All Weather Racing 2009

jeremiah catskill · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 08 Jun 2006 Posts: 1933

For those with long memories, you may remember me from 2007 when i started a long running thread on AW racing.

At the time i found it a very profitable area to bet in & i tried to educate & involve people in an area of racing that is often looked down upon. I fell out of love with it over last winter when there were far too many races & far too many strange results for my liking.

Well, its time to give it another go.

Over the next month or so, i intend to look at all things AW & post them up on here. partly because it would be a good thread to re-ignite & secondly to get me back into the swing of the AW scene. The season starts in earnest soon & it would be good to come at it fresh.

What i intend to do, is look at the courses, the sires, the draws, the trainers etc & shed some light on which horses may do best.

However, lists won't make you profit, form reading with the stats in your mind will. To that end i intend to choose a race a day, do a short analysis & INVITE people to offer their thoughts both before & after the race.

The after discussion is the time to learn from the events & improve race reading.

Saying that, todays racing at kempton looks unispiring but i will offer a race up later in the day alongside some stats about Kempton

trickstar · Group 2 Class Joined: 27 Jul 2008 Posts: 130

Looking forward to it Jeremiah the last thread you did on the AW Racing earned me a tidy little profit so looking forward to the new updated version keep up the good work Win

jeremiah catskill · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 08 Jun 2006 Posts: 1933

As a starter for 10 - not the race i want to look at, being a 2yr olds race, but I have a theory about tracks with large draw bias & 2 yr olds.

Younger horses often need a rail or a strong bias to help them & with there being such a strong bias towards those drawn high over sprint distances here at Kempton, i wondered how profitable looking at those big fields here at kempton for 2 yr olds.

At a very basic level, i looked at 2 yr old race with 10 or more runners over 5f.

Backing the highest drawn horse has seen an amazing 40% strike rate 8/20 & a profit of 20.5 pts - doubling your money.

Todays highest drawn is Italian Tom who is also the only winner in the field.

I don't bet much on these races but its an interesting point to start with.

I will post a separate post on the kempton draw bias.

Comments welcome! Cool

curwinkle · Stallion Joined: 13 Mar 2009 Posts: 7345

Just a quick one, is the much difference between for example, the AW surface at Lingfield, the rather sandy stuff at Southwell and the AW at Kempton?

Southwell looks much slower to me with a lot of kickback, does this affect times/results etc? Win

DaveTehTipst0r · Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:23 pm Post subject:

JC - correct me if im wrong but.... Curwinkle - yes there is loads of difference and yes i beleive southwell rides slower than ling for example.

JC thread a year or two back was awesome, facts, stats, everything!

looking forward to this

welcome back JC

jeremiah catskill · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 08 Jun 2006 Posts: 1933

There are differences & especially with Southwell

Southwell is the only fibresand track as opposed to polytrack.

It rides a bit deeper & horses that tend to like the soft on the turf prefer it here, with horses that like faster going prefering the other 3 tracks.

However its not the slowest track. Based on 6f races Wolverhampton is slightly slower - based on standard times.

Fibresand rides a bit like the American dirt tracks. Its harder to quicken on these tracks which give the impression they are running slower , however the pace is more equally paced over the whole distance.

The following are the 6f standard times & the equivalent yrd / sec. The higher the yards - the quicker they go!

Lingfield - 18.57 yds/sec
kempton - 18.26
Southwell - 17.93
Wolves - 17.90

turfline · Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:54 pm Post subject:

Hi JC nice to hear from you, i must say i did not go to much on the A/Weather but have changed my out-look on it, and i do think good profits can be made from it, looking forward to your input.

Your Italian Tom 6.20 looks very interesting.

I do most bets on the A/W as Lays, and trialed it for 9 months before i started punting on it real time.

One of interest To-Nite is The Scorching Wind 8.20...Kempton.

Reasons why.... has gone up 12Lbs for its last win.

Both its last two wins have been against its own age group ...3 year olds, to-nites race is in an all-aged group of hardened handicap battlers.

Plus the two previous races this animal has won were worth �7,300 each and to-nites is worth just �2,590.

Would the connections want to have another 6lbs added to this animals mark for a small prize ????.

Odds-on with most bookmakers for to-nites race.

oscarwolfe · Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:21 pm Post subject:

Tuckers Law for me!! Lose

_________________
Oscarwolfe

ExoticDancer · At Stud Joined: 01 Apr 2009 Posts: 3941

Welcome back JC and well done on Italian Tom, looking forward to your thread Win

leathehat · Group 2 Class Joined: 12 Aug 2008 Posts: 177

wish i had read your email sooner missed it by 6 mins!!!!!!

arrrh always hate to miss a winner, looking forward to the thread

dialup2 · Group 2 Class Joined: 30 Mar 2006 Posts: 158

welcome back JC, use to love reading ure aw posts

looking forward to reading ure posts once again!! Win

Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 8391

A nice start to the thread with a 2/1 winner and a successful Lay at 8/13. For those who want to read more here are a couple of older threads on this subject. The AW thread and a thread about AW surfaces.