8:00 Kempton

8:00 Kempton

22/05 20:00

Comfortable winner last time out and the handicapper has responded with a 10lb increase for an eased 4 length win. Should improve for that first run of the season and should have a bit more to come even in a harder race. The stables in great form boasting a 22% strike rate in 2012. Mark Johnston has had 4 winners from 11 runs with the 3 year olds he has sent to this track this season and has a general 26% strike rate on all weather surfaces this year.

17

Views

0

Lose

Result

50

Profit/Loss

7:45 Ludlow

7:45 Ludlow

17/05 19:45

A winner for me on the selections thread two starts ago, I had written regarding I thought this horse had not yet encountered his best conditions which should be a strong 3 mile trip on genuine good ground. He got that on that day and won easily by 7 lengths putting the race to bed 2 fences out. Took a step up in class last month at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle
on ground was pushed along before 4 out when making a blunder and was pulled up after that. AP McCoy booked gives me some confidence as to his chances today and I think conditions are right for him to run a good race.

27

Views

0

Lose

Result

150

Profit/Loss

7:35 Newmarket

7:35 Newmarket

17/05 19:35

Had two runs over 7 furlongs as a juvenile. Couldn't get a clear passage on debut and never troubled the leaders as such. The winner of that lost by less than a length in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn next time out, before finishing 2nd in the 1,000 Guineas. A winner and a decent placer in this sphere have also come from the horses in front that day. Three winners have also come from the 4 horses who finished in front of her on her second and final start with the winner not having won but ran two credible 4ths in Class 3 and Class 2 respectively so the form in this sphere is fairly solid. Dam was a Listed placed sprinter over 6 furlongs but also ran creditably in a Listed 10 furlong race at Newmarket when she was 3. Sired by Teofilo out of the Galileo lineage so should be capable of better over further and judging by her keeping on both times over 7 furlongs I'd say she can handle the step up in trip today.

26

Views

0

Lose

Result

100

Profit/Loss

6:05 Ludlow

6:05 Ludlow

17/05 18:05

Was sold for 430,000 euros as a yearling in Germany. Ran in a couple of hot flat races as a juvenile before having over a year off when making his reappearance over in France and won two and finished runner up in the other three of his 5 races over there in that season. Another year off the track before making his rules debut and was always going to be given time to progress and make no mistake when favourite on handicap debut not pushed in the slightest to win by 5 lengths at a canter. Better ground shouldn't be an issue and only under a 7lbs penalty he should be plenty better than this mark. Champion jockey McCoy rides him again and it would be surprising to see this one get beat here.

23

Views

0

Void

Result

0

Profit/Loss

5:55 Newmarket

5:55 Newmarket

17/05 17:55

Makes her first start as a 3 year old today under the ride of Richard Hughes who is the only jockey to have won on her in 5 starts as a juvenile. She needed the run on debut, out in the rear and never getting in to the race. The newly gained experience told on her second start when upped to 7 furlongs produced a decent 2nd finishing strongly. Probably didn't have the speed of some of her rivals on 3rd start over 8 furlongs and didn't pick up when the field did but stayed fairly well not asked for a great deal once beaten. Today's jockey Richard Hughes then gave her a great ride to lose her maiden tag on Kempton's all weather surface over 7 furlongs. Made all and judged the pace of the race perfectly always having enough in hand to win with a bit of ease in the end. She end the season with a below par effort in her handicap debut not really picking up when asked to come home having not been pushed once beaten again. She takes a step up in trip today to 1m2f and thats well within her grasp, being related to three black type performers over this trip and further. Should definitely have more to come over this trip as she had been staying on at the end of all her races. Richard Hughes rides her again which is always a bonus.

23

Views

0

Lose

Result

150

Profit/Loss

2:10 Salisbury

2:10 Salisbury

17/05 14:10

A winner last time out travelling nicely and being push on 2f out. Only required a couple of hits with the whip when challenging just to pick up a little extra and asserted well to win with a fair bit in hand. Faces a step up in trip today to 10 furlongs and breeding suggests it won't be an issue with Dam a winner over 12 furlongs, Dam's half-brother Barbican a winner over 14 furlongs and Dam's half-sister The Faraway Tree a winner over 10 furlongs (bred with a lot more emphasis on speed). Trainer Sylvester Kirk already thought she was capable of running her mark into the 80's, and off a mark of 78 she's well handicapped with the potential for improvement over further.

26

Views

0

Lose

Result

100

Profit/Loss

3:35 York

3:35 York

16/05 15:35

Has won his last two races at this class and is now just 3lbs higher than when doing so for the last time. Has mainly contested either stronger races than this on the flat in Class 2 and Class 3 or been running over hurdles in recent years, and last year's Class 4 which he won was probably more a prep race on his reappearance. Hasn't been dropped down to this distance since October 2008 but runs 14 and 16 furlongs fairly strongly so he may just have the speed to keep the pace and will definitely have the stamina to be staying at the end of the race. Would prefer the ground a little drier but has placed on Good-to-Soft going here so should be overly inconvenienced by it. Trainer's in good form and opts for apprentice jockey Michael O'Connell who has a 31% strike rate for the yard this year.

31

Views

0

Lose

Result

100

Profit/Loss

2:00 York

2:00 York

16/05 14:00

A fairly lightly raced 4 year old from the John Quinn stable who won his first two starts as a juvenile including a Listed 5f before finishing his first season with a 3rd in a Group 2 gaining black type status with form figures of 1-1-3. Didn't get away well on reappearance in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and came home in last some 8 lengths off the pace, but that was a strong field that day. Stepped up next time out over todays Course and Distance in a decent handicap and finished 6th under 3 lengths behind the winner. Another half decent showing followed under the ride of claimer jockey Dale Swift to try and the edge of the weight. Dropped down in class at Doncaster and finished 3rd with good subsequent form shown in front and behind from that race and was put away for the season. An easy time on reappearance in a Warwick Class 3 on Soft ground and was raised just 2lbs for that. Contested a decent Listed race last time out won by Mayson who contests a Group 2 later in the card after winning a Group 3 after that race.

John Quinn's having his best season in a long time as it stands so far and his 21% turf strike rate is very good. His older horses have been running very well so far and it's of note when he links up with jockey Tom Queally as they have partnered 3 winners from just 8 runs, with all 3 being 4yo+.

I'm inclined to think the horse bounced a little last time out with only 10 days between his reappearance and the race and has been given a little more recuperation. Ground isn't an issue, and I believe the mark is still workable.

31

Views

0

Lose

Result

100

Profit/Loss

4:10 Wincanton

4:10 Wincanton

15/05 16:10

For me, Perfectly Willing is better value having proven he can stay the trip last time out. Didn't really get his act together on the Pointing scene and indeed so pulled up on his rules debut. A solid performance last time out behind a now 109 rated rival who has had plenty of experience out on the courses already is encouraging and there should be more to come from him with experience and hopefully jumps a little better.

There looks to be a good 20lbs difference in between the abilities of these two, but I think over this trip it won't be that much and can't justify the current prices.

50

Views

0

Lose

Result

500

Profit/Loss

4:10 Wincanton

4:10 Wincanton

15/05 16:10

On official ratings Flaming George stands out easily. A decent 2nd to Hunt Ball when giving 5lbs away looks very good considering that horse is now officially rated 37lbs higher. Hunt Ball was very sloppy that day putting in a few mistakes and getting boxed in. In the end I think obviously Hunt Ball has plenty more to come and won going away not under a great deal of pressure whereas Flaming George was all out.

The step up in trip is a negative for me. He doesn't get a great deal of stamina from his Dam, and full brother was poor. On the 3 races he has completed over 20 or 21 furlongs he hasn't really given the impression he will stay a great deal further and todays extra 6 furlongs could well be beyond him.

29

Views

0

Lose

Result

500

Profit/Loss

2:00 Beverley

2:00 Beverley

15/05 14:00

I've struggled to find the value in the shorter prices horses, with a couple already raced not having the greatest form and from the debutants I feel you could make a case for 4 or 5 being readied but the prices are too short.

Nigel Tinkler probably hasn't had such a well bred horse in his hands as this one for a while. His strike rate has generally been increasing over the last few years and his juveniles have generally kept up with that trend and he managed a 16% strike rate with his 2yo last year.

Strasbourg Place is a full sister to Prolific (aka Able Speed) who won his debut maiden and before a couple of placed Group 2 performances precluded him winning the Group 2 Richmond Stakes as a 2yo. Also a half-sister to Listed class juvenile Deal Breaker, whilst Dam is a half-sister to Royal Lodge winner Atlantis Prince.

I've struggled to find the value in the shorter prices horses, with a couple already raced not having the greatest form and from the debutants I feel you could make a case for 4 or 5 being readied but the prices are too short.

54

Views

0

Lose

Result

500

Profit/Loss

3:40 Haydock

3:40 Haydock

12/05 15:40

Ruler Of All was purchased into the Tim Vaughan yard after a couple of eye catching wins in Ireland in the Spring last year. A flat horse at 2 and 3, he then ran well on hurdling debut in Novemeber 2010 a solid 2nd over 19 furlongs on soft ground travelling well all the way. Was sent back out in January after a winter break and over a shorter trip put his strong travelling style to good use taking up the running 3 out and winning eased down. His final appearance in Ireland saw him win by just a shoulder all out at the line. The rival he beat was in receipt of 7lbs plus a further 7lbs by the claimer, and on next appearance won the Irish Grand National. Third place went chasing after that race and has won all 3 starts so far. 4th finished 2nd in a decent 16 furlongs hurdle, whilst 5th was tried too highly in a Grade 3 next time out but has acquitted well in chases since. 6th won his only hurdles start since, and those 6 horses were well clear of 7th and last. I can forgive the last run in a Newbury handicap won by Celestial Halo, as clearly he wasn't right that day. Usually a strong traveller up with the pace, he was out back and never nearer before pulling up 3 flights out. He's a chasing type and should be better over fences next season but I think if he's readied today conditions will be very much in his favour and could run a big race.

36

Views

0

Lose

Result

100

Profit/Loss