I tend to look for teams which have had a poor finish to the season. Using this technique I predicted Bolton to go down last season and Birmingham to go down the season before. Unfortunately I wasn't old enough to bet on them. Teams that fall into that category might be Spurs or Stoke. However, as a Stoke fan, I reckon we'll actually improve on our points total. With Spurs I suppose it depends on whether you feel AVB will be a hit. From a points tally perspective you could look at sides who overperformed last season and whose predicted points tally might be over-inflated as a result. Norwich and Swansea have had managerial changes and could end up in the bottom six. West Brom lost hodgson and I'm not sure I really rate Steve Clarke, and this is his first job as a no. 1 so we'll see how he goes. I reckon a lot of West Brom's success was down to hodgson and I don't really rate Odemwinge. I would also consider Newcastle depending on what the set points total is. They surely can't repeat last season and should finish between 8th and 12th. I wouldn't expect a top 4 finish for Liverpool, although they should expect a slightly better finish under Rodgers. Of the promoted teams I expect west ham to stay up and I really rate big fat sam. Southampton should stay up and I reckon reading will go down, although the chairman is spending. Overall I would say Qpr should improve on their 37 point tally while Newcastle surely can't perfrom so well. Haven't looked at the markets, just a few thoughts.
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