Joined: 03 Jul 2006
Posts: 1040
Location: South Devon
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:23 am Post subject: PGA Tour - AT&T National Jun 28 – Jul 1 2012
Tiger Woods will be playing this week at the AT & T National which takes place at the Congressional Country Club, Bethesda, Maryland. This course is a par 71 and is long at 7574 yards and has three par 5's. The Blue course at this venue hosted this tournament in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and was then altered and lengthened and used for the U S Open in 2011 which Rory won.
The Aronimink Golf Club golf course in Pennsylvania was the venue for this event in 2010 and 2011 so the last two year's form for this event can be ignored.
As previously mentioned, this course was altered in 2009. There was a greens renovation that rebuilt all 19 greens and replaced the Poa annua with bentgrassis. New tees were also built to make it longer. K J Choi won this event in 2007 with only 9. Anthony Kim won in 2008 with - 12 and Tiger won in 2009 with - 13 but the course is longer now.
Jim Furyk had a great record there between 2007 and 2009 finishing 7th, 3rd and 3rd, but I'm not sure he can bounce back from the disappointment of his US Open failure.
Tiger Woods won over course and distance in 2009 and was 6th in 2007 so will be hard to beat, but the odds reflect that. Hunter Mahan can also boast good form at the track but again it's not been lost on the bookmakers.
I'm on the hunt for bigger prices so will be back later with my selections.
Joined: 03 Jul 2006
Posts: 1040
Location: South Devon
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:05 pm Post subject:
Going with three players in this.
Adam Scott ( 25/1 ) had a good season in 2011 with a victory in the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational and managed six other top 10 finishes including a jt 2nd in the Masters. He has not found his best form yet this year but I consider him to best on long courses so the one this week should suit him. He came 8th at the Masters this year and was a respectable jt 15th in his latest event which was the U S Open. He is capable of playing well from tee to green and could win if he can putt better than he has been lately.
Jason Day ( 40/1 ) did not win last year but managed some good performances including a jt 2nd at the Masters. He was jt 3rd at the Deutsche Bank Championship and came 2nd when the U S Open was held at this course last year so he has shown he can do well at this course. He has not played so well so far in 2012 but has obtained two top 10 finishes on the PGA tour this season. This week's long course should suit his style and he looks worth an e/way interest.
Martin Laird ( 66/1 ) has produced a couple of good performances this season. He was 2nd in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii and jt 2nd at the Players so is capable of playing very good golf. He is long off the tee so the course this week may suit him and he can perform well from tee to green. He did miss the cut in his latest event but I am expecting a better performance this week and he looks to have an e/way chance at decent odds in my opinion.
Good luck everybody
Pete
Last edited by The rabbit on Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:33 am; edited 1 time in total
Ben won the British Open Championship in 2003 then seemed to disappear from the top of the leaderboards for several years before finding his way back into the winners circle twice in 2006 at the Booz Allen Classic and 84 Lumber Classic. He then got lost in the wilderness again where he made only nine Top 10 finishes from 2007-2011.
This season has seen a totally different player emerge from the wilderness and stake his claims as one of the real success stories of 2012. He has had nine starts on the PGA Tour and made five cuts. All five made cuts have produced Top 25 finishes! Three of those where Top 10′s which also included a win in the Valero Texas Open.
He has also had four starts on the European tour this season and made all four cuts. The best finish was a T13th in the Omega Dubai Desert Classic back in February.
Looking at his last five starts on the PGA Tour you will not find to many more players which such good form. 1st Valero Texas Open, T13th Zurich Classic of New Orleans, T5th Wells Fargo Championship, T2nd The Players Championship and a missed cut at his last start in The Memorial Tournament.
After a three week break Ben should be fresh and raring to go this week. His current stats should see him play well here. He is 12th in driving accuracy, 7th in GIR, 1st in strokes gained putting, 1st in 3 putt avoidance, 6th in birdie average and 2nd in Par 4 performance.
John Huh 110/1
I am a big fan of this young guy. This is his rookie year on tour and he already has a win to his name. He is currently 75th in the World Golf rankings and the 22 year old has a big future on the PGA Tour.
When John won the Mayakoba Golf Classic in February he started his forth round seven strokes behind the overnight leader. He went out and shot an 8 under 63 to finish at 13-under. He ened up in a play off with Robert Allenby. The play off went for eight holes!!! The guy has nerves of steel.
He has had 17 starts this season and made 12 cuts. 8 of those were Top 25 finishes. Highlights have been T6th Farmers Insurance, T2nd Valero Texas Open and T5th Crowne Plaza Invitational.
His last two starts have been a T19th at The Memorial Tournament and a missed cut last week at the Travelers Championship.
Stats wise he is looking good for Congressional. 9th in driving accuracy, 23rd in strokes gained putting, 13th in all round ranking and 7th in GIR 200+yards.
You have to love a guy whos favourite quote is “The pain of sacrifice is nothing compared to the pain of regret“. That second tour win is not to far away.
Brendon De Jonge 120/1
This selection is purely made on the basis of a guy who is on the upwards curve and is not to far away from posting a high finish. This could be the week. Keep a close eye on him over the next few weeks.
Brendon has been a busy guy this season with 19 starts on the tour. He has made 16 of those cuts and had five Top 25′s and two Top 10′s.
His stats have him 15th in GIR, 36th in scoring average, 22nd in all round ranking and 9th in Par 5′s.
Now check out the curve I was on about. His last four starts have been T41st Crowne Plaza Invitational, T38th The Memorial Tournament, T34th St Jude Classic and T8th Travelers Championship.
He may not go on and win this week however I expect to see a high finish which could be great for Each Way or Top 10 backers. _________________ Living the Dream!
After a pretty quiet start to the season KJ has shown signs of a return to form in his last two outings finishing 19th at the Memorial Tournament and 15th in the US Open. At Memorial KJ was 1st in Driving Accuracy and that will stand him in good stead this week.
Winner of this event in 2007 when it was played on this course KJ will be carrying my money this week at odds of 40/1.
Seung Yul Noh
My second choice this week is KJ's fellow countryman Seung Yul Noh. This talented youngster has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water, recording two top-tens in his last six events. Winning the Malaysian Open at the tender age of nineteen shows he has the winning mentality and I'm sure it won't be long before he triumphs in the States.
One previous visit to the course produced four consistent rounds of 72-70-73-71 for a 30th place finish in the US Open won by Rory McIlroy in 2010. Odds of 80/1 with Stan James look encouraging and I'll be backing him each-way.
Blake Adams
Blake carried my money last week and I'm going to stick with him again as it was only a few missed greens over the weekend that stopped him contending and his driving was in really good shape.
A 19th place finish in the Memorial Tournament was followed by a very creditable 21st place at the US Open and even last week's 29th was hardly a disgrace. Another solid effort earlier in the season was his 12th place finish in the Players Champonship at Sawgrass. I get the feeling Blake Adams plays tough courses well and Congressional is certainly tough. Odds of around 90/1 look decent enough to me with the only negative being no course form.
Scott Piercy 125/1 Eachway Various.. Big hitting American has finnished in the top 25 eight times this season. Ranks 7th for eagles and 28 for birdies is 18th in driving distance and is a far better putter than he was 18 months ago got his breakthrough pga tour win @ last years Reno Tahoe . I Expect him to kick on and claim a few more wins hopefully one this week.H as a very poor record here 2 missed cuts from 2 starts but i think that is reflected in 3 figure odds but if he is on his game i expect a big week Good Luck everyone
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 8980
Location: Essex/Javea
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:45 pm Post subject:
Brian Davis 66/1 E/W
Brian Davis is some player and improving every season on tour but yet to win but a win is not far off and expect him to shed his maiden tag soon and thought last week he would but his worst round and final round cost him dearly Davis will still take confidence from that and having a cracking season to date and has 7 top 25 placings in 17 events so very good going but really hitting form now with seven top 25 placings coming in his last ten events Driving well and hitting many greens and if he gets the putter going then will be a serious threat"
Davis Love 66/1 E/W
Davis Love was some player but lost form for a few seasons but looks like he has regained it this season and enjoying his golf again Been in good form this season and has four top 25 placings in ten events Missed many cuts but does very well when he makes them and feel he will do well here and had success here over the years with some good finishes Davis Love has been in fine form this month in his last three events and can hopefully finish the month well Played very well at the Us Open where many struggled and he finished tied 29th and had a good final day Last event before that came close to winning the Fed Ex and got third and will back him to continue fine form and looks value Each Way"
KJ Choi
The big man won this event back in '07, and he is one sure to welcome back the return to the old course. Recently his tour form has looked a bit better and I think 4o/1 is a fair price for a consistent old-timer like KJ.
Ben Crane
A less consistent type, but a player I like. Great putter, and accurate enough off the tee, if he had a bit more mental strength he'd be a key contender IMO. At 8o's I can take a chance _________________ brewsty39
RYAN PALMER 33-1
current form read 9th, 5th and 3rd, 13th in distance, 9th strokes gained, 11th scoring ave, 16th birdie ave, 42nd in scrambling and 19th in total putting. not the most accurate but confident of another good showing.
LAIRD 55-1
good current form, if forgiving m/c at the open. 27th in distance, 10th GIR, 5th birdie ave, not strong on scrambling or putting but is known to play difficult courses well, and thats mainly my reasons for backing him.
CURTIS 55-1
not long off the tee but neither is FURYK and alot of the press seem to rate his chances so why not take a chance on a guy who is in good form and who is 3 times bigger price wise and only a few feet behind in distance stats. CURTIS ranks 12th in accuracy, 7th GIR,1st in strokes gained, 6th birdie ave, 21st scoring ave and is having a excellent season with the putter being towards the top in most putting stats. have done very well backing him in the past and that may be a big factor in backing him here as lack of length could be a problem.
have also done PALMER and DYSON in Each Way double.
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 3030
Location: County Durham
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:00 pm Post subject:
Kevin Stadler - EW @ 110/1
Kevin Stadler done fantastic last year in this event to finish in 11th place, especially after opening with a 3 over par 73.
He fired in 69, 64 & 68 in his final 3 rounds to give him that 11th place finish, if he had started with a par he would have finished 3rd overall.
He has only missed the cut in 4 events so far this year, although 2 of them have been in his last 4 events played including last week.
He finished 11th last year after missing the cut in his previous event, he has 6 top 16 finishes this year and if he can get off to a good start can post 4 good rounds here
Robert Allenby - EW @ 90/1
Robert Allenby played in this event last year and got better after each round, he started with a 71 in round 1 and followed that with 68's in rounds 2 & 3 before finishing with a 5 under par 65 which left him in 6th place.
Prior to this tournament last year he missed the cut in the US Open after finishing 13th in FedEx St Jude Classic.
This year he again missed the cut in his last tournament, the Travellers Championship after finishing 7th in the FedEx St Jude Classic.
He also has 2 runner up places this year in the Tavistock Cup and in the Mayakoba Golf Classic and can get another positive score again this week _________________ My Twitter Page = Toonmick70
My Facebook Page = Michaelmickh
The PGA Tours heads back to Congressional the venue for last years US Open, this time for the AT&T National. This will be the 6th year of the event, but the last two have been at the Aronimink GC where Nick Watney won. Tiger won the last time the event was at Congressional in 2009, it also hosted in 08 & 07. This event took the place of the Booz Allen Classic, and congressional also hosted that event in 2005. So various bits of course form to look at, although perhaps the most relevant will be last years US Open as the course was lengthened for that event. The lengthening also meant the course reverted to a par 71 when previously it was a 70, when I talk under par rounds I mean under the new par of 71.
First thought is my pick for the recent US Open Jim Furyk who had a great record here from 07 to 09 finishing 3rd in both 07 & 08, and 7th in 09, 37th here in 2005 but did miss the cut in the US Open here last year, but then 2011 was quite disappointing for Jim. Only 1 player in the field has more rounds under par, 13, & only 2 have a better % of rounds when they’ve played here more than twice 72%. Recent form is good also with 4th in the US Open & at Colonial with a 13th in between, 26th at Quail Hollow is his worst finish in 9 events since missing the cut back at the Honda Classic.
Finishing last week’s event strongly was Hunter Mahan who shot a 61 in the final round to move up to 11th. That followed 38th at the US Open, 19th at Memorial & 37th at Colonial. Here he's been good as well with a runner up spot in 09 (closing with a 62) & 8th in 07, 12th in between, did miss the cut in 05 & last year at the US Open. Has 11 under par rounds or 69%.
Hard to ignore the host for this week’s event Tiger Woods who’s played here twice before and was 6th in 07 & win the event in 09. Only one round over par from 8, a 73 to open in 07. Didn’t play last year at the US Open on the new format. Form is ok with 21st at this year’s US Open following a win at the Memorial Tournament.
Two more thoughts, one is big hitting Robert Garrigus who has an improving record here, 30th in 07 then 27th, 25th & 3rd last year at the US Open. Matches Furyk with 13 rounds under par, but with 1 less visit rocks in at 81%. Current form is perhaps a bit of an issue in that he missed the cut at the US Open, 42nd at the St Jude & 70th at the Memorial, but looking back he was only 71st at the Memorial last year & missed the cut at the St Jude before rocking up at the US Open & posting 3rd.
The other thought is someone who finished a couple ahead of Garrigus last year, Jason Day. That was an improvement on his missed cuts in his two previous visits in 08 & 09. Not having such a good season though and 59th at the US Open ended a sequence of MC, 9th, MC 9th, WD.
One more just seen and that’s Davis Love III who has the most rounds under par here with 14, or 78%. Was runner up here in 05 at the Booz-Allen, but then missed the cut in 07, before a good run of 27th, 16th & 11th at the US Open. Is in reasonable form too with 29th at the US Open, 3rd at the St Jude & 16th at the Memorial.
Decision time then and Furyk & Mahan are tempting but a little unsure about the fact they missed the cut at the US Open here last year when on the new set up, compared to their good record’s prior to that. Tiger seems short at 11/2, Day’s form is a little too erratic, whilst Garrigus is in poor form but came good. Love well maybe I’m being ageist and not sure he doesn’t have other things on his mind with the Ryder Cup. Which leads me back to the start and I think I will forgive Jim Furyk’s performance last year as 2011 was a poor year & he seems to have bounced back.
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