4:55 Kempton

22/01 16:55

having backed this one a few times it was a nice surprise to see him win a couple of times recently - backed him at 14/1 when winning last time out and he was pulled last wk so perhaps he's just right for today

has 6 career wins and all here so loves the track - last time out was a really impressive wina nd was easing when crossign the line so that is strong form for today despite the 6lb rise; obvious weight reverse with torres del paine from that race but could well be the same result as the latter doesnt seem to like grabbing hold of races and winning them...

belinsky will presumably be the fav and looks strong and is well weighted but like the recent half dozen runs of vhujon and is obviously in a great run of form and this should be another good chance for a win at ok odds

Man City v Tottenham

22/01 13:30

blogged about city winning and also under 2.5 goals etc etc

HT draw for me and probably 0-0 so i expect any goals to come in the second half...

therefore this looks a decent bet

could go horribly wrong of course! but stats show recent form is unders generally (spurs last 7 have been under 2.5) and a tight game is sually the way with teams at the top at this stage of the seaosn

highest-scoring half > 2nd at 11/10 (stan james) looks good as I like the idea of 0-0 HT and then a goal in the 2nd minimum

Man City v Tottenham

22/01 13:30

blogged about this game already and can see a HT draw an dperhaps 1-0 city win.. spurs may well maange to hold on and get a point but not too confident

thus, I expect city to sneak a 1-0 win with a late goal - i can see spurs trying to nullify them and also city being cagey as they wont want another defeat

I expect a HT draw and probably goalless at 45mins and then a more spirited 2nd half from both teams > stats show city dont concede in the first half..at all!

city to score in the 2nd half and there's always a chance spurs could rise to the occasion and grab an equalizer and especially with bale on the rampage but perhaps 1-1 at best for them

suggested bets >

HT draw @ 13/10 (bet 365) is good value and HT/FT of draw/city at 9/2 might be worth a flutter

Man City v Tottenham

22/01 13:30

CITY v SPURS

expect city to nick this by a goal today

city have wobbled a bit recently by their very high standards they have set this season and have lost a few games recently (including two home cup defeats albeit utd and liverpool) but their home form stretches back to 15 consecutive wins now which is extremely impressive

so, the history favours spurs overall but the recent history favours the home team here and i will go with that although it looks obvious -s purs have a history of flattering to deceive and whilst they have done brilliantly this year this may be a step too far

Man City v Tottenham

22/01 13:30

CITY v SPURS

unders for me here as although both have scored plenty this season, the recent form has indicated that they are tightenign up and scoring fewer an dbeing such a big game I can seefew chances and some nerves playign a part today

spurs have been under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches which shows they have tightened up a bit and also stopped scoring so freely - again this points towards a low scoring game unless they really surprise and go hell-for-leather which I doubt

city have had some big games and have popped in 31 in their 10 home league games... but also have had a few 1-0s recently too so I expect this one ot be unders and am happy to take the odds here above evens

Man City v Tottenham

22/01 13:30

CITY v SPURS

for years this has been one of my fav fixtures as my team, THFC have often enjoyed good results at (previously) maine road etc... some teams seem to have favourite grounds and this was probably the happiest hunting ground for tottenham

in the EPL, they have played 13 times at city's home ground and spur shave won a huge 9 times; 3 city wins and 2 draws also - spurs also won here in the league cup in 2007 by 2-0

so this is traditionally a really strong game for spurs; however, this is a different city now and with a home record of 10-0-0 this season then it's going to be a tough old game and a struggle for harry's boys to collect the 3pts this year

they have a chance if they attack as they have profited from taking the game to teams away from home this season and have picked up 6 wins

but! they have been against generally lower-ranked teams - they have got the knack of polishing off teams they 'should' beat rather than struggle and the 2 away defeats have been at man utd on their opening day and a strong home team in stoke; wins have been at wigan, wolves, norwich, wba, fulham and blackburn

so if we ignore the opening defeat at utd and the home thrashing a few days later by man city as spurs didn't have their usual team out (very lightweight in midfield especially) then they have (since then) had a great record and picked up a lot of wins and got themselves into contention at the top of the league

city have wobbled a bit recently by their very high standards this season and have lost a few games recently (including two home cup defeats albeit utd and liverpool) but their home form stretches back to 15 consecutive wins now which is extremely formidable

so, the history favours spurs overall but the recent history favours the home team

this season, city would be strong favs based upon their terrific home form; they have won all 10 games whilst scoring 31 goals and conceding just 4 - they haven't yet conceded a goal in the first half at home and do tend to score themselves more as the game moves on to the latter stages

spurs have scored in their last 20 league games which is rare indeed and have managed 18 goals away from home too - they also have been drawing in half their away games at HT so that's another pointer towards the HT draw perhaps

spurs have been under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches which shows they have tightened up a bit and also stopped scoring so freely - again this points towards a low scoring game unless they really surprise and go hell-for-leather which I doubt

regarding the title, this is a game spurs need to avoid defeat in mainly - city picking up 3 more pts would put them a healthy distance ahead and spurs would struggle to catch them so they really need to try and nick a point at best for me although a win would obviously be superb for them

as both have scored a lot of goals it would look to be high scoring but recent games point otherwise and being a battle of top teams it will no doubt be close - the big problem for spurs is more likely to be the team news > city are missing kompany still but welcome back toure and richards; spurs however are missing king still which is a massive blow as he has been the main reason they have done so well this season

modric bale and co get the plaudits but king has marshalled the defence superbly and when he doesn't play the results are massively worse for spurs s the stats show

adebayor skips this too due to his loan deal so spurs are suddenly looking a bit weaker to me

thus, I expect city to sneak a 1-0 win with a late goal - i can see spurs trying to nullify them and also city being cagey as they wont want another defeat

I expect a HT draw and probably goalless at 45mins and then a more spirited 2nd half from both teams

city to score in the 2nd half and there's always a chance spurs could rise to the occasion and grab an equalizer and especially with bale on the rampage but perhaps 1-1 at best for them

suggested bets >

under 2.5 goals @ 43/40 (bet 365) > this looks reasonable odds indeed and a decent shout

HT draw @ 13/10 (bet 365) is good value and HT/FT of draw/city at 9/2 might be worth a flutter

city to win @ 1.91 or 19/20 (will hill)

highest-scoring half > 2nd at 11/10 (stan james) looks good as I like the idea of 0-0 HT and then a goal in the 2nd minimum

* corner market may be worth a look as spurs average nearly 13 in total in their away games

** for those who like contrary bets then there is good value in backing spurs, spur son the AH, over 3.5 and so on - it could be a daft result as does happen sometimes but I'm going with the boring options today!

Humana Challenge

22/01 16:40

wasnt sure whether to take michael thompson or chris kirk, or perhaps bud cauley as my 5th pick here for this event

will go with kirk as he is another player who seems to play well on these course types so will give him a back this week...

decent player and one who is little biut under the radar still despite picking up his first tour win last year

quite a few of these young guns have a win early on and will be looking to progress and become multiple tour winners

kirk did have a bit of a lapse after that win and his form/results werent great but has started well with a good solid 7th last wk

could go well here at good odds as has the ability and should enjoy the course

Humana Challenge

22/01 16:40

like these big odds for sunghoon kang here > has played a few times on tour and done ok and managed a few top 10 finishes

latter half of last yr saw him have top5 top 10 and 3 top 15 results in last 9 events, not bad going

also seems to really do well in these events with that 3rd in the childrens miracle network classic late last yr

played a few times on the nationwide tour last yr and on first start almost won so he really has done well for a lower ranked player and could sneak in here at terrific odds, a place would pay 60/1 plus!!

good sneaky outside shout for me

Humana Challenge

22/01 16:40

kyle stanley ios another of the very good young golfers that are around and doing so well these days (in the post micko tiger era to an extent lol)

he played well last yr on the main tour and is looking to notch a win soon I feel - came very close last yr when just missing out to steve stricker and if he continues the good form he can pick up an event like this

hit sit a long way and thus leaves short irons in to the pin so has the ability and chances to go low - needs to sink more short putts as that is a slight weakness for him - if he can start popping those in then he will socre low regularly and that means beign in contention more and then wins will come

decent chance this week at good odds

Humana Challenge

22/01 16:40

talented player is kevin na and one who threatened for a long time to win but usually found a way to not an dlose his temper at the same time too

very good putter and now he has managed to crack a pga win (justin timberland event late last yr) he may well relax a bit more and find it easier to win number 2

also has a good record in these sort of events and they seem to suit some and not others for sure

thus he seems a decent price and he can go low so bound to score pretty well here as this is a bit of a birdiefest job

decent each way cshout at these odds

Humana Challenge

22/01 16:40

bill haas is a terrific young man, extremely popular and likeable and a top top golfer too- winne rof over $11m when he wont he fedex cup last yr of course... also has a particularly good record in this event and as on eof the young guns currently taking over the golfing tours he can make a spirited effort to win this again

dominated it in the last 2 yrs by winning and almost winning might be a big ask to go a nd win again but he is more than capable..

obviously likes the format of these proams and as such a relaxed chap he has the mental strength to handle the palaver of this 'show'

decent win bet for me at these odds

Sony Open

15/01 12:00

SABBATINI > horses for courses as Rory has twice been runner-up here in recent years and does seem to play well in Hawaii; managed to make the top 10 last week despite a 2 shot penalty for being tardy to the tee in round 2..

currently 38 on betfair and backing him as he does seem to play well on certain courses and is always capable of going really low which may be possible here if the wind drops

Defending champion is Mark Wilson and there are a few here who have very good records in this event > Stricker has a 3rd and two 4ths in last 4 yrs here, C Howell III has a great record and Chad Campbell also does well here.. SABBA has a very good record too hence the bet this week

Choi is a previous winner and is in excellent form - also finished last week with a 65 so he is my main pick for this