|
Register Login Help |
|
|
Blogs>Zipster |
|---|
|
||||||||||||
|
May 22 3:45 Nottingham
11:21
22/05 15:45 Al Jabreiah opened her account as a three three year old last time out on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and can follow that up here today. She has now won two from four starts in her career, after a somewhat disappointing debut at Newmarket over six furlongs she was stepped up to seven furlongs for her run next time out at Brighton where she picked up her first win as a two year old in a class five maiden, She then had a break before returning last month for her first outing as a three year old which came here at Nottingham over a mile, it was also her handicap debut and she was off 68 and she finished fourth of twelve, she was held up and struggled to get a run a couple from home but then run on late. She went to Wolverhampton last time out off 68 to win over nine furlongs and this time she found room to make a run. She comes here today off 72 so she is up 4lbs on her all-weather win and her last start on the flat, she is also once again up in trip which should suit and there will be no problems with the ground, for me she will be capable of running off a 4lb higher mark and capable of landing this race. 19
Views 0
Lose
Result
250
Profit/Loss Al Jabreiah Win nap @ 4.33 LOST May 21 7:50 Leicester
10:36
21/05 19:50 Despite her big price I believe that Chandigarh has a decent chance in this race. She will be making her three year old debut today after a break of 246 days and comes here already twice a winner as a 2yo. She won a class six maiden at Bath and then a class five handicap at Folkestone off a mark of 69 and for her three year old debut she holds a mark of 77 so she is 8lbs higher than her last win but she also has Kelly in the saddle claiming 5lbs today which means only 3lbs higher than a fairly comfortable win at Folkestone two starts ago. Both wins came over six furlongs but one was on good to soft ground so today's ground should be fine, her only previous start over seven furlongs came last time out at Fairyhouse in a fairly valuable race and she is not up against that kind of quality today and I would not read too much into that run. So for me she looks ok in the handicaps with Kelly taking off 5lbs, the ground will not be a problem and I believe the trip should be fine and I can see her putting in a good performance on her return and first run as a three year old. 28
Views 0
Lose
Result
150
Profit/Loss Chandigarh Win nap @ 21 LOST May 19 8:00 Uttoxeter
10:58
19/05 20:00 Jonjo O'Neill's Wild Rhubarb has not been the most consistent of performers in the past but won well last time out at Southwell and I believe can follow that up today. He won over 25f last time out at Southwell on soft ground and was being eased down close to home for a comfortable victory on just his fourth start over hurdles and now comes here to run over three miles on good ground, this will be his first outing on good ground over hurdles but I believe that good ground will suit more than the soft ground that he won on. Making his handicap debut off a mark of 110 which does not seem to be a bad mark for his debut and McCoy remains in the saddle looking to make it two from two with this runner and that is what i believe he will achieve today. 46
Views 0
Win
Result
1,875
Profit/Loss Wild Rhubarb Win nb @ SP WON May 19 Jolly At The Handicapper
10:53
19/05 18:25 The Jolly Roger comes into this race without the handicapper penalising him for his win over course and distance last time out, he won off a mark of 94 just under a week ago and comes here off the same mark today which must put him in with a very good chance and being over the minimum trip of two miles fitness should not be a problem with just a 6 day break. Lee Edwards remains in the saddle which means once again he will be taking off a valuable three pounds today and for me if the going remains good it is difficult to see him losing this today. 27
Views 0
Win
Result
227
Profit/Loss Jolly Roger Win nap @ SP WON May 18 9:00 Newcastle
10:51
18/05 21:00 I was not going to tip this one because he was 6/4 last night but to my surprise she is now as big as 3/1 which is now big enough for me to tip! Untold Melody is one of just two three year old runners in this field and I am taking her to follow up her all-weather success here today. From three starts on the turf she has placed twice but she had to wait until her fourth starts to pick up a win when going to Southwell to win a class six maiden over six furlongs. She made her debut here at Newcastle on soft ground but that came over six furlongs whilst her other two starts on the turf both came over five furlongs and she was a lot closer to the winners then her attempt over six furlongs on her debut. She returned from her break to make her three year old debut at Southwell last time out and she won well and because of that win she is given a mark of 68 for this run here today but she does have the advantage of the three year old allowance here today, without that she may of struggled today but because of that allowance I believe that she can open her turf account here today. 50
Views 0
Lose
Result
150
Profit/Loss Untold Melody Win @ SP LOST May 18 8:35 Hamilton
10:51
18/05 20:35 Jessie’s Spirit makes her seasonal reappearance today after 224 days off the track and in my opinion can make a successful one. This will be just her fifth career start and I believe that she can get back on track today, she won a class five maiden on her debut and then went on to win a class conditions race on her second start, both came over six furlongs, the Leicester win was on good to firm whilst the Ripon win was on good to soft. Since those two wins she has gone on to finish sixth of twelve in a class two handicap and then last time out at York in a class three handicap she was fourth of twenty and within one and half lengths of the winner so a good performance. Her debut came off 85 and then she dropped 3lbs (82) for her run last time out and today she remains off 82 but is dropping down in class today. Trip and ground will suit her so I guess the main two questions are has she improved over the break and how will she return from a 224 day break, if she has shown slight improvement over the break then I still believe that will be enough to land this race, she has already beaten better than what she faces here today so for me Jessie’s Spirit is the one to be on. 29
Views 0
Void
Result
0
Profit/Loss Jessies Spirit Win nap @ 9 May 17 4:55 Salisbury
13:39
17/05 16:55 Love Tale did not show too much on her first four starts but got going at the fifth time of asking when landing a low class handicap at Leicester but failed to follow that up next time out when well behind Royal Reyah so how my first selection gets on could turn out to be a positive for this runner. She made a successful three year old debut last month when landing a class five handicap at Brighton over six furlongs and should be capable of following that up today, she won off 64 on that run and comes here today off 69 so a 5lb rise in the handicaps and remains over six furlongs, the ground should be fine for her first run on good ground, a winner on both good to soft and good to firm would suggest the ground will not be a problem. This does look a tougher race than my first selections but I would expect Love Tale to win it. 46
Views 0
Win
Result
600
Profit/Loss Love Tale Win @ 5 WON May 17 4:20 Salisbury
13:39
17/05 16:20 Royal Reyah ended last year with a win at Doncaster over six furlongs on soft ground which made it two wins from four starts as a two year old with his other win coming on his second start which was at Bath over six furlongs on good ground and he reappearance as a three year old this year should promise and improvement when beaten by just a head at Bath over five furlongs on good to soft ground off a mark of 71. The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for that run which means he comes here holding a mark of 74 and now 8lbs higher than his last win but he has improved since that run and he will benefit from his seasonal debut last month. He is back up to six furlongs today which he has won his last two starts over and back on good ground will suit. Plenty of improvement to come from him and I would be disappointed if he could not land this race today. 30
Views 0
Lose
Result
150
Profit/Loss Royal Reyah Win nap @ 3 LOST May 15 3:30 Beverley
14:28
15/05 15:30 Mark Johnston’s Courtesy Call has now gone eleven starts without breaking his duck so can he do it at the eleventh time of asking today is the question. He never really got close over 7f and 8f but when stepped up to 11f he was within a length of the winner at Kempton on the all-weather, dropped down to 10f next time out and then over 12f last time out and seemed to be back to his old self and not producing the goods. He is switched to the turf today after four starts on the all-weather and over this trip for the first time on turf, he has only been out on good to soft once which was on his debut when he missed the break and ran very green and never got involved but he comes here today off a mark of 59 which for a Mark Johnston runner you would expect results, he is also up against a weak looking field here today and I am going to take a chance on him today that this field is weak enough and his handicap mark is low enough for him to finally break his duck! 28
Views 0
Lose
Result
250
Profit/Loss Courtesy Call Win nap @ 8.5 LOST May 11 5:00 Nottingham
19:54
12/05 17:00 Today’s sole selection comes in the penultimate race at Nottingham which is a handicap open to three year old runners only and Sylvester Kirk’s The Noble Ord is the one for me here. This gelding comes here to make just his fifth career start and has put in a couple of decent efforts in higher class races and the drop in trip today should result in a win. He did not show a lot on debut, slow away and ran green but the experience of that run showed on his second start when he went to Salisbury to win a class five maiden over 6f. Since that win he has been out in two class four handicaps, first at Goodwood over 6f off a mark of 74 where he was fourth of six but only a length and a half off the winner and then off 73 last time out he went to Yarmouth to make his first start over 7f and he with third of six and within a length of the winner. The handicapper has put him back up to 74 for this run here where he will be making his first start over a mile and on the evidence of his last two starts where in both he has got going close home the step up in trip should be ideal for him and he also does not seem to mind the soft ground so no concerns about that today but the key is the step up in trip and with that I would expect him to go in today if up to the kind of level of his last two starts which have both come in higher class race. Of the rest Speedy Yaki who although has a poor record on the turf has improved over the winter on the all-weather and I would not rule him out but Loyal Master looks the main threat, his last two starts have come in class two handicaps so a big step down in class today and with Justin Newman taking off 5lbs should put him right in the mix but it has to be The Noble Ord for me. 28
Views 0
Lose
Result
150
Profit/Loss The Noble Ord Win nap @ SP LOST May 11 4:45 Chester
10:55
11/05 16:45 Sir Boss ran well at this time of the year last year and although disappointed later on in the year I would not rule him out. Tenhoo is another who was in great form at this point last year and you can ignore his latest effort when returning from a lengthy break because he will put in a much better performance here today. Mica Mika is the one that I am on here, he too was in good form at this point last year before fading towards the end of the year, he has been here to Chester before when runner up, twice a runner up over this trip and a previous winner on soft ground. Comes here today off a mark of 77 which is 3lbs lower than when last seen on the flat and although still 7lbs higher than his Warwick success back in 2010 this should still be a competitive mark for him because he has put in good performances off marks in the 80’s and this will be the first time he has run off below 80 for six starts. It has been 237 days since last seen on the flat but he did have a successful outing over hurdles just 136 days ago with that win coming on soft ground which goes to show he does enjoy a bit of cut in the ground. The majority of these are coming into the race on the back of poor runs, some at the end of last year and some on reappearances so the race could turn into anything but I believe that Mica Mika is now back to a mark which he should be capable of winning off and that is what I believe he can achieve today. 48
Views 0
Win
Result
375
Profit/Loss Mica Mika Win nap @ 3.5 WON May 11 3:25 Market Rasen
10:55
11/05 15:25 Chris Bealby’s Pollen Jock has not been in the greatest of form on his last couple of starts but a switch to fences today can bring the best back out of him. He is a three time winner over hurdles from fourteen starts, that includes twice a winner here at Market Rasen and a winner on his only previous start over this trip, all of his wins have come on fast ground but I still believe he is capable of winning on today’s ground. He was well beaten when last seen over hurdles which was here at Market Rasen, he ended up eighty-five lengths off the winner after dropping away and his run before that was not much better although much closer to the winner, before those two starts he picked up three wins and a runner up finish but now 16lbs higher than his last handicap win he has struggled. He comes here for his debut over fences and is off the same mark as his hurdling rating which is 110, I believe you can ignore his last run because that was on soft ground and as long as the ground stays good to soft here today then he will have a chance. He is not one that I will be putting the house on but he does interest me on his chasing debut and with Gina Andrews taking off 5lbs today that could prove valuable. Of the rest Dineur and North Stack look the main threats but I am sticking with Pollen Jock. 28
Views 0
Lose
Result
100
Profit/Loss Pollen Jock EW @ 21 LOST |
|||||||||||
| 23/05/12 11:16:42 | © 2002-2012 OLBG, part of Invendium Ltd | Gamcare Gamble Aware |