second and then he raced over this C+D and he won, beating by 6 lengths Bowdler's Magic into second and the Fahey horse was a well fancied 15/8 chance that day. His latest start was also another win and that time he won by 16 lengths over this C+D again and he beat Absinthe into second there and that second horse was sent off as a 8/13 fav so he did well to beat him by a margin as big as that and that fav was coming into the race on the back of a win. I suppose we have to guess whether he is up to a mark of 134 and that's the question here but Absinthe was a 89 horse on the flat so if you just go on that form there you would say that this mark of 134 could be within reach and I'm willing to take the chance here. Brian Hughes has ridden 4 winners from his last 18 rides and the Fahey stable have had 5 winners and 8 placers from their last 26 runners.
Last edited by InsideMan on Sun Feb 05, 2012 4:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
Swinbank takes just 1 to the races tomorrow and he hasn't had a jumps runner in the last 14 days. All of my selections wins have came in Feb or Mar so we are coming into his time of the year and he has not failed to win in a year yet, he is now of a career low rating, 1lb lower than his last and only Handicap win. I have never been convinced of this horses staying ability and I believe he is best suited to the minimum distance. He is racing for only the 2nd time over the distance since bolting up despite a double penalty in his Novice days. His other run was his first run this season and he does not run either fresh or in the autumn. His run 2 runs back ago he finished 3rd just over 4 lengths behind Dubai Crest, taking the jockey claims into account my selection has a 13lb swing in his favour.
The opening race at Kempton is an extremely moderate race and stakes ought to be kept at a minimum in this affair. The tentative selection is the Conor Dore trained 7yo Soviet Star gelding, Kipchak. This horse today races off a career low mark and is entitled maximum respect in this field. The horse is best when allowed to dominate and judging on the rest of the field and their running styles, this shouldn't be too much of a problem and should be at the least an attractive back to Lay proposition. The horse has been putting in some decent runs over much further and is of interest back down in distance against inferior opposition. Has a consistent profile here at Kempton has been competitive and has won here over shorter distances. David Kenny is a decent young rider, and takes a further 5lb off this horses back so is extremely well handicapped in the context of this field and should go extremely well if getting an uncontested lead in this line-up against moderate opposition.
The next selection is in the 6f williamhill.com handicap at Kempton and I'm open to taking on the two short priced market leaders. This is a step up in class for both of them and I'm not sure how much progress and improvement they've both still got in them being pretty exposed and neither thus far have been competitive in a race of this strength or off a mark this high. While I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if either found the improvement and completed the hat trick, the price of both puts me off in a race which is pretty open. Therefore I'm siding with the Stuart Williams trained Earlsmedic, who is 3-5 over course and distance, finishing second and third on the other two occasions, and finished a good second to the unexposed sprinter Whailley last time out here. Has won off marks of 80, 86 and a comfortable victory off 67 earlier last year so a mark of 76 still looks a decent mark with his consistency proving he retains all his ability. This may be quite a muddling race with plenty of hold up horses, and Earlsmedic seems versatile in regards to tactics compared to many of the opposition and isan attractive proposition in this contest.
IMO the return to 7f will suit Gabrial bounty, watched its last outing numerous times and think there is more to come from this horse. Stall 1 again which is a plus & I dont think there is a alot of danger despite Majestic Zafeen. Gabrials Bounty to nip Majestic Zafeen.
3.40 Kempton - Torres Del Paine
C&D winner out for a hat-trick and will suceed IMO as Garstang is 10lb higher from when it won here last. Dont think Sulis Minerva will like this track as much as Torres Del Paine does. I have been on this horse on its last 2 outings where it has won & I am confident it will grab the hat-trick. 5/2
4.40 Kempton - Rightcar
This horse beaten Cut The Cackle last time out, however CTC would have won only for the gap being closed. CTC won well today and going by this form I think Rightcar will follow up today. The Grayson yard has been going reasonably well this year so far & I expect this horse to continue that.
4.00 Musselburgh - Ingleby Spirit
This horse is in great form and is another horse to land the hat trick for me 2maro (as long as the racecard goes ahead). Has potential to continue its winning streak even though this five year old will be meeting handicap company its comfortable wins recently indicate that there is still more to come & despite the rise in weights this horse has to be highly respected.
Raz De Maree was one of my favourite handicap hurdlers to follow last season and I think he holds very strong claims on his reappearance run this afternoon at Punchestown.. This is an ultra competitive race, which you would expect for the prize money that is on offer and although Sergeant Guib could be anything for the in form pair of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh, my selection is well handicapped off 128 and is proven in big field competitive handicaps having won a nice race at Cork last year of 121 under Bryan Cooper..
That Cork run was very good, beating Let Yourself Go and some good horses like Clan Tara and Doctor DeeJay.. That win was off the back of some very good runs in big field handicaps, in particular when just beaten under a length by stablemate Rivage Dor at Navan last Feburary.. The run that interests me most is last run of the season at Punchestown in a Grade 2 hurdle.. He was 5th to Askanna, beaten some 15 lengths.. However with a bit of hindsight, that race has turned out to be much better than I originally thought it would.. The winner Askanna has won her novice chase at the first attempt this year, Mossey Joe who was in second that day looks as if he could be a very decent chaser having knocked up wins at Killarney and Cork before making a horrible mistake and looking very unlucky at Down Royal.. In total 10 winners came from the race with the 1st,2nd,4th,6th,7th,8th,9th and 10th horses winning since, most of them on there next starts..
The selection has strong form and it could be that he is a couple of pounds well in as there is every reason to think he could have improved since last year as he is still relatively lightly raced.. 3 miles will suit this horse and he will go on heavy ground as he won his maiden hurdle on a heavy surface last January at Navan..
im trying a ew L15
1 20 ROYAL VIC 14/1 trys this trip for 1st time as been keeping on in all his races as a proper jock on and should be bred to jump trainer as fav in next so can get em ready seems value
2 20 OUR MONTY 5/1 always get suspisiuous when a trainer as a topwght and a bottom wght this horse will think hes been let loose and now the money as come makes it more attractive and will av needed his run lto and p townsend knows how to win
3 25 DROIM TOLL 16/1 p townsend won on thisone around this time of year the last few years on this kind of ground is alot better off with drive on jim the danger could be miss pepperpot
3 55 TALLY EM UP 14/1 another hot fav so will look for value 14l behind scotirish but had the rest strung well out .won some desent races a couple of years back
good luck to all
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