England v South Africa Three Match Test Series

[TeddyT]

England look to continue their successful season at home with the arrival of South Africa for three Tests, five ODIs and three T20s against the Springboks.

The home team are in sparkling form, not losing a match in any format against this Summer’s previous visitors, West Indies and Australia.

South Africa are coming into this series on the back of a longish absence from international cricket having not played a Test Match since drawing with New Zealand in Wellington at the end of March. The tourists will need to find their form quickly against their in-form hosts.

England’s Recent HOME Test Record (5 years)

Played 33
Won 19
Lost 5
Drew 9

South Africa were the last team to beat England on their own soil, winning 2-1 back in 2008

South Africa’s Recent AWAY Test Record (5 years)

Played 22
Won 12
Lost 4
Drew 6

South Africa’s last AWAY Test Series defeat was to Australia back in 05/06. Since then the South Africans have made nine trips abroad without losing a series.

Since the start of this century there have been eleven tests between the two countries with the match up looking like this

Test Match Head to Head since 2000:

England 4
South Africa 3
Draw 4

All of the above suggests a remarkably close set of three Tests at The Oval, Headingley and Lords but, for me, England have the upper hand given their excellent recent form.

The best odds of the bookies make England 11/10 to win the series, South Africa 5/2 and a Drawn series at 3/1.

The threat of rain in the First Test at The Oval looks fairly minimal until the last two days and even then, if the forecast can be believed, it doesn’t look likely that the rain will be that significant. Given England’s recent good form compared to South Africa’s lack of recent international match practice I would have to go for the hosts to win the First Test and then put themselves in a really strong position in the three match series. Undoubtedly the Springboks are a formidable team away from home but that lack of match practice would be a major worry.

3pts win England to win the Test Series against South Africa

What outcome does anyone else fancy in the Test Series between England and South Africa?

[scoobydoo68]

I was thinking of backing the draw counting on the poor weather to continue, with both sides having a strong batting line up i can see 300+ scores for both sides in the first innings which should take us deep into day 3, a little bad weather in the last 2 days would almost certainly lead us towards a draw. However both sides also have superb bowing attack and a couple of early wickets early on in an innings will get you on top in the match, personally i favour England as we have 4-5 brilliant bowlers who are all capable of taking wickets at any time.
Another positive for England is the conditions, overcast and humid is just the kinda conditions England thrive in, South Africa will be praying for 5 sunny days, overcast and humid conditions are also perfect for Jimmy Anderson who should get some swing, if he does then he's in the wickets.
Result - favouring draw will wait on the weather.
Jimmy Anderson top England bowler - 9/4
Jimmy Anderson man of the match - 11/1
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[fairfranco]

Looking forward to this series a lot. Not only will it decide who is world number 1 but it will provide some outstanding entertainment. 2 teams packed with both excellent bowlers and outstanding bowling attacks.

There are some major match up's and with the quality of bowling I expect to see some real tense stuff especially as batsman attempt to see off the new ball.

England's new ball partnership has been in outstanding form over the last few years with Anderson practically unplayable during his first spell of an innings while whomever bowls between Broad, Bresnan and Finn will also be causing plenty of problems. whichever one follows up doens't make it any easier either.

South Africa themselvels have the number 1 test bowler in Dale Steyn who produces consistant pace and agression while new boy Philander has some of the most exceptional bowling stats seen for the start of a career. Morne Morkel can at times be off the mark but always picks up wickets and with his height he produces some real snorters back of a length.

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both teams have some quality with the bat though as anyone that follows will have seen, Cook and Strauss are a solid opening pair with the dependable Trott to follow and Pietersen after that. Englands bowling isn't just good at the top of the order though, it goes all the way down to Swann at number 9.

South Africa open with captain Greame Smith and the outstanding Hashim Amla followed by the dependable Jacqus Kallis. AB De Villiers is a massive talent as well.

I do feel that England have the edge batting wise though with a tail that isn't anywhere near as strong.


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With rain still expected for the first test prior to the eventual arrival of the English Summer it's tough to call what the score might be as to weather we will get 3 results.

I do believe though that the bowling from both sides is good enough to produce results over 5 days.


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Bets:

England to win 2-1 @ 10's (StanJames)

This obviously relies on 3 out of 3 results but if you look at the prices available this is way higher than everything else for that score and looks great value to me.

Alisdair Cook - over 210.5 runs @ 1.83 (Bodog)

Cook is nothing but consistant and you can't ever fancy him not to score really. I've based 211 runs on 5 innings (in reality i don't see any innings wins so he'll probably get 6). That would require an average of 42. Should be doable for cook.

Kevin Pietersen - over 195.5 @ 1.83 (Bodog)

KP may not have had the best of years so far in tests with an average of just 38 but I can see him coming good here especially coming off the back of his magical knock in Gloucester with 236 unbeaten. This will be a lot tougher and he wil have to dig in against tough batting but he does have an average of 42 v South Africa.

Jacques Kallis - under 220.5 @ 1.83 (Bodog)

He may have an outstanding average and has been excellent in the last few years but his average in England is just 29, this is probably my toughest call to go against the dependable Kallis but I'm going to take him on here.

[fairfranco]

FIRST TEST - At The Oval

A decent bit of rain expected for the first couple of days, i'm backing the draw on Betfair with a view to trade when it hopefully drops below 2.2.

When play does come I do however expect we'll see some wickets from top draw new ball bowlers so will want to get out.

Might have further bets to come when I've looked at the game in full

[scoobydoo68]

Apparently the weather should be ok with only a little bit of bad weather expected on day 3, the draw has gone from 5/4 to 6/4 so i will be taking it at a good price now.
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[manafana]

yeah i like the new ball kings anderson and steyn to do well.

gone for upset top bats ab and bell 6/1, i think the openers could fall early.

[fairfranco]

V Philander - 98 & over performance points @ 1.83 (Bet365

With 51 wickets in 7 matches Vernon Philander has really begun to make a name for himself, I doubt he'll keep his average at 14 for a whole lot longer but he's a dangerous bowler who will pick up wickets and should enjoy English conditions.

At 20 pts per wicket he needs 5 with no other contribution but he has at times shown he can add a few runs with the bat if extra points are required.

[fairfranco]

England have won the toss and are into bat.

I think that South Africa are great value at 4.5 now just before the start.

An early wicket or 2 would see the price tumble and with good cloud cover and top quality bowling it won't be easy for the openers, no matter how good they are.

[TeddyT]

Good shout Franco - Strauss out very early.

Pitch report saying that the pitch should turn later in the match

They have been saying on the tv that the weather is unlikely to play apart so a result one way or another looks likely.

Need Cook and Trott to steady things down now for England

[fairfranco]

I've backed Swann for Man of the Match at 18/1 based on what I'd heard about potential for turn later in the match.

he'll get the day 4/5 pitch to try and get Saffers out in the final innings and could be the deciding factor.

[manafana]

got out draw anyway, england just look their old selves, drop an early wicket but no panic and cook has looked sound at crease.

[drobgod]

I was surprised at the statistics shown yesterday on South Africa's Number One Bowler in the World Dale Steyn. His record against England was dismal compared to other countries and it showed yesterday. He was getting very annoyed at the slightest thing...........looks like they have his measure at the moment.