 SmoggyFever Blogging Profile 2011 has been a crazy year for me, i have moved jobs from Cape Town to Kampala, Uganda, and look set for even more moving about when i move to Gulu in Northern Uganda from 2012.
I work for a Solar P
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Vital Statistics |
| May LSP |
41.49 |
| May ROI |
-1% |
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May Strike Rate |
39 % |
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Performance
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Mario Gomez Top Scorer
 UEFA Champions League 2011/12
19/05 19:45
I thin at 7/1 this is a top bet, as clearly Gomez is the main threat on this bayern team in terms of putting it in the net.
Ribery and Robben will help in the cause by feeding him shots, and i don't think we'll see robben on penalties any time soon in regulation either.
Messi is just the one ahead, so i don't know what happens if they tie, but gomez can score two in the first half here, and i don't think chelsea will have the ability to cope with him.
Cahill got ripped apart by cavani against napoli, and i think the same will happen here as question marks loom over their back four
Mario Gomez Bayern Munich Win @ 8
LOST
Opting In
 5:45 Hamilton
18/05 17:45
I look at this and even though the prices aren't out at the bookies, it looks clear from the exchanges that Opt Out is going to go off as a big favourite, and that by the running time it'll be maybe 4/6 or lower.
Finalize on debut looks like it may challenge and has good pedigree behind it but ultimately i think it is the favourite today that will win this race no problem.
Of the rest, well i just don't think we'll see a challenger, and even though opt out has only raced the once it was a 3rd place finish, so i think it can only improve from there and i look forward to it winning this race
Is It Destiny?
2:00 Redcar
14/05 14:00
Richard Fahey's horse EASTERN DESTINY looks to start som esort of a winning run, having come off a winner in only its second race.
That doesn't tell the whole story, the horse has not raced since August 2011, so form is not really anything to go by from this horse, and i can see why Chester Aristocrat is the favourite despite never winning.
Aristocrat has gotten better every race, but if we can see a performance like that from last year then i see no other winner than Destiny.
Looking at the rest, I think no dominion has very little chance while Wolf Spirit could cause a bit of an upset.
Apart from that, just eastern destiny for me
Eastern Destiny EW @ 5.5
LOST
Chelsea Clean Sheet
Chelsea v Blackburn
13/05 15:00
Having gone for Chelsea to win to nil, i have to be confident they will keep a clean sheet today.
As mentioned, Blackburn have struggled to score of late, even though they have 47 goals on the season.
Yakubu has scored well over 30% of those goals and watching Blackburn the last few weeks, it has been easy to see where the problem is.
They concede at least 2 per game, but the influential players of old, Gamst Pedersen and David Dunn have struggled to make any impact this season, and MGP has actually been a ghost in the team this season.
The likes of Hoilett and Formica haven't done it enough, and Yakubu won't fancy this today
Chelsea - Yes Win @ 2.2
LOST
Chelsea Win
Chelsea v Blackburn
13/05 15:00
I just can't see Chelsea not finishing the season domestically with a big win to eradicate the memories of that awful performance at Anfield.
Blackburn have nothing to play for, their in London where recent trips have yielded a demolition by Arsenal and their worst performance of the season at Spurs where they didn't even register a shot on target.
The likes of Torres and others know they'll start on the bench for the champions league final while Terry and Ivanovic aren't even getting the chance to play, so they'll use this last game of the season to try and make amends, even though they can't change their league position
Show Me The Win
1:45 Ascot
12/05 13:45
I don't see any wins from recent form from any of the runenrs today and i am looking at second favourite Show Flower to take the win, even though Sir Maximilian clearly will take all the beating at that price.
Show flower has been consistent however, and i reckon the placings its had recently, four in its last 5 races, will eventually turn into a win here.
Sir Max only has the two runs under its belt, going from 5th to 2nd, and i'm sure punters expect further good going, but flower is due i feel to burst out and win outright.
Not much to say about the other horses, can't see much in the way of competition for the top two
Show Flower Win @ 4.5
WON
Chelsea To Win To Nil
Chelsea v Blackburn
13/05 15:00
Chelsea have quite a nice price attached to them for the win to nil.
Blackburn may have scored 47 goals this season, but they've conceded 76, so no worries there, and they have actually failed to score in 4 of their last 6 games.
They looked woeful offensively against Spurs, the baggies and more recently wigan, and i don't see how they'll even muster shots on target against chelsea.
I think this game is one for coasting, and blackburn will have no fight in them, as half the team look for new clubs, i for one would be, and wouldn't want to hang around a club that has been protesting since early in the season
Chelsea to win to nil Win @ 2.29
LOST
Chelsea In Resounding Win
Chelsea v Blackburn
13/05 15:00
Blackburn would have needed a win here just to stay up had they beaten wigan, and as it was, they lost, and i can't see them doing anything here, not even scoring.
Yakubu is their only threat and he was expertly handled by wigan, and with john terry out of the champions league final, and getting stick from his awful anfield performance, i just see nothing other than a big home win.
Torres will probably start here, with drogba getting the nod for the cl final, so i think he'll score a fair few goals himself and end an awful season on a high.
6th is Chelsea's but that wn't stop them coasting to victory here
Chelsea -1.75 Win @ 2.02
LOST
Stand To Reason
4:45 Chester
10/05 16:45
Going for Stand to Reason in the next with Ryan Moore on board.
This horse will take all the beating, and it looks to have plenty of quality and form coming in here.
Three wins from its last 4 races will stand it in good stead, and while i do like the look of Resurge, i feel it is Stand to Reason who'll get the win.
Resurge's stat line isn't the best, despite having a solid jockey and the price coming in we have Stand going down below 2/1 at bet365.
I hope the weight isn't an issue going 8lbs heavier than a win at newbury, but looking at the competition it shouldn't be an issue and at 9/4 i think the price is worth taking
Stand To Reason Win @ 3.25
LOST
Seanie Win
3:05 Chester
10/05 15:05
I think Seanie looks a live mid range runner here, and will give a good account of itself with ryan moore on board.
The horse has looked solid in recent outings, and i think that between this race and the next one where he takes Stand to Reason, the jockey will bag at least the one win.
Seanie doen't have the best of stat lines, but look closer and you'll be able to see that bad course management led to it losing its grip on the last race, only allowing it to finish mid pack.
A better run from this accomplished jockey and i do expect a really good finish.
Look for Seanie to go well here
David Livingstone Win
2:35 Chester
10/05 14:35
I'll go for the favourite in this one, although i know it'll be a tough race with Call to Battle looking pretty good.
Livingstones odds have come way down, and could go to 6/4 by the start.
Call to battle hasn't really moved in that sense, but with a race of only 5 horses, i see this really only being a 2 way race.
It looks like we'll see David Livingstone make the front as early as possible, and use that to push on, maintaining the pace.
That was where success came from last year, including two wins from its last 5 races.
Look for the favourite to overcome a poor 5th last time out and push on to win here
David Livingston Win nap @ 3.5
LOST
Questions To Be Answered
2:05 Chester
10/05 14:05
I'm going for Questioning in the next race at Chester, and i think this will be a tight race all round.
We have Hunters Light, Questioning and Macret all expected to go well with renowned jockies on all three.
Hunters light has Frankie Dettori, while Macret has Ryan Moore.
I am going for Bill Buick though and i think with the horses recent form of placing in four of its last 6, and winning a further race, it can go well here and push all the way.
Do i go for the each way to diminish the win payout, or just go all in and sit back for an entertaining race?
Each way it is
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