Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:18 pm Post subject: Saturday 29th December - Football Selections
Championship Betting Preview
My bet of the week comes in the game at Ashton Gate. Peterborough may well be a team in the relegation zone, but they are a team that are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and that is a key ingredient for picking out surprise results. Having said that beating Bristol City at the moment wont come as much of a surprise given that they are now bottom with just two wins at home in the championship so far this season. One could argue that Bristol City may well be more rested following their boxing day fixture against Watford being called off due to a waterlogged pitch, but I would favour the momentum built up by the Posh now that they have three wins on the trot including two away from home.
Recommended bet – Peterborough to win @ 3.0
Burnley have a very solid home record this season with just two defeats on their own patch in the league. They have Charlie Austin who continues to get the goals, scoring the first in their comfortable 2-0 boxing day win against Derby. Leicester were lucky to have come away from their game against Hull with a point and have been struggling of late, particularly on the road. They have just one away win in two months and that came at (a then out of form) Sheffield Wednesday. In addition, given that Leicester have not scored in their last three matches I would have made Burnley favourites in this one.
Recommended bet – Burnley to win @ 3.3
Watford to beat Brighton at 3.8 is a massive price in the days evening kick off. Watford will be well rested after their Boxing day game was called of and have six wins and only one defeat in their last ten matches. They have more league away wins this season than Brighton have home wins. If you then factor in that Brighton have won just one of their last six and that was against now bottom club Bristol City, I am happy to take these odds all day long.
Recommended bet – Watford to win @ 3.8
Perhaps all this Sheffield Wednesday side needed was the confidence of getting a win to break their long losing streak as they now have three wins in a row and have not conceded a goal in any of them. Huddersfield after a promising start to the season have now only picked up four points in their last eight games, meaning this is an excellent chance for the owls to make it four from four.
Recommended bet – Sheffield Wednesday to win @ 3.2
Both Bolton and Birmingham have been struggling for form recently, with Bolton only winning two of their last ten, and Birmingham three. These sides are level on points on the table and in a league like this where anybody can beat anybody on their day I see plenty of value in taking the away side at odds of 4.2.
Recommended bet – Birmingham to win @ 4.2
To round up some of the remaining games, Wolves now have just three wins from their last fourteen games, whereas Ipswich’s boxing day victory away at Charlton made it four wins in six for them. Derby are a decent side whose defeats over the last couple of months have all come against decent sides and so I fancy them to beat Charlton, a team in free fall at the moment. And finally I feel at the odds on offer Millwall are a point or so long to get something from their game at Cardiff, despite the league leaders excellent home record.
Recommended bets – Small stakes win singles on Ispwich @ 3.6, Derby @ 2.9 and Millwall @ 5.
Posh are making a fight of this league, and have some impressive wins under their belt, including Bolton at home and Cardiff away. They've won 4 of 12 away, and while they've lost 7, they've scored 14 in 12 away and 33 on the season. This match does see the league's two worst defences, so expect goals, Bristol City themselves have scored 33 but allowed two more than Posh with 46.
Posh have won their last 3, while City have struggled all year long, with 1 win in 5. I feel Posh have the conhesion and the road form to give this a go at very good odds. City have lost 5 of their last 6 at home too, so don't have any confidence in front of their fans.
Fleetwood Town look value at home to a York team who are missing top scorer Ashley Chambers. York lost away 3-0 on boxing day whilst Fleetwood beat Morecambe 1-0. Fleetwood are a better team and can make it back to back wins against an under strength York team who will struggle to score with their main striker injured.
Reading have been poor recently, even if they did end their seven game losing run with a draw against Swansea they have now failed to score in four of their last five matches. West Ham are better than their recent results suggest. On the face of it they have lost four of their last six, but then if you consider they were against spurs, manchester united, everton and Liverpool, it tells more of the story. The other two games were a win against chelsea and a solid draw against west brom. In addition, the fact that Carlton Cole is available after his red card against Everton was rescinded is a massive boost for the hammers.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:30 am Post subject: Some value for Saturday
Despite losing 5 of their last 6 I think Wigan are a decent bet at Aston Villa. Their defeats have been close calls, and reports suggest they are playing OK. What they need is to play a team in total disarray and low on confidence, and Villa fit that bill perfectly. Conceding 12 and scoring none in your last 2 games cannot do anyone's confidence any good, they have a high list of injuries and might well be there for the taking again. Wigan have lost only once in 7 visits to Villa Park and with 11/5 available, I think that represents value.
In the Blue Square take a look at Kidderminster away at Forest Green. The Harriers have won their last 7 games, conceding only 4 goals in the process. The hosts have no wins in their last 3, losing their last 2. This is a close call as both side are very evenly matched, but current form may just tip the scales towards the Harriers. With 2/1 available this is another value bet.
Completing todays Trixie is Southend away at Burton. The Shrimpers are unbeaten in 14 games in all competitions and scored an excellent 3-0 win away at Dagenham on boxing Day. Burton are doing OK, but only have 2 wins in their last 6, and with 7/5 for the away win, I'll take that.
Doncaster are definitely worth a look in this game. They are having an excellent season and are three points off top spot with a game in hand. They have been excellent on the road with eight wins and just a single defeat. Preston are struggling and are drawing far to many games and have just one win in their last ten matches.
You can get 3.75 on a Donny win or back them on the handicap (+0.25) @ 2.04. These odds are far too big on current form.
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