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NZ vs England Test Series
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Dammo Qwirky
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Post Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:44 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Can see a wicket falling in the first half hour or so after lunch, NZ bowled better up to lunch.
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fairfranco
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Post Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:31 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

Interestin first day which has seen the odds move around a little but eventually come out not far off what the starting prices were.

Much more positive stuff from England, scoring 3.9 an over with Ambrose again having a good innings, hopefully he can go on to score a big century with only 3 more runs needed at the moment. He's got Collingwood alongside him on a strong 48 and a partenership of 155 runs. England while these two can keep going are in a good position to build a big score.

However we must remember that these are Englands last recongnised batsman before the tail come in and without this impressive partnership England's score could have been looking very bleak at the end of the day.

For England backers or really draw backers for that matter it's riding on these two scoring and lasting as long as possible with hopefully some decent extra runs from Sidebottom and and Broad to finish things off.

Too close to call at the moment with England in a make or break position I feel.
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thetitan
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Post Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:35 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

hmmm maybe i shouldn't have been so conservative with my draw back! still, can't really complain, would be happy to build up small green for the next few days.

looks like ambrose played a blinder, only a matter of time before the press start slagging him off Laughing
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bigmoose
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Post Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:51 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't decide what's par score on this track. Full balls are easily driveable. Good length stuff can be hit through the line and Ambrose showed there's plenty of time to cart shorter stuff off backfoot for boundaries.

Every run we finish short of 400 is to NZ advantage i reckon (342-9 at mo).

Don't think our bowlers have the discipline, other than Sidebottom, to defend this score. Only a pefect line & length seems to do it. Please NZ prove again how poorly you can bat at times.
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fairfranco
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Post Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:23 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I thought England had scored too low but it appears not as Anderson does the business on his return to the side with 5 wickets taking New Zealand all out for just 198.

England now have a perfect opportunity to win, 3 days left and they're back in for their second innings with a 144 run lead, if they bat to the same score again they should be very confident of winning this.

England were 4 without loss from 5 overs play at the end of the day.

England are 1.25 to win, a price I would never in a million years consider taking on this England side with so much cricket still to play. They are in a strong position and certainly SHOULD win this game but as we know, this is England and they will make it hard work for themselves in one way or another!
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findfreelay
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Post Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:41 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

Fairfranko you are right.New Zealand still in the game and Draw is very unlikely if no rain.
England lead by 148 runs and we know they can collapse around 120
Looking for NZ 15+ if comes before lunch tomorrow at score 40/0 for good trade.
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thetitan
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Post Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:20 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

I layed England quite a bit @ 1.7 last night, I luckily got matched overnight, buying back at evens thanks to the Fleming/Taylor partnership although I was sweating it when I watched some of the highlights on SSN!

Draw is completely out of the equation I think, and I wonder if it is a free Lay, even at 12/1? Confused

This test really reminds me of NZ's test series in SA a few months back...the bowlers did OK on the seaming tracks but the batsmen really struggled and they were destroyed.

Difficult to see how even England can stuff this up from here to be honest - they're already 148 in front and I reckon they only need about 150 more to wrap this up. Realistically, they should be getting a minimum of 250 in their second innings, ie a lead of 400...which NZ shouldn't really get close to.

I'll be backing England a fair bit from here on in, although I don't think the price will come in for a while, so I may look to back them when a wicket falls.
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thetitan
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Post Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:16 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

day 3 a bit of a non-event for trading although things have taken a huge twist with the news that anderson probably won't be able to bowl in the 4th innings.

this is absolutely massive for me - i really don't rate broad at test level and if the pitch flattens out, i think he could go for plenty.

sidebottom and monty are the only two reliable bowlers left, along with colly, but there is hardly any spin in the wicket so I can't see monty taking too many wickets.

what do people reckon? I think that in a four-pronged attack, losing your main threat in the first innings is a huge blow and has loads of knock-on effects on the rest of the team.

NZ are bound to put up a fight...what do people reckon?
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findfreelay
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Post Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:31 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

Simple plan back England 1.6x and if odds drift back more at 2.2x if comes and then go to bed and collect in morning Wink .Seriously England odds may stay for long at 1.6x if comes tomorrow and then on 2.2x.Only 1 or 2 wicket will bring down odds to 1.2x again.
Ya miracle is possible but green out before that.
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bigmoose
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Post Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:40 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Watched lots of last nights cricket (but without Betfair up), went to bed, just got up to see Eng win at 1.20. They were 1.23 before day 3 & taking a 420 lead! Then i saw the Anderson news & all became clear.

So perhaps tonight is time for me to dabble in cricket trading? Is it time to Lay Eng yet, or do i wait for the useless NZ opener Bell to get out first, my logic being one good partnership by NZ should send Eng odds out rather quickly? Personally i still can only see the Eng win. NZ bowled poorly (well for the first session & a half when i was properly awake) & it was sunny, yet still Eng failed to get 300. Our remaining bowlers can't be much worse than that NZ attack yesterday, and we're meant to be getting cloud cover Day 4.

As an aside Vaughan in interview prior to Test series said "As a batsman the first 60 runs of an innings are for yourself, and only any runs scored beyond that are for the team. Our batsmen must contribute to the team this series". On that (harsh) logic in the series so far Vaughan has contributed a massive 3 runs, Colly 11 and Ambrose 42. No other "team" contributions at all.
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thetitan
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Post Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:15 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

bigmoose - anderson is playing and fit to bowl, honestly can't see too many trading opps.

will leave a hopeful back of 1.4 on england, doubt it will get matched though...
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bigmoose
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Post Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 7:35 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

cheers Titan.

When Anderson came out to bat and took our lead past 430 the Eng win was still 1.19. And that score has never been reached 4th innings. So came to a new conclusion that Eng win was actually over-priced & left it alone (as got enough money on Series bets involving NZ not winning the series as it is).

Even when How was out early & Bell was a sitting duck who was batting like an amateur the Eng win still stuck around 1.17. 90% of tests must have been won from that position, even in asia. It's finally down a realistic 1.08 a couple of hours prior to Day5 starting.

.... think the short response was i didn't & won't be trading on this Test!
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