Brains Trust Discussion thread - BT please read and discuss

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This is for the BT members, because I need your input on what we could do come the play-offs.

One thing we've done surprisingly well since we started is to avoid many conflicting picks. Whether that's because some of you don't post a pick that goes against someone else's or not, I'm not sure, but there's not been too many. However, come the play-offs when there's only a few matches each weekend, working down to the finals where it's a single match per night, it's much more likely we'll have opposing picks.

Initially, my intention was to stop once the regular season ended, but if there's a way to continue then I think we should consider it. There's a few option, and if anyone has any others I'd like to hear them.

We could:

a) Simply post as we normally have, and let readers decide if and who they want to follow.

b) Either post in agreement with what has previously been posted, or pick something else if you have an opposing pick.

c) Post privately to me and I would post only picks that were in agreement (bear in mind that a popular pick isn't likely to win - the MPP picks so far run at a loss).

d) Spilt us up into groups and each group covers one match only. Groups agree what to pick and one person posts.

Any other ideas? Confused

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gronniceguy · Group 2 Class Joined: 15 Aug 2011 Posts: 244

Personally i think you need to continue running it AS IS.... peopel can choose whom they want to follow or whos picks they value the most.
Is you only post consensus picks you might actually miss out ont he picks that have the most value.

Also working in a group is not going to work, because if my stats tell em all about the Green Bay-Jags game i dont care too much being in a group that has to do some Bears-Eagles game...

lazarus76 · Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:07 pm Post subject:

At the end of the day tipping in any sport is all about opinion, and peoples opinion will differ, if you have got a strong opinion backed up with sound reasoning, whether it's a 20/1 shot or odds on that doesn't matter, keep it as it is and then the readers can decide for themselves.
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Chipmonkadidooda · Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:55 pm Post subject:

Bookie,

I can see why you have the dilemna as you are trying to keep the thread alive and keep the format of a running LSP, but really you should stop runing the cumulative LSP when the play-offs start as it'll not see profit with the eventuality of conflicting picks.

People tend to follow certain bloggers and will do so through their individual posts devoid of the BT. The purpose of the BT is to gather the concensus.

I say continue it as it is now and let people pick what they want. If you get conflicting picks on game outcomes you'll have to trade them off and discount them. If you get 3 of us tipping Green Bay for instance and one of us tipping their opponents then take the consensus. You'll have to forget the LSP though. Just count the votes. The prop bets can remain as they are now too.

In failing that with there being only a few games a week everyone could give their vote to the outcome of the 3 game bets (outright, spread and total points) They don't have to give a big write up unless tey wish, but at least then you can get a consensus which would then give us a feeling for how strong the feeling is.

e.g.

49ers (+6.5) @ Packers (-6.5)
Total Points 46.5

Outright - 2 votes 49ers, 8 votes GB = (80% confidence)
Spread - 4 votes 49ers, 6 votes GB = (60% confidence)
Points - 1 vote under, 9 votes GB = (90% confidence)

Just a thought!
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ebookconverter · Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:57 pm Post subject:

Yeah, the LSP was definitely going to be out anyway. To be honest, my own preference would be for each to list picks as normal, but if that's all then it's nothing different from the weekly discussion thread, and there'd be no point in doing both.

However, Chip's idea of a confidence summarising would work and that would justify the BT thread for the play-offs. However, I would like to stress that we all do post in the weekly discussion thread as well, to allow any response/discussion.

Any other comments/ideas?
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The NFL Brains Trust
Runner-Up Inaugural OLBG Forum NFL Fantasy League
--Remember - the only guarantee in betting is that you'll bet losers. Be disciplined.

Hogsback · Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:30 pm Post subject:

I think we could all show who we think will win each game even without a write up. Do write ups for the one's we really fancy and give the game and perhaps have Chips helmets underneath which team we think will win, like the expert's picks are:

eg.

Green Bay Packers
(Smoggyfever helmet) (ebookconverter helmet)
v

New York Giants
(Hogsback helmet) (Lazarus76 helemt)

Chipmonkadidooda · Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:41 pm Post subject:

Hmmm, liking it Hoggy. Bit like the NCAAF 'pickem' page on rivals(yahoo) if any of you have seen it. Win

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SmoggyFever · Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:06 pm Post subject:

I like that Hogs, same idea as http://www.nfluk.com/expert-picks

Good one Win

ebookconverter · Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:04 pm Post subject:

Good thinking guys, especially Hogsback Win

Here's what we'll do come the play-offs:

Each BT member will be asked to make a single post for each play-off match. The post will contain:

1) Their outright pick for the match
2) Their handicap/spread pick on the match
3) Their over/under total points pick on the match
4) Their own "best-bet" pick(s) from the match (if they have any) with reasoning.

#'s 1-3 don't need reasoning, but can appear also in #4 with reasoning if a best bet.

I can compile all the data from 1-3 to make a "BT Confidence" percentage, and of course the best bets will appear as they usually have been.

If there's a helmet image I can use that too. Do all the BT have helmets, are they all part of SuperbOLBG too?

Chip, can I have access to the locations of those images? If not, no worries.
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The NFL Brains Trust
Runner-Up Inaugural OLBG Forum NFL Fantasy League
--Remember - the only guarantee in betting is that you'll bet losers. Be disciplined.

SmoggyFever · Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:59 pm Post subject:

If OLBG had awards, Chip and Ebook would be in line to sweep them all Win

Great work guys

ebookconverter · Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:57 pm Post subject:

Nah, Chip does WAY more than I do. He's been awesome in the forum. But I will admit that it was his work, and the support he gets from all the participants, that spurred me into doing the BT. Nothing like this, or SuperbOLBG or the handicap challenge, can ever work fully without the weekly input from everyone Win

Now, while I have everyone's attention, what's your opinions on a BT-style thread for the NCAAF. I personally know very little about college football although it's something I want to take a greater interest in. It might not therefore be right for me to run a NCAAF BT thread but I'd do it if you wanted me to and there was enough people interested. It would only take about five or six I reckon.
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The NFL Brains Trust
Runner-Up Inaugural OLBG Forum NFL Fantasy League
--Remember - the only guarantee in betting is that you'll bet losers. Be disciplined.

SmoggyFever · Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:25 pm Post subject:

I'd be in Ebook, i'm really trying to get a grasp on it from next season and been watching as much as possible this year