European Tour -Trophee Hassan II 18-21st March 2010

[jimmywomble]

Hi all

Surprised no-one has started this but then I guess everyone is more worried about picking 3 legged donkeys (Well that's what mine always seem to be), the Transitions tournament on the PGA Tour & the cast list for this event isn't exactly mouthwatering. But incase someone out there is interested.

This event in Morocco is a regular event but it is the first time on the European Tour. Defending champ is Ernie, and other past winners include Torrance (07), Harrington (06), plus other big names like Monte, Payne Stewart, Trevino.

However not many big names here this week, Francesco Molinari is probably the biggest and heads the market.

The course in the Royal Golf Dar es Salaam in Rabat. There is some course form as it has been used for the Morocco Open, but that was last here in 2001 where Ian Poulter won. And on the Challenge Tour it hosted the Moroccan Classic in 02 & 03, won by Jean-Francois Lucquin & Greg Hutcheon respectively.

So the event is going to represent a good chance for one of the up & comings to get that first win, so possibly a Willett or Davies. Or perhaps a canny old veteran like Levet or Bjorn, another to watch out for in that category will be Santiago Luna who has won this 3 times.

I think my pick will be Rhys Davies. 3rd last time out in Malaysia so in good form, plus was 6th in Abu Dhabi. That Abu Dhabi maybe a good indicator as the course is in the desert on the outskirts of Rabat, and so perhaps it is a style of course he is happy on. Although he did win on the Challenge Tour last year in Wales in the pouring rain so perhaps not .

Good luck anyone having a go here.

Jimmy
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[samrob]

Hi guys, two golfers for this. Its an event - like most this year on the Euro Tour ( minus the Golf swing ) where anybody can win with only one top 50 player, so its about value as always in golf betting. Have gone for young player looking for a first professional win and a veteran who in this field seems a bit undervalued

S Lowry 66/ 1 ew - won as an amateur last year and has been improving since coming onto the Tour. Capable of shooting low rounds and a number of birdies in a row and as it is a pro-am first two days I don't think the courses will be playing that difficult and is a big hitter on courses with a number of par 5's.

R Jacquelin 80/1 ew- Think this is far too big a price in this field for the man with the smooth swing, although has not been playing really well recently. For someone who swings so nicely he has definitely underachieved in his career but this is the type of event where he could have a good week

Good luck to everyone who is betting on this tournament ( I think we'll need it !)

[Gookalicious]

Afternoon all,

I have 2 selections this week.

Daniel Vancsik 110-1 { E/W bet & first round leader }

" has won only twice on the European Tour - but both came on RTJ Sr courses (across the sea in Madeira and at Royal Park in Italy last year)"

3/4 rounds are played on the red course which has five par 5's so the longer hitters will have an advantage and hitting plenty of GIR will be key.

Vancsik ranks 13th in driving distance and 42nd in GIR and as stated above, both of his victories have come on this style of course where he won by 6 & 7 shots!
{ Victories came in March & May so obviously likes it this time of year }

Don't be put off by his bad form either as he never had a top 30 finish in the season before those 2 victories.


Michael Hoey 66-1 { E/W bet }

Finished 4th in this event last year and already has a win in Morocco when he landed the Moroccan Classic in 2008.

Hoey ranks 30th in driving distance and 23rd in GIR so will also be expecting to take full advantage of the par 5's.


I also expect Peter Lawrie { in good nick & finished 2nd on this course in 2002 when on the Challenge tour } & David Lynn { performs well on these courses } to go well here but felt their odds were just a tad skinny.


Good Luck!

[Muttley Sweep]

No bets for me here, not had time to look at this properly and didn't want to really, looks a truly dreadful event, pro am, over two different courses, with no proper form to go on, not for me.

Good Luck to those having a bet. I may have a look after 2 rounds.

[GolfPredictorGuru]

Weak field alright. As the field strength chart on our site shows, only 1 of the world top 50 (F Molinari, 46) and only 6 of top 100 playing. While this makes it more of a lottery, there is some value to be had. Our system shows that Lowry and Liang are both considerablly undervalued, as is Wall, to a lesser extent.
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[The rabbit]

Respect the chances of the top four in the market but their odds offer little value in my opinion

Betting more with hope than confidence

Ignacio Garrido ( 47/1 ) - not won for a while but managed four top 10's last season. He started this season well with an 11th in the Alfred Dunhill and finished 14th in Malaysia recently. Won on this course in 1996.

Alejandro Canizares ( 54/1 ) - not won on this tour since 2006 but has been showing a few signs that another win may be due with a couple of top 20 finishes this season - 13th in SA Open and 14th in Malaysia. Not the longest hitter but is reasonably accurate off the tee which should be important this week.

Christian Nilsson ( 110/1 ) - won the Saint Omer last year which was a weak event and his best performance was a joint runner up at the Castello Masters in a field which was stronger than the one he will face this week. Finished 15th in Dubai Desert classic 6 weeks ago which was a good performance. One of the longest hitters here and looks worth a bet at the odds but will need to be more accurate than usual.

Good luck

Pete

[carterbet]

Morning all

At Cheltenham all week so struggling for time. I have gone for the following:

Vancsik - liked your tip here Gook, so I have jumped on the bandwagon.

M Hoey - all the reasons have been posted previously, took 90s on Betfair.

Peter Lawrie - popular this week, 40/1

JF Lucquin - no form, but won here in the past, 200/1

P Martin - hunch bet, 80/1

Good luck all

[The rabbit]

Garrido managed to give me a share of a place with a joint 3rd with three other players but a big well done to Jimmy for picking the winner Rhys Davies

[carterbet]

Well done rabbit (pete) and especially jimmy for the win.

another week on the European tour and no return for me

[samrob]

well done jimmy for the win and rabbit for the place. picked Davies two weeks too early. Then a place and a win !I love the European Tour at the moment. I am so glad for the other tour

[gecko6]

skipped last week but just checked this and well done jimmy for picking davies...excellent..

and nice one pete too