AC Ajaccio To Lose To Toulouse

Toulouse v AC Ajaccio

20/05 20:00

In what's going to be a frantic night in France tonight as the curtain comes down there are plenty of teams involved at the wrong end of the league.

Sat in prime spot is AC Ajaccio. They have to get something from this game tonight and a loss here means they are relegated.

At home Toulouse though are hard to beat. They were only closely edged out by the Champions elect tonight Montpellier 1-0, but they smashed Lyon 3-0 here before that. This match up is not good for AC Ajaccio. They've lost the last four in a row against Toulouse 3-0, 3-1, 3-1, 4-1. They're not even close and whilst there's much more at stake tonight for them Toulouse can have one of their best seasons for some time and can actually finish fifth in the league tonight.

Great price for Toulouse.

23

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50

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Lyon Out With A Win

Lyon v Nice

20/05 20:00

Prices tonight obviously swayed by the fact that plenty of teams have very little to play for tonight in France. Look to the bottom of the league though and it's going to be one of the most phrenetic final nights in Le Championnat history as goals go in and the picture changes. No less than eight teams are involved in the final two spots for relegation tonight and despite the fact that Nice sit in 13th in the league they could actually be relegated if other matches go against them. It's unlikely, but you just never know.

For that then Nice have to ensure they get something tonight, but Lyon will be no divers here tonight. This is a match up of a good home team against a poor away team though and Lyon haven't lost this match up in the last eleven meetings and have won the last three in a row over the last three years. They have by their own admission underperformed even finishing fourth as they were the standard bearer for this division for so long. They haven't lost in the league at home since February and with the likes of Lisandro Lopez and Befami Gomis up front they still have a top strikeforce.

Home win to end the season for Lyon.

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50

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Lille Home Win

Lille v Nancy

20/05 20:00

It's all about the top two tonight in the French Championship as Montpellier just have to avoid defeat to the bottom of the league side and PSG have to win.

Up to last weekend Lille were still in the hunt for the title, but Montpellier put paid to that with what will probably now turn out to be the most important win of the season for them. Because of the fact that Lille have no one to catch and no on that can catch them this match could be a bit of a non event, but on the contrary I think Lille will want to go out with a top peformance and there are two players who could be playing their last game here and so they will want to end on a high. Eden Hazard has again been linked with clubs in England today as both Chelsea and Manchester United say they are in the driving seat for his signature. Man City haven't started bidding yet. He will certainly be looking to end on a high note in what will undoubtedly be his last bow. Then there's Joe Cole. The on-loan Liverpool player who has said he wants to remain in France, but with the manager change coming to Anfield he may have no choice but to return to Merseyside as the new manager will take stock of what he has to play with next season. This could well be Joe's last match here too.

For that I those reasons I think Lille beat a Nancy team in mid table tonight.

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18

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Rafael Nadal Win

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal

21/05 11:00

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal
WR: 1 v 3
H2H (All): 14-17
H2H (Clay): 2-10
2012 (All): 30-4 v 32-5
2012 (Clay): 10-2 v 15-1

I always believe you should back Djokovic whenever he is not the favourite for any match up. That can only really come nowadays if the scenario is this - a clay court match against Nadal. Djokovic has looked a little stymied this week up until yesterday when as ever he brings his A-game to the latter end of tournaments and then raises his level when up against Roger or Rafa. His performance yesterday was very good, but Federer almost pulled out of this tournament at the beginning of the week due to fatigue and I feel after the 1st set finished he turned the gas down a little. Take nothing away from Nolo, but Federer will possible be happy with his weeks work here at this beautiful tennis theatre.

Now the Nadal conumdrum is a very different animal - firstly discount the last meeting between the two at Monte Carlo where Djokovic's mind was completely elsewhere due to the death that week of his father. Novak will aim to put that right to some extent today, but I still don't see Nadal relinquishing here and this is all about Rafa still stamping his authority on this element of the sport - claycourt tennis.

Nadal has lost just the once this year on clay - that Verdasco win on the blue courts of Madrid and that was the first time he'd even dropped a set on clay this year! Djokovic is the defending champion here and for that Nadal will want to wrestle one back from the Serb and there's a psychological edge to this for what could be a dress rehearsal for Roland Garros in a few weeks time as well this will be another mahoosive tussle. Nadal has preceeded this final with straight sets wins over Ferrer and Berdych; two players in top form and he will be the one to take the title from Djokovic here for me.

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37

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Will Pauls Luton 'Buckle' Under The Pressure?

York v Luton

20/05 15:00

York are about to set one new record here today whatever happens: they will be the 1st club to appear in 2 Wembley finals in different competitions in just over a week. Last week they secured the FA Trophy final 2-0 against Newport. So in that respect York can say 'been here, done that' They're also searching for another - to become the first side to win both the FA Trophy and play-off finals in the same season.

York have a seriously heavy handed head to head over the Hatters in recent years. They have lost to them only once in the last ten meetings in all competitions at this level over the past three years, with this season compounding that history with three victories and one draw this season.

They're both teams for me that have names that don't belong in the Conference. Call me sentimental, but some names deserve to be elsewhere. Luton for instance is a team that I have seen in the top flight of English football, not the bottom. For the past few season they've looked the team to win this division, but have twice now failed to gain automatic promotion. Last season of course they had the heartbreak of losing the final at the Etihad to AFC Wimbledon on penalties - does that spur them on or add to the pressure of knowing they've 'been here, no done that!'

There's no denying the turnaround that Paul buckle has instilled in Luton Town, but York have already proved they're a cup side this year with the win in the FA Trophy and that's what this game is - a cup final. I also look at the away record between these two this year and York have a much better record - this after all is an away game for both. Given all that added to the head to head this season i'll take York to win this and end a decade of non league status.

25

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105

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Aalborg Win

AaB v HB Køge

20/05 15:00

HB Koge are a dead duck in the top tier of Danish football. They've had a torrid season with only 18 points from 31 games and find themselves 7 points adrift of Lyngby and 12 points adrift of safety with only 2 games to go. They were bottom on day one of the season and they've remained there ever since.

Whilst Aalborg have little to play for themselves in mid table, i'd expect them to get all three points here this afternoon against a team who have known their fate for a while. Aab have a decent, if not polarising season at home this season and have won two of their last three at home. I expect them to win here this afternoon

26

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35

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Overs At Odense.

Odense BK v Lyngby

20/05 15:00

First things first Odense are a better team than their current position suggests. Last season they were runners up in the league - admittedly 26 points behind the winners, but runners up nevertheless. This season their home form has been a disaster and it's the reason they're in this position of being 2nd from bottom. In the last two games though they have played the top two in the league away from home and neither of them have been able to beat them. That, i'm sure will have gven them a great deal of belief for this crunch match up with the bottom placed Lyngby. The problem though is they are still to get that elusive win in the league. They haven't claimed all three points since the 5th December 2011 and even bottom placed Lyngby can boast a better return in that time with four wins and they did win their last outing 3-2 against Aalborg.

I think with the odds for an Odense win are a little short bearing in mind the length of time a win has been coming and it's a better bet to take the overs here. Both teams have been regular overs teams in the league this season and Odense have kept only 1 clean sheet since that 5th December win. Despite the position and the results Lyngby do score and have done so in 3 of the last 4 games. I fancy the overs will go here today.

26

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35

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Bet Coverage

Bayern Munich v Chelsea

19/05 19:45

At the Quarter final stage I blogged and backed Bayern Munich to defy the odds and win the Champions League due to the fact that the final was being played in their own back yard at the Alianz Arena and that I believed that would be a huge motivatory factor to them overcoming Real Madrid. They did just that. To my surprise and probably everyone else's I got the double benefit of Barcelona being denied by Chelsea. Due to this I now feel like I'm in a stunning position to draw from the Bayern bet, but just as a catch all and to try and minimise any loss I will back the other two outcomes come 90 minutes which will guarantee that I at least don't lose on the night.

Bayern have been rock solid at home, conceding only 6 goals at home all season in the Bundesliga. People are making much of the Cup defeat last weekend 5-2, but honestly they're in exactly the same position as Chelsea were and had their eye on other bigger matches - 5-2 this game read 4-1 at Anfield for Chelsea.

Seeing Chelsea's team tonight doesn't make me feel like Chelsea are going to trouble Bayern up front either. Ryan Bertrand in the starting 11. Even Malouda can't get a game! Whilst Bayern are without key players too, they don't look as weak as Chelsea do.

Then there's the Terry affair - Am I the only person who thinks he shouldn't be anywhere near the trophy should Chelsea win it? How do the likes of Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba feel about that when it wasn't them who put their final place in jeopardy by scything down an opposition player for absolutely no reason. They give just as much if not more for their team by keeping their professionalism in check.

Bayern to win for me. Bayern have forsaken everything else domestically this year to make sure they played this final in the own fantastic stadium and their home form is the foundation for a win here and keep Chelsea blue.

28

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60

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Backing Serena, Come On Li Na!!

Na Li vs Serena Williams

19/05 11:00

I backed Li Na at the start of this competition E/W at 23.00 after studying the draw and it became particularly relevant to do so when her half of it saw Azarenka succumb to another shoulder injury. Li of course is building up to the defence of her Roland Garros title and it was in the back of my mind that her record leading up to slams is always excellent and she always gone to the quarters or better of all majors recently. She's gone through all the rounds in straights thus far and is now just one win away from the final. The problem is she's up against undefeated Serena. My original blog on Li winning the title highlighted the fact that I think Serena is looking tired and I thought either of her two rounds to get here would cause her problems. It therefore annoyed me to see her get practically a walkover yesterday against Pennetta who has looked steaming this week. That retirement will have helped Serena here unfortunately for my bet as i thought two long games were in store for Serena and by this point she would have really been exhuasted to the point of giving this semi a token effort in readiness for a rest before Roland Garros. Shes played without a break now for nearly 3 weeks. Li is playing well though and her desire here maybe greater than Serena.

The head to head is in Serena favour at 5-1, but no match has not been close and everyone has featured sets that have gone to 7 or tiebreaks.

I'm backing Serena simply to claw back a little of the loss I'll take on the ante post bet if indeed Serena wins here, but for all my heart I'm hoping Li can pull it off. She's certainly playing well enough this week to do so.

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1

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Phillies Handicap Win

PHI Phillies @ CHI Cubs

18/05 01:05

Usually you'd expect a win for the Phillies when the mound is commanded by Roy Halladay, but in recent times the golden glove man has been on the receiving end of losses and he's not used to it. To be fair he's done okay with an ERA of and in his last two starts he's only given up four earned runs over 14 innings in total. The problem is his offence hasn't played their part of the bargain. This series though against the Cubs and they've found their runs and last night racked up 9 in a 7 point win 9-2 over the stumbling Cubs.

I don't see there being as many runs tonight as Halladay should ensure the Cubs are kept to a minimum. It's just about the Phillies ability to get runs and they will be eager to get at the Cubs starter who's 0-5 this year off a +6 ERA.

Phillies should cover this spread tonight and get above the magic .500 at last.

30

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50

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Phillies Win

PHI Phillies @ CHI Cubs

18/05 01:05

It's not where the Phillies want to be under the .500 mark. It's certainly not a place they're used to being. In the main the pitching's been it's usual but there's been a lack of run support at times. Bottom of the National League East! Unbelievable! Still despite that they are currently on a 4 games win streak and are looking to sweep the Cubs here. The Phillies are as good on the road as they are in Philly and tonight they'll look to their star mound hound in Roy Halladay. Now Halladay's not been the usual banker this season. He's currently 3-3 and hasn't won since 16th April.

Despite that the Cubs are pinning their hopes on an 0-5 pitcher to get the better of the great man. Chris Volstad is yet to win and he's giving up an ERA of 6.92. The Phillies have struggled up to this series for runs, but tonight they may get more than their fair share.

28

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30

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Overs At Plainmoor

Torquay v Cheltenham

17/05 19:45

I expect goals here tonight between these two. Torquay can't hold back here and need to overcome a 2 goal defecit. Considering the run ins the two have had I think the odds on a Torquay win here are a little short considering. They've limped over the line after an excellent year otherwise. They do have a good record at home with only 3 losses, but they've conceded eight goals in the last four matches including the two they let by against Cheltenham in the 1st leg.

Cheltenham won't sit back though here and invite 90 minutes of pressure and I think they will approach the game much like Crewe did yesterday. Goals have never really been a problem between these two as 8 of the last 11 when they've met have gone over and this season's meeting here was a 2-2 draw. I'm surprised the odds here are so high for this game.

23

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52

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