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Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject: Betking's OLBG vs the bookies 08/09 thread
Week 1 = £100
Am bypassing the overs/unders and "other" markets just because its the first weekend of the season. I dont see any value AH picks, so its a straight 1X2 market bet for me.....
Villa were good last season, and have been solid in pre-season. The Barry saga has not impacted the team, and Barry and in particular Ashley Young have been playing well. Carew is always a danger, and is expected to play, and Ive not even mentioned Agbonlahor yet.
City went down at home in the UEFA Cup in midweek, and come here missing key players again. Richard Dunne was a rock for them in defence last season, but hes suspended. £19m man Jo is at the Olympics, while Benjani and Vassell are injured. They do have the ever-dangerous Petrov though, but City dont have anyone to get on the end of his crosses.
Villa should hit the ground running here, while the misery around the blue half of Manchester looks set to continue.
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Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject:
So then, onto week 2.......
1X2
Well Arsenal @ 1.62 away to Fulham looks worthy of consideration, but I'm not sure about Arsenal's injuries, so will likely leave this, although I do think its too big. Elsewhere I fancy Blackburn to edge out Hull, they looked good last week, but I'm not backing my own team, and certainly not at 1.62 at this early stage in the season. For me the bet in this section has to be Aston Villa to win away at Stoke @ 1.75 Villa have looked very good so far, their star quartet will always create chances, and playing a team that lost 3-1 at Bolton, have to be fancied.
Ive nothing to add much that hasnt been said above. The games I have not mentioned are tricky to call, so for that reason I will stick with the Villa game. Villa -0.75 @ 2.00 is appealing, I can see Villa winning by a couple so this to me is the best AH bet in the Premier League this weekend.
Over/Under
I dont like over/under bets early on, they're hard to call with any certainty. The only one that stands out to me is over 2,5 goals in the Blackburn/Hull game @ 2.10 Blackburn are still a threat going forward, and Hull's defence is not that strong. However with Rover's tendency to give away soft goals (plus having Robinson in goal), Hull will likely score. So adds against for at least 3 goals seems like good value.
Other bets
Like last week, its too early for me to consider any bets in this section, so I will bypass discussing any.
Final choice of bet will be up shortly. _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject:
Well I've decided to take Aston Villa -0.75 on the AH @ 2.00.
I was close between this and the straight Villa win, but ultimately the likelihood of at least a 2 goal win coupled with the slightly better price, edged me towards this one.
Week 1 balance £183
Week 2 topup £100
New current balance £283
Week 2 bet - Aston Villa -0.75 on the AH @ 2.00
Stake £100
Updated balance £183 _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject:
Week 3 shortlist.......
1X2
Not a lot stands out this week, but a couple that stand out...
Everton @ 2.22 to beat Portsmouth. Pompey have looked disjointed, and have been poor so far. Admittedly Everton have been outplayed in both their games so far, but they've still scored 4 goals in those 2 games, whereas Pompey have rarely looked like scoring. This would be a very risky bet to take though, all things considered.
MIddlesbrough @ 1.64 to beat Stoke. Lets wait and see how many people jump on the Stoke bandwagon after they beat Villa last week. The truth is, Villa were awful, yet Stoke still let the lead slip twice, and still needed an injury time goal to win. They visit a Boro side who have been very impressive so far, undeservedly going down 2-1 at Anfield last weekend. Southgate's young team looks promising, and with the firepower at their disposal, should edge out Stoke.
Chelsea at 1.43 to beat Spurs. Chelsea beat a poor Pompey, then struggled to get past Wigan away. Spurs lost to Boro, then to Sunderland, and both times have been poor. Whether the Berbatov situation is affecting them is irrelevant, they've been awful and currently they have great players, but no team. With home advantage Chelsea should have more than enough to get past Spurs.
Blackburn +0.25 @ 1.77 vs West Ham. Think Blackburn have shown so far they have more than enough to get at least a draw from this match, strong going forward, but defensive frailties may cost them a win.
Over/Under
Chelsea/Spurs over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 - I mentioned Spurs poorness abve, and if Chelsea hit top form, I can see them scoring a few here.
Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Villa are always dangerous, Carew, Young, Barry and Agbonlahor are very lively, and Liverpool have just come through 120 minutes in the Champions League qualifier, and have no Steven Gerrard. Liverpool are still not quite right at the back, and I wouldnt be surprised if we have a few goals here, maybe 2-2 or 3-2 either way.
West Ham/Blackburn over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 - West Ham's defence was never strong last season, and its not been strengthened. They can still score, with Dean Ashton the main threat. Blackburn have lost Brad Freidel, and his replacement Paul Robinson means theyre always likely to concede ( ), but with Santa Cruz, Roberts, McCarthy, Pedersen etc, they will always create chances. Seems good value to go for overs.
Other bets
Only one bet stands out here, and thats Chelsea to be leading 1-0 at half time @ 3.75 - I fancy Chelsea to win, and be ahead at half time. I can see a tight first half with Chelsea getting ahead, then pulling away in the second half. _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject:
I'm taking the Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 bet, detailed above. Think its a great price, good value, with a strong chance of coming in. Going for a bigger stake this week, as its a good value bet, and would be a nice boost to the bank.
So 3 weeks in a row its a Villa game I'm betting on!
Balance carried forward from week 2 = £183
Week 3 topup = £100
Current bank = £283
Week 3 bet - Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Stake £183 (potential return £387.96, potential profit = £204.96)
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Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:15 am Post subject:
Good luck with this one mate, I think you have chosen the best bet for this game, if I was a gambling man I would go for 2-1 Villa, but then again I am a little one sided in my views
As an aside to this game, Barry to score would be poetic justice _________________ Tweeting http://twitter.com/OnlineTrader1
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Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:09 am Post subject:
Barry to score a 94th minute winner would be so ironic.......it just has to happen! _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:39 pm Post subject:
Maybe I should stop betting on Villa games. Overs? Not even close
Week 3 result
Week 3 topup £100
Stake £183
Bet - Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Result - LOSE Finished 0-0!
Loss -£183
New Bank £100
SR 1/3
SR% 33.3%
LSP -1.17
Bank after week 3 £100 _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:10 pm Post subject:
I was going to skip this week, as Internationals are never easy, but I found a few worthy of consideration. Only short writeups though as I'm pushed for time.
1X2
Only one that stands out is Romania @ 1.36 to beat Lithuania. Romania are a very good team, still vastly under-rated, and despite this being a very short price, is still bigger than it should be.
Continuing the above theme, Romania look very good bets, but the price is too short to make it worthwhile. However, on the AH, Romania can be backed 1.25 @ 1.84 which has much more appeal. A 2 goal win brings home the whole win, but if Romania only struggle to a one goal win, then half the stake is returned.
Over/under
Staying with the Romania/Lithuania match (noticing a theme here yet?), over 2.5 goals is 1.88, and while I think this game should easily cover the 3 goals needed, I dont like taking over/under bets on internationals, as you never know how the players will react to situations.
Others
Romania HT/FT is 1.92, and this is very tempting. I cant see Lithuania holding them out for 45 minutes, but a slow starting Romania side could shoot this bet down.
Also I like the look of Jermain Defoe to score first for England, @ 4.6 For me hes looked the most lively, and the most dangerous forward in England's recent games, and if he starts (surely he will?) then this looks a very nice price. _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
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Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:16 pm Post subject:
Ive narrowed it down to Romania -1.25 @ 1.84 and Jermain Defoe to score first @ 4.60 Both of these bets seem strong, but with a little luck required for Defoe, I'm siding with Romania.
Balance carried forward from week 3 = £100
Week 3 topup = £100
Current bank = £200
Week 4 bet - Romania -1.25 vs Lithuania @ 1.84
Stake £100 (potential return £184, potential profit = £84) _________________ Theo Walcott will score at least 20 in all competitions this season.
Michelle Larcher de Brito - World Number One 2012 (c)2008
2010 #2 LSP Football Blogger
2010 Last 6 months #1 LSP Tennis blogger
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), but with Santa Cruz, Roberts, McCarthy, Pedersen etc, they will always create chances. Seems good value to go for overs.
I would go for 2-1 Villa, but then again I am a little one sided in my views 
