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I've been an OLBG member since August 2005 and I can't be sure, but it's very possible I have visited every day since I joined

I am a Portsmouth fan and live in Gozo near Malta in the Med - My bett 


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Aug 25

00:20

The Best Horse Racing Betting System Ever. Can It Work?

Systems

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One of the most frequently asked questions about Horse Racing Betting - "Systems, do they work?"

There are three types of punters regarding systems and during this piece I will refer to each in passing.
  1. Those that use systems, lose with systems and think they work.

  2. Those that have used systems, didn't win and don't accept that they can work.

  3. Those that have a system, win, won't tell, and are not believed to be credible!


In the most disparaging of fashion, I can testify that those punters that fall into categories 1 & 2  don't know what they are doing, and those in No3 do, but can't prove it.


I can not even begin to estimate the time and effort I have put in over the years in trying to find a "Golden Egg" system to beat the odds in Horse Racing. Even as I type this piece, I have a pice of software running in the background on this very laptop, collating thousands of bits (or is it Bytes?), of information from every Nursery run in the month of September for the past 11 years. It is assessing every runner, in every race distance. At the same time, it is also looking at every 3yo only handicap at every distance between 5f and 12f, and the same again for every 3yo+ handicap over the same distances. Once complete, and this will take a very powerful computer,something in the region of 8 hours to complete, I will have  a data set of literally millions of cells of information, which I will filter and play around with for many many hours before deciding on what the strategy will be for the coming month.


I do this every month, and I do it every year. For what may end up taking me something between 12-24 hours to complete, I may find one or two worthwhile bets to be struck, I may find twenty. It's a lot of work for little action. That's the biggest problem with systems. THEY ARE BORING!


Because they are boring, many people you ask, "Systems, do they work?", will answer No2. The reason they do not believe they work is because they have looked at a system but don't understand the system. Don't understand probability and don't have the patience to see a system through.


I wonder how many people have started a system, whether it be a simple one such horses considered best drawn over 6f that are also Racing Post predicted favourite, or more complicated in using the second favourite in the Daily Mirror if the main Tipster has gone for it and it has previous course winning form. Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is, they all have credence if followed for a certain amount of time. I have no idea if either of the aforementioned ideas would work, I haven't checked. (if you want to try them, feel free, just mail me 10% if they turn out to be gooduns!) The main reason punter number two exists is because he wants a system that will provide instant results, instant profits and big ones at that! Well don't we all? But it doesnt work that way. Sure, systems are born from a single idea, but they are very plant like in that they need time investment (as well as cash), time to nurture, develop and "create" your winning system. They also have a lifespan and die. But more of that later.


The single most frequent reason for system failure is lack of patience. You've come up with a great idea. You've researched it and back tested it against previous results. You've come across the perfect system that can't fail to provide big profits, it's proven. So you go to work and back the very next qualifier; LOSE! And the next, LOSE! And the next and the next and you get the picture. You're average punter does not have the patience to back four losers, hell he may not have the bank after thinking he has stumbled upon the pot at the end of the rainbow, so the system is destined for the trash and the next qualifier isn't bet. You know what happens, BANG! WINNER 10/1! So he bets the next, LOSER! And the system is forgotten. The maths ignored. (this example at single point level stakes has provided 6 clear points and over 100% return on investment), but these numbers are lost on our punter. He is out of pocket and scanning the paper for a DEAD CERT favourite to recoup the losses. You know what I'm talking about, and if you have been a punter for any length of time you know how it feels. If you don't, you're in denial!


You've checked the system over hundred of previous qualifiers, races and bets and it worked. You've experimented with it in real life for only a handful of bets. Did you even realise that within your back tested results, there are losing runs of four, five even six runners. Do you know what the strike rate of your system is, do you know what level of return on investment to expect? Do you know the average price of not only the qualifiers, but the ones that actually win? You have to give your system time, and you have to understand it's idiosyncrasies. Every single little aspect of your system. You also have to know, you're not going to be running around in a Ferrari with a beach-fronted house in the background any time soon off the back of your system, like the guys in the adverts selling them are. They are not really, and you never will be. Sorry.


Systems are a fun and interesting way of betting for number crunching gambling geeks. (like me!). They are boring, almost hobby like. Systems can be winners too. But profits will be slow and steady at best.  That brings me on to number 3 answer.


If you find a system that is a winner, DONT TELL ANYONE. The absolute essence of a system is that it has a strike rate at odds that beat the probability set out and given by the bookmaker. It will be  small edge, but an edge all the same. And here comes your biggest enemy in systematic betting.


ODDS CHANGE - YOUR SELECTION PROCESS DOESN'T


That's right. It is the foremost reason why systems are perceived to not work and often don't or eventually fail. Your selection process is set out at Point A, and never changes, but markets and odds change to account for such things. The easiest way to influence a market is to throw money at it. Throw too much at it, and the odds change, your small edge has now disappeared for ever and you wont get it back. The more people you share your winning system with, the quicker their money will turn it into a losing system by affecting the odds you can get.


So. If you find a winning system that you want to keep, keep it to yourself. Herein lies the next problem, (if you consider systematic winning selections a problem!). When you tell people you have a winning system, THEY WON'T BELIEVE YOU unless you prove it to them. You prove it and kill your system. You don't prove it and continue winning and they think you're a liar. Hey Ho. It is ironic to say you can't win. So don't mention it at all, and you win all round.


The one thing you will have to do though is not only keep it a secret, but make your system your best friend too. Know everything about it. Know how it performs at different times of year, or going conditions, or whether certain trainers are better or worse for your system. Look at your results every day. Be aware of the slightest change. Even without sharing your system, eventually the odds will change against you. They always do. There are computerised algorithms being run continually over results, looking for trends. That 's what your system is. A trend. It may remain undiscovered for a time; a month, a year, three years but eventually things will change, and you will have to know your system well enough and understand the past results deeply enough to be able to accept that change and indeed change with it. You can only stay ahead of the game for so long. It will catch up. It always does. You just have to remain aware and one step ahead. Time investment will allow you that privilege


You can speculate yourselves as to whether you think the time I have spent looking for my system has born results or not. I'm not going to say. If I say I have, to retain any credibility I might have I will then have to give you details of a system and potentially kill it. If I say I have not yet found one, you'll laugh and tell me I've wasted my time.


What I will do however, is share with you my research for September across the various race types, age groups and distances I am researching. I will look for some angles from the past results, that qualify my expectation in sample size, the frequency of runners to ensure they come regularly enough to stave off that boredom and strike rate that is sufficiently high enough to provide a return on investment of at least my minimum expectation with average winners price big enough to complete the prior two tasks. I shan't be looking for odds on winners with an 80% strike rate. Whilst still profitable, Kudos is hard to come by when suggesting people back odds on favourites. My favourite systems will have average starting prices of winners at over 7/2, and preferably toward 7/1. The only problem with the latter is that one can expect lengthy losing runs, but one winner in 7 runners is sufficient return. At 7/1 average winner starting price, I would expect to have a losing run of anything up to 2o at a time during the course of the system. It takes a very patient punter to sit through 20 consecutive losers and continue to throw money at the system. But it's that punter who then hits the three consecutive 7/1 winners to redress the balance long after the other, less patient one, has dumped it, accepted the loss and moved on to repeat the process on the next system, answering the original question with the number 2 answer!


I will give some pointers on past profitable angles for September betting for you to take away and do with what you want. I would suggest playing with it them, perhaps adding them in to coincide with your favourite, newspaper or internet tipster and back only when they correspond, or come up with some other extra variable, just to give it some differentiation. I shan't track them through the month and provide P&L, but I will pick on or two of the basis ones and give an update at the end of the month as to their success or failure whicever may be the case. There comes no guarantees with this information, and I hold no responsibility for what you do with it. Past results are just that, they do not predict with accuracy what WILL happen in the future, only what MIGHT! Try the ideas on paper first and only gamble what you can afford to lose.


If you are interested in Systematic betting on horseracing and have not tried it previously, or were not sure where to start, have a go. Let me know your thoughts, and without giving the details out, tell me if they work or not. Quite often the most successful systems are the most simple. One or two variables, and there are thousands of combinations to be thought up, work best and keep the interest.


If you have any ideas on systems you might like me to check back results for, as long as the variables coincide with what my software is capable of, I will run them back if I think there might be something in them. If someone asks me to check all 2nd favourites in handicaps, I will refuse and confidently tell you that it is a system that doesn't work. But give me a go. You might uncover your very own gem.


What are your thoughts on Systematic betting? Not only for Horseracing but for other sports too.


Are certain sports better for System betting than others?

Are there sports that should be avoided for Systems, and why?

Have you ever bought a System? Did it work or did it fail?

Leave me a comment and let me know

MOB


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Comments

by jmstocka on 25 August 2012 07:49

Nice work MOB Im hoping to do a similar piece soon

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by discoduck on 29 August 2012 23:44

Hi MOB big fan of your blogs.To further this topic may I suggest what you might consider to be the opposite of a system.The anti-system to coin a phrase.Instead of removing subjectivity from a selection process which it seems systems strive to do make your decision totally subjective.The legend that is Peter OSulliven who was known to have won some pretty large sums said as much in his autobiography.I think the reasons why certain punters not you of course! try to develop systems is because they are unable or have lost the ability to trust their own judgement.It is not uncommon for a punter to back a system selection while acually believing that another horse in the same race will win.When that other horse does win he curses himself for not trusting in his own judgement.Ok I know its not easy to win and its easy to be dismissive but all the information out there is available to bookmakers as well as us.We must find our own X-factor.Good luck in your quest MOB you are always a good read.

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by man o bong on 31 August 2012 00:28

Gazcaddy, I think that trying to improve them comes under the "lack of patience" I referred to. What sort of systems have you used in the past? Would you revisit some old selection criteria now, to see if in their raw form they could work again?

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by Roger Green on 31 August 2012 00:41

Fantastic stuff MOB... three facors above all others make for profitable betting1 Is the horse straight on the day of the race. I dont mean fit as most not all of them areI mean has it been ok in the last 24 hours. Eaten ok etc 2 Is it worse company than last time and better handicapped unless novice race3 Do connections gamble and if so is their money going downIf all 3 boxes are ticked its the most profitable system I know

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by servecold on 4 September 2012 21:57

started using dataform an i found it difficult to use at first then bought a couple books precision and efficiency of racetrack betting markets and the way of the turtle now all i need to do is get better with excel as youve said the hours need to turn the information into something useful is boring but then isnt that the difference between a mug punter an a professional ? or someone the bookies hate nowhere near being a professional but its a goal of mine lose less win more :O one thing ive learnt is that the bookies goal is to predict where the monies going an balance the books not what the results going to be good read mob keep up the good work

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by man o bong on 20 September 2012 16:51

Seriously Data? A Virtual System! Your partly right about not being interested in as much as investing in it but my curiosity does wonder how the system came about, and indeed how you get on with it. Please divulge

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by horsestolay on 22 September 2012 00:19

simply there is no system -in horse racing-horses are animals.they live .they are not machines.IN all the world of handicapping the races we refer to PAST performances but this is missleading since it shows how the horse DID perform not how it will perform.second -remember i m speaking about horse racing-speed all this figures are relative they can never be true others is class how can you measure class?? very difficult and all figures are at the end relative and not measureablethis is why handicappers fail

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by johnad on 23 September 2012 23:15

impatience with the results of systems short-term is a common trait shared by many of us-me included .I bellieve the answer may be use a portfolio type approach to provide greater flexibility!

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by Bingboy on 30 September 2012 16:01

I have 2 very simple selection methods that I have been monitoring since the end of May with price restrictions on each. Both are showing profits at Betfair LSP less 5 commission in excess of 30 1 from over 400 bets the other from over 800 bets. Yet they have suffered longest losing runs of 18 pts and 60 pts respectively so your comments on patience struck a chord with me. I have other variations on this selection process that is also producing profits but from a far smaller number of bets so I was wondering if you had a view on what number of bets would make a satisfactory sample size to begin betting on the selections and how you would set the betting bank. At present I wait until I have 300 qualifiers then base my stakes on double the longest losing run at that point adjusting stakes accordingly if the longets losing run is subsequently exceeded.

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by Bingboy on 30 September 2012 16:05

Why cant you put the percentage symbol in these comments? My systems I prefer to call them selection methods are both showing profits in excess of 30 per cent. Thats what i was trying to say in the above comment.

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by man o bong on 30 September 2012 17:24

Bingboy: regarding sample size, i feel it is relevant to prices gained. As a base point i would say, with my systems, generally finding winning sp's averaging around the 5/1 mark, a sample size of 100 bets would be ideal. In fact 100 would be my minimum regardless of price below 5/1. Should the winning sp prices be higher, then i would raise the sample size accordingly to account for the longer losing runs and lower strike rate. eg, 10/1, perhaps 200 bets. I'm glad you have found the article of use thus far, if you have further input i would be interested to hear it, indeed, if anyone else has. We never stop learning in this game. As far as betting bank is concerned, again, relative to the possibility of losing run, it should be sufficient to cover one or to of these, and as far as staking? Well i almost exclusively play single point level stakes

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by Bingboy on 1 October 2012 19:38

I agree that single point level stakes are the most sensible staking plan - its just establishing the size of the bank that concenrs me. My most profitable system only backs selections at Betfair SP of 10.5 and above which does lead to some long losing runs. From 800 or so bets the longest losing run has been 60 points but with a strike rate of around 9 is it reasonable to expect runs much worse than that and if so how much worse?As far as sample sizes go Ive had systems that look good over 100 - 150 bets and then start to go wrong thats why Im more cautious now and wait until I have 300 results before betting with real money.

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by Bingboy on 1 October 2012 19:39

Strike rate of around 9.

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by Bingboy on 1 October 2012 19:39

Aargh 9 per cent.

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by Bingboy on 5 October 2012 00:04

Turfline all the bets are at a Betfair SP of 10.5 and above and despite a 60 point losing run it is presently showing level stakes profit of 380 points from 837 bets. None of the winners have been returned at anything above 28 so its not just down to a few freaky winners at massive prices. The win rate is over 9 per cent. Long losing runs are always going to happen when betting at big prices. All Im trying to establish is whether a run of much more than 60 points can reasonably be expected but I dont expect you to answer that.

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by Probability on 22 October 2012 20:02

Simple System versus Model Based System in SoccerIf you have a system constructed from “simple” statistical methods and it is proven to be profitable i.e. high statistical confidence. I assume this type of system will only work for a while! For example " assume you have found a “window” where you actually can gain. The window was identified by applying “simple” statistical analysis. In this type of systems the window will only be open for a short period of time. The positive expectation value should be less and less and eventually disappear and turn into a system which has a negative expectation value " you will be losing money and the system will eventually breakdown.Why will the system breakdown? One reason can be - If your bets are gainful someone else will be losing money and after a while “the looser” will identify the drain and correct the odds. This odds change will eventually turn your profitable system into losing one! So if you repeated the analysis and correct the system It could work again for a while - You are probably competing with software’s based on adaptively or neural network which constantly learning.I believe in more advanced systems where you have a model which can be tuned from statistics. The Model can be used to simulate the game I use Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the probability for each outcome of a game.

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by DAVIDADAN on 7 July 2013 01:58

Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is they all have credence if followed for a certain amount of timeI think you have summed it up in that one sentence.So many systems do actually have a limited period of success.Dont just look at the system you useie tunnel visionbut look at what is happening around in racesanalyse why the results are not forthcoming and adapt if required.

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by DAVIDADAN on 7 July 2013 02:09

I will add that M.O.B talks a lot of sense particularly as regards systems.I have been known to seek his adviceand he appears to have a great deal of knowledge and resources to hand with honest opinions.Good informative blogthanks Marc!

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by beattheodds on 15 July 2013 11:02

No-one tells everybody everything even on olbg unless they are silly..great blog.

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by Tipster Tez on 2 August 2013 19:35

I use a fairly simple system but its one that also uses not only Paper FC but the Bookies Early prices. I figure that if the bookies have got a horse shorter than FC in Racing Post then they also think it has got a good chance of winning. Obviously there will be lots of qualifiers for this and I have narrowed them down to focusing on horses at less than 3/1`in the FC Tissue. There are other factors that rule horses out but like you said its best I keep them to myself.

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by Tipster Tez on 2 August 2013 19:38

Another good thing about horse racing systems is that its useful also to concentrate on fields with no more than 12 runners maybe even 10. Not sure exactly what the percentage is but I believe 50 -60 of winners come from the first five in the betting. So with that in mind restricting selections in races of 10 or less should keep you getting half the winners - theoretically!

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by man o bong on 2 August 2013 21:17

Thanks for your feedback Tez, I'm not sure about your stats, they will differ from Flat, AW and National Hunt, but it is a reasonable suggestion so long as the strike rate and the average price of winners are sufficient. that's the beauty of systematic betting. It is always marginal, but half the fun is finding them!

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by paceman1 on 23 August 2013 13:32

Ive tried, many a system, but the problem is patience, and avoiding the first inevitable bad run

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by Ridger on 26 August 2013 16:20

Ive been thinking about a system but I like most punters gamble at leisure. For me to consistently use a system it would need to be nearly completely automated or quick and simple. Time is money and to use a system in affordable amounts is generally underwhelming or not worth the investment and risk. Im convinced that systems can be hugely profitable and there are plenty of options or niches the less popular the better in many situations. But many require a lot of analysis have tight margins and always have variability which provides significant risk regardless of the system. The vast majority are like surfing a shark enjoy it while it lasts. There are certainly many low risk systems trading on market movement or disparity but require a decent size wallet patience and effort. Most punters didnt get into gambling to make 1 or 2 for a decent amount of effort those people work at insurance companies. Id like access to more statistics and the ability to check certain trends more deeply than I currently can but I have yet to find a way of accessing the information I would like in a way I am happy to spend interpreting.Personally Id look at lesser known elements of the market and by their nature they are hard to pin down as they are the bits often overlooked by others as well. But if you could see a specific trend with regards to increased development of horses between certain ages or trends of when certain horses/trainers turn losing form into winning I think there could be a bit more to be made from the pre-emptive attack on the market. Many systems and tipsters want trends and a decent amount of form for it to be statistically significant identifying improvement is a harder area to predict. But for that reason potentially more rewarding with significant analysis of the limited data while appreciating a reasonably high amount of volatility and risk comes with the territory.The majority of profitable people in the betting industry make money from being ahead of the market following it is saturated and with small rewards where identified.

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by eduardoneco on 13 October 2013 13:33

Hello everyone.... I run a system based in past results since August with 3€ stake and my results are very satisfatory I think!!... With a 20€ bank I made already 100€ profit ~500.... And the system entered in about 300 races...My question is how can I be sure that my system is EV in a long run?? How many races do I need to feel secure about the system?? It´s a very low sampling yet?Note that like I´m betting in Betfair my bets are both Back and Lay.... The strike rate is about 61...Need some help with this....

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by derekm73 on 11 November 2013 00:15

Heres a good wee system - Horse must be top RPR on racing post Trainers RTF must be 100 and horse must have been placed atleast twice in last 3 races. E/W on all selections.

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by luisd82 on 4 December 2013 18:46

Trainers Jockeys Tracks...you have reason but the most important is to see... is the horse competitive? Or not. Watch if the horse is competitive... it is amazing :Can you please tell me guys what you consider a good system? In 100 races what would be reasonable to hit win horses?Or E/W?Luis

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by matt52 on 4 February 2014 21:37

hello people im new to olbg. about horse racing systems ive got one which has produced a profit since starting it up 6 months ago. just asking people on here how would I go public with my system and proveing it works,. ive spoken to people on other sites but still no further in my quest to start my own tipping service. thanks

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by man o bong on 5 February 2014 17:02

Hi Matt, welcome to OLBG, The forum is a great place to ask question but refrain from trying to advertise any services as you find an instant ban meted out - In terms of starting a tipping service, I ran one for three years. From my experience, I can tell you that it is not the bed of roses it may look at this stage. it takes an enormous amount of work, hard work, that will take up every single spare moment of your time for very little reward. When i say reward i mean emotionally. Despite having three consecutive years of profit, one singlebad month can decimate a membership list, and regardless of results expect hate mail by the sack load, ridicule from envious people,and even death threats - And this was from giving out profitable information, dont even get started on losing people money. You never know who you are dealing withm, whilst you have to be as open and honest as the day. Why did i give up my service? Because i came to hate the sport i loved with the pressure of having to provide information and knowing that peoples money was riding on my advice. I had members that were backing to such low stakes that they couldn't cover the subscription charge even in winning months, and other members that decidde not backing anything over 10/1 on my advice was a good idea, thuis cutting down their profits and in somemonth producing a loss when the months advice was in fact profitable - Far better to get yourself over to the forum,share you tips for free enjoy the adulation of the community who will praise on a winner and never ridicule on a loser - Goos luck and we hope to see you on the forum

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by harryandkath on 18 February 2014 12:39

ive been using systems for over 40yrs they do work if you have the trust in the system you are using. the way i make a profit from the system i am using i go for a set amount of profit per day them i shut up shop until the next day . go for say £10 per day which is £300 per mth which is £3600 per yr. you have to have a aim then up your aim when you fell it is right to do so. just to close i meet PHIL BULL once at Beverley and asked him how could i make my bets pay his reply was i bet the first 3 in the betting in none handicap races i put 3pts on each even he had a plan you have to have a plan as well as a system this is not my system but for the record 71 of none hcp races are won by the first 3 in the betting you can get all the stats on line via ADRIAN MASSEY good luck harry b

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by faasel85 on 28 March 2014 12:51

3.3 Of bank is my way as money goes up so does my stake losing runs and it goes down. £100 bank £3.30 £1000£33.00 not saying it ideal for everyone but it has helped me. I would say in anything to do with gambling once you have the information that can reduce your chances of losing and have a staking plan in place that mirrors your habits or system then im sure theres money to be made. If i had a system with a strike rate of 28 then it could be 2.8 of bank. dont quote me im just saying whats working for me not throwing money at the bookie anymore chasing that winning feeling with old habits as the system. You can have the best system in the world but if you dont know your own strike rates you can be over betting your system doomed that goes for the punter who walks in a shop over betting himself. So the first important thing i would say about systems is they will all crash and burn if we are not staking in accordance to the system or ourselfs. Enjoying racing again :

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by Meze2005 on 5 April 2014 01:44

Mob I ve been following your tips for few years now and u gave me few winners and thank you for that. all this systems and ideas dont mean much to me really that everyone s mentioning cos I believe in old school bettin.watch the horseunderstand the capabilitiesprocess the informationanalyze the tips that u can get hold of and hope for the best I suppose.at the end of the day you must enjoy the racing thats whats all about: thanks again

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by redriver on 18 April 2014 13:10

A very good read, enjoyed your point of view very much, thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.

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by pumpdaball on 20 April 2014 09:07

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by pumpdaball on 20 April 2014 09:36

hit add comment accidentally in aboveAnyway in relation to this this thread I think using systems is a mindset some people have the natural ability of self control and can use systems much more readily than others by saying that it is recognizing that self control is necessary there are people who can place a bet using a system and place another in 3 weeks time or whatever or whenever the next system choice comes along for others making small amounts grinds on patience and I think its this that makes a lot of people give up before they have given any system a fair chance to see if it returns a profit over time which is the objective of the exercise of using systems. a system even if it is not continually giving us profit is a way of money management it can help us regulate our spending / investing / gambling call it what we like. so to that end systems can be very useful helping us keep in control with some form of organization to what can become a very disorganized way to deal with our gambling. much the same way as someone who drinks Drinks are usually bought in measurements such as pints shots half pints etc we know and we relate to how much people drink usually by the measurements for example My granny drank 2 pints and a shot of brandy so the word is regulation and that is what a system brings to gambling it gives us a regulator on how much we spend/gamble and so helps us to manage our gambling money. I think that is the best part of what systems offer as far as getting rich be it quick or slow that is not going to happen anytime soon but of course being human we will keep trying to find that little nugget that no one else has discovered that can pick winners and make us wealthy and no harm in that its a fun pastime providing we are sensible and systems help us stay sensible help us manage our outgoings help us keep track of how we use our stake money. keeps us in the game longer which increases our chance of retrieving previous losses. it all helps never alter your system to get back losses dont chase after them. you will quickly get completely burned every gambling transaction is just that one transaction. if its a loss its over and should not be used as a tool to increase your next investment. stay with your system or your method you will get back losses in small amounts never try to retrieve all your losses with one big bet that would be total self destruction stay calm know your allowance for betting stick loyally with your chosen system. give it a fair chance stay in control just like your system helps you to.. if no returns are forthcoming you may want to acquire a new system thats acceptable. go right ahead above all use your self control and stay calm. its meant to be fun not a punishment.

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by scammydodger on 4 May 2014 21:40

Just started with five new systems. Much of the criteria for selecting is static except for the price which fluctuates.This is problematic in that I need to be on if the selection is in the first three in the betting. If it drifts out its not a bet.Frustratingly Ive watched to potential bets win at 14-1 and 25-1 recently.

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by man o bong on 6 May 2014 11:43

Price based systems in fluid markets are very difficult to manage - I long ago gave up this way of researching systems

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by scammydodger on 12 May 2014 15:46

Yes man o bong you are absolutely right.Cheesed off yet again as a 10-1 shot won on Saturday after drifting to joint-fifth fav.Therefore I was not on.With this mental beating I am taking at the moment have stripped back the criteria for my systems rebuilt them and in the prosess added three more.The only thing that can change now is the going with rregards to it being a bet or not.Tested all systems which actually combine to make one single system for 2011 2012 and 2013 and all years showed profit.Even 2014 is showing profit so I am hopeful.

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by witzend on 16 June 2014 03:18

With systems I have my doubts. Not just race horses but even the human beings can have there off days and so I believe no system can work. It honestly comes down to common sense and keeping the risk factor low when betting on Races or Sports

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by scammydodger on 6 July 2014 11:26

just an update having started using my portfolio of systems at the beginning of May Im still going and after a good May much better that I ever expected have had a dismal June and a very poor start to July.If I hadnt been keeping records which I can refer back to to keep me disciplined and giving hope to continue I may well have quit by now.You see when Royal Ascot started I had a lot more bets and consiquently a lot more losers.Past records had indicated since 2011 that the longest string of losers was 27 achieved twice since then and a further 18 occasions when the losing runs varied between 26 and 16.Between the 13th and the 20th of June I had run up a sole destroying run of 42 consecutive losers - enough to put 99 of people off.However I have persevered with things.Looking back at the previous years records up to the end of July for each year:2011 profit £1.50 but year finished profit £58.722012 profit £55.40 with year finished profit £177.492013 profit £37.54 with year finished profit £139.512014 profit to date £40 39.Im trying to illustrate here the importance of keeping records of all bets. As well inputting all bets to an excel spreadsheet and working out to a £1 level stake I make notes about win percentage by course win percentage by year longest losing runs profit/loss to this time last year profit/loss on a monthly quarterly half-yearly and full yearly basis.Hope this gives some encouragement to anyone enduring a lengthy losing run.

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by scammydodger on 6 July 2014 15:24

And just a few lines about staking......Even though I bet using Betfair SP for higher returns all the results and future bets are worked out on my spreadsheet at Industry SP at level stakes but I wondered how I was going to progress - i.e. increase my stakes...... I thus hit on the idea of gradually increasing after a losing day.....Theoretically on paper I started the year with all qualifiers on day one carrying one pound.....remember that I didnt actually start betting until May.....There was only one qualifier and it lost so I upped my stakes for all qualifiers on day two to one pound and 10 pence.....There were three bets with one winner and a small profit of 83 pence.....So day three qualifiers all carried one pound and 10 pence again as I had showed a profit on day two.....The staking rule is hold on a winning day up it by 10 pence on a losing day........thus you would need ten losing days to move from an initial stake of one pound to two pounds.....This was the best way I could think of to come up with a compromise between keeping at level stakes and progressively increasing stakes......When I eventually started betting in May the stake was up to 5 pounds and 10 pence and it currently stands at 8 pounds and 10 pence.......the percentage of increase though is getting lower and lower as the stake gets bigger.......However it is important to point out that this is my personal staking plan and in no way reflects on the system stats that I update as that is using a one pound level stake at all times at Industry SP.

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by man o bong on 8 July 2014 11:04

I like you approach of minimal stake increase after a losing day - It is certainly not the first approach that comes to mind but of course,when expecting the next winners after losers, it does make some sense - I have always considered the % of bank staking as possibly flawed in making the most of the bank, and whilst it does indeed give some protection for losing runs, they come to an end just as winning ones do - I might take a look over some recent betting activity and see how it would have panned out over my valuebank selections for last seasons football

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by scammydodger on 8 July 2014 17:22

Please post your findings MOB It will be interesting to find out.....About my gradual increase betting strategy......I run the results upping by 10 pence on a winning day and holding on a losing day as well as the aforementioned that I am doing now just to see which was better before I got cracking.....The results showed very little difference with a slightly better return on increasing after a losing day which is why I adopted this strategy.....The initial 10 percent increase is OK to begin with as stakes are very low but to carry on at that level is counterproductive.......As I write there have been two more losing days thus my stake for tomorrow - the 9th - is set at £8.40 on all qualifiers which on a 10p increase is 1.2 percent......its next to nothing really.......If I am still going when I reach £25 per bet and heres hoping the percentage increase would only be 0.4 percent.

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by ShanePatro on 29 August 2014 12:26

Ive tried many a system but the problem is patience and avoiding the first inevitable bad run Australia betting websites

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