NFL Week 13 Selections and Discussion

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ruxpin1 · Classic Winner Joined: 27 Sep 2011 Posts: 991

Thanks for that ebookconverter

The So called "Battle of Birds" should be interesting sight seeing, both teams haven't been soaring high of late,they both had their wings clipped at Weekend(ok enough puns,had to do it though Laughing

) are 4-7 in their divisions. With Vick out,it will fall on Vince's shoulders to try and carry the "Dream Team" to a win.Eagles seemingly have nothing to play for,but with Giants losing games this is a must win game to close the gap for 2nd spot.Seattle are tied with Arizona. With game ot really offering alot of value with 1st touch down scorers, will go for.
Doug Baldwin to Score 1st touch down@8/1

Good Luck All

steviec27 · Group 3 Class Joined: 15 Apr 2009 Posts: 69

Cant touch the spread but a prop caught my fancy of Tavaris Jackson under 220.5 passing yards.

Main reason I like this is Seattle's pass offence is just not good. Ranked 25th in the they average 196.4 yards per game. And if that wasnt bad enough this is even skewed to some degree by the fact that Jackson has only thrown over 221 yards twice all season (a 319 & 323) which have bumped the stats up a little.
Phillys pass defence is nothing special sitting dead middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed per game but should be able to cope.
Another factor is that this is a night game in Seattle. The temperature is set to reach zero degrees by gametime. It is not going to be easy to catch a pass in those conditions and I see a lot of drops/stray passes.

Chipmonkadidooda · Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:59 pm Post subject:

It's a good shout that Steve as Seattle are likely without both of their WR targets tonight. Sydney Rice might not be cleared to play after concussion last week and Mike Williams was injured last week against the Redskins.

Good shout that for me. Win

(I don't do Prop bets though!)
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steviec27 · Group 3 Class Joined: 15 Apr 2009 Posts: 69

Since posting the prop bet the price has moved from 1.83 to 1.57 in less than an hour, insane movement not even backable at that price Shocked

manafana · Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:14 am Post subject:

yeah taken jackson under 217.5yds, he has an injury which while getting better i think they will again lean on run

edit william 10/11 on under 217.5 yds
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steviec27 · Group 3 Class Joined: 15 Apr 2009 Posts: 69

What book is this with may I ask manafana?

ebookconverter · Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:39 am Post subject:

It's not a classic match for this Thursday's NFL match, and much of the entertainment has been taking away with Michael Vick still unable to play.

Eagle's running-back LeSean McCoy is likely to play even though he's still listed as questionable, and therein could lie the key to this match. When McCoy is allowed to perform, Philly win - it's almost that simple. In every loss by the Eagles so far, bar one, McCoy has been held to under 100yds, and if the Seahawks can manage to stifle McCoy's production then they have a decent chance to win this.

Replacement Philly QB Vince Young hasn't passed too well since he took over from Vick for the last three games, with only a 57.5% completion rate. He's also thrown five interceptions, and only three TDs. Seattle are in no way the worst intercepting team either (12 Int so far) so they might see a pick or two tonight.

Philly might therefore want to rely more on McCoy tonight but he can struggle against good rush defences, as shown by losses to the 49rs, Atlanta, and Chicago. Seattle rank 11th overall in rush defence, joint 2nd for yards allowed at 3.5yds average per rush, and 5th for rushing TDs allowed with only 6 so far.

Seattle can make things very hard for the Eagles tonight and if McCoy especially is held in yardage, this could fall to Seattle.

SEATTLE +3PTS 20/21 Hills Bet365
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ruxpin1 · Classic Winner Joined: 27 Sep 2011 Posts: 991

You lot will not believe it but I had picked marshawn Lynch to score the 1st touch down,he had scored 7 straight TD's before Eagles game,but Bookies poultry price of 3/1 really put me off. Mad

SmoggyFever · Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 9:18 pm Post subject:

That's an awful price, should have gone online and i'd imagine you'd have got 5/1 at the very least Shocked

ebookconverter · Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:04 pm Post subject:

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

This is likely to be the most difficult match left for Green Bay as they head towards the perfect regular season, but there's much here that goes in the Packers favour. The Giants are struggling with injuries. They've already lost key defender Osi Umenyiora, and both RB Ahmed Bradshaw and LB Michael Boley are only listed as "Questionable". Bradshaw in particular only took part in limited practice yesterday, while Boley had two days limited practice. Even if they do play, they are not going to be fully effective and the Giants are likely to struggle tonight.

The Giants have posted only 10 and 20 pts in their last two home games, against Philly and Miami. The 10pts scored against Philly was a match that saw both Boley and Bradshaw out, so it's easy to see just how much the Giants depend on the contributions from those two.

All in all this may not be the difficult match for Green Bay that the schedule predicted. I'm having two bets in this one:

GREEN BAY PACKERS -6pts 10/11 Paddy Power
NEW YORK GIANTS under 24 pts 5/6 Paddy Power
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ebookconverter · Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 4:33 pm Post subject:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The 20.5pts spread in this match is one of the biggest I've seen in the NFL, and it's not outwith the realms of possibility that the Patriots will cover it and do so easily. The only problem with such big spreads is that you effectively rely on the better team having the desire to keep scoring. That's not always the case, especially when the game enters the fourth quarter. A team comfortably ahead will instead focus on keeping the ball and running down the clock.

Let's instead concentrate on the possible scores for Indianapolis. The current line for Indy's points is 14.5pts. They've played eleven times so far, but on the road the maximum they have scored is 17pts (twice from 5 road games - Tampa and Cincinnati), the other scores being 10 - Tennessee - and 7 (twice - Houston and New Orleans). Cincinnati was the only team with a winning record that have scored more than 10pts against on the road.

The Patriots may have a weak-ranked defence but they stifled visitors KC in their last home game, allowing only a field goal. Their low-ranking is mainly due to giving yardage up. On points allowed they average 11th, giving up 20.3pts on average. that's less than a TD worse than the best NFL defenses.

I cannot see how, apart from some major defensive lapses by the Patriots, that the Colts can score more than 14pts. They average less than that in actual scoring, and this is one of the #1 teams they are up against on the road.

COLTS to score less than 14.5pts 5/6 Paddy Power
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