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Blogs>Welshie1

   

welshie1 Blogging Profile

I've been betting for about 2 or 3 years now but after finding OLBG I gave up on betting and decided to use this site instead as it gave me a great opportunity to use my knowledge and pass my views on  read more

Vital Statistics

February LSP (2.34)
February ROI -5%
February Strike Rate 54 %


Performance


Mail

Feb 10

16:45

Chiefs Will Test Tigers

Rugby Union Exeter v Leicester

11/02 18:00


Exeter have already beaten the Tigers this season, winning 30-28 at Welford Road in September, which will be a big confidence booster for them ahead of this match at Sandy Park.

They've rested a lot of players in the last two weeks with it being LV Cup, and it showed last week v Bath, but before that they'd won four on the bounce.

At home they are incredibly strong and the team they've named looks close to first choice.

Leicester have got a class in their team and behind the scrum especially there's some serious quality with the Tuilagi boys and Toby Flood.

However the Chiefs have big aspirations and last week Leicester werent too great in the LV v Newcastle.


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Feb 10

16:35

Cherry And Whites Are Going Well

Rugby Union Gloucester v Northampton

11/02 14:15


Gloucester have looked very strong at home in recent matches, most notably when getting the better of Toulouse 34-24 in the Heineken Cup.

This weekend they are boosted by having six players back from international duty, four back from the Saxons and one each from Scotland and England in Rory Lawson and Charlie Sharples.

Northampton have a considerably weaker side than they would have at their strongest, and it has a similar look to the one that got hammered at Bath in the LV a couple of weeks ago.

I just think the Shed is a really hard place to go, and Northampton just dont have the quality to win this weekend.


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Feb 10

16:24

Quins Can Bounce Back

Rugby Union Harlequins v London Irish

11/02 14:00


The Quins havent been at their best of late, but this is their first league match at home since beating Newcastle in November, so clearly they havent had the easiest time of late.

The set up they have is fantastic and some of the rugby they've played this season has been very good, they always try and make sure they've got quick ball.

Danny Care and Nick Evans are a great half back partnership to have, probably the strongest of any side when the Internationals come around.

Irish got a win v Gloucester in the LV last week, but before that had lost three on the bounce.

They want to get some momentum going, but I look at their team and just wonder are they actually good enough to go the Stoop and win? I cant see it to be honest.


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Feb 10

16:18

It Could Be Much Closer Than Expected In Paris

Rugby Union France v Ireland

11/02 20:00


Love these night games in the Six Nations and this will be a great occasion as France host Ireland, in what's expected to be a really competitive game.

France werent very convincing in a 30-12 win over Italy last weekend, for much of the first half Italy matched them in all areas, and it was just that little bit of class which helped Les Bleus.

Looking at it here they have a similar type of team to Wales and it was the likes of Jonathan Davies and George North who hurt the Irish last week, and France line up with Malzieu, Rougerie and Fofana, who could most definitely cause them huge problems.

However bar the missing Brian O'Driscoll, Ireland travel with a very strong team to Paris. Stephen Ferris plays and that back row on paper has more than enough to deal with Picamoles & Co.

The Irish have a poor record in France, but quite a few people fancy them to win this weekend and I think this is a pretty comfortable handicap to go with.


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Feb 10

16:12

Italy To Stun Average England

Rugby Union Italy v England

11/02 16:00


England visit a sold out Stadio Olimpico in Rome, and if they play like they did last week in Scotland, they could very well be in for their first defeat against the Italians.

For me Italy looked much improved last week in their first match under new coach Jacques Brunel. They went through the faces and looked a lot more organised than they've done in recent campaigns.

Last year beating France at home was just the start and their team this weekend looks very experienced with Bortolami and Canale the two players coming into the starting XV, and also Mauro Bergamasco back on the bench.

Experience could be key here and so could Italy's talisman Sergio Parisse, who didnt have his best game last weekend, but is a lot more experienced than England's Phil Dowson.

England for me had absolutely no flair in their team last week and they havent made any changes, so realistically what is going to change?

Hodgson is a very negative choice at 10 and last week if they were playing any of the top three Six Nations teams, they would have been beaten and beaten rather comfortably.

This is all about if the Italians can take chances, they will be there for them, and I think that along with a solid kicking game from Kris Burton, and the shock could very well be on!


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Feb 10

16:02

Rhinos Look The Value At The DW

Rugby League Wigan v Leeds

11/02 17:45


Wigan are obviously going to be favourites with home advantage, but last week they were beaten at home by Huddersfield 20-16 and their squad is already starting to look a bit stretched.

George Carmont is out injured for this one and Liam Farrell is suspended, which means they've had to draft in a few youngsters to the squad.

This Saturday they welcome the defending champions, who've had a couple of extra days rest as they started their season on Friday, and they also started with a 34-16 win over Hull KR.

Their squad looks very settled, not too much has changed, and at this price the Rhinos have to appeal.


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Feb 10

14:16

Can Osasuna Keep It Tight V Barca?

Spanish Osasuna v Barcelona

11/02 19:00


Obviously backing unders in any game featuring Barcelona is a risk, especially as earlier on this season they beat Osasuna 8-0 at home. However only a month ago they came to Pamplona and won just 2-1 in the cup, so it might be a tricky game.

Osasuna havent won in eight, but six of those matches has finished with under 2.5 goals, so it suggests they arent doing much wrong defensively.

I watched them play Atletico Madrid last week and they competed well and it's a very hostile atmosphere.

Three of Barca's last four matches has finished with under 2.5 goals and they've scored just one goal in their last two away matches.

Since Guardiola became Barca manager in June 2008 he's had some tough games v Osasuna, losing 1-0 against them at home in May 2009 and being held to a 1-1 draw in October of the same year.


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Feb 10

14:06

This Could Be A Surprisingly Good One

Italian Cagliari v Palermo

11/02 19:45


Cagliari have lost just one of their last six matches and are playing some decent football at the moment, which is why I can see them playing their part in what could be a good game.

In their last home match they beat Roma 4-2, an impressive display, especially as they came from 2-1 down.

Palermo at the moment are a very entertaining side to watch, three of their last four matches has had over 2.5 goals scored and that includes an amazing 4-4 draw at the San Siro v Inter.

They are playing well, but defensively I'm not convinced by them, that to me is down to the coach Mutti, who was a slightly odd choice having been in charge of a Bari team that went down last season.


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Feb 10

13:59

Expect A Good One In Monchengladbach

German Borussia Mgladbach v Schalke

11/02 17:30


4th plays 3rd in the Bundesliga this weekend, and both sides are in really good form coming into this one.

BMG are through to the semis of the DFB Pokal after a 2-0 extra time win at Hertha Berlin on Wednesday, which will no doubt take something out of them ahead of this big match.

They have come back in very good form though and have already beaten Bayern Munich 3-1 at home since the break.

Schalke are a very attacking team and with just one loss in their last 11, they are doing something right.

Last week they could only draw 1-1 at Mainz, but before that had scored seven goals in two matches since the break.

Four of the last five matches between these two teams has had over 2.5 goals.


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Feb 10

13:44

3rd Place Playoff Wont Be A Belter

African Nations Cup Ghana v Mali

11/02 19:00


Second time in the tournament that these two have played each other, with Ghana winning the first contest 2-0 in the groups.

You'd expect Ghana to be the stronger side again, but you also expect the two to rest quite a few players as it's only a 3rd place playoff.

Ghana were surprise losers to Zambia in their semi, losing 1-0, and their lack of attacking invention really did cost them.

Mali gave their all v the Ivory Coast, but likewise lost 1-0.

I think Mali will be a bit more up for this one and that will make it a real competitive game, but with not many goals.


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Feb 10

13:34

Pompey Will Make It Tough For In Form Blackpool

Championship Blackpool v Portsmouth

11/02 17:15


People are going to fancy goals in this one because Blackpool are flying at the moment, they look in great shape and are facing a club in crisis and a team in 17th place.

However Blackpool's recent performances at home havent been the best. They needed very late goals to beat Palace and Coventry, and a late one to get a replay at Hillsborough in the cup.

Their attacking style is much better suited for playing on the road, teams like Portsmouth will make it very hard for them at Bloomfield Road.

Pompey played very well at St Andrew's in midweek and only lost 1-0 to in form Birmingham with Nathan Redmond scoring in the 86th minute.

Before that they had an impressive win at Peterborough and I think Appleton will focus on their strengths here and keep things tight.


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Feb 10

13:30

Under 2.5 As Usual For Palace

Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster

11/02 15:00


It's a good day of Championship football, but I can see this being one of the poorest games of the day, simply because the way both like to play.

Palace are the under 2.5 specialists, they keep things very tight, and because they dont have a great amount of goals in their team, credit has to be given for that as they are playing to their strengths.

Six of their last seven matches has had under 2.5 goals.

Doncaster are becoming harder to beat, but just dont have the quality to win matches.

They've not scored in three of their last four, although Dean Saunders did get the better of Dougie Freedman in his first match in charge earlier on this season, Donny nicking it 1-0.


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11/02/12 19:33:01 © 2002-2012 OLBG, part of Invendium Ltd Gamcare Gamble Aware  
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