MPP (Most Popular Pick)
8 picks
5 wins (62.5%)
(1.27pts) loss
Philly kicked off the week with a dismal performance at Seattle and kissed their play-off prospects goodbye as a result. The Colts are still on course for zero wins because they won't even get close to the Patriots and given the way the Saints destroyed them, even a 20pt spread might look like value! The Vikings will take their turn at trying to make sense of the Tim Tebow offense when they play host to Denver. The Packers line up for a tasty looking game against the Giants, who made a game of it in the 2nd half against the Saints on Monday. Atlanta must fancy their chances against the QB-troubled Texans, although by all accounts Michael Turner could miss out on the game. The Monday Night game might turn out to be the most boring in history as the toothless Chargers visit the boring Jaguars. _________________ ----
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Last edited by ebookconverter on Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 3:21 pm Post subject:
Quote:
NOTE: I've been v busy the last couple of days so I will update the review of last week and this post for the preview of this week possibly later today or tomorrow morning.
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i see the eagles getting at their seahawks qb tonight and young should be brought down behind line once or twice. _________________ follow me on twitter https://twitter.com/gghofman
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Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:49 pm Post subject:
An Early Pick then for me for the BT this month.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Philadelphia @ 1.62
Philadelphia -3 @ 1.95
There's nothing I like more than seeing the Eagles fail. Whilst they always seem to raise their game when the Cowboys come calling (as they have this year again) they look a spent force this season and the 'Boys 7-4 and 3 games clear, a follow up to last years Division win for the Eagles looks pretty much spent. That said the Eagles do raise their game for NFC clashes and with a few of them left still, they could still yet feature in the wildcards. They certainly have the talent and the threat. No Vick and no Maclin again tonight, but that's really no loss as far as I’m concerned - Vick is as much a liability as a game winner (there I go again!).
Their opponents tonight are the Seattle Seahawks emanating from a Division that I rank as the worst in the NFL....by more than a yard! Not much was expected for Seattle after losing starting QB Matt Hasselbeck and their current 4-7 season record is about right - They could replicate last year and go 7-9 again and let us not forget they won the division with that paltry effort last year! Seattle to be fair have played okay recently, winning two going into the game against the Redskins last week, They even led that game going into the last 15 minutes, but then they fell apart and they ended up losing 23-17. Now I could end this blog right here and say that if the woeful Redskins can do that and come away with a win then the Eagles can certainly emulate it. But to do that would be lazy and there are further pointers that need lying down to strengthen the claim to an Eagles win.
Now even without injured QB Michael Vick and WR Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles are still a dangerous offence and whether you take the ‘dream team’ tag seriously or not (does anyone!) they do have talented offensive qualities. Vince Young will start his third game in a row at QB and he’s been solid, albeit a little inaccurate. He led a game winning drive against the Giants last week, throwing a career-high 400 yards and a TD in the game, whist at the same time throwing just 1 turnover. He’s actually a much better fit for the Eagles right now who don’t want to be playing maverick routes and fly by the seat of your pants scrambling offence that Vick guarantees- They need discipline and the need simple instruction and Young gives them that. See the analagy in 80s snooker watching Steve Davis and Jimmy White – We all prefered watching Jimmy for the thrill and entertainment and we found Davis utterly boring and staid – But the nugget won 6 titles in the same time that Jimmy just won our affection! That’s Young and Vick – I’m not saying Young’s gonna claim 6 Superbowl rings, but neither is Vick. I digress!......
So offensively the Eagles now have some stability ay QB. They still have two standouts to turn to as well in RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson. McCoy has a toe injury but should start and he’s bagged 78 points this season which leads the league outside of kickers. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,050) and first downs (77).
The Seahawks by contrast look inept offensivley. Tavaris Jackson is okay, but he’s nothing to waste typface on and the Seahawks will likely be without WR Sidney Rice tonight as he suffered concussion last week and this being a short week for them may mean he’ll not be cleared to play. Fellow WR Mike Williams suffered a shoulder injury last week against the Redskins. Whilst he kept on playing he wasn’t thrown to for the rest of the game. He’s only amassed 14 catches totalling 192 yards and one TD this year in any case, although much of that is due to the problems the Hawks have at QB. Expect Marshawn Lynch to see much of the ball this evening without much to throw to…and that leads right into the Eagles best facet of their defence and that's against the rush where they it 2nd in the NFL. It’s worth noting that Seattle have managed more than 400 yards only twice this season and the Eagles currently average 420.
As far as the talent on paper this should be a stroll for the Eagles, it really should. There are though a couple of issues that would temper such a convincing win. The Seahawks have dropped the Ravens and the Giants this season and the Eagles are coming off a trip from New England for this game on a short week. I can’t back a Seahawks win though simply based on both team and division strength. The Eagles eminate from one of the strongest divisions and the Seahawks come from undoubtably the worst!
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I think no matter what the line is here, the Pats are a great bet.
20.5 is the biggest line i think we've seen for 4 or 5 years when the Pats were breaking all the records, but i really do not see how the Colts can live with the Pats in Foxburgh this Sunday.
The stats alone tell almost all the story. The Pats average 430 yards a game on offence, with Brady throwing more yards per attempt than ever in his career.
On the other side, Painter and the Colts offence just cannot get going, 181 yards per game through the air and another 100 on the ground.
Defensively the Colts really look messy, through the air they are mediocre, 238 yards per game, but they give up explosive plays like it's christmas come early for the opposing QB.
They had to sack their defensive coordinator this week, because that secondary is fast becoming an embarrassment.
It's the run game they really struggle on though, 150 yards allowed per game is far too many and really takes away their time of possession.
I feel the Pats will get up in this early, and go on to win 42-10
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Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:19 am Post subject:
Atlanta Falcons 1.80 Bet365
Atlanta Falcons 1.90 (-1.5) Bet365
The Houston Texans are still top of the AFC South and still hold a two game lead over the pursuing Tennessee Titans, but things have started to go wrong for the Texans at a crucial time. They have lost both Quarterbacks and will now go with rookie T.J. Yates. Their offense is such that they won’t have to rely on him too much as the main focus of the Texan offense is all purpose back Arian Foster. The target for the Falcons then will be to shut down Foster as much as possible and allow Yates to try his arm.
The Texans still have a strong side on the defensive side of the game. They are ranked second against the pass and fourth against the run. The Texans will look to rush Falcons Quarterback Matt Ryan and sack him as much as possible to slow the Falcons down.
The Falcons are ranked twenty-third on Pass Defense but should play above that ranking against the rookie Yates. Against the Run they are second so will be looking to frustrate Arian Foster.
On Offense the Falcons key areas will be how much pressure they can resist and how much they can protect Quarterback Matt Ryan to get his passes away. They will also be able to mix up their offense with the running of Michael Turner. Collectively the Falcons should just about be able to see this one out and keep pace in the NFC South leading New Orleans Saints.
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Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:36 am Post subject:
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Under 53.51.90 Bet365
There is a certain amount of value in backing the New York Giants at home as they play the undefeated Green Bay Packers. The amount of teams that make the regular season’s end without a loss are extremely few. This game is another expected shoot-out with the Packers getting ahead early and Giants Quarterback Eli Manning good through the air to keep up with the Packers score. With games like this going for overs in the points spread is the obvious choice but can so easily be much lower as we saw in the Thanks Giving Day match up between the Packers and Lions. The current spread is 53.5 and represents almost a touchdown each in each of the four quarters of the match. It’s quite possible but also very easy to fall behind that number with a time consuming drive, field goal or turnover.
What has happened to the imploding Buffalo Bills? Things looked rosy for them when they were 3 & 0 after beating the Patriots and 5 & 2 after beating the Redskins. Key player and leading rusher Fred Jackson was injured and out for the season. At the same time Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick seemed to have a crisis of confidence and has thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions in four defeats, three touchdowns coming in last week’s loss to the New York Jets. The good thing for the Buffalo Bills is their home record. They are currently 4 & 1 at Ralph Wilson Stadium but the bad news is they have not been at home since they started their collapse. The Buffalo Bills demise can be tracked by looking at their teams rankings as their rushing game is still ranked ninth in the league but with C.J. Spiller in for Fred Jackson they should start to drop. They also gave up four passing touchdowns on Defense last week to the Jets Mark Sanchez who has not been anywhere need as good as that against anyone else.
The Tennessee Titans are a strange side as top rated Running-back Chris Johnson has had a bad season but suddenly ran for 190 yards last week. The Bills can’t stop the pass and if Johnson gets going again the Titans should come through as pretty big winners.
New York Jets at Washington Redskins
Won last 2 against the Jets. Also Jets are 1-4 on the road in 2011.
Washington Redskins +1 21/20 BlueSq
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
The Colts are not winning and are not covering as well going 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.
New England Patriots -20.5 10/11 BlueSq
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Cowboys need to keep winning to put space between them and the Giants. With the Giants entertaining the Packers the Cowboys will see this as a great opportunity to open up a 2 game lead in the east.
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 10/11 BlueSq
Is under his Avg per game but team has won 5 of 7 while he is averaging only 49 yards per game in that time. Just have this feeling he is gonna perform better over the last 5 weeks of regular season. With only 61 yards to get looks very low & too good to pass up on.
Jason Whitten (Dallas Cowboys) Over 60.5 Receiving Yards 1.83 Bet365
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans
Houston only have 1 chance and that is to rush rush rush, as long as the Falcons don't get on top of them early this is an easy play to have. Foster averages 96.84 Yards Per Games over his last 25.
Arian Foster (Houston Texans) Over 81.5 Rushing Yards 1.83 Bet365
Good luck to all
Last edited by lb1975 on Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:48 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:03 pm Post subject:
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
This is likely to be the most difficult match left for Green Bay as they head towards the perfect regular season, but there's much here that goes in the Packers favour. The Giants are struggling with injuries. They've already lost key defender Osi Umenyiora, and both RB Ahmed Bradshaw and LB Michael Boley are only listed as "Questionable". Bradshaw in particular only took part in limited practice yesterday, while Boley had two days limited practice. Even if they do play, they are not going to be fully effective and the Giants are likely to struggle tonight.
The Giants have posted only 10 and 20 pts in their last two home games, against Philly and Miami. The 10pts scored against Philly was a match that saw both Boley and Bradshaw out, so it's easy to see just how much the Giants depend on the contributions from those two.
All in all this may not be the difficult match for Green Bay that the schedule predicted. I'm having two bets in this one:
GREEN BAY PACKERS -6pts 10/11 Paddy Power NEW YORK GIANTS under 24 pts 5/6 Paddy Power _________________ ----
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I agree with everything that Hogsback has said about this game. This Buffalo team has lost 4 straight, having trouble running the ball and with Fitzpatrick throwing 5 Touchdowns & 7 Interceptions in that time.
Titans in the meantime have turned their season around, and with Chris Johnson suddenly exploding with a big game, its hard to see anything else other than a Titans win.
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Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 2:41 pm Post subject:
The 2nd of the live games on Sky this week comes from the MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, as the 6-5 New York Giants play hosts to the 11-0 Green Bay Packers.
As i wrote last week, the Giants 2nd half of season collapse continues and is even more prevalent after their hammering at the hands of the New Orleans Saints (49-24) last week, the Giants have lost their last 3 games and are now 2nd in NFC East behind the 7-4 Dallas Cowboys, the Giants offence is ranked #11 overall (Pass 4 and Rush 32) they are averaging 373 yards per game (Pass 291 and Rush 82), Why can’t they run the ball? Seriously, when you have a couple of running backs like Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs on your roster you should be able to pick up at least 120 yards per game, i know both players have missed game-time with injuries but 82 yards per game is pathetic, which is putting much more pressure on QB Eli Manning, i’m not his biggest fan (in fact i can’t stand anything to do with the Giants) but he is having a good season, 3358 yards and 20 td’s (he’s only 117 yards behind Rodgers!), but perhaps the most impressive performer on the Giants offence is WR Victor Cruz, 957 receiving yards and 7 td’s, Defensively the Giants are ranked #28 overall (Pass 26 and Rush 24) they are giving up 381 yards per game (Pass 251 and Rush 130), i really can’t fathom the Giants this season, they have always been a solid defensive unit and ran the ball, this season they can’t do any of that, having said that they do have a pretty impressive pass rush, 31 teams sacks led by DE Jason Pierre-Paul with 10.5 individual sacks, however they will be without other DE Usi Umenyiora and LB Mark Herzlich.
What more can you say about the Packers and Rodgers in particular, 11-0 this season, 17 games since their last defeat, League MVP? I’ll be brave and give it to Rodgers now!!, the Packers offence is carrying all before them, ranked #4 overall (Pass 3 and Rush 28) they are amassing 401 yards per game (Pass 304 and Rush 97), Rodgers has thrown for 3475 yards and 33 td’s so far and with a passer rating of 127.7 the league MVP must surely be his, his #1 target WR Greg Jennings (835 yards and 8 td’s) and WR Jordy Nelson (782 yards and 9 td’s) are 2 top notch receivers but not they only targets for Rodgers, he has hit 8 different receivers in the end zone, the running game in Green Bay has flattered to deceive this season, i really thought RB James Starks would be one of the top rushers in the NFL this season after his very impressive performances in the playoffs last season, but he has only amassed 560 yards this season and perhaps more worryingly has scored 1 td so far this season, Starks is reportedly playing with an injury which could be an excuse for his lack of production this season, the Packers defence is ranked #30 overall (Pass 31 and Rush 13) they are giving up 393 yards per game (Pass 288 and Rush 105), LB Desmond Bishop has been a tackling machine this season, 97 combined tackles and 75 individual tackles so far this season but he won’t be adding to those stats today as he will missing as will LB AJ Hawk leaving LB Clay Matthews as their only starting LB fit today, put he will ably backed by multi-positional superstar CB Charles Woodson, this guy could just about play anywhere on defence, 49 tackles, 2 sacks and 6 interceptions, he just keeps on pulling it out every season.
The Packers lead the H2H 30-23-2 and handed out a hammering the last time these two met in 2010 (45-17), the Giants are in desperate form and the Packers just keep rolling on, the only little bit of doubt i have about the Packers is when are the going to start benching their starters to keep them fresh for the playoffs? I don’t think it will be during this game, they haven’t secured the division yet (surely only a formality), the Packers offence is far too strong for the Giants defence, neither side run the ball effectively so it will be left to Rodgers and Manning to battle it out, and there will only be one winner in that battle, Rodgers by a million miles, the “Cheeseheads” have got a 6.5 point deficit to overcome on the handicap and Rodgers, Jennings and Nelson et al will be able to cover that quite convincingly, the Green Bay Packers -6.5 @19/20 my best bet of the weekend. _________________ If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?
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