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Correct Score Betting System - Football
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Mambo
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:27 am     Post subject: Correct Score Betting System - Football Reply with quote

Hi chaps,

I've read an article on a correct score betting system which uses the possion distribution theory in order to make a long-term profit. The only problem with this system that i can see is that it is extremely volitile.

Can you some of you experienced betting chappies have a look at the below article and let me know your views on the system and if it is worth trialing?

Thanks guys Win

http://www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk/football/masterclass/105/correct_score_betting.html
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Betfairalfie
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:42 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

I had read that before in my quest to find an angle on footie betting that actually works. My first thoughts were;

- correct score is a high margin market unless you really shop around.
- at the safety factor built in I just wonder how many bets would be made and how many would be avoided
- its a very volatile market in that its hard enough to predict who will win without having the further complication of having to get the score exactly right!
- personally I hate roller coaster rides. I'd rather be more cautious and win less money more frequently.


In the last paragraph its summed up nicley (excuse the pun);

Quote:
Chart 2 shows how much of a roller coaster ride it is, as it details my profit and loss in terms of points (a 5-1 win = five points) over a 38-week period. You can see how you have fantastic weeks where you look like a genius, sandwiched in between plenty of costly weeks. Just console yourself that in the long run you'll come out on top - providing you've got your sums right.


You could probably smooth it out by having lots of bookie accounts (with opening bonuses) and dutching say 2 or 3 scores per match. But I'd still want to run it for more than one season before declaring it a long-term winner.

Is it worth trialling? Yes of course. We may be discarding the system lightly but I suspect the bookie margins & exchange commission kill it.
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The Shark
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:53 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an idea which might help correct score punters - take advantage of bookies offers, especially when there is a big match.

Lets assume

Bookie 1 refunds losing correct score bets if the match finishes 0-0
Bookie 2 refunds losing correct score bets if player A is sent off
Bookie 3 refunds losing correct score bets if there is a goal in injury time
Bookie 4 refunds losing correct score bets if there is a penalty

All these offers are regularly available. Check out our promos page here http://www.olbg.com/promotions.php

So say you fancy it to be a tight game - you could spread some bets around on 1-0 either way, no goalscorer, 1-1 etc

If player A is sent off in the 90th minute when conceding a penalty which is converted... not only could one of your correct scores win but you'll be refunded on several

Ok so its an extreme example - but definately worth placing correct score bets with bookies who run these offers if the odds are ok. You wont always get a refund but if you get a few over the course of the season it could help swing the %s in your favour.

If that penalty was a "dodgy decesion" then Bluesquare would also have refunded any losing bets as a result of it! - http://www.olbg.com/free_2372.php
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Mambo
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 1:31 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the feedback guys, really useful.

Think i will trial it on OLBG from Jan to May to get a feel for the system and see how it performs.

I've also heard of a system that suggest that the draw should be backed every time the Asian Handicap read 0 (zero) between two teams? This again is also supposed to make a profit in the long-term? Has anybody else heard of this system before and know of its success rate?

Thanks again Smile
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:07 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds similar - in that you are just using bookies knowledge + market forces to predict connected events.

If a spread betting company has set the goals market in a certain way or a bookie set the Asian Handicap in a certain way - then its likely the correct score/draw odds will reflect that as well.

So the draw where the Asian Handicap is 0 willl be much shorter than where its 0.75 or 1.5 etc.

Probably a helpfull indicator of a tight match for sure - but so would be looking at the outright draw odds I expect.

Another one - which I'm not sure works anymore but is founded on decent principles is the football favourite bias... where a team is at short odds - think it used to be below 1.25 that it worked - the odds will be better than the teams chances of winning.

This was based on bookies being unable to attract enough money at short odds, so having to offer longer odds to try and attract bets.

Apparantly you could back at level stakes and make a profit - this though was before exchanges so not sure if its the same now. Anyway - another system to try out!
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JimmyTheChin
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Post Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:39 pm     Post subject: Stats and correct score betting Reply with quote

I don't really have the patience for using statistic model myself. I'd rather just research form and look at past results. Some kind of ratings system for goals and corners might help with this.

There are a copy of okay under / over betting techniques discussed over on Punter Profits which could possible be applied to correct score betting as well.

After trying various methods before, like multiples, or arbitrage betting on goals i don't mind going back to the drawing board!
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Post Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:55 pm     Post subject: Correct score betting system Reply with quote

I just noticed how old this thread is, dow! Just in case anyone ambles across these posts, I thought I'd add some more info.

As the others have said it looks like most correct score betting systems seem to be for widows and orphans.... not for people who want low blood pressure.

I've been hunting for a decent alternative. Correct score Lay betting techniques might be worth a look. The trouble with any Lay betting system is that the odds tend to be quite long so there needs to be loads of winning bets and very few loosing ones. More than one loosing bet in any 20 or so winning bets just wipes out the bank. I've bee reading some interesting blogs which have been testing correct score betting methods. Here's a view of what I've been reading http://www.zimbio.com/member/IFindSites/articles
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