jmstocka Blogging Profile I recently decided to take early retirement after reaching the ripe old age of 50.
Enabled me to concentrate more on the the thing Iv'e followed most of my life, namely HORSE RACING.
I worked in the
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Vital Statistics |
| May LSP |
(20.68) |
| May ROI |
-41% |
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May Strike Rate |
17 % |
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 Performance
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3:20 Southwell
3:20 Southwell
23/05 15:20
Hopefully we won't get any NR's for this 8 runner maiden, which will give the each way backers a chance of getting 2nd or 3rd behind the short priced Fav.
Although making his debut on the fibresand, will put Kalicamix at a disadvantage from those that have already had some racecourse experience, he still looks capable of a big run.
Cost £30,000 Guineas as a yearling and hails from a yard that has an excellent record with their 2yo's on the fibresand, so trainer Paul Cole must think him capable of acting on the track.
The Cole yard has had a lean time of it lately on turf, with his worst ever season last year and still to get off the mark for 2012 on turf, his fortunes on the AW have also taken a downward spiral in the last couple of years, although the signs for this year do look a lot brighter within the past month.
The yard has it's least amount of AW runners at Southwell, in particular with their 2yo's but they do have their best success rate here, especially with the juvenile brigade, sending out 18 runners and recording 7 wins, 4 seconds and 3 thirds, with juveniles making their debut on the fibresand the yard have sent out 2 wins from 4.
At the price on offer and given the yards record at the track with 2yo's, should be worth an each way shot despite the lack of a recent run and it will be interesting to see if there is any move in the market for the Cole 2yo.
5:30 Lingfield
5:30 Lingfield
23/05 17:30
Andrew balding's PERFECT MISSION looks to have a good chance to get back into the winners enclosure in the final race at Lingfield, run on the polytrack.
Hasn't been seen out since twice running close 3rd back in January of this year, both races coming within the space of 6 days, given a break since but has run well fresh in the past.
Showed a glimmer of form in 3 runs as a 2yo and ran well on his first start as a 3yo, in handicap company on turf, running 2nd to Chilworth Lad, although in receipt of plenty of weight, still a good effort considering the winner went on to score 3 times, including twice in Listed company.
After failing to improve on that run during the summer turf season, spent the winter campaign on the AW and showed a liking for the polytrack, finished runner up to the well thought of Ocean Bay, who was long odds on Fav, the front two were well clear of the 3rd, then followed up by winning a modest maiden in good style, when odds on Fav himself.
Then had those two runs in handicap company, when finishing 3rd twice, having had another break, the chances are that he could have improved again and having already shown he can go well fresh, looks a worthy candidate from an in form stable.
5:45 Chepstow
5:45 Chepstow
23/05 17:45
You know things are bad, when the Fav for this 12f flat race is a winning chaser, who had half a dozen runs on the flat in his younger days for Ron Harris, with a best place finish being 7th of 13.
Oak Leaves isn't a strong selection as this 5yo mare is still a maiden after 27 attempts, including 3 most recent runs over hurdles.
She has finished 2nd here twice over 12f, both times losing out in a photo finish.
Oak Leaves last ran on the flat during the summer of 2011 but a recent run over hurdles last month, should mean she should be fit enough for her return to the level.
Trainer Nikki Evans doesn't have that many runners on the flat but managed to get 3 wins and 3 placed from just 12 runs last year.
Jockey David Probert is reunited with this mare, having previously ridden the mare half a dozen times and been placed twice.
2:45 Nottingham
2:45 Nottingham
22/05 14:45
One of the older sprinters in this race, DIVERTIMENTI, makes a quick re-appearance after getting well beaten at Ripon a couple of days ago.
I'd ignore his latest run however as the rain softened ground was against him, this old boy is far better on fast ground and with the ground drying up, he should have perfect conditions today.
Drawn high, which will help this pace pusher, as he should be able to get onto the stands side rail in his attempt to make all the running.
Has run 4 times at the track, once on G/S when unplaced, the other 3 runs on fast ground have seen him win once and finish runner up in the other two races here, including one where he missed the break.
Divertimenti Win nap @ 15
LOST
5:10 Redcar
5:10 Redcar
21/05 17:10
This looks quite an open and competitive handicap for the grade and it may pay to take a chance with the Richard Fahey trained Divine Success.
He is half brother to Faheys very good sprint handicapper, Quest for Success, unfortunately this one hasn't shown the same natural speed of his half brother.
Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs in sprints as a 2yo, upped to a mile on his handicap debut as a 2yo but again failed to show any sparkle.
Had two runs so far this year, over a mile and 7.5f and on both runs, looked to get outpaced when the pace quickened at the business end of the race but was staying on for pressure near the finish, on his latest run was also backed into Fav.
He is now stepping up in trip to 10f, which could bring about the required improvement, as he is also half brother to Blazing the Trail, who was placed a number of times at this trip and his sole success came on the AW over 10f.
Divine Success Win @ 13
LOST
3:40 Ripon
3:40 Ripon
20/05 15:40
DUNNO is having his first run for Dandy Nicholls, after the trainer paid £25,000 for him at the sales last September, bought out of the Clive Cox yard for who the gelding won 5 races, 4 of which came at what seemed to be his favourite track Sandown.
Three of his wins came on G/S, also placed on soft ground, having run 3 times on soft ground and finished runner up twice, so the going at Ripon doesn't look to be an issue, Dunno is also having his first outing of the season, rather than a negative, it may be more of a positive as he tends to run well fresh.
Last season for Cox, finished close up 4th on seasonal debut and followed that up a month later winning at Sandown, then had 3 below par runs before going to the sales, the handicapper isn't taking any chances with him, only dropped him 3lb in total for those poor efforts.
Dandy Nicholls may be keeping his new recruit to contest northern handicaps this year, where the competition may not be as strong as Dunno's usual tracks, mainly been racing at the likes of Goodwood, Ascot and Sandown.
The Nicholls yard still not firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, altough they have had a couple of recent winners, its probably just a matter of time before the yard starts knocking out a few winners.
2:30 Newbury
2:30 Newbury
19/05 14:30
Highly tried after winning his maiden, showed best form last summer when running 2nd in similar big sprint handicap at Newmarket.
Had his first start of this season in another Listed race, finished well behind the winner but should be a lot straighter with that run under his belt.
A repeat of his Newmarket run, now he's back into handicap company could see him go close.
Trainer/Jockey combo of Beckett and Crowley have a good record together at Newbury, having a 21% strike rate here with 8 wins from 38 runs.
5:15 Thirsk
5:15 Thirsk
19/05 17:15
Seventh Sign only just missed out on the each way money last time out, when staying on at the finish to snatch 4th place, only a neck behind the 3rd placed finisher.
No match for the odds on Fav that day and has to contend with another likely odds on Fav again today.
This £1/4 million yearling has a high price tag to repay but judged on his first two runs, he looked more like a donkey off Blackpool beach, hopefully those two runs will have given him a decent education, as he has looked clueless in his first two runs.
Stayed on well on his latest run over todays C/D on much softer ground, after almost walking out of the stalls, the jockey was hard at work on the colt from the very beginning of the 12f trip.
I'll give him another chance today, to redeem himself and if those two runs have taught him how to race properly, he might just start repaying some of his hefty price tag.
Seventh Sign Win @ SP
LOST
4:05 Thirsk
4:05 Thirsk
19/05 16:05
The majority of Dandy Nicholl's runners have been finishing nearer last than first in recent weeks but the yard sent out a couple of winners in the past 5 days, still early days but it may be a sign that the fortunes of the Nicholls camp may be about to change.
The old boy TAX FREE, has run twice this season, running fairly well in both runs, he could really do with the handicapper giving him a bit of leeway but Tax Free usually gives his all and although only won once in the past 3 years, in the main he never finishes that far off the leaders, so the handicapper hasn't released his grip that much.
Last year started off the season with a rating around the 100 mark, he's now 7lb lower in the weights, hopefully that will be enough to enable him to get back into winning ways.
The drying ground should be in his favour also, although he has won on G/S, most of his wins have come on faster ground, which makes his first two runs of this year a bit more encouraging, likely to have needed his first start of the season and his most recent run at Chester, was on soft ground.
7:25 Hamilton
7:25 Hamilton
18/05 19:25
Mangham may not be the most consistent performer around nowadays but at his peak a few years ago, was rated in the mid 90's.
Conditions tonight at Hamilton should suit this son of Montjeu, having already proven he likes a bit of cut in the ground, with 3 of his 4 wins coming on G/S or soft ground.
He managed to get a win on the board last year, first time for almost 3 years, when winning a similar handicap at Musselburgh on G/S.
Had his first start of the season last month, missed the break that day and was always behind, sure to come on for that run as last year he ran a similar race first time up, before finishing 3rd on his second outing of the year, a race in which he came in for some support in the market and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off a lot shorter than the 12-1 currently on offer.
Mangham Win nap @ 13
LOST
2:10 Salisbury
2:10 Salisbury
17/05 14:10
Very competitive looking fillies handicap, in which most are fairly lightly raced and could be open to plenty of improvement.
May pay to take a chance with Michael Bells filly, Candycakes, she showed plenty of promise on her two runs as a 2yo, giving the impression, she would be better over a longer trip.
Both those runs were in good looking Newmarket maidens, where she finished close up 4th & 5th, quite a few that finished ahead of her in those two maidens, have gone on to run well in Listed company.
Candycakes made her seasonal debut on the AW last month, where she ran well to finish 2nd, after a slow start, the filly that finished 3rd in that race, went on to finish runner up, to todays Fav, Shestheman on subsequent start, a line through that filly shows that the selection needs to make up a length on the Fav and gets a 5lb pull in the weights, having said that, either of the two fillies could easily improve a bundle on their first race of the year but at the prices, Candycakes looks the better value at an each way price.
2:30 York
2:30 York
17/05 14:30
The Dante Stakes at York is probably one of the better trials for the Epsom Derby and this years Dante is fascinating in more ways than one.
Aidan O'Brien looks to have the Derby already sewn up, with Camelot a very short priced Fav, after his 2,000 Guineas win.
Two of todays runners finished around 6 lengths behind Camelot in the Guinea's and although I'd be surprised to see either of those two good enough to win this, it will be interesting to see how the form of that Classic stands up.
The front two in the market are both colts by Manduro and both have run well in two races so far as 2yo's, Bonfire is currently around 10-1 2nd Fav for the Derby, with Mandean one of many priced around the 16-1 mark, both will be putting their Derby prospects on the line today, a win by either, will no doubt halve their price for Epsom but I still remain to be convinced, mainly down to their sire Manduro, who although a very decent French trained performer, as a sire, he hasn't as yet, proved himself over here, although its still early days for the sire, as he is just in his 2nd season, the initial signs aren't great but a win today from one of his two runners, will no doubt boost the sire's prominence.
Aidan O'Brien saddles Ernest Hemingway, currently around 25-1 for the Derby and this O'Brien colt has taken the somewhat unusual route, of making his debut on the AW at Dundalk. A well bred colt by Galileo out of a mare that won a Lingfield Oaks trial, he could project himself up to 2nd Fav for the Derby if he manages to win this on only his 2nd run.
Although his win on the AW may look a bit of an odd introduction, the manner of his victory was impressive, not only making all his own running and barely coming off the bridle, he also did it in a good time, he should improve a great deal for that frst run, which was more like having a racecourse gallop.
O'Brien will no doubt want to see a decent run from Ernest Hemmingway, not only to give him more ammunition for the Classics ahead but it would also give him a good gauge as to how good Camelot rates, against his nearest Derby rivals, betting wise.
Ernest Hemingway Win @ 5.5
LOST
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