Fenella Fudge Win

8:30 Kempton

22/05 20:30

This looks a very open even and one where I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger priced winner. Nothing stands out as a good chance and I can't see why Suacy Buck is out @15's and Diplomatic the favourtie, however Fenella Fudge is the interesting one for me. It is having its first outing of the season after just the solitary win as a 3yo and although it has been placed in only 1 of its 4 all weather runs the last run at Kempton in November is very promising. It was beaten in to 4th but the winner won well nto, the second won 2 of its next 3 and 3rd was 2nd on its next outing. 5th won twice and placed twice in its next 5 while 8th and Bellinsky who pulled up both finished first nto as well. It looks to have been a pretty decent race on those figures and the mark of 64 with another winter on its back looks to be a workable one. Its reappearance last year after a similar absence saw it finish second to a very well weighted Ellison Horse and if it can overcome the absence tonight should be very close.

30

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0

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200

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Molde Draw

Sandnes Ulf v Molde

20/05 17:00

Molde have made some decent starts to away games this year and have conceded just the one goal in the first half this year which was in their first away game at the tough Haugesand. They have also scored a misleading 4 first half goals after scoring 3 within 10 minutes at rock bottom Staebek but I still think they have enough to put the pressure on newly promoted Sandnes early on. They led Songdal early on and lost at the end of April and their away form looks pretty sketchy with just the Staebek win to go with 3 losses. Sandnes are coping admirably on their first season in the top flight and have had 3 decent draws to go with 2 more straightforward wins from their 5 home games. I think that Molde will exert their dominance early on and perhaps get a goal up but they have not been solid away from home this year and with the Solksjaer story about leaving for Villa appearing today Sandnes may just be able to get back in to this game.

25

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50

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Luisant Win

3:05 Navan

20/05 15:05

Luisant doesn't appear the easiest to win with after just 2 wins from 33 starts on the turf, however it does have 16 places. In its 8 runs over 5 furlongs it has only finished out of the placings once, which was its first attempt over the distance in 2009 at Dundalk. It has a distinguished list of horses it has been beaten by over 5f including Nunthorpe and Temple Stakes winner Sole Power and the ever reliable Invincible Ash. Luisant has dropped rapidly in the weights over the last and a bit, starting off the 2011 season on 109 and falling down this season in its first 2 runs to 84. Its 2nd lto, when it really showed some ability of old, was really only beaten by the rail run of Gordon Lord Byron after showing some real determination and I think that things may have clicked into place again there and this tough sprinter will start to show its real side and win this lower grade race.

21

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500

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Meandmyshadow Win

5:10 Ripon

20/05 17:10

A 5f contest at Ripon and one that appears to have plenty of pace in the race. I like the chances of Meandmyshadow though here. I think in the soft ground and the amount of pace in this race you are going to need to be able to last 6f out here otherwise this could open up for a hold up horse off the pace. The fact that this is such a well known pace bias suggests though that one of the leading 4 or 5 will win this and with Meandmyshadow able to handle the softer ground and having won at Ripon over 6f I think it has a great chance today. It has blown the winter cobwebs off with its run in 5th at Thirsk over 6f on the soft and will surely come on for that run. It has a favourable draw 1 out from the far rail which everyone seems to head towards and should not be found wanting for pace or stamina.

50

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500

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Munich Win

Bayern Munich v Chelsea

19/05 19:45

Bayern have won 14 of their last 16 games in the Champions league at home and although they won't effectively be the home team tonight the advantage of playing on your own ground in the final is massive. Only Inter have won in Munich in the last 3 years despite having top teams from Italy, France, Spain and both Manchester clubs visit and I don't think Chelsea will have enough. I don't think Di Matteo is some tactical genius, the change has come from the bitterness that was present when AVB was in charge and the ease in that has certainly helped the club. They were very lucky to have got past Barcelona who could and should have won both legs by at least 4. Chelsea have won just 2 of their last nine away from home in Europe and although this is the final it is still away from fortress Stamford Bridge. In the premiership they only beat relegated Wolves, Blackburn and Bolton as well as strugglers Villa and Sunderland while Newcastle seemed to be their only decent away result. They did manage draws at Spurs and Arsenal but were also held by Norwich, Swansea, Wigan, Stoke and Fulham.
They will also be without 4 players tonight with Terry, Ramires, Meireles and Ivanovic all suspended and with Cahill and Luiz both not 100% fit it is going to be a tough ask. Bayern do also have suspension problems but you would think they can cope with their suspensions more. I think it will be a tight match but Bayern should be winning this.

27

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100

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Hazelrigg Win

5:45 Thirsk

19/05 17:45

This is not the most straightforward horse to win with having won just 4 of 38 starts on turf but I think that things may be falling just about right for it tonight. It is still off a nice weight and also has a 5lb claim today which I am sure will be told to just get on the pace and stay up on the rail. As mentioned it has a good draw of just 1 out from the rail and should make good use of it with its early pace. 3 of its 4 wins have come on good or good - soft ground which is what it is today at Thirsk and the drop in grade will make this a much easier race for it today. There are dangers but most are exposed and this should be a race it can win. It ran a decent effort at Beverley on the soft when 4th and unfavoured by the draw followed by a decent effort when 9th at York recently but didn't get the clearest of runs and was snatched up. I would expect to see a much better effort today especially so as a run within 11 days often sees its best efforts with only 3 of 13 runs being out of the places.

32

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0

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500

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Numide Win

3:45 Bangor

19/05 15:45

Numide is worth a chance here trying its hand at chasing again. It went off favourite 11 days ago at Exeter when finishing 3rd. It found its way through the field after being held up but just didn't have the pace of the winner so the extra distance today will help. It travels really well but doesn't always find too much but with only 11'5 to carry and a good 20lbs below what it ran well off last year over hurdles I think it has more to offer than the last race. There are a few of the horses here having their first go chasing after mediocre hurdling careers and there may be some that are built for this that could trouble my selection but I am going to stick with the horse who has run well at a level well above this.

17

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0

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100

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Bathwick Bear Win

4:05 Thirsk

19/05 16:05

Bathwick Bear will be taking my money here with the hope that it is back to its better form. After its first 2 wins it has only won 1 more race which was a listed race at Ripon but it has now seen its OR drop from 101 where it ran some decent races through 2011 to just 87 today after 3 disappointing efforts on ground softer than it would like. With Cheveton next to the very outside there is sure to be some pace to follow here and it would seem the high draw is where the winner will come from with Excel Bolt, Magical Macey and Lui Rei also drawn high. Thirsk does have a well known bias so the very high is where you need to be and that may well have seen the desertions from stalls 1,2 4 and 5 already.

44

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100

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Tromso Win

Tromso v Viking FK

20/05 17:00

Tromso finished runner up to Molde in the league last year mainly on the back of a fantastic home record where they lost just once and had 3 draws to go with their 11 wins. They have started off this season in a similar way with 4 wins and a draw from their 5 games conceding just the 2 goals. They played a couple of the easier teams and have scored on average 2 a game but I can see this continuing against a team who will be tight to beat but ultimately should be beat. Tromso didn't have the greatest record in the H2H's between the 2 but as ascendancy has switched Tromso has fared a lot better. They have won at home in the last 2 years and also had a draw at Viking, compared to the 4 losses they had seen in the previous 2 years. It should be tight but I would expect a Tromso win.

45

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Win

Result

75

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Draw

Fredrikstad v Stromsgodset

19/05 15:00

I like to do the correct scores on Stromsgodset but with the draw in my opinion the most likely result I think this represents better value than the 1-1 I think it will be which is not even double this price. Stromsgodset only had 3 x 1-1's last year from their 6 draws with 2-2 appearing twice and 0-0 just the once and with their defence tightening up a little this year the draw seems to be the safer option especially so as Fredrickstad could score and concede a few. The H2h between the two shows that 6 of the 8 recent matches between the 2 have gone to the home side with no away wins. However just at Fredrickstad we have 2 narrow wins with 2 draws and looking at their respective form I can see another draw today.

64

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0

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75

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Shavansky Win

9:20 Kempton

15/05 21:20

If this horse still retains the ability then it should be going very close tonight. It seems to have been overlooked by the bookies amidst the Ellison, Stoute and Hannon runners. Obviously all 3 will be rated because of their stables but the one horse that looks to be well treated on its best form is Shavansky from the unfashionable Millman stable. It has been racing in a lot better contests over the last year and drops down in class to compete tonight. It won off 89 last year and placed off 94 so tonight's rating of 82 should not provide a problem. It hasn't raced at Kempton before but has won at Lingfield on one of its 3 previous artificial runs. It doesn't have the best draw but may just be able to sit off the pace and time its run well.

54

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100

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Bahr Nothing

5:20 Hereford

15/05 17:20

I will give this a run with it back down to a mark it has won off before and with the Vaughan stable finally in form. When visiting the stable I made note that Vaughan thought that this horse could win some lesser races and was a lot better than it was showing while Johnson didn't seem to think much of it despite having won on it and ridden it on all its best efforts. It ran well in the summer last year and with the Vaughan stable being in stinking form over January, February and March its runs in better company can be forgiven. Dropped back down in grade, down to a weight it has won previously off, with the stable in form and Johnson back on board it seems to have a lot going for it today and I do fancy it to win well.

41

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0

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200

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