Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:15 am Post subject: HORSE RACING FRIDAY - SELECTIONS
2.30 Chester - SISINDU
This doesn't look to bad a maiden for the track, it featuring some promising once/twice raced sorts from powerful yards who should make up into useful performers in time. The selection is a son of Kheleyf who is the second foal of an unraced half sister to smart 6f-1m Italian winner Mister Cavern and was herself the daughter of a smart miler in France who was a half sister to speedy high-class duo Blue Duster and Zieten. This 110,000gns purchase is trained by Brian Meehan and made his debut in a 7f maiden confined to newcomers at Newmarket (July) last month, appearing to be the yard's second string and going off an unconsidered 25/1 chance under apprentice Louis Philippe-Beuzelin. However, he showed promise despite appearing to need the outing, held up and going well until greenness got the better of him under pressure from over two furlongs out, albeit was spared a hard ride and did some good late work as he came home ninth of 17 behind Biondetti (beaten 8¾ lengths). He is almost certain to improve for the outing, as all of the yard's 2yos do, and entries in the Champagne, Royal Lodge and Dewhurst suggest this colt is very highly regarded by connections. The winner, runner up and fourth have come out and franked the form since by winning in the past couple of weeks, and this looks an easier assignment than the one he was given on debut; enough speed in his pedigree to suggest this track will suit and no surprise to see him build on the promise of his debut effort and make it second time lucky here. The Barry Hills trained Captain Bertie is a nicely-bred son of Captain Rio who made his debut in a decent looking 7f maiden at Newbury in July, going off a 16/1 chance. Shaped with a good deal of promise, not too badly away but soon restrained back into midfield (very keen early), finding himself closer to last than first by halfway; made sustained headway from around the two furlong marker, showing clear signs of greenness but picking up in taking for fashion for mainly hand riding throughout the final furlong to finish a closing third behind runaway winner Waiter's Dream (beaten 4½ lengths). He was sent off 2/1 favourite to successfully build on that debut promise in a 7f maiden at Glorious Goodwood a couple of weeks later; looked the likely winner for most of the way, leading well inside the final furlong until being collared in the closing stages by highly rated newcomer Pausanias, going down by a neck. Time may well tell there was little disgrace in finding that well touted colt too good for him, though it was disappointing that he couldn't put a seal on matters and make more use of his experience; yard struggling for winners at present and he could well be vulnerable to an improver here. The Mark Johnston trained Dressing Room is a US bred son of Dixie Union who is a half brother to the very smart 7f/1m performer Lord Shanakill, and he shaped with promise on his debut in a 7f maiden at Newbury last month, coming back at the finish having been unable to quicken initially, eventually finishing fifth behind the wildly impressive Saamidd (beaten 13 lengths). However, he didn't really improve on that when fourth of nine in just a fair 7f maiden at Ayr 12 days later, close to the pace throughout and holding every chance approaching the final furlong, finding just the one pace as he came home 4½ lengths adrift of Man Of The Match. He has shown enough to suggest he can pick up a small maiden somewhere in the near future, but this looks a reasonable contest and he will certainly need to improve a good deal on what he has shown so far to make it third time lucky. The John Gosden trained Riot Police is a is a US bred son of Street Cry who fetched $170,000 as a yearling and is a half brother to the high-class US dirt miler Lisa M, out of a smart sister to the top-class US performer John's Call. He made his debut in a 7f maiden at Newmarket (July) back in June when the yard's first string and a well fancied 5/1 chance; however, he could only manage fifth behind 20/1 winner and stablemate Liberty Cap, making ground on the leaders around three furlongs out having been held up but looked green under pressure as he faded out of contention inside the final furlong (beaten 6½ lengths). It wouldn't have been the strongest of maidens contested at the track, but this colt shaped with a enough promise to suggest he would be of interest next time; absence since is a slight concern but a surefire improver who should give a good account of himself here, with the yard's 2yos now firing on all cylinders after a muted start to the campaign. The Mark Tompkins trained Barwick is a son of Beat Hollow who debuted in a 7f newcomers' maiden at Newmarket (July) last month, going off a wholly unfancied 66/1 chance and shaping as though the outing was very much needed, never close to the action as he came home 13th of 17 behind Biondetti (beaten 15½ lengths). Things didn't go right for him last time over this course and distance when getting upset in the stalls and then having his blindfold removed late, putting him on the back foot immediately, never a good thing around here. However, he made up good ground inside the final furlong from an unpromising position, eventually recovering to come home fifth of nine behind Cosmic Sun (beaten 7¾ lengths) albeit shaping as though he would enjoy a stiffer test of stamina (stoutly-bred). This is likely the final stepping stone towards a mark for nurseries over further than this in the autumn, doing all his best work at the finish over this course and distance last time; may sneak a place but others make greater appeal here, for the short term at least. The Linda Williamson trained Barry Crockett is a gelded son of Modigliani who shaped with promise on his debut in Ireland for Dermot Weld when third of eight in a 7f maiden at Down Royal in June won by Act Of Love (beaten 7 lengths). However, he failed to build on that fair debut effort next time when well beaten in a 1m maiden at Bellewstown in early July, fading from over a furlong out and eventually beating just one rival home behind Vamizi Island (beaten 18½ lengths). He has since changed hands for just £4,200 and looks to have plenty to prove after an ordinary effort last time out in an average contest; step back to 7f may suit but likely to find a few of these too good for him here.
The May Hill Stakes is often a quality race which is often a stepping stone for next year's fillies' classics, and recent winners of the race include Midnight Line, Karasta, Half Glance, Summitville, Playful Act, Spacious and Rainbow View. The selection is a daughter of Dansili who is a half sister to the very smart Midnight Line, winner of this very race in 1997 before going on to place in the Oaks at three, 1m 1f 3yo winner Westerly Air (dam of 7f 2yo winner (for this yard) Floodlit), middle distance winner Thinking Positive and 1m 3yo winner L'Amour, out of a top-class juvenile who also won this race in her racing days and who was a half sister to the dams of top-class pair Imperial Beauty (sprinter) and Jan Vermeer (8-10f). This beautifully-bred filly was unlucky not to make a winning debut in a course and distance fillies' maiden last month, taking up the running entering the final furlong and looking the likely winner until greenness and lack of fitness played their part in her downfall, allowing the more experienced Blue Bunting to get back up close home and score by half a length. However, she made amends in a 1m fillies' maiden at Leicester 10 days ago, proving a bit keen and then losing her position before halfway; travelled strongly towards the rear, however, moving into contention effortlessly and led going easily approaching the final furlong, scoring by a very easy 1½ lengths from Slight Advantage. She was value for much further and looked a very classy prospect, confirming the immense promise of her debut effort; well worth her place in the field and has a similar profile to the yard's 2004 winner of this race, Playful Act, while connections enjoyed success in this race a couple of years ago with the classy Rainbow View; must go well. The Saeed Bin Suroor trained White Moonstone is going to be the short priced favourite here, and the daughter of Dynaformer looked a most exciting prospect when showing a smart turn of foot on the stands' rail on her debut in a 6f fillies' maiden at Ascot in July to see off solid yardstick Florestans Match by 1¼ lengths. She followed that up with victory in the 7f Listed Solera Stakes at Newmarket (July) a couple of weeks later, held up but coming through smoothly on the far side to lead over a furlong out and stayed on well despite drifting across to the far side rail to score by a comfortable 1¼ lengths from Crying Lightening. The fact she was able to run out such a commanding winner despite drifting across to the far side rail only further heightens her potential, also showing a smart turn of foot from the back of the field; this step up to a mile looks well within her compass and something of a surprise if she wasn't right there at the finish. The Ed Dunlop trained Musharakaat is a nicely-bred daughter of Iffraaj who created a deep impression when making a winning debut in a 7f fillies' maiden at Kempton in July. She was sent off an unfancied 14/1 chance and had to be dropped in from her wide draw, but she travelled nicely throughout and moved into contention down the centre of the track passing the two furlong marker, quickening smartly inside the final furlong to forge clear and see off Sahafh by 2¼ lengths. She raced a little too keenly when eventually coming home in fifth behind White Moonstone in the Solera Stakes last time, seemingly paying the price for her earlier exuberance inside the final furlong as she faded to come home six lengths adrift of the winner. She is almost certainly capable of better and she looks the type who will improve with experience, simply too free last time; plenty of work to do to reverse the placings with White Moonstone here, but she looks a smart prospect who should be able to get closer if settling better than she did last time. The Mick Channon trained Sonning Rose has already shown herself to be a useful performer, running the smart Crown Prosecutor to a neck on her debut at Goodwood before following up in good style when seeing off the exposed but fair performer Whisper Louise by 1¼ lengths, overcoming trouble in running to win well. She then took the step up to Listed company in her stride when finding only the impressive Zaidan too good for her in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot next time, finding plenty of trouble in running as the race began to take shape before finally getting a clear run and running on well to take second inside the final furlong, going down by 3 lengths. She wasn't seen again until late last month when contesting the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, racing towards the rear and never really able to land a blow in at the principals as she came home last of seven behind the exciting Theyskens' Theory, though was beaten a little under five lengths. It could well have been that the outing was needed after three months away from the track and she raced on the slowest ground she has encountered to date on that occasion; no forlorn hope now upped to a mile, a trip that has always promised to suit her well, for all she faces a couple of exciting prospects in the lightly raced pair of Midnight Caller and White Moonstone. The Paul Cole trained Lily Again has shown a useful level of form throughout her career, following her winning debut at Kempton with a second place finish in a conditions contest in France, then ran a creditable race in fifth behind Memory in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket (July), keeping on well close home having been short of room at a crucial stage. She seemed well suited to the extra furlong when landing a 7f Listed contest at Sandown, making all and responding gamely for pressure inside the final furlong to hold off all comers, seeing off Cochabamba to score by a length, and that rival has since placed at a higher level whilst the third placed filly, Crying Lightening, chased home White Moonstone in a Group 3 last time. Her latest outing came in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes over in Ireland at the Curragh when finishing fourth of nine behind Laughing Lashes, unable to quicken inside the final furlong. That form has worked out exceptionally well, with the second placed Misty For Me reversing the form with Laughing Lashes to win the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes next time; however, this filly is a little more exposed than a few of her rivals here, and much will depends on how much improvement there is for this step up to a mile. The James Given trained Fenella Fudge is a daughter of Rock Hard Ten who has shown a similar level of form in a couple of useful maidens, the first which was a 7f contest at Doncaster in July when finishing third behind Clinical, slowly into stride and finding plenty of trouble but holding every chance until fading near the finish to come home half a length down on the ultimately decisive winner. She matched that form in what was officially a better fillies' maiden over the same distance at Glorious Goodwood when third behind Kalahaag, attempting to make all and keeping on well once headed until her effort again flattened out close home, finishing ¾ length down on the winner. However, for all she has shaped with obvious promise, this represents a major step up in class; yard took this with Summitville a few years back but this filly will need to improve out of all recognition to break her maiden tag at the third time of asking at this exalted level.
3.25 Sandown - MUSAWAMA
A typically decent looking maiden for the track in which a handful of these went with real promise on debut, and they face a trio of nicely-bred newcomers from leading yards. The selection is a son of Azamour who is out of an unraced half sister to the yard's 1000 Guineas winner Lahan, herslef out of a winning half sister to the dam of high-class 5/7f performer Finjaan. This colt is trained by John Gosden and he made his debut in a 7f maiden at Newbury last month though was obviously in need of the outing, being sent off an unconsidered 25/1 chance; shaped with an abundance of promise however, travelling well for a long way off the pace and not being subjected to a hard race whatsoever as things developed in front of him, keeping on nicely in the closing stages for a hand ride to finish fourth (clear of the rest) behind the impressive Saamidd (beaten 9 lengths). This extra furlong is sure to suit on that evidence, and entries in the Royal Lodge, Racing Post Trophy and next year's Derby all suggest the extra furlong here will play to his strengths. Clearly a well regarded colt, he is sure to step up appreciably on what he showed on debut under a purely educational ride, something that should see him go very well here; extra furlong also certain to bring out yet further improvement from this son of Azamour. The Richard Hannon trained General Synod is a son of Invincible Spirit who is a is a half brother to the yard's dual 6f winner Instalment (including on 2yo debut), 10f 3yo winner Regent's Park and 1m 3yo winner Small Fortune, out of a useful 9-10f winner who was a half sister to the high-class 8-10f performer Right Approach, a Grade 1 winner over 1m 1f in the UAE. This Racing Post Trophy entry was sent off the 5/4 market leader ahead of his debut outing in a 7f maiden at Newbury last month (the first division being the maiden the re-opposing Muwasama contested - a race run in a quicker time) but could only manage second; sat a little worse than midfield until pushed up to mount a challenge over two furlongs out, taking a while to hit full stride but picking up well enough throughout the final furlong to take a clear second behind cosy winner Treasury Devil who always had the measure of this colt, scoring by a comfortable ¾ length margin. It was a decent debut performance from this smartly-bred colt, unable ever pose a serious threat to the winner but coming nicely clear of the rest; skipped an engagement at Salisbury last week on account of the drying conditions and arrives here as a leading contender, this extra furlong looking sure to suit on both pedigree and the way in which he was doing all his best at work at the finish on debut. The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained Arc Light is a son of Shamardal who met with strong support in spite of appearing to be the yard's second string on jockey bookings on his debut in a 7f newcomers' race at Newmarket (July) last month, going off the 5/1 market leader under the guidance of 7lbs claimer Antioco Murgia. However, he failed to justify the strong market support as he came home in fifth behind stablemate Biondetti, looking a lot less clued up than is often the case with his yard's newcomers, slowly away and making sustained headway into contention until fading throughout the final furlong to come home 3½ lengths adrift of his victorious stablemate. He again shaped with encouragement when third behind subsequent winner Cai Shen in a 7f maiden here a couple of weeks later, again breaking slowly but making good headway to challenge over two furlongs out, keeping on well without ever being able to match the winner, losing second close home (beaten 2½ lengths). This step up to a mile looks sure to suit on the evidence of his two outings to date, simply lacking the speed of the front running winner here last time; yard's juveniles often know what is required of them from an early stage but this colt appears to be a slower maturing type and is entitled to be in the mix here, for all he faces some potentially smart once raced rivals who could well improve past him. The Sir Michael Stoute trained Adone is a son of Araafa who is a half brother to the smart UK/UAE sprint performer Greek Renaissance, high-class middle distance performer Side Saddle, useful 6-7f winner Machinist and 7f 3yo winner Athens, out of a 10f 3yo winner who was a half sister to very smart dual purpose performer Landing Light. This colt made his debut in a traditionally strong 7f maiden at Newmarket (July) last month when one of four from the yard in the race, going off a relatively unconsidered 20/1 chance; however, he showed definite signs of promise back in seventh behind Seattle Drive, unable to quicken with the principals approaching the final furlong but finishing nicely clear of the remainder (beaten 9 lengths). He is sure to have derived plenty of experience for that kind introduction, shaping with a good deal of promise in what is likely to be a very good contest; yard's 2yos have been improving for their first outing on the whole in recent seasons and something of a surprise if this colt wasn't on the premises here, this extra furlong looking likely to suit judged on his debut performance when lacking the speed of those ahead of him. There are a trio of interesting newcomers in the field, headed by the John Gosden trained Unex Renoir, a son of a Nayef who is a half brother to 10f 3yo debut winner Tajaarub and German middle distance winner Germanicus, out of a lightly raced winner in Germany who was a half sister to the top-class middle distance performer Sabiango and a half sister to the top-class middle distance globetrotter Silvano. This colt fetched 80,000gns as a yearling at auction and clearly makes a good amount of appeal on pedigree, albeit he is bred to come into his own over middle distances at three; yard have saddled a winning newcomer in these colours recently (Unex El Greco) and any market support beforehand would look interesting. The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained Shooting Party is a son of Shamardal who is a half brother to 10f 3yo debut winner Leningrad (disappointing thereafter) and 7f 3yo winner Royal Robe, out of a 1m 1f 3yo winner in France who was a half sister to the top-class 8-10f winner Mill Native, the very smart miler French Stress and smart juvenile sprinter American Stress. This colt fetched €80,000 as a yearling and is another newcomer to make plenty of appeal on pedigree; the booking of 7lbs claimer Antioco Murgia suggests this colt is second string here behind Arc Light, but he has steered a handful of 2yos to victory for this yard this season and interesting to see whether this colt attracts any support beforehand, especially as his yard have them ready to roll first time out. The third newcomer in the lineup is the Roger Charlton trained Camberley Two, a son of Invincible Spirit who is a half brother to useful dual purpose performer Diamond Frontier, out of a maiden half sister to the high-class middle distance performer Diamond Mix and the twice raced 12f Group 3 French winner Diasilixa. This colt went for 82,000gns as a yearling and his pedigree is a mixture of speed and stamina; yard do have the odd winning newcomer, but a vast majority of their newcomers improve significantly for their debut outing and this colt is possibly best watched on this occasion.
This conditions race often attracts some of the more impressive maiden winners of the summer and has been won in recent years by the likes of Maghanim, Saabeeh, Librettist, Secrecy and Al Zir, and this year's renewal, indeed, sees a couple of the more taking debut winners of the summer. The selection is a son of Galileo who is closely related to the yard's high-class Bullet Train, a 1m 2yo debut winner who won the Lingfield Derby Trial at three, out of a high-class sprint performer who was a half sister to the top-class middle distance performer Powerscourt, out of a Lancashire Oaks winner from a classy family. This colt is trained by Henry Cecil and had shown up extremely well in his work ahead of his debut outing in a 1m maiden at Newmarket (July) last month, going off the well fancied 7/4 market leader. He was tucked in behind the pace and sat a little worse than midfield early, proving a little free under restraint; moved closer passing the halfway stage, going noticeably well, but was soon was nudged along to take closer order passing the two furlong marker. He quickened smartly in between rivals before coming back onto the bit entering the final furlong and cruising alongside market rival Nathaniel before being shaken up 100 yards out, quickly putting a seal on matters to run out a very comfortable winner by half a length. He was value for a lot further than eventual winning margin communicates, simply toying with his closest pursuer inside the final furlong before asserting when asked close home, doing so readily. His work since that taking debut victory has been very impressive and this step back to 7f shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience given his dam was a speedy sort who won over 5f; has met with ante-post support for the 2000 Guineas in recent days and no surprise to see him preserve his 100% record with victory here before returning to this track later in the season for the Racing Post Trophy; top-class prospect. The Saeed Bin Suroor trained Farhh is a son of Pivotal who is the first foal of a very smart middle distance performer in Germany who was a half sister to connections' high-class 6-9f winner Gonfila, dam of this year's useful 6f 2yo Signs In The Sand. This colt made a deep impression when landing a 7f maiden at Newmarket (July) back in July when sent off the 7/4 joint-favourite; travelled effortlessly throughout and moved through to take up the running passing the two furlong marker. He soon put distance between himself and a useful enough field, many of his rivals having shown promise previously (including in pattern company) and holding the edge in terms of experience, showing a smart turn of foot to quickly put six lengths between himself and Flodden. The form doesn't look the strongest, with the runner up and fourth (twice) since beaten, and it could be argued that Superlative Stakes fifth Ocean Bay ran well below his best; however, this colt made such a deep visual impression that it is hard not to believe he won't make up into a very smart colt. He represents a yard who has won this with the likes of Librettist and Al Zir in recent seasons, so it is a race they clearly target with their better sorts, and he is likely to see that this won't be plain sailing for Frankel whatsoever. The Barry Hills trained Diamond Geezah showed decent early season form, showing promise in his opening two outings over 5f (including in the Brocklesby here on the opening day of the season), but disappointed when only fourth in a maiden at Chester over the same distance (evens favourite). However, he didn't disgrace himself when eighth of 14 behind Marine Commando in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot next time, following up with victory at the fifth attempt when appearing to relish the step up to 7f with a convincing display in a maiden at Ayr, staying on well throughout the final furlong to see off Next Edition by 2¼ lengths. He then found subsequent Listed winner Royal Exchange unsurprisingly too good for him in a competitive 7f nursery at Glorious Goodwood, leading over a furlong out and still in front well inside the final furlong until headed close home by the ultimately decisive winner, beaten half a length. His latest outing came in a valuable sales race back over 6f at York's Ebor meeting, staying on well inside the final furlong to come home in sixth behind the smart looking Wootton Bassett, looking as though the return to this trip would be in his favour. However, he is a lot more exposed than the aforementioned duo of Frankel and Farhh, both of whom looked top-class prospect when making winning debuts; undoubtedly a useful performer, and this return to 7f will suit him, but surely vulnerable to more unexposed rivals here. The Paul Cole trained Colarado Gold showed just fair form in sprint maidens earlier in the season, chasing home the useful Fifth Ave home in a 5f maiden at Bath on his second outing. He came good at the fourth time of asking when making all and staying on well throughout the final furlong to land a 6f auction maiden at Leicester from the useful Sonaran Sands, scoring by 2 lengths. He attempted to repeat the trick when upped to 7f for a novices' contest at Newmarket (July) next time but was soon swept aside by classy looking newcomer Peter Martins, taking care of the rest of the field but coming home five lengths adrift of the impressive winner. His latest outing came in a 7f Listed contest over in Deauville but came up well short, prominent but soon put in his place once the race began to take shape, eventually beating just one rival home behind Hung Parliament. The fact he was so readily brushed aside by smart looking newcomer Peter Martins on his penultimate outing underlines the fact he is vulnerable to improvers, and he faces a couple of exciting prospects in Frankel and Farhh here, so unlikely to be good enough once again. The fifth and final member of the field is the John Gosden trained newcomer Rainbow Springs, a daughter of Selkirk who is a half sister to the useful dual 7f 2yo winner Ridge Dance and fair maiden That's My Style, out of a 6f 2yo debut winner who later placed at the top level in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. This filly makes plenty of appeal on pedigree and holds an entry in this month's Fillies' Mile, underlining the fact she has been showing up well at home; faced with a stiff task on debut but the fact her astute handler pitches her in at the deep end suggests he believes this filly can hold her own, and there have been one or two newcomers who have won this over the years on debut, the most recent being Secrecy in 2008; interesting to see how much confidence there is behind her in the market beforehand. _________________ Dark Horses 2012 - Flat
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Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 6:24 pm Post subject:
Opinion Poll (2.40 Doncaster) (NAP)
The Doncaster Cup is what we have here and I believe that top weight Opinion Poll can continue his decent form and land this race with last year’s winner Askar Tau and Samuel as the two main threats. Opinion Poll has won six of his eleven starts with all having come on the turf, first attempt over this 18f trip but when winning over 16f last time out he was staying on well and I do not see the step up as a problem, he has only had two previous starts on good ground and he has produced wins on both of those starts. This is his first visit to Doncaster but everything is saying that it should suit him, he is unbeaten in three starts round left handed tracks and he has also won four from five on flat tracks so this track at Donny should suit him perfectly. He is twice a class one winner and has won both starts in races open to three year olds or older. He comes here off the back of winning the Lonsdale Cup (Group 2) at York last time out, that was over two miles on good ground and he beat Samuel by half a length, Samuel is 3lbs better off today but I believe the step up in trip will suit Opinion Poll more although Samuel should be in the mix. Askar Tau has not been in the greatest of form of late and is also a runner who has not impressed when returning from a sixty or more day break but a return to Doncaster might just light a spark and I believe that he will be in the mix but for me I believe that Opinion Poll can build on his Lonsdale Cup win and land this Doncaster Cup here today.
Master Lightfoot (2.50 Sandown)
The drop in class will benefit Master Lightfoot here and he is the one I believe can land this race with top weight Matterofact rated as the main threat. Master Lightfoot has won just once from six starts on the turf with the majority of his form coming on the all weather where he has won twice and placed in five from twelve starts. All three of his wins have come over this trip and his only win on the turf came on good ground on just one of his two starts on good ground. He has been here to Sandown twice, disappointed on his debut back in 2008 and despite finishing seventh of thirteen sour starts ago here he was only two and quarter lengths off the winner in a higher class race and he is 3lbs lower today than that run. His sole win on the turf came at Windsor back in April in a class four race off a mark of 72, he is off 75 today but running in a lower class and he has won off 75 on the all weather and I am sure he is capable off this mark on the turf. First time down in this class for nine runs and I believe he will benefit from that and he can go on to land this race with Matterofact as the main threat under a 6lb penalty.
Rock N Roll Ransom (4.00 Sandown)
Rock N Roll Ransom won his first two starts but struggled last time out off the same mark as he goes off today but I believe he can bounce back here and continue his impressive start to his career. On his debut under the guidance of JP Guillambert he landed a maiden at Nottingham over a mile on good to soft ground when beaten Dhaafer by two lengths, from the runners who finished behind him that day they have produced three wins so there is some form there. For his next start he headed to Salisbury to again run over the mile trip but this time on good to firm ground and a switch in the saddle saw Martin Dwyer come in and he should some determination when landing the race by a head, it was his handicap debut off a mark of 83. He stepped up in trip when going to Goodwood last time out to run over 11f on good to firm ground and he was also stepping up in class once again, he had to deal with a 5lb rise in the handicap and had Keiren Fallon in the saddle but he could only finish in seventh place and six and half lengths off the winner, the trip didn’t suit off that mark and he faded last one so the drop back in trip today will be much better for him with him running off the same mark of 88. It is a tough race with the majority of these open to improvement including my selection but I just believe that the drop back in trip will suit and he can go on to land this race with Space War the main threat.
Guest Book (4.45 Chester)
Adrian Nicholls comes in to saddle Mark Johnston’s runner Guest Book here at Chester, Nicholls doesn’t have too many rides for this yard but he shows a small profit when saddling their three year old runners. Guest Book is making a step up in class today and also a step up in trip, after going over 6f on his debut his last three starts have all come over 7f but he is stepping up to 10f today for the first time. He has won on good ground though which came three starts ago at Chepstow over 7f and kept on well which would suggest he could go further but will he handle to extra 3f, well his half sister Youhadyourwarning was a winner over 12f when she was 3 so I do not see any reason why he cannot handle to step up in trip. He was disappointing last time out but one thing I can say is that all four of his previous starts have been on tougher courses than this and this will be the fast time that he has been out on a flat track and he has shown some speed and therefore I believe he can land this race with Rigidity looking a big threat.
Following my max Each Way on Thursday on Galtymore Lad and max win on Frosted Grape the day before I am going in all guns blazing again on Friday
2.05 DoncasterThe Mallard StakesTACTICIAN
This high class valuable handicap over 14 furlongs has been won by 3yos on no less than 16 of the last 22 occassions and that stat alone is enough to make me discard all of the older horses and focus solely on the four 3yos that are entered. All four of these merit serious consideration so let's see what they have to offer.
First of all, Maxim Gorky is a progressive young stayer from the Stoute yard. I actually backed him at 4/1 last time out when he won well over a similar trip at Newmarket beating one of todays rivals in Plymouth Rock and I expect him to confirm the form. However, this horse has shown a pronounced preference for soft going and although he may well act on the prevailing going he may also not be at his best. As I say I've already had a very good win off him when I thought he was a real good thing so I'll pass today.
The other 3 all ran against each other in the Melrose Stakes at York where Mount Athos won beating Tactician into second with Zuider Zee quite a few lengths back in 4th place. Mount Athos veered badly across the track and probably would have won by further had he kept straight and has every chance of confirming the form.
However, I have strong reasons to believe that Tactician has been brought along for an autumn campaign and that he is ready to run a huge race today. Firstly, looking at his 3yo season so far, he won on seasonal debut over 11 furlongs in April and was then not seen until running 8th in the King George Stakes won by Dandino at Royal Ascot where he raced keenly tracking the leaders. We know how strong the form of that race was and for a very inexperienced horse (just his 4th start) it would have come as a bit of a shock. He then ran in a small field handicap where the winner was given a good front running ride before running second at York. Clearly he has reached peak fitness and has started to learn to race.
Secondly, and very interestingly, he made his racecourse debut at this meeting last year where he was very well backed and an unlucky in running second to Coordinated Cut in the Bawtry Maiden (which was won today by Picture Editor). It seems likely to me that in fact this race has been a long term target and that his season may well have been geared around it once his won his maiden.
Yes, he has ground to make up on the York form but at the prices I have to give him the chance to show that he is ready to explode and run big numbers and therefore I make him a maximum Each Way recommendation.
Be lucky folks
GUTTED! Held up in a slow run race has to squeeze through a gap and finishes 5th beaten a short head for fourth place and a payout. He really needed a very strongly run race today so that weight for age kicked in. Aww well
Last edited by judoman on Fri Sep 10, 2010 5:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
Not been getting involved recently but doing pretend placepots, to keep myself interested and in touch...today I'm doing them for real
Doncaster
1. Zebedee NAP - Proved he's a bit good both times since defeat in the Norfolk and can take this competitive race given his turn of foot. He has never once been fully asked for everything. The only blot on his copy book being the Norfolk Stakes, and that was because they had him race prominently and he proved that running all wrong when comfortably beating Stone of Folca next time. Last time out was a poor race but they went there to take the big prize and did it with ease, Hughes never once reverted to the whip and had him always just doing enough, it was a conservative ride given the new trip but he coped easily and he has bags more left to give clearly over 6f and even back at 5f today. There is in opposition a couple of smart prospects in New Planet and Electric Waves. But when Hannon Jnr says in an interview (video on RP somewhere) prior to his penultimate start that he is "probably our best 2 year old" should make you sit up and take note when the likes of Libranno, Strong Suit, King Torus and others are mopping up in higher company.
2. Fortuni - Inconvenienced last time by being hampered and then racing alone and weakening out of it, subject to a few big bets that day suggesting better was expected and less hard luck stories will see him as a big threat to all. His facile win two starts back well advertised, with the runner up (Cill Rialaig) winning next time then running well behind the progressing Eastern Aria LTO.
The Betchworth Kid - has cut little ice in two flat starts this term, the latest being the Ebor where he just never landed a blow held up from well off the pace by Hayley turner, made a bit of headway but nothing substantial. He won this in 2008 under hayley, today Dale Swift rides claiming 5lb and should now be fully fit and have no excuses in a weaker race than LTO.
Might also be worth chucking in La Vechia Scuola from the yard who won this last term, and the horse himself finished 3rd in 2008 behind the TBK.
3. Motrice - carrying next to no weight this can be the day in the sun for S De Sousa who is riding out of his skin. This 3yo filly took the step up to Group company in her stride lto in the pretty polly, finishing a good 3rd but looking like this thorough staying trip would be ideal. Against the boys today but feather weight and still progressing.
4. Lily Again - Solid, consistent and open to improvement upped in trip. Form much more solid and more reliable than that of the fav, and a godolphin runner can put in a stinker at any time, this one looks set to give her running. Even if white moonstone does prove too good, nothing else looks good enough to fill the runner up spot.
5. Mr David NB - just looks set to outclass and looks too good for these. Money was down in group company on return, shaped as though he needed it though. drop in trip slightly no issue.
6. Frankel, Rainbow Springs and Farrhh - all 3 because If I get this far I'm not risking on defeat at all. Frankel being the most promising 2yo I have seen but might not be suited by drop back to 7f. Which is why Farhh is picked as he is upped in trip after a mega promising debut. Whilst it is interesting Gosden should pitch his runner in at this level.
Electrolyser is a lightly raced 5yr old grey related to Sadlers Wells, a real strong traveller, goes well on soft & has alot of potential still & can certainly confirm that in a winnable race here today.
Although finishing behind Opinion Poll & Samuel on his latest outing I feel he can reverse the form here with a little help from some rain & the weights...as Opinon Poll has been clobered with an extra 3lbs which could make all the difference.
The grey ran a great second at goodwood behind illustrious blue by a length & had more left in the tank, a definate stayer.
Although both left handed York is abit trickier to handle & the conditions (with a little forecasted rain) at Doncaster should suit. Queally takes the ride today which is an improvement while Robinson (hes usual rider) takes opinion poll, interesting as this decision could back fire...
Electrolyser 15/2 _________________ 'A penalty is a cowardly way to score', Pele
Cloudy city is 10-1 as on form it is not great,but it sure isnt no turf horse..but is has aw previous here,when producing a fast time over 12f in june of this year only loosing out to useful sort Yashrid..
"slowly into stride, in rear, headway on outer 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, stayed on well and held towards finish"
didnt start well but stayed on gamely and connections have been running it at 16f,which tells me 14f will suit just right,and is very well weighted here and early market support would be nice,carries 1 stone 1 pound less than the jolly,who looks a nice sort, so have gone ew _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts SELECTIONS PROFIT/LOSS 2012+15.5pts
I seem to be obsessed with Meehan 2yo's at the moment and I think that probably cost me a winner yesterday with Wootton Bassett however there's another one running today that I feel has a great chance so here goes....
Captain Bertie will be favourite here and his debut run was in a hot Newbury maiden that has produced 5 subsequent winners, however he was rather disappointing next time out when beaten by newcomer, Pausanias, at Goodwood in July.
That could again work out to be a hot race but I'm prepared to take a chance with the once raced Sisindu, trained by Brian Meehan. Apparently this colt has come on in leaps and bounds since his initial Newmarket run behind Biondetti, a race that itself has produced 3 subsequent winners and other good performances. That day Sisindu was Meehan's second string and unfancied but he stayed on well in the final furlong and showed a lot of promise.
The booking of Ahern looks significant here and I don't think they'd do that unless they were confident of a good run.
Sisindu has been entered in the Dewhurst but I would think unlikely to start in that race unless he's extremely impressive today. He is currently 7/2 and I make him a strong bet to open his account.
Joined: 08 Oct 2009
Posts: 3709
Location: Asking Big Bucks to finish Grand Crus
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:58 am Post subject:
1.35 DONCASTER - MEOW (NB) The Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes is one of the best races on the card at the Leger meeting regarding the two year olds and today we see some high ability yearlings line up for what is a serious contest. A total of thirteen runners look to be set and ready to go for the race. New Planet looks a special sort for J J Quinn and looks to be a big name for a small stable and Kieren Fallon really praised the horse after the win last time out at York and the horse has continued to work well at home and with just the two starts to his name looks to have a lot of ability and improvement still in the horse. Zebedee is the Hannon representative however this horse has had a long and tough season already and looks to be vulnerable to something that could improve past the colt. The selection is from the David Wachman yard and comes over from the Irish Sea and has a serious chance in todays Flying Childers. Meow made its debut at Dundalk when racing too keen but did finish only a short head behind Moment of Weakness who has since been only moderate. However, Meow has improved since that by taking a nice race at Tipperary in very good style before being stepped up in a group 2 at Ascot. That race was won by Maqaasid who was pressed all the way by Meow. The form of the race hasn't really worked out well however, you have to remember that many of the horses who were entered into that race such as Maqaasid had hard raced and reappeared pretty quickly, whereas David Wachman kept the horse back for a mark at a listed race at the Curragh where it was evident that even though the horse won, Meow did need the run, and looked a bit tired when going close home. Meow should have improved from that run and is likely to be fitter and fresher for todays event and hopefully this is that horses big prize.
2.05 DONCASTER - FORTUNI (NAP) The Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes is one of two staying events on the card at Doncaster today and will be televised by Channel Four. Mount Athos is the selection from Pricewise and that horse is likely to prove a big danger to all if running to form, but Mount Athos doesnt have a great record of keeping the same run of races and consistency. Fortuni is the selection from the Mark Prescott yard which will be ridden by Seb Sanders today. The York Ebor was the last target for Fortuni however the race didnt really work out for the horse, he had to be shaken up to lead and then was tackled by Overturn before turning into the stretch when Overturn was weakening, Sanders had to tighten up Fortuni on the rail allowing the others to go at least six lengths past him and then Fortuni was left on his own on the far side rail at York and used a lot of energy to get with the leaders outside the furlong before the events of the race told on the horse and then eased close home by Seb Sanders. We can put a line through that race but what to notice from that race was that Sanders was pretty keen to make the running that day and that would leave the thought that todays trip shouldn't be a problem considering the stable opted for those prominent tactics in what is one of the biggest staying handicaps of the year so i have no worry of stamina going into todays Mallard. Ruling out that run, Fortuni absolutely routed his rivals when running over a mile and a half at Epsom and nothing got near the horse, and the horse just kept finding and finding. That effort makes me think that he is still a well handicapped horse stepping up in trip off this mark of 95. With only a few pacemakers in the field, Fortuni should be able to make the running today and hopefully we shall see the same finish we saw at Epsom when nothing will get past the horse.
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