Common Myths

[jeremiah catskill]

Thought I'd start this thread to debunk a few myths & help our profitability. Feel free to contribute - all info would be helpful

Sorry about the formatting - I can't seem to get it as a table!

Myth no.1 - One I see often is that lightly raced horses are good value to improve
The following table shows the comparitive no of races of the selection against the average of all other runners in the race.

eg all runners have raced 10 times but our lightly raced selection has run only 4 - this is shown as 40% on the chart. As you can see the more exposed the runner is the greater the strike rate & the profit(or less of a loss)
Wins Runs SR Profit ROI

< 10% 2,919 43,557 6.7% (18,874) -43.3%
10 - 29% 1,881 21,942 8.6% (8,914) -40.6%
30 - 44% 2,905 29,409 9.9% (10,429) -35.5%
45 - 59% 3,629 33,799 10.7% (9,831) -29.1%
60 - 69% 2,546 23,988 10.6% (7,297) -30.4%
70 - 79% 2,702 23,537 11.5% (6,679) -28.4%
80 - 89% 2,708 24,025 11.3% (7,064) -29.4%
90 - 100% 2,989 25,564 11.7% (7,231) -28.3%
101 - 124% 5,458 45,227 12.1% (11,214) -24.8%
125+% 12,926 116,276 11.1% (36,967) -31.8%

Another table purely looks at number of races run by each runner - this also backs up the debunking of the myth

Wins Runs SR Profit ROI

first ever run 2,885 42,709 6.8% (18,406) -43.1%
second ever run 2,584 36,162 7.2% (20,460) -56.6%
2 previous races run 2,524 30,876 8.2% (15,283) -49.5%
3 previous races run 2,492 26,715 9.3% (10,378) -38.9%
4 previous races run 2,440 23,348 10.5% (7,798) -33.4%
5/6 prev races run 4,594 39,026 11.8% (10,325) -26.5%
7/8 prev races run 3,998 31,229 12.8% (6,813) -21.8%
9-12 prev races run 6,224 46,668 13.3% (8,025) -17.2%
13-20 prev races run 7,266 56,233 12.9% (11,035) -19.6%
21+ previous races run 5,765 55,310 10.4% (16,286) -29.5%

[jeremiah catskill]

[b]Myth no 2. _ look at horse where the jockey only has one ride at the meeting[/b]The following table looks at good jockeys (over 16% Strike rate in the current season) & sees how they perform based on how many rides the have at the meeting (please note all these notes are based around NH only)

You can see you do worse the fewer rides the jockey has!!

[jamjar0207]

So looking at the statistics do you think it's worth laying jockeys with only one ride?

[jeremiah catskill]

It's a good starting point

[jeremiah catskill]

Myth no 3 - Following the money.

Everybody gets excited over the so called steamer but do is it prove profitable?

NO is the answer. Yes they win more the more they contract but you lose all value.

Looking at NH favs only -

Favs that contract in price lose 9.24% ROI
Favs that drift lose less at 6.28%

Breaking the above down into handicap/non handicap

Favs that drift in handicaps lose 10.86%
Favs that drift in non handicaps only lose 1.28%

Buy adding only a couple more rules you have profit without thinking!!

ie. ignoring those that came 1st,2nd or 3rd LTO made you 3.73%
only look at hurdles with the above & you're upto 5.76%

A classic case of ignoring the crowd to make money.

[jeremiah catskill]

Combining the above 3 - to form a selective system

ie. Forecast fav that drifts in price
Non handicap hurdle ridden by a decent jockey (>12% strike rate)
Run at least 3 times ( i allow newcomers as they offer value & by definition can't improve)
Ignore horses in the first 3 LTO & any horse ridden by that jockeys only ride in the race..
By combining these 3 myths you get a 20.5% ROI over 10 years & a 37% strike rate.

Any other myths or reverse psychology from anyone to help beat the bookies?

[jeremiah catskill]

Joystick - a profit of 1.82% & a strike rate of 46.3%

All my data is from 1994-2004 via RSB NH

Take out the tricky transitional months of Nov & Dec & it rises to 6.4% ROI & a 48.4% Strike rate

[jeremiah catskill]

Myth no. 4

A good horse goes on any ground

No stats needed - it's just nonsense

[jeremiah catskill]

Joystick - where do you get your stats on the AW racing from?

[Will8ace]

I love this stuff. Keep it coming, Jeremiah.
_________________
Ordo ab Chao

[tenerman]

Interesting stuff, I wonder if the same criteria applies to Trainers with one runner as those for jockeys.

[jeremiah catskill]

Tenerman - it's fairly flat - the strike rate is slightly higher for the lower amount of runners but the lower odds flattens the whole thing out