Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:03 pm Post subject: UFC 145 Jones vs Evans
I am going to try to find under dog value in this event as there are several with very good chances, so if they dont come in, dont shoot the messenger, and if they do, pats on the back accepted
Jones vs Evans
Jon Jones comes in this fight technically undefeated as his only reversal was a disqualificaton over Matt Hamill, when destroying Hamill he used a couple of illegal "12 to 6" elbow strikes, Jones has destroyed all before him culminating in very easy vistories over Ryan Bader,Shogun Rua,Lyoto Machida and Rampage Jackson. The last 3 being former champions themselves. Rashad Evans also a former champion lost his belt in devastating TKO fashion to Machida (his only loss to date) he has since won comeback fights over Thiago Silva, Rampage, Titio Ortiz and Phil Davis. Whilst "Bones"Jones can attack from any angle with ease "Suga"Rashad is lightening fast with his takedowns, Bones has an array of strikes without having one punch KO power, Suga has that one punch KO power. Evans seems super confident of victory over the heavy favourite this could be down to the fact that they were training partners and insight is a powerful thing.
I fancy Evans to defy his odds and frustrate Jones using his superior takedowns and heavy hands to win a UD decision.
Evans to win @ 7/2 and KO or points @ 4/1
Chad "The garvedigger" Griggs vs Travis "Hapa"Browne
Browne is 12 - 1 -0 in his MMA career and has notable victories with a dull win over Rob Broughton and a KO victory over Stefan Struve, whilst his draw against Cheik Kongo was a very poor fight. Griggs has came over to the UFC after a successful spell in Strikeforce with 11 wins and one submission loss to his name with notable victories over Bobby Lashley, Gian Villante and Valentijn Overeem all by way of finishes.
Griggs has very good takedown, solid stand up and excellent cardio, browne has devasting punching power, limited cardio and no ground game of note, again I like the look of the underdog here in what could be a stand up war for 2 rounds and Griggs cardio being a factor in the 3rd
Griggs to win @ 2/1 Miguel torres vs Michael Macdonald
Miguel Torres has a 40 win 4 fight loss record and has fought some of the best fighters around, however after his UFC debut which was a drab affair he stated that he was not here to please people with his style, just to win, since that debut he has fought another twice one UD win one UD loss, in less than exciting fights. Michale Macdonald is a young up and comer with solid hands and a decent ground game, Torres can only win this if he takes it to the ground and uses his brilliant BJJ game, because if he sticks to his win at safe mode game he will come unstuck against the exciting Macdonald..
Macdonald to win @ even money
Matt brown vs Stephen Thompson
Brown is a tough S.O.B and has never been KO ed,he has 7 KO victories to go with his 5 submission victories and 1 UD win. Thompson is a top draw Karateka who is undefeated in his fights, having made his UFC debut in Feb this year Thompson won in brilliant style with a vicious headkick KO victory over Daniel Stittgon. This fight depends on whether Thompson can use his brilliant Karate skills to keep Brown at bay, or whether Brown can get inside and use his superb Mauy Thai or BJJ skills to win a victory, I am going for the tough as nails Brown to tkae the victory and nice odds.
Brown to win @ 11/5
Ben Rothwell vs Brendan Schaub
Schaub is a TUF product who struck a four run win success together inbetween KO losses to Roy Nelson and Big Nog, Rothwell a former IFL HW champion had an impressive 13 fight win streak before losing to the heavy handed Andre Arlovski, his other two defeats were to future champion Cain Valasquez and rejuvenated Mark Hunt with a UD win over Gilbert Yvel sandwiched inbetween. Schaub has alaways been over rated in my opinion and losses the will if bullied by his opponent, whilst Rothwell is not top of the tree in UFC terms he may posses enough to trouble the heavy fav and bully Schaub into another loss
Rothwell to win @ 2/1
John Makdessi vs Anthonny Njokuani
A battle of the kickboxers here as both men are renowned for their striking skills. Njokuani is 14 and 6 in his MMA career whilst 5 and 5 in his last 10 and 1 and 2 in his 3 UFC fights,( all 3 via decision) Makdessi comes into the fight with a 9 and 1 win ratio 2 to 1 in the UFC with 1 win TKO 1 win UD and 1 sub loss. This really comes down to who has the better strikes and toughest chin, striking wise it is paper thin, but with Njokuani having been KOed once before I am siding with the under dog again in Makdessi..Makdessi to win @ 5/4
Eddie Alvarez vs Shinya Aoki
I am not sure whther this is an over sight by Paddy Power but most MMA sites have Aoki as slight favourite for this fight, Aoki has already beaten Alvarez before via a heelhook in 1min 32 seconds. Aoki has a 7 fight win streak with some brutal subnmission wins, whilst Alvarez had also won seven before his shock submission loss to unbeaten Michael Chandler. This again becomes a battle of the stand up against the battle of the ground master, and for me Aoki warrants a bet at value oddsAoki to win @ 7/4 now 2/1 for the win
Fight of the night award could go to several of these on paper, however value could lie with Stephen Thompson vs Matt Brown @ 17/2 which could be an all out war.
Sub Of the nightagain several contenders, but my money would be on Rory Macdonald,or if the odds are too cramped, Mac Danzig.
KO of the night again depending on prices my selections are down to John Makdessi and Ben Rothwell as sporting bets
Last edited by tattflash on Fri Apr 20, 2012 4:39 pm; edited 3 times in total
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