Racing Santander, fresh from their impressive and unexpected win in Pamplona against Osasuna, take on Getafe in a bid to go six games unbeaten under new coach Juanjo Gonzalez. The win against Osasuna came as a big surprise to most and highlighted the fact that this team are now rejuvenated since the arrival of their new manager and confidence will be at a high for the visit of Getafe.
The away side themselves have done well of late and are unbeaten in four games. However, they have drawn their last two away games and typically are a side which pick up the majority of their points at home. In their last five away games they have just one win, one draw and three defeats. In the last three games involving these two sides there have been just two goals.
Racing Santander have a very good defensive record at home and have only conceded five times in nine games. Unfortunately for them, they have only scored five, but this has not stopped them from winning three and drawing four of their nine home games so far this season.
I expect this game to have minimal goals and although I think the draw is a very likely option, I'm going to side with the home side to nick it by the odd goal. I think the scoreline of 1-0 is the likeliest as games involving Racing Santander at home tend to have very few goals and the last thing we can expect to see would be a goalfest.
Selections:
Racing Santander 8/5 @ VC
Under 2.5 goals 4/7 @ Various
HT/FT Draw/Racing Santander 5 @ Various
Real Sociedad scored an impressive three points against Valencia at the Mestalla last Saturday when they came back to Basque Country with a 0-1 win. They face Atletico Madrid who are still without an away win from eight attempts so far this season. Confidence will be high with the home side and they will want to inflict more misery on Atletico who just can't recreate their home form when on the road.
Real Sociedad historically have a good record against Atletico Madrid having won 11 of the last 14 top flight games at the Anoeta. They lost 2-4 last season despite winning 1-0 for 70 minutes of the game and this ended a run of seven straight defeats for the away side. It doesn't look a good omen that they are struggling this season with only two points and five goals.
Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone will have a tough task on his hands here to turn it around and win at the Anoeta for a second season on the spin. Radamel Falcao has scored eleven times for his side this season but none of these have come on the road. He will need to start scoring soon if Atletico are to face yet another season of under achievement.
I think the odds on offer for the home side are fantastic at 21/10. With Atletico in dire straits away from home and Real Sociedad high on confidence after coming away from Valencia with the win last weekend, I think they will push all the way and get revenge for last season's defeat. There seems to be a lot of goals involving games between these two sides and there have been 20 goals in the last meetings here. In the last three meetings there have been a total of 13 goals.
Selections:
Real Sociedad 21/10 @ Various
Over 2.5 goals 22/19 @ 188Bet _________________ Check out my Spanish La Liga Blog
Osasuna hope to build on the solid 1-1 draw with Valencia in the last round. The side from Pamplona suffered their first home defeat of the season in the game against Racing Santander who have improved a great deal since their new manager arrived at the helm. The 0-2 defeat was a shock one, even though Osasuna aren't seen as one of the regulars who qualify for Europe. However, it would have given hope to travelling Atletico Madrid who have endured their own issues, especially on the road this term. Osasuna were that time round and will want to give another good performance to push themselves up the league.
Atletico Madrid picked up an excellent 0-4 win at Real Sociedad last weekend and the result was not typical of a side who had failed to pick up a single win in eight previous attempts. The arrival of Diego Simeone has galvanised the side somewhat and they will want to push on and try to obtain a decent placing come the end of the season. Unfortunately for them, their problems won't go away overnight and Osasuna remain solid when playing at the Reyno de Navarra. They will need to be at their best to win again tonight and the home side don't ever give much away.
This fixture last season ended in a 2-3 win for the away side but it is fair to say that circumstances were different. However, Atletico Madrid have only won here twice in the last ten league and cup meetings and there has only been one draw in that time. The odds for the home win are fair but I think that an improving Atletico are capable of a draw here. Osasuna have drawn four times at home and the 1-1 draw against Valencia shows that they are capable of shutting out the bigger teams.
I don't often tip the draw in this league but I feel that tonight the game will be too close to call. The home side as previously mentioned, are solid at home but the away side have run up some good form of late. I think the result will be close either way but there won't be much between the sides and this is why I feel the draw is the safest outcome. I won't tip on goals as there were five here last season and three the season before, but Osasuna's home matches usually end under 2.5.
The Madrid derby will take place this evening in likely sub-zero temperatures and playing away from home against Getafe at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez hasn't come without its difficulties in the past few seasons. Madrid's 2nd favourite team are playing well and have taken 20 of their last 30 points on offer. Stopping them at home tonight could prove tricky and when you throw the fact that they defeated Barcelona 1-0 here earlier in the season into the equation you can see that Los Blancos won't have it so easy this evening.
Real Madrid come into this game from a tough fought 3-1 win over Real Zaragoza but have a much harder tie here in my opinion. Firstly, it is a derby game, secondly, they are away from home and thirdly, Getafe are one of the form teams in La Liga at present and as well as sub-zero temperatures that will likely affect both sides, Jose Mourinho has never beaten Luís García at Getafe. There are of course, a lot of goals in the recent encounters with the last three scorelines being 2-3, 2-4 and 3-1.
I expect Real Madrid to not have it their own way this evening and believe that betting on them at odds of around 1/3-1/2 are not good value. They will be without several key players including Angel Di Maria, Sami Khedira, Ricardo Carvalho, Hamit Altintop and Marcelo. Xabi Alonso is also doubtful and his influence will be missed if he doesn't make the team sheet. Getafe have Daniel Güiza back at the club after several years and the Spanish striker has a good record in Spain. In 98 appearances for Getafe and Mallorca from 2005-2008, he has netted 47 times and scored in his last game. He will be one of the danger men for the home side.
I don't think this game will be easy for either side but fancy Real Madrid to slip up here and only leave with a point at maximum. I think the goals will flow but from both sides and I can see at least two goals for each team due to the attacking nature of both managers. This game always makes for interesting viewing and I feel that goals will be the easiest call to make in this fixture.
Selections:
Getafe + 1 13/9 @ 188Bet
Over 3.5 goals 52/35 @ 32 Red
Daniel Güiza AGS 10/3 @ Various
BTTS 4/5 @ Bet365 _________________ Check out my Spanish La Liga Blog
Malaga won this fixture 4-0 on the opening day of the season but tonight's game will be a much different encounter as Granada, fresh from their excellent 1-2 win at Real Betis, can get another win here at Los Cármenes as Malaga are not so convincing away from La Rosaleda and are set to play without some key figures in the side. Ruud van Nistelrooy, Julio Baptista and Joaquin are expected to sit out this fixture.
Granada appointed a new manager Abel Resino following a run of three consecutive defeats and the new manager syndrome kicked in and they came away from Betis with all three points. Ahead of a home crowd, the expectations will be on the players and the manager to deliver and they have the integrity to achieve another good result. This will be an extremely tricky tie and no matter what the stats say, Malaga have some way to go until they are as good as many people have them down for.
Malaga lost their last away game at relegation threatened Sporting Gijon by a 2-1 scoreline and I think the same scoreline could be on the cards this evening. They have just one win from their last eight league games and they have lost their last three away games in the league. As well as the 2-1 defeat to Sporting, they also lost at Real Sociedad 3-2 and Valencia 2-0. They have only scored eight goals away from home and will face a stiff defence tonight so getting goals may be hard to come by.
I think the 11/5 on offer at BWin for the home win is good value and Malaga's odds of 29/20 don't really offer good value in my opinion. With a new manager at the helm, I will choose not to bet on goals as new managers can bring new approaches and we may find that Granada's tendency to be involved in games under 2.5 may change drastically. It will be a tight affair but for me Granada can win this game.
Sevilla sacked their manager Marcelino on Monday following a 1-2 defeat at home to struggling Villarreal. Former Getafe manager Michel has been appointed until the end of the season and has been given the daunting task of trying to qualify for the Champions League. At the time of writing, 4th place would look the very best that they could achieve as they sit on 26 points - just six behind 4th placed Levante, but a staggering 16 behind Valencia. With just 16 games remaining, it may be a scrap to 4th place and the qualifying rounds for Michel and the strugglers from Seville.
Real Sociedad have had a below average season by their standards, sitting just one point above the relegation zone in 17th place, the pressure will be on them to get something from this game and as they sit just two points behind Sevilla, they could overtake them in the standings with all three points. However, the boost that a new manager brings to a club may be the key factor in this meeting as Sevilla will be hard to beat and the timing couldn't have come at a worse time for the Basque side.
Recent head to head between these two sides show that there have been a glut of goals. In the last three meetings at the Anoeta, there have been 12 goals. Last season the score ended 2-3 and the scores before this, Sevilla also won 1-3 and 1-2 so the omens are good for another Sevilla win. Real Sociedad have been very inconsistent of late and have suffered differing fortunes on a game to game basis. They went to Valencia and came away with a 0-1 victory but then followed this up a week later by being thrashed 0-4 at home by, at the time, a winless Atletico Madrid side. They then went goal crazy with a 5-1 capitulation of Sporting Gijon and then lost a credible 2-1 at Barcelona.
I feel that the new manager syndrome will strike again and I am satisfied that the visitors have a great chance of obtaining all three points. With three successive wins away to Real Sociedad, Sevilla can make it four and get Michel's managerial career off to a good start. With there being a recent history of goals, I am also tipping over 2.5 goals and both teams to score as this has been cleared in all of the last three meetings including four of the last five at Real Sociedad.
Real Zaragoza obtained a shock win away at Espanyol in the last round by a 1-2 scoreline and this was much against the run of form as the Catalans have been impressive of late. Now back at home for the visit of Real Betis, the hosts will want to make it two wins from two against a poor travelling Real Betis side who continue to slide further down the league table. Real Zaragoza are still ten points adrift at the foot of the table but will know that the games are running out fast and tonight is an opportunity they really need to take if they are to avoid going down at the end of the season.
Real Betis started the season in exceptional form - winning their first four games and topping the table, but it came to a big surprise to most that they then lost nine of their next ten games, including eight in a row and only managing to scrape a 0-0 draw at home to Malaga. They eventually ended their winless run in the final game before the winter break in the 2-1 victory against Valencia. However, they have only won two of their six games in 2012 and have lost three, including at home 1-2 to Granada. They did win their last game 2-1 at home to Athletic Bilbao but predominately are a side who struggle for consistency and will be hoping to salvage their season with a good run from now on.
The odds are fairly well balanced for this game with the best odds for the home win being 31/18, the draw is priced at 23/10 and the away win is 17/10. This is a very close game to call and I think the odds reflect this. However, given that Real Zaragoza are coming into this game with a win and will have the home support, I think they can nick this over a Real Betis side who have lost eight of their eleven away games. I have seen the home side a couple of occasions this season and they have been unlucky at times. They do have the poorest home record in the division but have only conceded 15 times in ten games which isn't as bad as it could be given Real Madrid and Malaga have conceded 15 and Sevilla have conceded 16 times at home. Plus six of these 15 goals came in the opening day drubbing 0-6 at home to Real Madrid.
I don't think there will be more than a goal to seperate both sides in this game but I'm going to go with the home side. It's around this time of the season that the relegation threatened sides start to improve as the fear of relegation starts to appear on the horizon. Real Zaragoza need the victory more than Real Betis and there is a lot in the press about how the players are really up for winning this game tonight. Real Betis look like they are in a right mess and I feel that with home advantage, the home side can scrape a narrow victory.
Both these sides need points and although Getafe aren't in immediate danger of the drop zone, they could easily get sucked in so cannot rest on their laurels for this game. Villarreal are in what can only be described as a very unusual season. In previous years this has been one of the most feared sides outside the current top three but this year they lie in 17th place and only three points ahead of the drop zone. A win could take them to within four points of the top half.
At home this season they have only lost once and it has been their terrible away form that has been the major let down of their season. Only six points and goals accrued away from home this season is relegation form at it's best and they will need to keep El Madrigal as their main base for the majority of points. They face a Getafe side who also struggle for points away from home but have a slightly better record than their opponents with twelve points and with fourteen goals from thirteen games they do pose a goal threat, albeit a fairly average one.
In the last five games in La Liga, it is Getafe who have accumulated the least amount of points with just two draws to their name and Villarreal have a much healthier record with seven points from their last fifteen on offer. Villarreal were last beaten at home in the league on 23rd October against Levante which ended in a 0-3 victory to the local neighbours and although the Yellow Submarine have lost three times at El Madrigal since then, they have been Champions League defeats to Manchester City and Napoli and the 0-2 shock in the Copa Del Rey to Mirandes. In their last five home games they have held Barcelona and Valencia and have recorded wins against Sporting Gijon and Granada.
I would class Getafe's form as poor at the moment and with Villarreal getting stronger over the course of the season, the odds of evens must be classed as a value bet. Giuseppe Rossi is still injured but Nilmar is back in the fold and ready to score once more for his side. Villarreal have won six of the last seven meetings here in the league and a 3-3 draw is the only game in which points have been dropped. In my opinion, the home side should be around the 1.7-1.8 mark for this game but they have only been leading at HT in one of these games so I think that draw/Villarreal is a good shout also.
Selections:
Villarreal CF evens @ Various
HT/FT Draw/Villarreal 4 @ various _________________ Check out my Spanish La Liga Blog
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